Speaker McCarthy's first governing test

By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Newly-elected Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy talks to reporters after a contentious battle to lead the GOP majority in the 118th Congress at the Capitol on Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023. | AP

THE LATEST FROM BRAZIL:

• Brazilian police have cleared protesters from government offices after supporters of former Brazilian President JAIR BOLSONARO stormed Brazil’s congressional building, Supreme Court and presidential palace one week after President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA’s inauguration. More from Olivia Olander and Nahal Toosi … AP: “Brazil authorities seek to punish pro-Bolsonaro rioters” … CNN: At least 12 journalists attacked
• JOE BIDEN statement: “I condemn the assault on democracy and on the peaceful transfer of power in Brazil. Brazil’s democratic institutions have our full support and the will of the Brazilian people must not be undermined. I look forward to continuing to work with @LulaOficial.”
• Congressional Democrats are pressing Republicans to condemn the attack. House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES called it “a sad but familiar sight,” while some in the rank-and-file are calling on the U.S. to extradite Bolsonaro from Florida. Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY and Senate GOP Leader MITCH McCONNELL have not yet released statements.
• VP KAMALA HARRIS will swear in ELIZABETH BAGLEY as the new ambassador to Brazil at 3:45 p.m. We’ll be looking to see if either Harris or Bagley address the attacks in Brasilia.

IT BEGINS — The rules package that will govern how the House operates this session is scheduled for a vote this evening. It’s shaping up as McCarthy’s first big test in governing what is shaping up to be an ungovernable Republican majority.

The package is the closest thing to a contract drawn up between McCarthy and his internal critics. Alongside various side deals dealing with committee assignments, budget policy and other matters, the rules changes define the devolution of power away from leadership and towards the House Freedom Caucus. If tonight’s vote goes down, the entire project unravels.

McCarthy originally wanted to push the deal through the House immediately after members were sworn in on Saturday — the more scrutiny the rules package received the more difficult it would be to pass. But the late-breaking floor drama prompted a change of plans (and averted the hypocrisy of passing a package that includes a 72-hour-review rule for legislation just a few hours after it was revised.)

McCarthy can only lose four votes. Amid all the chaos on Friday, Rep. TONY GONZALES (R-Tex.) announced that he would oppose the rules package. His comments didn’t get much attention amid all the floor drama. But Gonzales popped up on the Sunday shows to reiterate that he’s serious.

He zeroed in on defense spending as the reason for his opposition.

Among those side deals McCarthy cut was an agreement for the House to take up a 10-year budget that caps spending at 2022 levels, which would amount to a 10% decrease in defense spending. While that promise is not codified in the rules package itself, Gonzales argued that the package is still the roadmap for slashing Pentagon funding that would weaken American security.

“This has a proposed billions of dollar cut to defense, which I think is a horrible idea,” Gonzales told CBS News’s Margaret Brennan. “When you have aggressive Russia and Ukraine, you've got a growing threat of China in the Pacific — you know, I'm going to visit Taiwan here in a couple of weeks — how am I going to look at our allies in the eye and say, I need you to increase your defense budget, but yet America is going to decrease ours?”

McCarthy ally Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) did little to allay such concerns. He said Sunday that “everything has to be on the table” and zeroed in on defense, including aid to Ukraine. “Frankly, we’d better look at the money we send to Ukraine as well and say, ‘How can we best spend the money to protect America?’”Jordan (R-Ohio) told Fox News.

Other Republicans are also taking a closer look at the public details of what McCarthy gave away to the far right in order to secure the speakership — and are wondering what else he might have promised privately.

Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) told Brennan that she’s “on the fence” on the rules package. “I don't want to see defense cuts,” she added. “We don't know what deals were made.”

To be sure, there’s no sign the rules vote is in as dire shape for McCarthy as his speaker hopes appeared a week ago. After spending their first week in the majority in chaos, his rank-and-file is eager to get down to business.

Gonzales made it clear he’s not “whipping” others to vote against the package, and Mace is a McCarthy stalwart who would be loath to humiliate him on his first day running the place. But watch today for others to make noise and perhaps win some commitments of their own from the new speaker — especially defense hawks and Biden-district reps who decide they can’t endorse the McCarthy-HFC pact.

They are getting backup from the WSJ editorial page. A scathing piece this morning — “Defense Is Now a Republican Target” — channels the sentiment of the hawks and argues that “Kevin McCarthy put the U.S. military on the budget block.”

