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| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “Iran-US prisoner swap likely set in motion as $6 billion of once-frozen Iranian assets reaches Qatar,” by AP’s Jon Gambrell: “The planned exchange comes just ahead of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where Iran’s hard-line President EBRAHIM RAISI will speak.” MISSING: ONE $80 MILLION F-35 — “Pilot ejects from jet over North Charleston,” by the Post and Courier’s Scott Hamilton: “The military and civilian authorities are asking the public to contact the [Joint Base] Charleston Base Defense Operations Center at 843-963-3600 if anyone has information to help in the recovery of the jet.” THE DEAL THAT WASN’T — After working through the weekend to bridge differences between their centrist and conservative wings, House Republican leaders announced last night that they had a deal that could unite the GOP behind a short-term spending patch and shore up their negotiating position with Democrats ahead of a potential Oct. 1 shutdown.
|  Speaker Kevin McCarthy arrives for a House Republican Conference meeting at the Capitol, Sept. 13, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | For a minute, it seemed like a deja vu moment — another tactical coup for Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY, who after fits and starts earlier this year got his conference to unite behind a conservative debt-ceiling proposal, paving the way for an unlikely bipartisan deal to avert a federal default. This time, things aren’t looking so good. As details of the deal hashed out by leaders of the Main Street Caucus and House Freedom Caucus trickled out, a bevy of conservative hardliners piped up with various versions of “Hell No” — rejecting a measure that would impose an 8% cut to most non-defense programs and implement an array of GOP border policies while extending government funding for a month. A taste of the blowback: Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) told our colleague Olivia Beavers he “will not support this 167 page surrender to JOE BIDEN.” Rep. MATT ROSENDALE (R-Mont.) called the plan a “continuation of NANCY PELOSI’s budget and Joe Biden’s policies.” Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) posted to X, “I’m a NO,” while Rep. ELI CRANE (R-Ariz.) simply posted “NO.” Add to that more objections from Reps. DAN BISHOP (R-N.C.), CORY MILLS (R-Fla.), TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.), TONY GONZALES (R-Texas), ANDY OGLES (R-Tenn.), ANNA PAULINA LUNA (R-Fa.), VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.) and RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.), with others certain to follow. (h/t Olivia, Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke and the Washington Examiner’s Reese Gorman for the late-night whip) It all adds up to brutal math for McCarthy, who can afford to lose no more than four votes assuming all Democrats vote against it (take it to the bank) and all of his members show up this week (iffy, with at least three members at least temporarily sidelined). It also highlights just how unmanageable the House GOP truly is, with Freedom Caucus leaders — including Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.), its chair — endorsing a deal only to see it publicly rejected by a good chunk of its membership within a matter of minutes. To be sure: With a vote expected no sooner than Thursday, McCarthy and Majority Whip TOM EMMER (R-Minn.) have some time to tweak the proposal and bring the holdouts around. Perhaps the argument that worked during the debt-limit fight could change some minds again: The point isn’t to get this proposal signed into law, but to give Republicans as strong a negotiating hand as possible. But, remember, this is a group that felt burned by the deal McCarthy ultimately negotiated to end the default crisis, and they’re not going to be inclined to allow him much room to maneuver again. And whatever the fate of this CR gambit, remember that neither outcome gets Congress any closer to avoiding a shutdown in 13 days. Biden and the Democratic Senate aren’t going to swallow a top-line spending cut and a bunch of partisan policy riders to keep the lights on. And remember they have a wishlist of their own, including a hefty new tranche of Ukraine aid …
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Explore the impact. | | | IS UKRAINE AID DEAD? — Which brings us to the bigger picture: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY heads to Washington later this week in a last-ditch effort to shore up American support for his war-torn nation. But while there’s a broad bipartisan coalition keen on continuing aid to Kyiv, it increasingly looks like that assistance could become the latest casualty of the battle inside the GOP. To recap: The White House and Ukraine’s bipartisan allies in the Senate have plotted for weeks to advance $24 billion in supplemental Ukraine aid alongside whatever temporary funding patch moves around the Oct. 1 shutdown deadline. House conservatives have erupted at the notion of attaching Ukraine aid to a CR, and even McCarthy’s gambit of moving it separately with border security legislation has gotten a chilly reception. Now the notion of moving any Ukraine aid has appeared on the litany of grievances the hard right is using to threaten McCarthy’s speakership. And even Greene, one of McCarthy’s top allies on the right, told Playbook recently