Why you shouldn't expect much from the Biden-McCarthy summit

By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) speaks at a news conference in Statuary Hall of the U.S. Capitol Building on January 12, 2023 in Washington, DC. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — ENGAGED: Rep. STENY HOYER (D-Md.) and ELAINE KAMARCK, senior fellow in governance studies and founding director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institution. They are planning to get married later this year, Playbook has learned.

SHE’S RUNNING — The Post and Courier: “Cementing what has been in the works for months, former South Carolina Gov. NIKKI HALEY will formally announce she is running for president and will seek the Republican nomination for her party’s 2024 ticket, The Post and Courier has learned.

“According to an invitation soon going out to her backers, Haley’s advertised ‘special announcement’ will come Feb. 15 at the The Shed at the Charleston Visitor Center, a downtown gathering spot that could draw hundreds of supporters into the heart of the city’s tourism district.

“The confirmation she is entering the race came Jan. 31 from a member of Haley’s inner circle.”

WHEN JOE MEETS KEVIN — JOE BIDEN and KEVIN McCARTHY are scheduled to meet today in the Oval Office at 3:15 p.m.

Keep your expectations in check. 

“Boring,” a top White House official said, when we asked about the first one-on-one session between the president and new House speaker. “First meeting of a hundred to follow.”

McCarthy has set a similarly low bar. “I think the first thing he should do,” McCarthy told reporters on Tuesday, “especially as president of the United States, is say he’s willing to sit down and find a common ground and negotiate together.”

The White House released a memo setting its own limited priorities for the meeting, saying Biden will pose two questions to McCarthy today:

• “Will the Speaker commit to the bedrock principle that the United States will never default on its financial obligations…?”
• “When will Speaker McCarthy and House Republicans release their Budget?”

The two men don’t have much history together.

McCarthy is mentioned only once in Biden’s memoir. “I got hold of the Republicans’ new House majority leader to invite him to a breakfast at the Naval Observatory, where the two of us could sit in private and talk about where we might find some ground for cooperation on the budget, or infrastructure spending, or immigration legislation,” Biden wrote of an invitation he extended in early 2015. “I had worked hard to develop a relationship with Majority Leader ERIC CANTOR, but now that Eric had lost his seat, I had to start over with Kevin McCarthy.”

Not much came of that effort. As 2015 rolled on, McCarthy became focused on becoming speaker and Biden became focused on becoming president. Biden was grappling with the illness and then death of his son BEAU, and he was squeezed out of the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries by HILLARY CLINTON’s decision to run. McCarthy was dealing with gossip about his personal life and was squeezed out of the speakership and replaced by PAUL RYAN.

While Biden is 22 years older than McCarthy, it seemed as if each man had reached the peak of his career as No. 2 and could never ascend to the top job. There were obvious similarities: two men of Irish ancestry with chips on their shoulders who are frequently underestimated.

Both men would be loath to admit they share much with the other. Their mutual antipathy is well-known in Washington. Bob Woodward and Robert Costa captured it well in a scene in their book, “Peril,” describing McCarthy talking to House GOP colleagues weeks after the 2020 presidential election:

“McCarthy was pessimistic about any relationship with Biden. ‘He's a Senate man. He's always going to go to the Senate.’ Biden had not called him yet, McCarthy noted, although several allies told him his refusal to acknowledge Biden as president-elect was the reason. Nothing personal.”

For Biden’s first two years, when NANCY PELOSI was speaker, Biden had enough trouble wrangling House Democrats to support his agenda. McCarthy was irrelevant. And when it took McCarthy 15 ballots and four excruciating days to be elected in her place, Biden was unimpressed.

“Look at what the present leader of the Republican Party — a decent man, I think, McCarthy — look — look what he had to do,” Biden told donors Tuesday afternoon at a DNC fundraiser in Manhattan. “He had to make commitments that are just absolutely off the wall for a speaker of the House to make in terms of being able to become the leader.”

