How to sound smart about politics on Thanksgiving

By Ryan Lizza , Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

President Joe Biden waves as he board Air Force One at Nantucket Memorial Airport on Nov. 28, 2021, en route to Washington. | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo

It’s one of the slowest weeks in politics as our elected leaders slip into the Thanksgiving break, when they have a chance to assess the fallout from the surprising midterm results and ponder the way forward.

President JOE BIDEN will head to Nantucket for Thanksgiving, an annual Biden family tradition stretching back to the ’70s, though the Bidens skipped a 2020 visit to the island during the pandemic. The president has said recently he would use the month between Thanksgiving and Christmas to assess his 2024 reelection plans, which, he said, is “ultimately a family decision.”

Unlike Biden, fellow octogenarians NANCY PELOSI and STENY HOYER, who already announced their retirements from leadership, can enjoy the holiday without a big decision hanging over them. When the House Dem leaders said they were stepping down, we wondered if it would have any impact on Biden’s decision. Maybe it takes the pressure off him to build that bridge to the next generation of Democrats he talked about so much in 2020? Or maybe it’s a reminder of how old he is?

Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL , another octogenarian, says he’s not going anywhere but is facing a similar generational comparison to Pelosi and Hoyer. A Washington Times headline says McConnell “defies exodus of Capitol’s oldest leaders while discontent simmers in GOP base.”

Meanwhile, House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY, who is dealing with his own base of simmering discontent in the House, will have to spend Thanksgiving plotting a path to 218 votes to become speaker. His latest bid to woo the right is to remind conservatives he wants to kick Democratic California Reps. ADAM SCHIFF and ERIC SWALWELL off the Intelligence Committee.

As you prepare your own holiday plans, you’ll probably want to be armed at the dinner table with something smart to say about the meaning of the midterms.

It is admittedly a confusing subject. There was no red wave, but Republicans flipped the House. The anti-Trump coalition that returned Pelosi to the speakership in 2018 and elected Biden in 2020 seemed to hold together for the Democrats, and yet some of the biggest gains for Republicans came among college-educated suburban women and Black and Latino voters . We have been hearing for years that politics is becoming more nationalized, partly because of the decline of local news and the rise of partisan national cable networks, but lots of midterm races turned on local issues or candidates. Ticket-splitting was said to be dead, but it was one of the most conspicuous features of the voting on Nov. 8.

But if you want to filter out a lot of the noise in the results and focus in on the signal, this morning’s Ron Brownstein piece at CNN is a good one to clip and save for Thursday.

He identifies a few key trends present in the 2022 results that tell us a lot about 2024:

• The red states are getting redder. (See the results for Gov. RON DeSANTIS in Florida or Gov. MIKE DeWINE in Ohio.)

• The blue states are getting bluer. (See Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM’s reelection in California, or what happened in Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts and Washington state.)

• The next presidential election will likely be decided by fewer voters in fewer states.

The two presidential nominees could start out in 2024 with as many as 46 states and D.C. sorted between the two parties. Brownstein argues that given recent trends, Democrats could start with a safe 260 electoral votes and Republicans with a safe 235 electoral votes. Under this scenario, longtime battleground states have become reliably red or blue. With Michigan and Pennsylvania seemingly back in Democratic hands, Florida and Ohio dominated by the GOP, sometimes-blue North Carolina out of reach for Democrats, and perennial GOP target New Hampshire out of reach for Republicans, the list of true toss-ups could be down to just four states worth 43 electoral votes: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.

The electoral college map is so closely divided that you can narrow down the decisive swing votes to a few pockets spread across those four states: “a miniscule number of people living in the tiny patches of contested political ground — white-collar suburbs of Atlanta and Phoenix, working-class Latino neighborhoods in and around Las Vegas and the mid-sized communities of the so-called BOW counties in Wisconsin.”

Of course, if this is all too boring, just ask your uncle what he thinks about ELON MUSK reinstating @realDonaldTrump. That should get the conversation going.

