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Presented by bp: The unofficial guide to official Washington. | | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | ONE STRIKE DOWN? — “Writers Guild Reaches Tentative Agreement With Studios and Streamers,” by the Hollywood Reporter’s Katie Kilkenny FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS is edging closer to challenging President JOE BIDEN for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. “I am thinking about it. I haven’t ruled it out,” the three-term congressman from Minnesota said Friday — before the latest round of bad polling news for Biden — in an interview with political strategist STEVE SCHMIDT for an episode of his podcast “The Warning” that will be out later this morning. Jonathan Martin first reported in July that Phillips was talking to donors about a campaign, but during a subsequent round of media appearances, Phillips backed off and emphasized his goal was to encourage other Democrats to get into the race. But the governors he implored to run all demurred and restated their unequivocal support for Biden. Now in his interview with Schmidt, Phillips sounded much more like he might take the plunge himself. “I’m concerned that there is no alternative,” he said. “I’m concerned that something could happen between now and next November that would make the Democratic Convention in Chicago an unmitigated disaster. And for a party that is acting as the adults in the room, thank goodness, I’m concerned that we are not as it relates to our electoral strategy. So I’m considering it.” Full hour-long interview … Clip of Phillips on his presidential deliberations
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Speaker Kevin McCarthy briefs reporters at the Capitol, Sept. 19, 2023. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo | McCARTHY MOVES TO SPLIT THE RIGHT — It’s going to be a crazy week: Wednesday is the second GOP presidential debate. On Thursday, House Republicans will hold their first public impeachment hearing against Biden. And six days from now, we’ll either see a government shutdown putting millions of federal employees on furlough — or an 11th hour bipartisan spending agreement that could trigger an effort to remove KEVIN McCARTHY as speaker. Today, however, we’re expecting relative quiet on the Hill, with lawmakers off for the Yom Kippur holiday, giving us a moment to step back and review where things stand and where the week ahead could take us. Over the weekend, McCarthy rolled out his latest bid to pivot away from an embarrassing stretch where members of his own party left plan after plan in tatters, taking down two procedural votes and otherwise making a mockery of his ability to lead the House GOP. The new plan: Package several full-year appropriations bills together and try to get them moving in the House, bowing to the wishes of Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) and a handful of other members. On its face, it’s a strategy to nowhere: (1) There’s no guarantee McCarthy will be able to muster the votes to move forward — in fact, you’d have to bet against it, particularly after a top ally, Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.), announced yesterday that she remains a “hard no.” And (2) even if Republicans move forward with the full-year bills, that does nothing to avert a government shutdown next weekend. Those bills are DOA in the Senate, and Gaetz and a handful of like-minded hardliners insist that they won’t vote for any continuing resolution to keep the government open temporarily — even one that reportedly includes a 27% nondefense spending cut. McCarthy, meanwhile, has shown no sign he’s ready to move forward with a CR that could pass with Democratic votes, lest the hard-right rebellion turn into an outright mutiny. So what exactly is McCarthy doing here? The conventional wisdom among Republicans we’ve spoken to is that he’s hoping to build enough goodwill with MAGA-minded members that they’ll eventually agree to pass a conservative-leaning CR before a shutdown. (What happens after that, well — they’ll cross that bridge when they get there.) Of course, even McCarthy’s closest allies know that banking on Gaetz & Co. to suddenly embrace a stopgap is a risky proposition — and that was before DONALD TRUMP went on Truth Social last night to buck up the GOP: “UNLESS YOU GET EVERYTHING, SHUT IT DOWN!” What the latest play will do, however, is continue to drive a wedge into the hard-right bloc itself. Members of the House Freedom Caucus who negotiated a potential Republican CR last week have started voicing real irritation with their colleagues, like Gaetz, who immediately dismissed it. “I honestly don't know what to say to my fellow Republicans other than you're gonna eat a shit sandwich, and you probably deserve to eat it," Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) told Fox News last week — notably shifting his ire away from McCarthy and toward his fellow hardliners. A split on the right could be McCarthy’s best hope of surviving what most House Republicans now believe is inevitable — a vote on McCarthy’s ouster as speaker. Giving conservatives even more concessions, the thinking goes, will allow him to make the case to his members that the rebels are simply implacable — and unmanageable for any speaker. The Catch-22 is that progress this week could actually be worse for McCarthy on that score. Remember that any legislation that gets signed into law will need the support of Biden and Senate Democrats — and it won’t be GOP-written bills packed with spending cuts and policy riders. Sending those over now will only heighten the sense of grievance later, when the inevitable bipartisan CR comes back. As BRENDAN BUCK, a veteran of hard-right rebellions as a senior aide to two Republican speakers, put it to us, “The worst thing that could happen for Kevin is them passing something.”