Biden is betting that those off-the-wall promises are impossible to keep. The White House strategy, therefore, is patience. House Republicans are divided, and Biden’s team believes McCarthy is unlikely to craft a budget plan that can secure 218 votes given the internal contradictions within his conference among libertarians, defense hawks, and moderates representing Biden districts. McCarthy’s effort to do so will be wrenching and instructive, they believe, and will shape the contours of the debate as the debt ceiling deadline approaches in early summer.

Between now and then Biden will deliver the State of the Union address, release his budget, and (likely) announce his reelection. McCarthy, meanwhile, will have several committees revving up investigations of Biden, his son HUNTER, and several administration policies, all of which will affect this new relationship.

They are a long way from any deal, in other words, and everyone is right to keep expectations for today’s meeting exceedingly low.

— Related reads: “House GOP sets its expectations low for McCarthy-Biden debt meeting,” by Sarah Ferris, Olivia Beavers and Caitlin Emma … “In Debt Limit Fight, Republicans Won’t Say What Spending Cuts They Want,” by NYT’s Alan Rappeport … “How a group of Democrats and Republicans could bypass McCarthy and lift the debt ceiling,” by Fox News’s Chad Pergram

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your favorite Joe and Kevin anecdotes: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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JUST POSTED — “Bias and Human Error Played Parts in F.B.I.’s Jan. 6 Failure, Documents Suggest,” by NYT’s Adam Goldman and Alan Feuer: “Days before the end of the 2020 presidential race, a team of F.B.I. analysts tried to game out the worst potential outcomes of a disputed election. But of all the scenarios they envisioned, the one they never thought of was the one that came to pass: a violent mob mobilizing in support of former President DONALD J. TRUMP.“

FEC WRAPUP — Midnight was the year-end reporting deadline for congressional and presidential campaigns, and Playbook spotted a few fascinating tidbits in the flood of last-minute filings:

• Retirement watch is now in overdrive for Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-Calif.) after she raised a mere $558 in Q4, and it’s certainly gearing up for Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), who raised less than $30,000. (h/t Matt Holt)
• Leading the 2024 Senate class, meanwhile, were RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) with $3.4 million raised on the quarter, JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.) with $1.5 million and TED CRUZ (R-Texas) with $1.2 million. The overall fattest campaigns accounts, however, belonged to two independents: BERNIE SANDERS ($9.7 million) and KYRSTEN SINEMA ($8.2 million). (h/t Rob Pyers)
• Hoya Saxa: Former Sen. RICHARD SHELBY (R-Ala.) disbursed $4 million in unused funds to Georgetown University, where his wife ANNETTE is professor emerita. (h/t Jake Sherman)
• Trump's Save America PAC spent $16 million for the year on lawyers and $152,000 on “strategy consulting” from HERVÉ PIERRE BRAILLARD, former hairdresser to MELANIA TRUMP. (h/t Rob Pyers)

Related reads: “How Trump’s legal expenses consumed GOP donor money,” by WaPo’s Isaac Stanley-Becker and Josh Dawsey … “Donald Trump’s 2024 Campaign Fundraising Starts Slowly,” by WSJ’s Chad Day and Alex Leary

ROOTING FOR THE ANTI-HERO — Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) spoke to our colleagues for The POLITICO Show on Snapchat to talk about how the Ticketmaster hearing came about on the heels of a debacle that left thousands of TAYLOR SWIFT fans without tickets. Klobuchar also revealed a new detail about Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah): “His daughter actually sent him a text, the conservative senator from Utah, and said: ‘Dad, if you don’t do something about this, I’m going to call Amy Klobuchar directly.’” Watch The POLITICO Show on Snapchat

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JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Workers listen as President Joe Biden speaks at the construction site of the Hudson Tunnel Project in New York, Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2023, during an event on infrastructure. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

ALL POLITICS

OOPS, I DID IT AGAIN — “Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again,” by Holly Otterbein, Burgess Everett and Ally Mutnick: “The possibility of [KARI] LAKE and [BLAKE] MASTERS entering the political waters once more is complicating the newfound optimism GOP officials felt about capitalizing on Sinema’s recent party switch to independent.”