A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):

With much of the election cycle behind us, the next Congress can resolve current and future energy challenges by addressing the mismatch between available energy supply and growing demand that is putting upward pressure on prices. A recent Rystad study found that implementing API’s 10-Point Policy Plan could spur nearly $200 billion in direct investment, generate over 225,000 jobs by 2035, and provide consumers relief with more U.S. natural gas, oil, CCUS and hydrogen supplies.

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your own Thanksgiving tips: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .

CAN I GET ON THE LIST? — “The House Ethics Committee is investigating Carolyn Maloney for allegedly asking for an invitation to the Met Gala,” by Nicholas Wu: “Investigators alleged [Democratic N.Y. Rep. CAROLYN] MALONEY, who has been a longtime attendee of the Met Gala, had sought out an invitation for herself after being cut from the invite list in 2016. … Lawmakers are generally allowed to attend charitable gatherings for free like the Met Gala if the invitation is unsolicited. But Maloney’s efforts to get an invite could run afoul of the law.”

TEPID ON TRUMP — “Rick Perry noncommittal about Trump run: ‘Show me what you got,’” by the Texas Tribune’s Trent Brown

MUSK READ — “Elon Musk says Twitter is done with layoffs and ready to hire again,” by The Verge’s Alex Heath: “While fielding employee questions for about a half-hour from Twitter’s San Francisco headquarters, [ELON] MUSK said there are ‘no plans’ to move Twitter’s headquarters to Texas like he did with Tesla, but that it could make sense to be ‘dual-headquartered’ in California and Texas. ‘If we want to move the headquarters to Texas I think it would play into the idea that Twitter has gone from being left-wing to right-wing, which is not the case,’ he told employees. ‘This is not a right-wing takeover of Twitter. It is a moderate-wing takeover of Twitter.’”

— Related read: “The Era of ‘Stay and Fight’ Twitter Is Here,” by The Atlantic’s Kaitlyn Tiffany: “Now that Elon Musk is welcoming DONALD TRUMP Trump back to Twitter, some liberals feel they can’t leave the platform behind.”

WOWZA — “AP Fires Reporter Behind Retracted ‘Russian Missiles’ Story,” by The Daily Beast’s Corbin Bolies and Lachlan Cartwright: “The Associated Press scared much of the world last Tuesday when it alerted readers that ‘a senior U.S. intelligence official’ said ‘Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people.’ … On Monday, the AP fired JAMES LaPORTA, the investigative reporter responsible for that story, Confider has learned. The piece, which was originally co-bylined with JOHN LEICESTER (who is still working at the AP), attributed the information to a single ‘senior U.S. intelligence official,’ despite the AP’s rule that it ‘routinely seeks and requires more than one source when sourcing is anonymous.’”

SHOW ME A HERO — “Army Veteran Went Into ‘Combat Mode’ to Disarm the Club Q Gunman,” by NYT’s Dave Philipps in Colorado Springs: “RICHARD M. FIERRO was at a table in Club Q with his wife, daughter and friends on Saturday, watching a drag show, when the sudden flash of gunfire ripped across the nightclub and instincts forged during four combat deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan instantly kicked in. Fight back, he told himself, protect your people. …

“‘I don’t know exactly what I did, I just went into combat mode,’ Mr. Fierro said, shaking his head as he stood in his driveway, an American flag hanging limp in the freezing air. ‘I just know I have to kill this guy before he kills us.’ …

“It was Mr. Fierro’s first time at a drag show, and he was digging it. He had spent 15 years in the Army, and now relished his role as a civilian and a father, watching one of his daughter’s old high-school friends perform. ‘These kids want to live that way, want to have a good time, have at it,’ he said as he described the night. ‘I’m happy about it because that is what I fought for, so they can do whatever they hell they want.’”

A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):

America faces growing energy challenges. America’s energy industry has a plan to provide relief to families, strengthen national security and strengthen our economy.

POLITICO APP USERS: UPGRADE YOUR APP BY DECEMBER 19! We recently upgraded the POLITICO app with a fresh look and improved features for easier access to POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Starting December 19, users will no longer have access to the previous version of the app. Update your app today to stay on top of essential political news, insights, and analysis from the best journalists in the business. UPDATE iOS APP – UPDATE ANDROID APP .