“The reality is that if defense is cut, what will go first is spending for operations and maintenance to sustain military readiness, as well as money for the weapons to deter China,” the Journal’s editors write. “If the GOP rebels honor their demand for ‘regular order,’ defense hawks may have more votes. But it’s worrisome that some Republicans are joining the progressive calls to shrink the military when the world grows more dangerous.”

Previewing the coming war within the House GOP over spending, Gonzales was blunt: “It's gonna be ugly.”

Related reads:

— “McCarthy Confronts Next Test After Bruising House Speaker Fight,” by Bloomberg’s Billy House and Laura Litvan

— “House Republicans Turn Focus to Spending, China After Dramatic Speaker Vote,” by WSJ’s Nick Timiraos

— “Republicans Prepare New Rules, but Fixing Congress Isn’t So Easy,” by NYT’s Carl Hulse, including a timely history lesson on what happened when Democrats promised “regular order” on spending bills in 2007

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your rules package vote predictions: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

A message from Instagram:

Parents have support when it comes to keeping their teens safe on Instagram.

How: Once supervision on Family Center is set up, parents can see who their teen follows, who follows them and any reports their teen shares.

Set up Family Center today.

JUST POSTED — The Washington Monthly has a big new package of essays that just went live. Editor in Chief Paul Glastris writes in to Playbook explaining the magazine’s ambitious plan for 2023: “It's basically the launch of a yearlong effort to define a new American political/economic philosophy to take the place of the so-called ‘neoliberal’ (in the European, not the CHARLIE PETERS, sense) paradigm that both parties, to one extent or another, are moving away from.”

A message from Instagram:

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

A protester, supporter of Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro, is confronted by a police phalanx after demonstrators stormed the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023. | Eraldo Peres/AP Photo

ALL POLITICS

HERE COMES SANDERS — New Arkansas Gov.-elect SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS says she wants to focus on her state, not national politics, as she prepares to be sworn in Tuesday, AP’s Andrew DeMillo reports from Little Rock. Sanders’ top priorities include education, tax cuts and public safety — and she has flush state coffers and an expanded GOP supermajority to work with. Notably, her No. 1 bill includes a teacher pay raise. “Sanders sought advice from her father and others, and said she plans to be hands-on while dealing with the Legislature.”

HERE COMES KEMP — As he begins a second term, Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP is “done being underestimated,” AP’s Jeff Amy and Bill Barrow report from Atlanta. “Having vanquished both a DONALD TRUMP-backed Republican challenger and Democratic star STACEY ABRAMS to win reelection, Kemp is looking to expand his influence in his second term, free from the caricature of the gun-toting, pickup-driving, migrant-catching country boy that emerged during his first campaign for governor. … He hasn’t ruled out running for the U.S. Senate in 2026 or even seeking the White House.“

“Democrats’ 2023 Trump-country test,” Axios

THE WHITE HOUSE

POTUS ON THE ROAD — Biden finally went to the border Sunday, visiting the most heavily trafficked port in El Paso, Texas, and meeting with law enforcement, migrant services workers and business leaders. He heard pleas for more resources and met with Gov. GREG ABBOTT. It wasn’t clear if he actually met with any migrants, though. Walking along the border wall and talking with local officials, Biden vowed to reporters that the resources would come, report Michael Collins and Lauren Villagran for the El Paso Times and USA Today. Abbott directly gave Biden a letter blaming him for problems at the border.

— THE NEXT PHASE: “Migration issues cast long shadow over Biden’s visit to ‘3 Amigos’ summit,” by Myah Ward and Jonathan Lemire in Mexico City: “Biden will be the first U.S. president to visit Mexico since Barack Obama in 2014. … [W]hile Biden has met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau repeatedly, he’s spent far less time with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, which has only added to the feeling in Latin America of being snubbed by the United States. That has added another layer of pressure to this week’s long-awaited gathering.”

— MEXICAN CONTEXT: “Mexico’s delicate dance with democracy,” by the Deseret News’ Samuel Benson in Mexico City: “Biden visits Mexico this week. Will he find a reliable partner, or a country in crisis?”

CONGRESS

WHAT McCARTHY PROMISED — Rep. BYRON DONALDS (R-Fla.) said on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” that he’s getting a spot on the Steering Committee in exchange for backing McCarthy for speaker.

THE NEW MAJORITY — Republicans’ expected new subcommittee investigating national security and law enforcement agencies seems to be headed for explosive political and legal fights, NYT’s Charlie Savage and Luke Broadwater preview. Democrats are already calling it a partisan effort driven by baseless conspiracy theories about politicized law enforcement. But Rep. Jim Jordan’spanel could have significant subpoena powers and the ability to receive highly sensitive intelligence. One big and revealing question will be which lawmakers Republicans select to serve on the subcommittee.