DRAWING THE BATTLE LINES — “Trump big money machine prepares for battle with DeSantis, other rivals,” by Alex Isenstadt: “The operatives running former President Donald Trump’s cash-flush super PAC met quietly in December to sketch out their lines of attack against Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS and other potential GOP rivals — the latest indication that the slow-burning 2024 primary is beginning to intensify.”

— Related read: “‘Can't lose’: How Trump plans to use the debt ceiling fight to ding DeSantis,” by the Washington Examiner’s Christian Datoc

TRUMP’S LONG SHADOW — “GOP report shows plan to ramp up focus on disproven election fraud claims,” by WaPo’s Amy Gardner and Isaac Arnsdorf

HEADS UP — “Matt Schlapp accuser files a second suit against top conservative operative,” by Natalie Allison: “CAROLINE WREN, who most recently ran HARMEET DHILLON’s campaign for RNC chair and Lake’s run for governor, was sued Tuesday in D.C.’s federal district court, according to a complaint obtained by POLITICO.”

CONGRESS

WHAT ELSE TO WATCH TODAY — “House GOP leaps headlong into divisive Mayorkas impeachment debate,” by Jordain Carney: “Republicans will start laying the groundwork on two tracks this week to potentially impeach [DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO] MAYORKAS over his handling of the border — a historically rare step that hasn’t been used against a Cabinet member since 1876.”

STANDING FIRM — “Omar, now a Dem unifier, faces down her GOP critics,” by Nicholas Wu: “With what she sees as some of her most important work on the Hill under threat, [Minnesota Rep. ILHAN] OMAR’s fellow Democrats are rallying around her and looking past the previous controversies, including members who once criticized her. … Asked about her Democratic support in a Tuesday interview with POLITICO, Omar responded with the advice she said her father used to give: ‘It’s hard to hate up close.’”

— Looks like they got the votes: “Republicans set to oust Rep. Omar from Foreign Affairs panel,” by AP’s Lisa Mascaro and Kevin Freking

LOOKING IN THE MIRROR — “GOP Chair Wants to Probe COVID Loans — He Might Start at Home,” by the Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger

THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS — “Meet The Man Behind George Santos,” by Talking Points Memo’s Hunter Walker: “As he watched Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-NY) become consumed by scandal, VISH BURRA knew he wanted in. … ‘Of course,’ Burra said during a phone call on Friday evening. ‘That’s my brand.’”

— “Promised green cards, catfishing, threats: How George Santos' ex-boyfriends say they were left feeling trapped, manipulated,” by ABC’s Will Steakin

— “George Santos’s Treasurer Has Resigned. So Who’s Handling the Money?” by NYT’s Grace Ashford and Michael Gold

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — “‘They come to me’: Jane Roberts’ legal recruiting work involved officials whose agencies had cases before the Supreme Court,” by Hailey Fuchs and Josh Gerstein: “JANE ROBERTS, the wife of Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS, acknowledges having represented a wide variety of public officials — including senior Justice Department officials and Cabinet members — as they transitioned to jobs in the private sector, according to testimony in an arbitration hearing to resolve a lawsuit filed by an ex-colleague against her former legal recruiting business. …

“The complaint, a copy of which was obtained by POLITICO, accuses the chief justice of failing to acknowledge the full extent of his wife’s work in his ethical disclosures, presenting her as a salaried employee of her firm rather than one who receives commissions from law firms, some of which have cases before the Supreme Court.”

POLICY CORNER

WILLOW PROJECT UPDATE — "Administration Expected to Endorse Limited Drilling in Alaska Project," by NYT's Lisa Friedman

WHAT TO READ BEFORE THE FED MEETING —  “Wall Street bets Powell will flinch on rate hikes once job market sours,” by Victoria Guida … “Cooler Pay Gains Add to Debate on When Fed Might Pause Rate Hikes,” by WSJ’s Gabriel Rubin and Nick Timiraos

FED UP — “Fed Tightens Rules to Limit Its Employees’ Political Advocacy,” by Bloomberg’s Craig Torres: “The code of conduct, as updated in late 2022, now explicitly prohibits the kind of activity engaged in by Minneapolis Fed President NEEL KASHKARI, who teamed up in 2020 with retired Minnesota Supreme Court Justice ALAN PAGE to propose an amendment to the state constitution that said quality public school education was a ‘fundamental right.’”