PHOTO OF THE DAY

President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden serve food in Havelock, N.C., on Monday, Nov. 21, at a Thanksgiving dinner with members of the military and their families. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo

MORE POLITICS

IMPEACHER HANGS ON — “Rep. David Valadao wins reelection in endangered Central Valley congressional seat,” by L.A. Times’ Melanie Mason: “Central Valley Republican Rep. DAVID VALADAO, whose vote to impeach President Trump nearly sank his campaign in the primary, will return to Congress next year, after defeating Democratic state Assemblyman RUDY SALAS. The Associated Press called the race Monday, though official results will take longer. After control of the House tipped to Republicans last week, Valadao’s win and California’s two remaining congressional races are determining the size of the GOP’s majority.”

— Steve Shepard ( @POLITICO_Steve ): “Of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach then-President Trump in Jan. 2021, 2 are coming back to Congress: Reps. David Valadao (#CA22) and DAN NEWHOUSE (#WA04).”

RUNOFF REPORT — “Saturday voting upheld in Georgia U.S. Senate runoff,” by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Mark Niesse: “The Georgia Court of Appeals has denied an attempt to stop early voting on Saturday for the U.S. Senate runoff, a ruling that allows counties to open polling places after the Thanksgiving holiday. The court’s one-sentence decision Monday evening was a victory for Democratic U.S. Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK’s campaign, which along with the Democratic Party of Georgia sued to ensure the weekend voting opportunity.”

ANGST IN ARIZONA — “A second Republican-controlled Arizona county on Monday delayed certifying the results of this month’s election as a protest against voting issues in Maricopa County that some GOP officials have blamed for their losses in top races including the contest for governor,” AP’s Bob Christie reports .

— “As ballot counting wraps up, Maricopa County officials deal with state requests, outside threats,” by Arizona Republic’s Sasha Hupka

BANKS’ SHOT — Rep. JIM BANKS (R-Ind.) has his eye on a Senate seat if fellow Republican Sen. MIKE BRAUN runs for governor in 2024, Indy Politics’ Abdul Hakeem-Shabazz reports . “Banks lost the Republican caucus race to be the new Majority Whip, so sources tell us he’s ‘all in for the U.S. Senate’. Banks has been making calls and building up support. Fifth District Congresswoman VICTORIA SPARTZ is also looking at running for the Senate.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

BIDEN BATTENS DOWN — “The White House girds for combat,” by Christopher Cadelago: “With Republicans narrowly taking control of the House, and Donald Trump announcing another presidential bid, President Joe Biden and aides are moving with speed to counter an anticipated barrage of right-wing attacks. For months, White House officials have been laying plans to prepare for congressional probes and possible impeachment fights. …

“Presidential aides know they’re coming in for uncomfortable , even deeply personal, clashes over everything from the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan to migrants crossing the southern border to the Biden family itself. … But officials and others in on the planning contend the new, tougher terrain also will create opportunities to draw contrasts with political opponents whose priorities they view as outside the mainstream and, frankly, extreme.”

NIGHT OF THE HUNTER — “Copy of what's believed to be Hunter Biden's laptop data turned over by repair shop to FBI showed no tampering, analysis says,” by CBS’ Catherine Herridge and Graham Kates

TRUMP CARDS

MR. SMITH NOT YET IN WASHINGTON — “From Europe, Trump special counsel takes over Mar-a-Lago, Jan. 6 probes,” by WaPo’s Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein: “Newly appointed special counsel JACK SMITH continues to work remotely from Europe as he assembles a team, finds office space, and takes over two high-stakes investigations into former president Donald Trump — complex cases that officials insist will not be delayed by Smith’s appointment, even as they also said they do not know when he will return to the United States. Smith, a war crimes prosecutor at the International Criminal Court at The Hague, injured his leg in a recent bicycle accident and is recovering from surgery.”