| | | | A message from bp: Across the US, bp supports more than 275,000 jobs to keep our energy flowing. Like building grid-scale solar in Ohio AND producing gas with fewer operational emissions in Texas. See how else bp is investing in America. | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Ahead of the momentous week ahead, the White House is moving to make sure the unruly House GOP gets the blame for any shutdown — by citing the many Republicans who agree on that point. The memo from Deputy Press Secretary ANDREW BATES frames the spending fight by quoting McCarthy himself complaining about his right flank (“This is a whole new concept of individuals that just want to burn the whole place down”), as well as Gaetz blaming McCarthy (“We cannot blame Joe Biden for not having moved our individual spending bills”) — not to mention a bunch of GOP senators saying shutdowns are, essentially, stupid. Read the full memo Here’s another shutdown-owning quote we caught last night that Democrats will surely love, from Rep. GREG STEUBE (R-Fla.) on Fox News: “People in my district are willing to shut the government down for more conservative fiscal policy to put us on a path to balancing our budget at least in ten years.” Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. JOIN US — The POLITICO AI/Tech Summit on Wednesday will feature tons of fascinating conversations about the future of technology and the world, including Eugene interviewing Sen. ED MARKEY (D-Mass.). Also on the docket: FTC Chair LINA KHAN, Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.), Reps. JAY OBERNOLTE (R-Calif.) and TED LIEU (D-Calif.), deputy national security adviser ANNE NEUBERGER, LAKSHMI RAMAN and PALMER LUCKY. RSVP here THE WEEK — Tomorrow: House and Senate return to session after Yom Kippur holiday. Trump holds campaign rally in Summerville, S.C. Biden heads to metro Detroit to rally UAW strikers. … Wednesday: Second Republican presidential debate is held in Simi Valley, Calif. Trump appears in Clinton Township, Mich. SEC Chair GARY GENSLER appears before House Financial Services Committee. … Thursday: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Q2 economic growth estimate. House Oversight Committee holds initial hearing on Biden impeachment inquiry. … Friday: Trump addresses California Republican Party fall convention in Anaheim. … Saturday: Government funding expires at midnight.
| | | | A message from bp: bp added more than $70 billion to the US economy last year, developing more lower carbon energy AND keeping oil & gas flowing. And, not or. See how it’s driving our investment in America. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and The Senate are out. 3 things to watch … - Sen. BOB MENENDEZ is planning to address the public later this morning, three days after federal prosecutors accused him of engaging in a sordid bribery scheme with his wife. The New Jersey Democrat is expected to “take a defiant stand against the allegations,” per the NJ Globe, and we’re watching closely to see who — if anyone — is physically standing with him as he says this.
- Uncomfortable questioning about pending indictments has been mainly a reporter-on-Republican phenomenon in the Senate halls this year. That’s about to change. So keep a close eye today on whether any other Democratic senators join JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.) in calling for Menendez’s resignation ahead of their return to D.C. tomorrow.
- The biggest breakthrough on cannabis legislation that Capitol Hill has seen in years could be at hand this week, with the Senate Banking Committee set to advance a bipartisan bill that would legalize banking for the state-sponsored marijuana industry. But our Pro colleagues reported last week that last-minute changes threatened to tank GOP support for the bill, so watch if Wednesday’s planned markup goes on as planned.