ALL GOOD — Reps. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) and MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) seem to have patched things up. Gaetz said he forgave Rogers for aggressively confronting him on the House floor last week, and Rogers responded, “I regret that I briefly lost my temper on the House Floor Friday evening and appreciate Matt’s kind understanding.”

CLICKER — “Kevin McCarthy, the view from home,” CNN, with with high-school yearbook pic and other photos from the future speaker’s youth

GLIMMER OF BIPARTISANSHIP — Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) told The Daily Beast’s Mike Brunker in Las Vegas that he sees openings for this Congress to pass bills related to the “technology arms race with China,” and possibly around social media regulation. Warner says a full TikTok ban is unlikely, but he foresees some legislation related to the app.

EXIT INTERVIEW — Sen. BEN SASSE (R-Neb.) officially left Congress on Sunday to head to the University of Florida. On his way out of Washington, he reflected to the Omaha World-Herald’s Henry Cordes about his satisfying work on the Intelligence Committee, his failed efforts to repeal Obamacare, polarization, the accomplishments he’s proudest of and his relationship with Trump. “Just at a human level, I’m sad for him to be that needy and desperate,” Sasse said of the former president. “But at a policy level, I always loved that he kept his word on the judges.”

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

ICYMI — “High Point’s Controversial New Law Dean Speaks (Sort Of),” by The Assembly’s Melanie Sill and Pam Kelley: “MARK MARTIN has not yet answered questions publicly about his role in former President Donald Trump’s efforts to reverse the 2020 election results. But in a statement responding to The Assembly’s inquiries, the former chief justice of the N.C. Supreme Court defended himself against the backlash to his appointment, saying he has accepted the 2020 outcome and hopes ‘that reasonable people will take a close look at my career and not rush to judgment based on media reports (whether positive or negative).’”

POLICY CORNER

THE DOCTOR IS IN — “The fight over how to deliver bad news to patients,” by Ben Leonard: “Congress was full of good intentions when it directed the Department of Health and Human Services to make sure patients get their test results as soon as they’re available. But the implementation of that directive has set off a battle … [P]atients are now receiving news about potentially terminal disease, or other, less catastrophic but confusing, test results from patient portals before [doctors] have a chance to explain them. The American Medical Association is pressing the department to revise its rules, and the trade group for physicians is finding allies in state legislatures. But patient advocates, and HHS, say patients should, and can, decide.”

A message from Instagram:

MUSK READS

“Battle to dethrone Tesla heats up just as Musk is distracted by Twitter,” WaPo

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

FROM RUSSIA, WITH LOVE — “Russia’s Wagner group ramping up operations outside of Ukraine, U.S. warns," by Erin Banco: “Top U.S. officials are increasingly tracking the movements and efforts of a Russian private military group outside of Ukraine as Moscow continues to use the organization to launch influence operations in Africa and Europe. … U.S. officials are also gathering intelligence related to the group’s activities in countries such as the Central African Republic, Mali and Serbia, according to cables obtained by POLITICO.”

ANNALS OF DIPLOMACY — When Kishida visits the White House on Friday, it will be part of a big tour of the West covering everything from semiconductors to North Korea, Reuters’ Elaine Lies and Tim Kelly report from Tokyo. The talks with Biden will especially focus on defense issues after Japan has recently beefed up its military spending.

WAR REPORT — A 28-year-old Alabama-raised woman who joined the Islamic State, now in custody in Syria, wants to come back to the U.S. and be a voice against the extremists, she told The News Movement. HODA MUTHANA says she was brainwashed and will serve time behind bars in the U.S. if she must. U.S. officials and courts have declined to reinstate her citizenship and allow her back into the country. “That has left her and her son languishing in a detention camp in northern Syria housing thousands of widows of Islamic State fighters and their children,” per the AP.

“Thousands of Cubans flock to Florida Keys in massive immigration surge,” Washington Examiner

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

GOP’S NEW CULTURE WAR FRONT — In several red states, Republican legislators and oversight boards are considering moves to undercut tenure for university professors, taking on what they view as excessively liberal campus cultures, AP’s Heather Hollingsworth reports from Mission, Kan. “The opposition to tenure has united conservatives for different reasons.” It’s not just the culture wars: Declining state funding also makes slashing tenured roles a financial imperative for some universities, and a plum target for fiscal conservatives.