TAX FRAUD TRIAL COULD WRAP SOON — “Prosecution Rests as Trump Company Trial Moves Faster Than Expected,” by NYT’s Jonah Bromwich, Lola Fadulu and William Rashbaum: “Manhattan prosecutors rested their case in the tax fraud trial of Donald J. Trump’s family business on Monday without calling a witness they had previously planned to question, an indication of confidence after the company’s longtime chief financial officer testified last week.”

The timeline: “The prosecutors’ conclusion of their case suggested that the trial, which some experts had expected to last well into December, could conclude as soon as next week, with the defense hoping that [longtime accountant DONALD] BENDER’s testimony might help tip the scales in their favor as the jury prepares to deliberate. After Tuesday, proceedings will pause for the Thanksgiving holiday, resuming Nov. 28.”

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

SEDITION STEPBACK — “Was it sedition? Jan. 6 trial a major test for Justice Dept.,” by AP’s Lindsay Whitehurst and Alanna Durkin Richer: “Jurors will begin weighing [Oath Keepers founder STEWART RHODES’] words and actions on Tuesday, after nearly two months of testimony and argument in the criminal trial of Rhodes and four co-defendants. Final defense arguments wrapped up late Monday. … The outcome could also shape the future of the Justice Department’s massive and costly prosecution of the insurrection that some conservatives have sought to portray as politically motivated.”

A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):

Nearly 9 in 10 Americans support producing energy in America vs. overseas. Policy choices matter. See our plan.

WAR IN UKRAINE

THE FUNDING FIGHT — “ Congressional Republican leaders are on track to steamroll the growing number of conservative lawmakers who want to stop funding Ukraine’s war effort, a move that’s sure to intensify the GOP divide over U.S. support for Kyiv,” Andrew Desiderio reports from Halifax, Nova Scotia . “Interviews with lawmakers who traveled here for the Halifax International Security Forum, an annual pro-democracy conference, revealed that Congress is likely to allocate well more than the $38 billion the Biden administration requested for Ukraine’s military and economic needs as part of a year-end governing funding bill. And that extra infusion is set to advance with the help of senior Republicans, even as influential conservative groups urge a pause.

“If Congress approves the White House’s request or super-sizes it , the U.S. commitment to Kyiv since Russia’s invasion began in February could top $100 billion by the end of the year — a massive sum that would throw a sharp elbow at Donald Trump-aligned Republicans who want to reevaluate U.S. policy toward Ukraine. But as questions swirl over the staying power of the Western coalition, lawmakers’ message here in Halifax was clear: Now is not the time to scale back the flow of weapons, equipment and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.”

THE VIEW FROM KYIV — “Ukraine to civilians: Leave liberated areas before winter,” by AP’s John Leicester

ON THE GROUND — “On the River at Night, Ambushing Russians,” by NYT’s Carlotta Gall: “Ukrainian units plying the Dnipro River venture behind enemy lines under the cover of darkness, carrying out reconnaissance and sabotage.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

BEND IT LIKE BLINKEN — “Antony Blinken on the Diplomatic Niceties of the Beautiful Game,” by The Atlantic’s Franklin Foer

MEDIAWATCH

DID DeSANTIS DOOM CHAPEK? — “Bob Chapek’s tenure marked by political missteps inside and outside of Disney,” by CNN’s Ramishah Maruf: “[Ousted Disney CEO BOB] CHAPEK’s downfall arose, at least in part, out of his bungled response to Florida’s controversial Parental Rights in Education bill, dubbed the ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bill by critics. His decisions had far-reaching effects on both Disney’s reputation and on the company’s “favored nation” status in the state.

“Early this year, Disney faced mounting criticism for not taking a public stance on the bill. The law bans educators from discussions about sexual orientation and gender identity in some classrooms. Chapek ended up igniting a political firestorm — despite his initial efforts to keep the company out of politics. (Iger had publicly condemned the bill on Twitter).”