that no amount of border funding could compensate for another injection of U.S. taxpayer money overseas. “It’s getting to be a very taboo issue in our conference, and the American people don’t support it,” Greene said, calling the battle against Russia’s invasion “a war that should be over.” Enter Zelenskyy. After a stop at the U.N. General Assembly this week, the Ukrainian leader is headed to the Capitol on Thursday, where he’s expected to argue that continued support for his country is in the long-term interest of the U.S., the world and democracy itself. He’ll take his case directly to lawmakers and expects to have a separate, private huddle with Hill leaders, we’re told. Some are counting on Zelenskyy to mollify the skeptics. House Intelligence Chair MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) predicted on CBS’ “Face the Nation” yesterday that he “makes the case better than anyone” and could be “very, very persuasive” in getting Republican holdouts on board. That prompted an incredulous reaction from one senior GOP lawmaker we spoke to, who joked that when Turner’s “pet unicorn has offspring, I’d like to buy one of the colts.” “Get out of here,” the lawmaker said. “That’s just crazy. … We do not have the votes in the Republican conference to do any Ukraine funding.” For evidence of the tensions, just look at the disparate treatment Zelenskyy is getting in the two chambers. Senate leaders put out word yesterday that all 100 senators will be invited to meet with the visiting leader Thursday, while his plans for the House remain in flux. McCarthy, we’re told, will not have a one-on-one meeting with Zelenskyy (though they may appear together with other leaders), and the speaker has left the task of organizing any appearance on the House side to his committee chairs. The fact that the visit will be happening in the thick of the spending battle has only added to the strain. “That just makes it that much harder to get some of these [spending bills] across the finish line, because he just irritates some of our members,” the senior GOP lawmaker said. McCarthy has long walked a fine line on Ukraine aid, expressing support for continuing assistance with some strings attached. During a visit to Israel in May, he chided a Russian reporter who pushed him on the issue: “We will continue to support [Ukraine], because the rest of the world sees this just as it is,” he said. Now, with an anti-Ukraine faction emboldened by skeptical constituents and openly threatening his gavel if he allows new aid to come to a vote, the world will be listening. Will he speak so clearly? Related reads: “In U.S. Visit, Zelensky to Make a Case for More Aid, and Say Thank You,” by NYT’s Andrew Kramer … “House Republicans finalize deal on short-term funding bill, but major hurdles remain to avoid shutdown,” by CNN’s Melanie Zanona and Lauren Fox Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Biden delivers remarks at the U.N. General Assembly and meets with Secretary-General ANTONIO GUTERRES. Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) campaigns in Iowa. … Wednesday: Fed meets on interest rates. Biden holds bilateral meetings with Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and Brazilian President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA. Trump speaks in Dubuque, Iowa. Scott attends St. Anselm College’s Politics and Eggs. AG MERRICK GARLAND appears before the House Judiciary Committee. … Thursday: Lawmakers meet with Zelenskyy at the Capitol. NIKKI HALEY campaigns in Iowa. JOIN US — Rachael, Ryan and other POLITICO stars are hosting an event tomorrow about building the new American economy, featuring conversations with Council of Economic Advisers Chair JARED BERNSTEIN, Reps. DAVID SCHWEIKERT (R-Ariz.) and DREW FERGUSON (R-Ga.), and more. RSVP here
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up a “minibus” for the Military Construction-VA/Agriculture-FDA/Transportation-HUD spending bills, and will vote on cloture for a judicial nomination at 5:30 p.m. The House will meet at noon and at 2 p.m. will take up several bills, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. 3 things to watch …
- Remember, the Senate is having spending issues of their own. Leaders will try to figure out this evening whether they can salvage their plans to assemble a three-bill “minibus” in the face of conservative opposition — perhaps by assembling 67 votes to suspend the rules — or whether it’s time to move to Plan B.
- Members of the House Administration Committee are holding an “informational security briefing” for members and staff this morning on the topic of personal safety in D.C. As our Katherine Tully-McManus detailed last week, the discussion of “best practices, safety tips, and precautions" comes not only amid a general rise in violent crime in the city but recent attacks targeting Capitol denizens.
- While the House figures out its spending mess, leaders are prepping some softballs for floor action early in the week. Among them: A resolution condemning New Mexico Gov. MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM (D) for her recent executive order suspending the right to carry a gun in her state’s largest county. (A federal judge’s emergency ruling — and objections from Republicans and Democrats alike — forced her to narrow the order Friday.)
At the White House Biden will attend two campaign receptions in NYC this evening. VP KAMALA HARRIS has nothing on her public schedule.