At the White House Biden will meet with Pacific Islands Forum leaders in the East Room this morning for the U.S.-Pacific Islands Forum Summit and take a family photo. In the afternoon, he’ll host a meeting of the President’s Board of Advisors on Historically Black Colleges and Universities, with VP KAMALA HARRIS attending.
| | | | GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | TRUMP CARDS
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Donald Trump greets supporters at the Treehouse Pub & Eatery, Sept. 20, in Bettendorf, Iowa. | Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo | SAFETY NOT GUARANTEED — The various Trump criminal trials in the coming months pose a growing security risk for judges, prosecutors and everyone else caught up in the proceedings, NYT’s Michael Schmidt, Adam Goldman, Alan Feuer, Maggie Haberman and Glenn Thrush report. Threats and other harassment have been on the rise against the FBI (which created a special unit to handle them) and judicial chambers, while some prosecutors have gotten 24/7 security. “The threats, in turn, are prompting protective measures, a legal effort to curb his angry and sometimes incendiary public statements, and renewed concern about the potential for an election campaign in which Mr. Trump has promised ‘retribution’ to produce violence.” SPEAKING OF THREATS — Trump posted a long Truth Social comment last night warning that in a second term, he would take aim at the independent press, investigating mainstream media outlets and forcing them to “pay a big price” for their actions. Taking aim at NBC News and MSNBC in particular, Trump railed against their ‘Country Threatening Treason’ and indicated that he would take a close look at whether they could continue being on the airwaves for free. AMERICA AND THE WORLD BORDER SONG — “What’s Behind the Latest Migrant Surge? For Many, Impatience With a Government App,” by WSJ’s Alicia Caldwell in Eagle Pass, Texas: “Some said the [CBP One] app offered appointments to ask for asylum several months in the future — longer than they were willing to wait after a long journey from countries such as Venezuela. Others said it was unresponsive and unusable.” WHAT THEY’RE READING IN TEL AVIV — “The Biden administration is poised to allow Israeli citizens to travel to the U.S. without a U.S. visa,” by AP’s Matthew Lee: “Israel’s admission [to the Visa Waiver Program] has been a priority for successive Israeli leaders and will be a major accomplishment for [PM BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU.” ALL POLITICS
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Rep. Andy Kim holds his son August after casting a ballot in New Jersey's primary election, June 7, 2022 in Moorestown, N.J. | Michael Perez/AP Photo | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Rep. ANDY KIM’s (D-N.J.) primary campaign against the embattled Menendez is picking up a bit of steam this morning with his first national endorsement: End Citizens United/Let America Vote is backing Kim’s challenge. WHAT WORKS — A major new advertising study, which Semafor’s Ben Smith reports seems to be “the largest randomly-controlled test of American political ads ever conducted,” will have mixed news for various Democratic ideological camps. The peer-reviewed study of hundreds of 2018 and 2020 Dems ads, soon to be published in the American Political Science Review, finds that no one theory of how to move voters consistently proved successful. Neither “popularism” nor identity politics, for example, regularly appealed to voters more. But the study overall makes the case that experimentation with different ad approaches, and adaptability over time, is better than sticking with one theory. INSIDE THE STATES PROJECT — “How a Little-Known Group Helped Resurgent Democrats Wield Power,” by NYT’s Nick Corasitini More top reads:
- Louisiana AG JEFF LANDRY, the GOP gubernatorial frontrunner, has lost the support of major donor JOHN ODOM because Landry hired COREY LEWANDOWSKI, Alex Isenstadt reports this morning. Odom’s then-wife accused Lewandowski of making unwanted advances toward her in 2021, which ended in a plea deal.