— Related read: “Iger’s Sudden Return to Disney Shocks a Discontented Kingdom,” by NYT’s Brooks Barnes, Benjamin Mullin and James Stewart

POST POLITICS — “Fred Ryan’s Re-Election,” by Puck’s Dylan Byers: “Today, questions about [WaPo publisher FRED] RYAN’s leadership have become a widespread talking point at the Post. As I reported earlier this week, a familiar complaint inside the building is that, indeed, Ryan didn’t move aggressively enough to capitalize on the paper’s success during the Trump era, and that he doesn’t have what it takes to build out a robust subscription business. And, as I reported, these frustrations go all the way to the top of the newsroom.

“In private conversations with colleagues and friends, [executive editor SALLY] BUZBEE has criticized Ryan’s lack of strategy around editorial and digital investments, and the company’s inability to grow the business through M&A, sources who have spoken to her told me. She is said to be envious of the Times’ aggressive acquisition strategy, including its purchase of Wordle. And, most notably, she has told colleagues that she doesn’t know how long Ryan will, or should, remain as C.E.O., though she categorically denied this on the record in a brief chat with me earlier this week.”

GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our “Future Pulse” newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE .

Marjorie Taylor Greene is back on Twitter .

Peter Thiel-financed anti-woke bank GloriFi is shutting down .

Dupont Circle was full of World Cup revelers on Monday. (We imagine the scene was quite different when Wales notched a late equalizer.)

SPOTTED at Joe’s during lunchtime on Monday: Guster lead singer (and occasional contributor to The Atlantic) Ryan Miller celebrating his 50th birthday with Robert Costa, Jeffrey Goldberg, Alex Edelman and Robyn Kanner.

STAFFING UP — Jenna Valle-Riestra is now a spokesperson at Treasury. She previously was press secretary for the Senate Judiciary Committee under Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). … Jeremy Bernton is now White House liaison at State. He most recently was executive secretary at USAID.

ENGAGED — Tiffany Haas, labor policy adviser for Senate HELP Committee Dems, and Nick Silverman, data and polling director for the NRSC, got engaged this weekend at the reflecting pool. Pic

WEDDING — Parker Van de Water, government coordinator at the Kennedy Center and a House Appropriations alum, and Patrick Maillet, a lawyer with Legal Services in D.C. and a Betty McCollom alum, recently got married at Airlie in Warrenton, Va. The two met while working on the Hill in 2018. Pic … Another pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Alicia Daugherty, a VP at digital therapeutics company Woebot Health, and Dan Diamond, a health reporter at WaPo, on Nov. 15 welcomed Dash David Diamond, who came in at 6 lbs. Pic … Another pic

— Nick Calderon, senior manager at Narrative Strategies, and Jackie Calderon, operations manager at Lawler, Metzger, Keeney & Logan LLC, welcomed their first child, Catherine Joan “CJ” Calderon, on Nov. 9.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield (7-0) … U.S. Ambassador to the Netherlands Shefali Razdan Duggal … Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) … NBC’s Scott Wong … State’s Ned Price (4-0) … POLITICO’s Timothy Francois … CNN’s Cassie Spodak … Rob Atkinson of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation … CBS’s Matthew Mosk … Jacob Wood … Brunswick Group’s Robert Christie … Annie Shoup … Meghan Dugan … James Williams of Arnold Ventures … Lauren Reamy of Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) office … Meena Ganesan … TheSkimm’s Jessica Turtletaub … Tim R. Cohen … former Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-N.Y.) … Maggie Madsen … Bettina Inclán-Agen … Tim Cameron of FlexPoint Media … THE CITY NY’s Harry Siegel … Andy Stern … Donny Deutsch … Alessandra Grabowski

Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):

As record-high inflation and geopolitical instability hit family budgets from coast to coast, Americans need long-term solutions to provide real relief from the current energy crisis. API's 10-Point Policy Plan provides a roadmap for a new era of American energy leadership that recognizes our nation's abundant resources, supports energy investment, creates access and keeps regulation from unnecessarily restricting energy growth. New analysis shows that these proposed policies could strengthen American energy security, create hundreds of thousands of jobs, and generate nearly $200 billion in direct investment.

Follow us on Twitter

Rachael Bade @rachaelmbade Eugene Daniels @EugeneDaniels2 Ryan Lizza @RyanLizza

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family

Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook

View all our political and policy newsletters

Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to .