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James Craig said the United Auto Workers strike makes him likelier to run for Senate. | Paul Sancya, File/AP Photo | STRIKING A NERVE — There appeared to be no breakthrough or notable movement from either side yesterday in the big autoworkers’ strike, per NYT’s Ivan Penn. But already the political ground is starting to shift, as Republicans spy an opening to claw back ground in Michigan, Myah Ward and Ally Mutnick report. With Democrats’ clean energy and pro-labor goals at odds, the GOP wants to make inroads by blasting Biden for prioritizing climate change over workers. But it’s a tricky position for Republicans too, who are voicing support for the strikers more than usual yet have a fraught relationship with labor unions. Republican JAMES CRAIG, for one, tells Myah and Ally that the strike makes him likelier to run for Senate. The White House knows that a lengthy strike is not good for the economy or for Biden, and senior adviser GENE SPERLING and acting Labor Secretary JULIE SU are arriving in Detroit early this week to work toward resolution, NBC’s Monica Alba, Jesse Kirsch and Will Ujek report. Meanwhile, WSJ’s Nora Eckert, Mike Colias and Ryan Felton have an interesting behind-the-scenes story on how the United Auto Workers got here — via SHAWN FAIN’s decision to shed the union’s typical tactics and surprise the “Big Three” automakers with a slow-burn strategy. AMERICA AND THE WORLD YOWZA — “U.S. Helped Pakistan Get IMF Bailout with Secret Arms Deal for Ukraine, Leaked Documents Reveal,” by The Intercept’s Ryan Grim and Murtaza Hussain: “Secret Pakistani arms sales to the U.S. helped to facilitate a controversial bailout from the International Monetary Fund earlier this year … The emergency loan allowed the new Pakistani government to put off a looming economic catastrophe and indefinitely postpone elections — time it used to launch a nationwide crackdown on civil society and jail [PM IMRAN] KHAN.” NOTABLE QUOTABLE — In an interview with PBS NewsHour’s Amna Nawaz airing tonight, Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN has this to say about Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) opposing the sale of F-16s to Turkey: “Bob Menendez is not very much familiar with Turkey. And Menendez doesn’t seem to be familiar with Tayyip Erdogan either.” DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN met with Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI in Malta this weekend, the White House said. More from the Washington Examiner SPY GAMES — “In Risky Hunt for Secrets, U.S. and China Expand Global Spy Operations,” by NYT’s Julian Barnes and Edward Wong
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|  Donald Trump plans to be back in Iowa four more times in October. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images | ARTICLE OF FAITH — After having a fairly light touch in Iowa much of this year, Trump is planning to ramp up his campaigning in the first-caucus state — hoping to persuade evangelical supporters and cement himself as the inevitable nominee, Meridith McGraw and Sally Goldenberg report this morning. Team Trump thinks an Iowa victory can deliver a “knock-out punch” for Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ campaign. In addition to events this week, Trump plans to be back in Iowa four more times in October. MAGA Inc. is shelling out $700,000 on ads in the state just this week. And ALEX MEYER is joining the Trump campaign from the RNC to focus on Iowa and Missouri. But DeSantis won’t make it easy: His campaign brags that he’s doing more Iowa events in one day than Trump will over nearly two months. Meridith and Sally report that he seems to be a frontrunner for BOB VANDER PLAATS’ influential endorsement. And some Iowa conservatives think Trump could still be penalized on social issues. More top reads:
CONGRESS DATA DIVE — “Lawmakers are spending way more to keep themselves safe. Is it enough?” by WaPo’s Greg Morton, Marianna Sotomayor and Camila DeChalus: “Candidates running for House and Senate offices increased campaign spending on security by more than 500 percent between the 2020 election and the 2022 midterms.” SNAP TO IT — “Food benefits for millions at center of latest Washington spending fight,” by NBC’s Shannon Pennypiece TRANSPARENCY TRIBULATIONS — “House Democrats press for cameras in federal courts, as Trump trials and Supreme Court session loom,” by CBS’ Scott MacFarlane THE WHITE HOUSE
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President Joe Biden walks out of the White House to board Marine One on Sept. 17, 2023. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo | IMPEACHMENT SEASON — A week after McCarthy made a big move by opening an impeachment inquiry into Biden, the L.A. Times’ Mark Barabak has an illuminating dispatch from the speaker’s district. In the conservative Central Valley, there’s broad support for impeachment — but largely because voters simply hate Biden, not because they’re focused on specific allegations. “What’s striking is how little Biden’s alleged, unproven corruption has to do with pro-impeachment sentiments.” At the White House, meanwhile, new counsel ED SISKEL had quite the second day on the job: That’s when McCarthy made his announcement, NYT’s Katie Rogers reports. It was also just a few days after he moved to Washington. But, previewing the cross-branch fights ahead over documents, Siskel allies tell the Times he has “a seasoned understanding of where established legal precedents are with congressional investigations targeting the White House.” More top reads:
- When Biden addresses UNGA this week, Jonathan Lemire writes, he’ll “offer another defense of democracy … but one already at risk of being overshadowed by messy domestic politics,” including the looming shutdown, the auto strike and his son’s indictment.