- It’s not just New York: The surge of migrants is quickly becoming a campaign issue in this year’s New Jersey elections after the Biden administration suggested Atlantic City International Airport as one place to house NYC’s migrants, Matt Friedman reports.
| | | | A message from bp:   Just two of the ways bp is investing in America. | | | 2024 WATCH CASH DASH — “‘Who wants to get involved and waste money?’ Some GOP donors give up on finding an alternative to Trump,” by Sally Goldenberg, Shia Kapos and Jessica Piper: “Across all [super PACs] focused on the GOP presidential primary, only 66 individual donors made contributions of $250,000 or more through the end of June … That marks a 24 percent drop from this time in 2016.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — CHRIS CHRISTIE has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars at a series of fundraisers across the country last week and this weekend, per a source familiar. Among the notable attendee names:
- ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI and ANDREW YANG in NYC;
- BOB McDONNELL, HALEY BARBOUR, BARBARA COMSTOCK, BOBBIE and BILL KILBERG, and TED OLSON in McLean, Va.;
- JOE O’DEA in Denver; and
- DOUG DUCEY, JON KYL, KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON and MICHAEL BIDWILL in Phoenix.
UP FOR DEBATE — “Dana Perino of Fox News Is About to Face Her Biggest Test as a Journalist,” by NYT’s Jeremy Peters: “Current and former colleagues said that she has managed to persevere at Fox by being neither a Trump supplicant nor fierce critic.” — Perino also talks to Kelly Garrity about preparing to moderate this week’s GOP presidential debate: “It’s up to the candidates to understand that if you’re talking over somebody that means that the microphones cancel each other out, and no one hears what you’re saying so it’s not productive. And I don’t know if there’s anything I can do about that.” THE WHITE HOUSE
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UAW President Shawn Fain wants President Joe Biden to be much more visible and vocal — and now he’s getting it. | Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images | WHAT UNION JOE IS READING — The Biden White House has followed a certain formula for approaching big labor strikes that threaten broader economic repercussions. But the United Auto Workers’ aggressive, unorthodox approach has forced Biden to mix it up — as epitomized by his move to join the picket line tomorrow, Tanya Snyder, Holly Otterbein and Olivia Olander report this morning. Previously, the White House has worked behind the scenes to pressure companies into making concessions toward labor. But UAW President SHAWN FAIN wants Biden to be much more visible and vocal — and now he’s getting it, after earlier administration moves didn’t satisfy Fain. WHAT AMTRAK JOE IS READING — “Biden administration announces $1.4 billion to improve rail safety and boost capacity in 35 states,” AP POLICY CORNER SPECIAL REPORT — “‘A contradiction’: U.S. subsidizes ‘sustainable’ buildings, but leaves them vulnerable to floods,” by Corbin Hiar in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.: “The U.S. Green Building Council’s LEED rating system is the gold standard for environmental design. But more than 800 LEED-certified buildings are at risk from climate-related disasters.” JUDICIARY SQUARE ENGLISH MAJORS, REV YOUR ENGINES — “The Supreme Court will hear a case with a lot of ‘buts’ & ‘ifs’ over the meaning of ‘and,’” by AP’s Mark Sherman: “What the justices decide could affect thousands of prison sentences each year. Federal courts across the country disagree about whether the word, as it is used in a bipartisan 2018 criminal justice overhaul, indeed means ‘and’ or whether it means ‘or.’ Even an appellate panel that upheld a longer sentence called the structure of the provision ‘perplexing.’”
| | | | GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Paul Gosar said Mark Milley is a “sodomy-promoting” traitor who should be killed. Jen Psaki is taking over MSNBC’s Monday 8 p.m. slot starting tonight. Tammy Duckworth got cheesed. Noah Feldman and Julia Allison are engaged. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at Ford Foundation President Darren Walker’s birthday party Thursday night at the Greenwich Village townhouse of Cary Davis and John McGinn: Mike Bloomberg, Huma Abedin, Spike Lee, Gloria Steinem, Billie Jean King, Laurene Powell Jobs, Don Lemon, David Remnick, Joe Kahn, Charles Blow, Jacob Bernstein, Jim Stewart, Agnes Gund, Alex Levy, Tali Farhadian Weinstein, Cesar Conde, Fred Hochberg and Tom Healy, Steve Ells, Holly Peterson, Ursula Burns, Blair Effron, Jerry Speyer, Ray McGuire, Sean Eldridge and Chris Hughes, Emma Tucker and Laurie Tisch. — David Stern and Tracey Hughes hosted a party for Cliff Sloan’s new book, “The Court at War: FDR, His Justices, and the World They Made” ($32.50), at their Chevy Chase home Saturday. SPOTTED: E.J. Dionne, Ruth Marcus, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Howard Fineman, Mike Abramowitz, Ariane de Vogue, Brian Frosh, Rafe Sagalyn, Tim Noah and Joanne Kenen. — SPOTTED at the BLK dating app annual CBC Culture & Congress brunch yesterday: Jonathan Kirkland, Mandela Barnes, Will Cunningham, Sierra Vista, Ariz., Mayor Clea McCaa II, Josephine Amusa, James Davis, Chloe Brown, Wintta Woldemariam, Amber Cooper, Wevine Fidelis and Lisa Detig. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jane Lee is now chief government affairs officer at Rebellion Defense. She previously was head of policy and government affairs and is a Mitch McConnell, Senate Approps, House Budget and OMB alum. TRANSITIONS — Jonathan Uriarte is now director of strategic comms and policy adviser for FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel. He most recently was director of Hispanic media for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and is a Mark Warner and Stephanie Murray alum. … Tom Pino is launching Polaris, a new paid media buying firm focused on TV and digital together. He most recently led media buying at Rising Tide Interactive, and is a GPS Impact and GMMB alum. … Gigi O’Connell is joining the Treasury Department’s Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence to advise on strategic comms. She previously was with TRACE International. … … Troy Blackwell is now senior adviser of the newly created office of enterprise integration at the Selective Service System. He’s on detail from his current role as chief spokesperson and director of the office of press relations at the Peace Corps, and is a Biden campaign alum. … Tizzy Brown is now doing national partnerships on the Uber federal affairs team. She previously was senior director of Global Women’s Innovation Network. … Rebecca Hattar is now legislative assistant on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee under ranking member Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). She previously was senior legislative assistant for Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa). WEDDINGS — Patrick Kelly, director of speechwriting at NASA, and Tarah Patz, a senior consultant at Deloitte, got married Sept. 16 along Lake Michigan in Chicago. Pic … Another pic — Kelly Laco, executive editor of politics for the Daily Mail, and Ben Steinhafel, director of federal affairs for Blue Cross Blue Shield Association, got married Saturday at Holy Family Catholic Church, followed by a reception at The Athenaeum in Pasadena, Calif. They had their first date in June 2020 in Navy Yard. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Kerri and Keith Urbahn, Dave and Annaliisa Trulio, Ninio Fetalvo, Sarah and Evan Ryan, Meg Gallagher, Rachel Walker, Mollie Timmons, and Mike Watson and Katie Phillips. — Sam Newton, comms director for the Democratic Governors Association, and Kaycee Nail, director of government relations for the Penman Group, got married this weekend in downtown Columbia, Mo., where they met in 2017. They had their first dance to “The Long Way Around” by The Chicks, and the after-party featured pizza from Shakespeare’s (where they met) and more dancing to throwback punk rock. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Doris Matsui (D-Calif.), Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) (7-0) and Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.) … Jeff Roe … Chamber of Commerce’s Jack Howard … Tim Hogan … former Defense Secretary Robert Gates (8-0) … NPR’s Tamara Keith … Brian Beutler … NBC’s Ryan Reilly … Dave Peluso … POLITICO’s Bob King and Lesley Clark … Kiley Smith … Ed Newberry of Squire Patton Boggs … George Hornedo … FEC’s Sloane Carlough … Chrissy Harbin … Washington Examiner’s Madeline Fry Schultz … Missy Owens of General Motors … Rita Norton … Kirsten West of Cornerstone Government Affairs … Carmiel Arbit … Messina Group’s Jack Davis … Arnold & Porter’s Mickayla Stogsdill … Emily Threadgill … Bloomberg’s John Lauinger … Steptoe & Johnson’s Darryl Nirenberg … Vivyan Tran … Katie Lee of Mental Health America … Dena Kozanas … former Rep. Jerry Costello (D-Ill.) … Gary Carpentier … April Greener Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producer Bethany Irvine.
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