RACIAL RECKONING — “Black Americans Are Much More Likely to Face Tax Audits, Study Finds,” by NYT’s Jim Tankersley

THE CRYPTO CRISIS — “The Brothers Bankman-Fried,” by Puck’s Theodore Schleifer: “GABE BANKMAN-FRIED rode his brother’s reputation, and moolah, to political-donor stardom. Can he survive Sam’s fall?”

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Learn more about API’s plan to Make, Move and Improve American energy.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

ON THE EDGE OF DEMOCRACY — “In Haiti, gangs take control as democracy withers,” by AP’s Megan Janetsky and Pierre Richard Luxama in Port-au-Prince, Haiti … “4 key suspects in Haiti presidential slaying in U.S. custody,” by AP’s Dánica Coto in San Juan, Puerto Rico

ON THE GROUND — “Seeing a Prize, Russia Inundates a Ukraine City With Troops,” by NYT’s Matthew Mpoke Bigg and Thomas Gibbons-Neff: “Bakhmut and the areas around it have become a center of intense fighting, with growing importance as both sides add forces to the battle.”

GETTING ISRAEL — “Netanyahu says don’t get ‘hung up’ on peace with Palestinians first,” by CNN’s Tara John and Rob Picheta

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE LATEST IN MEMPHIS — “Memphis to Gather in Grief at Tyre Nichols’s Funeral,“ by NYT’s Rick Rojas … “Tyre Nichols beating raises scrutiny on ‘elite’ police units,” by AP’s Claudia Lauer

TRAGEDY AVERTED — “Omaha police officer kills gunman shooting AR-15 at west Omaha Target store,” by the Omaha World-Herald’s Alia Conley and Christopher Burbach

DeSANTIS DOWNLOAD — “DeSantis targets ‘ideological’ programs in proposed university changes,” by Andrew Atterbury … “DeSantis Takes On the Education Establishment, and Builds His Brand,” by NYT’s Stephanie Saul, Patricia Mazzei and Trip Gabriel

VALLEY TALK

MUSK READS — “Musk blows off Dems in first Capitol tour as Twitter CEO,” by Rebecca Kern and Nicholas Wu: “In Congress, all his scheduled meetings were with Republicans. An encounter with Rep. HAKEEM JEFFRIES — the House minority leader — that he touted in a tweet, was actually an unscheduled run-in, according to Jeffries’ office. McCarthy says he met ELON MUSK to discuss making Twitter 'fair on all sides.' Democrats, for their part, still want to hear from him, even as they don’t put much faith in their Republican colleagues to hold him accountable.”

— “Tesla Investors Lost $12 Billion After Musk Tweet, Jury Is Told,” by Bloomberg’s Joel Rosenblatt … “Tesla Confirms Justice Department Request for Autopilot Documents,” by WSJ’s Joseph De Avila and Rebecca Elliott

DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID.

Joe Biden will get his yearly physical next week.

Boris Johnson was spotted roaming the halls of Congress.

Donald Trump trolled Ron DeSantis over his previous admiration of Paul Ryan.

James Dolan has hired Hope Hicks.

IN MEMORIAM — “Longtime Republican U.S. Sen. Dave Durenberger dies at 88,” by the Star Tribune’s Rochelle Olson: “Dave Durenberger, who served 16 years in the U.S. Senate as a moderate Republican and championed affordable health care, the Boundary Waters and the Americans with Disabilities Act, died Tuesday. He was 88. His son Dave Durenberger Jr. said his father declined in the past two weeks and died at his St. Paul home.”