SHARING IS CARING — Amid the House turmoil, the AP’s Julie Carr Smyth and Mark Scolforo take a deeper dive into the “host of creative — if yet untested — solutions” that closely split legislatures in New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania have embraced in recent weeks. “The approaches differ by state: a delicate working agreement here, a bipartisan truce there. ‘The commonality is the standing on the edge of the precipice,’ said DAVID NIVEN, an associate professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati.”

“With new storms set to batter California, Newsom seeks urgent federal help,” L.A. Times

“‘I Don’t Get Lost Anymore’: Migrants in New York Struggle, and Settle In,” NYT

MEDIAWATCH 

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Phoenix Police Investigate Their Detention of a Wall Street Journal Reporter,” NYT’s Livia Albeck-Ripka: “The Phoenix Police Department has opened an internal investigation into the detainment of a Wall Street Journal reporter who was conducting interviews outside a Chase Bank in November. … [DION RABOUIN’s] detainment occurred on Nov. 23 but gained widespread attention after the television station ABC15 reported on the episode on Wednesday.”

POLITICO’s exclusive interview with Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi will take place on Thursday, January 19 at 1:30 PM EST – live from the Davos mountaintop. Register today to join us online.

Prince Harry has a lot to say.

IN MEMORIAM — “Bernard Kalb, Veteran Foreign Correspondent, Is Dead at 100,” by NYT’s Dennis Hevesi: “Kalb, a veteran correspondent for CBS, NBC and The New York Times who also made a brief and unhappy foray into government as a State Department spokesman, died on Sunday … In his many years on television, Mr. Kalb’s sonorous voice, thick eyebrows and command of detail became familiar to millions of viewers. He covered wars, revolutions and the diplomatic breakthroughs that presaged the end of the Cold War.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Henry Connelly is joining Precision as an SVP in the comms practice. He most recently was comms director for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, for whom he worked for nine years.

— Jacky Usyk will be the next executive director of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. She previously was director of leadership operations for Assistant Senate Democratic Leader Patty Murray (D-Wash.).

— Joel Payne will be chief comms officer at MoveOn. He most recently was managing director of comms and research for the Hub Project and is a CBS News political contributor.

TRANSITIONS — Mallory Rascher Cogar is now deputy director of operations for the House Oversight Republicans. She previously was a scheduler for Rep. Greg Pence (R-Ind.), and is an NSC, DHS, Ken Cuccinelli and Mark Meadows alum. … Helen Kalla is now a senior director in the comms practice at Lot Sixteen. She most recently was deputy comms director at the DCCC. … Madison White is now press secretary for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. She previously was press secretary for Democracy for America. …

… Alane Dent is joining CUNA Mutual Group as VP of corporate and legislative affairs. She previously was founder and president for Dent Strategies, and is an American Council of Life Insurers alum. … John Lee is now legislative director for Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.). He previously was senior policy adviser for Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.). … Jessica Giroux is joining the American Securities Association as general counsel and head of fixed income policy. She previously was director of government and public affairs at the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Playbook’s own Raghu Manavalan … Linda Greenhouse … Brooke Brower … Pamela Walsh … U.N. Development Programme’s Sarah Jackson-Han … Richard Fontaine … NPR’s Kenya Young … Fred Wertheimer … Don Kent of the Nickles Group … Tasha Hendershot … Luke Holland … Richard Fowler … AARP’s Jodi Sakol … Deana Bass Williams … Dan Black … Facebook’s Diana Doukas … Jessica Medeiros Garrison … Colin Campbell of Yahoo News … Sam Arora … Joe Onek of the Raben Group … former Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Mass.) … Al Felzenberg … Peter Edelman of Georgetown Law … former Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin … Tim Punke of Monument Advocacy … Raman Kaur of the Brookings Institution … American Institute for Economic Research’s William Ruger … Scott Dacey of Pace Government Relations … Elizabeth Caputo … Larry Sandigo … Isabelle Solomon … Ron Castleman … Richard Neffson … PBS’ Kristin Lehner …

Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

A message from Instagram:

Teens' experiences on Instagram should be positive and supportive.

That’s why we have tools to help teens see less sensitive content and help them spend less time on our platform.

Learn more about our tools and set them up today.

Follow us on Twitter

Rachael Bade @rachaelmbade Eugene Daniels @EugeneDaniels2 Ryan Lizza @RyanLizza

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family

Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook

View all our political and policy newsletters

Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to .