MORE POLITICS KNOWING GARRETT ZIEGLER — “The scorched-earth activist trying to take down Hunter Biden,” by WaPo’s Meryl Kornfield: “Some of HUNTER BIDEN’s associates worry that Ziegler, with his sometimes-wild theorizing combined with an encyclopedic knowledge of Hunter Biden’s history, will influence the public discussion as well as the House probes of the president’s son. Ziegler argues that he is filling a vital role.” SURVEY SAYS — The second annual 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll has some interesting data points about Americans’ complex views on gender, abortion and more. Among the findings that jumped out at us: Fifty-seven percent of Americans think adults should be allowed to access gender transition-related medical care. But only 39% say the same for minors. Overall, just 17% of respondents say they want politicians to prioritize restricting such medical care. A whopping 81% back a federal law blocking domestic abusers from buying guns. Views on abortion are complicated, but 63% of Americans say the procedure should be legal most or all of the time. BEYOND THE BELTWAY THE ABORTION LANDSCAPE — “Wisconsin Abortion Clinics Prepare to Resume Appointments,” by WSJ’s Jennifer Calfas
| | | | GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | John Fetterman can wear his gym shorts all the time on the Senate floor now. Pete Buttigieg did a half Ironman. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Renwick Gallery last night for a party for Walter Isaacson’s new book, “Elon Musk” ($35), hosted by David Rubenstein, Eric and Hannah Motley, Patty Stonesifer and Michael Kinsley, Sally Quinn, Donna Brazile and Evan and Oscie Thomas: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Cathy Isaacson, Evan Ryan, Mitch Landrieu, Mathias Döpfner, Margaret Carlson, UAE Ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba, Graham Veysey, Jane Harman, Tammy Haddad, Mike Allen, Alex Thompson, Steve Case, Tom Nides, Lincoln Foran, Juleanna Glover, Josh Dawsey, Jonathan and Betsy Fischer Martin, Jamie Kirchick, John Bessler, and Linda Douglass and John Phillips. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jay Bhargava is joining Powell Tate as a VP of public affairs. He previously was with Sen. Gary Peters’ (D-Mich.) Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee office, and is a Tom Suozzi and Clinton Foundation alum. — Abhi Rahman is now national comms director for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. He most recently was senior director for strategy at Penta Group and is a Beto O’Rourke, Texas Democratic Party and Stacey Abrams alum. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Tara Murray is now executive director of the National Urban League’s Washington bureau and SVP for policy and advocacy. She previously was special assistant to the president and deputy director in the Office of Public Engagement. More from BET TRANSITIONS — Andrea Porwoll is now comms director for Speaker Kevin McCarthy. She previously was comms director for the House Administration Committee. … Micah Meadowcroft is now research director of the Center for Renewing America. He previously was web editor for The American Conservative. ENGAGED — Annie Rees, a senior producer for audio at POLITICO, and Steve Tebbe, a senior management consultant at M2 Strategy, got engaged Friday at Manoir Hovey in Quebec. They met two years ago on a blind date at Purple Patch. Pic — Michael Starr Hopkins, CEO of Northern Starr Strategies, proposed to Megan Mattson, operations counsel at WTA, over breakfast in his apartment. They met on moot court in law school, and plan to get married in Tulum, Mexico, in March. Pic … Another pic WEEKEND WEDDING — Caroline Boulton, senior consultant at Deloitte, and Aaron Thiele, legislative assistant for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), got married Saturday in Pawling, N.Y. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), Micah Chambers, Heather Swift, Scott Hommel, Michael and Elenor Werner. BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Sam Weinberger HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) … Scott MacFarlane … former HUD Secretary Ben Carson … Bakari Sellers … WaPo’s Griff Witte, Darryl Fears and Desmond Butler … Jeff Sadosky of Forbes Tate Partners … Katrina Bishop … Chris Lucas … Joan Walsh of The Nation … Jackie Calmes of the L.A. Times … Luis Navarro … Safiya Ghori-Ahmad of McLarty Associates … Jess Morales Rocketto … POLITICO’s Jala McFadden … Dayna Cade … Daniel Burnett … Erin Buechel Wieczorek of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency … Adam Keiper … Angela Flood of AFK Strategies … Monica Pampell … former Reps. Steve Watkins (R-Kan.), Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio) and John Tierney (D-Mass.) … Andrew Church … Carrie Hebert … State’s Carly Lindgren … Trevor Houser of Rhodium Group … Sara Haines … Natural Product Association’s Kyle Turk … Brooke Ainslie of the Herald Group … Rachel Irwin … Laura Hernandez-Smith of Rokk Solutions Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producer Bethany Irvine.
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