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party Monday night for Mike Pompeo’s new book, “Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love” ($26.39), hosted by Wayne Berman at the Metropolitan Club: Bill Barr, Bob Kimmitt, UAE Ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba, Saudi Ambassador Princess Reema Bandar Al Saud, Jordanian Ambassador Dina Kawar, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Roy Blunt, Kellyanne Conway, Sheikha Rima al-Sabah, Jim Richardson, Marc Short, Bobby Kotick, Brian Bulatao, Dave Urban and Ulrich Brechbuhl.

— The Congressional Black Caucus Institute held a dinner for new CBC members at Charlie Palmer on Monday night and celebrated CBCI Chair Bennie Thompson’s (D-Miss.) birthday. SPOTTED: CBC Chair Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Reps. Don Davis (D-N.C.), Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.), Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio), Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.), Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), Sydney Kamlager (D-Calif.) and Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.), LaKeitha Anderson, Art Collins and Jennifer Stewart. Pic… Another pic

— SPOTTED on Tuesday at the Kennedy Center announcement of a year-long art diplomacy for democracy project by the State Department’s Megan Beyer: Jeff Koons, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro, Ukraine Ambassador Oksana Markarova, Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.), Mike Turner (R-Ohio) and Jim Himes (D-Conn.), Will Moser, U.S. Ambassador to Portugal Randi Levine, Deborah Rutter and Lee Satterfield.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The McCain Institute at Arizona State University is launching a Ukraine Business Alliance, convening leaders and experts to create public-private partnerships to help Ukraine. An initial meeting yesterday at the institute’s office in D.C. brought together Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin, Beth Van Schaack, Evelyn Farkas, Noam Perski and others.

— Former Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.) is joining Dentons as senior policy director for the federal advocacy team. He most recently was government affairs counselor at K&L Gates.

— Jean Accius is now president and CEO of Creating Healthier Communities. He previously was SVP of global thought leadership for AARP.

— Tom Erickson is now a battleground director with the NRCC’s political team. He previously was an associate at OnMessage Inc.

— Axiom Strategies is launching AxCapital, a political compliance enterprise, with Tom Datwyler serving as CEO and Rob Phillips III as president.

TRANSITIONS — Bailey Mohr is now a principal at Ascend Digital Strategies. She previously was senior adviser for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s reelect. … Melissa Waage is now a consultant for progressive organizations. She most recently was national campaign director at the Natural Resources Defense Council. … Michael Corcoran is now military legislative assistant for Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.). He previously was a HillVets fellow on the For Country Caucus. …

… Darby McQueen-Dever is now a legislative assistant with Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.). She previously was senior legislative assistant for Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.). … Taylor Zanazzi is now legislative correspondent/press assistant for Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.). He most recently was campaign manager for Mayra Flores, and is a Young Kim and Martha McSally alum. … Alex Thiessen will be a legislative correspondent for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). He previously was a staff assistant for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Brianna Manzelli, comms director for Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), and James Huddleston, a senior congressional liaison at the FAA, welcomed Theodore Robert Huddleston on Jan. 24. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) … Marc Elias of Elias Law Group … Fred Barnes of the Washington Examiner … ABC’s Ali Dukakis and Jordyn Phelps … Crossroads Strategies’ Mat Lapinski … Rachel Walker … Matt Moon of Narrative Strategies … David Barnhart … Miguel Ayala of Rep. Steven Horsford’s (D-Nev.) office … Aria Kovalovich … Natalie Cucchiara of Lot Sixteen … Michael Frias … State Department’s Gray Barrett … The Intercept’s Ken Klippenstein … Kayla Primes of Sen. Jacky Rosen’s (D-Nev.) office … Jason Russell … Abigail O’Brien … Meaghan Burdick of 14th Street Strategies … CBS’ Alana Anyse … NBC’s Catherine Kim … Chase Adams of the National Pork Producers Council … Michael Kives … Alexa Kissinger … AIPAC’s Tara Brown … Bloomberg’s Michelle Jamrisko … POLITICO’s Gabrielle Zeigler, Lara Priluck, Sean Jennings, Taran McLaughlin and Taylor Joiner … Lauren Pickett … Gavin Wilde … Amy Sterner Nelson of The Riveter … Ciara Rascona of Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s office … Jake Siewert … Tara McGowan

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