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Presented by Amway: The unofficial guide to official Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s latest column: “They Predicted an Enduring Democratic Majority. What Went Wrong?” DATELINE TEL AVIV — “Blinken arrives in Israel, will push for ‘humanitarian pauses,’” by WaPo’s Michael Birnbaum: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN “is also expected to discuss long-term plans with the Israelis about the thorny question of how Gaza would be administered once their military effort is over.”
|  Nikki Haley gestures as she arrives at the Republican Jewish Coalition's Annual Leadership Summit at The Venetian Resort Las Vegas on Oct. 28, 2023, in Las Vegas, Nevada. | Ethan Miller/Getty Images | NIKKI-MENTUM? — Every four years, it happens. A candidate gets some surge of momentum — a favorable poll or two, strong fundraising numbers, general vibes — and is treated to a few weeks in the spotlight. For a short period, it feels like they might actually take the top spot. But then there’s a crash and burn, and the spotlight inevitably cycles over to one of their competitors. Think 2012. HERMAIN CAIN. NEWT GINGRICH. RICK PERRY. MICHELE BACHMANN. Yet, every once in a while, the momentum sustains and feels real. That’s where former South Carolina Gov. NIKKI HALEY is right this moment. We want to be up front here: All available evidence suggests that this race is still DONALD TRUMP’s to lose. Even with all the drama and legal trouble swirling around him, he is still miles ahead of all the other candidates in polling and in enthusiasm from the GOP base. But evidence has been piling up that Haley might actually have something on her hands — buoyed by strong debate performances, poll numbers that have been consistently climbing and a growing chorus of Republicans telling all the boys to pack up and let her take Trump head on. On the latter, there seems to be broad agreement that for Haley, New Hampshire is, if not make-or-break, definitely the venue that can solidify her status as the non-Trump Republican in this race. WHY NEW HAMPSHIRE? Let’s assume, for a moment, that Trump wins Iowa. Who gets second place, and how does that fit into the meta narrative about their campaign? Are they positioned to capitalize on a second-place showing in the next two early states: New Hampshire and South Carolina? Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ numbers are sliding in Iowa — since August, he’s dropped about 3 points while Haley has jumped up 10, per the esteemed Iowa Poll. A second-place finish for him is unlikely to change the sense of try-hard lethargy that has surrounded his campaign. He’s already polling in third place in New Hampshire (the trendline of his RCP polling average in the state is a downhill schuss), and it’s hard to imagine him besting Haley in South Carolina, her home state, where she was twice elected governor. Haley’s allies make the case that Iowa is do or die for DeSantis, and that by contrast, she is the only candidate in a strong position in all three early states. Since the first debate, Haley’s polling in New Hampshire has grown from just 3% in August to nearly 20% in recent polls, leapfrogging over DeSantis to second place. “She has a good chance to get second in Iowa. She’s prepared for a potential upset in New Hampshire. You can feel her coming on,” says MIKE MURPHY, longtime GOP operative who masterminded JOHN McCAIN’s insurgent 2000 campaign that famously won New Hampshire. And, Murphy notes, there’s this: “People forget that New Hampshire is not a Republican-only primary.” Indeed, registered Republicans and voters who are registered “undeclared” — of which, there are some 344,000 — can vote in New Hampshire’s GOP primary. Watch out for the “undeclared” voter. Apologies to DEAN PHILLIPS, but JOE BIDEN is not on the ballot, and people who might otherwise vote in the Dem primary may instead find themselves drawn to cast a ballot in the GOP primary. And being a non-Trumpy Republican is likely a great asset. Ahead of the Oct. 7 cutoff to lock in their registration, 3,542 Democratic voters in the state switched to “undeclared,” and another 408 registered as Republican. Earth-shaking? Hardly. But enough to make a difference in a close race. Haley has “waged a very New Hampshire-like campaign,” says JIM DEMERS, a longtime New Hampshire Democrat. “She’s done a lot of town hall meetings. It’s very similar to the John McCain effort, where he had the town halls all across the state.” “If there’s a breakout candidate, she could be the one,” he says. “But there’s so much territory to have to make up on Trump.” One factor that could make a surprise N.H. win a springboard: “Before, you never had a New Hampshire upstart winner already have strength in South Carolina,” Murphy says. “Normally you’re way behind the eight ball — you fly from New Hampshire, and you’re struggling to catch up.” Haley won’t have that problem. SOME CAVEATS: The Haley campaign pushes back a bit on New Hampshire being a make-or-break state. “Our goal has always been to do as well as we can in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina,” one senior Haley aide told us yesterday. Asked about Haley’s rise in the polls, DeSantis comms director ANDREW ROMEO had this to say: "Public polling in October hasn't historically been indicative of who will win the Iowa Caucus and it won't be this time either. We are seeing Ron DeSantis continue to build momentum in the Hawkeye State, and Team Trump is, too — which is exactly why they are once again using the entirety of their media buy in Iowa attacking the governor with false negative ads.” Fair enough. The race is still fluid, there’s a big debate this Wednesday that could well refocus the race — and even if there is a clear non-Trump contender, the reality is that this is still Trump’s party, any consolidation of the field needs to happen fast, and the lanes to knock Trump out of the running are narrower than they were in 2016. But maybe, wearing the heels she’s fond of mentioning on the campaign trail, Haley can walk that tightrope. Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Amway: In a corporate landscape where companies are racing to embrace traceability, Amway stands apart. While many brands only trace one part of product creation, such as key ingredient origins, Amway leaders have made the decision to publicly trace the full life of the company’s products from idea to formulation, to manufacturing to packaging. In essence, Amway is letting the consumer become the company insider, with an unvarnished look at its manufacturing process. Learn more. | | | THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: DAVID LEONHARDT — David Leonhardt has done just about everything at the New York Times. Today, he writes “The Morning,” the Times’ flagship AM newsletter. Prior to that, he was an opinion writer, a reporter and a podcast host. He's also won a Pulitzer Prize. And now he's written a new book, “Ours Was The Shining Future: The Story of the American Dream” ($32). Leonhardt’s book examines modern economic history through the ideas of the New Deal's architects, of labor leaders like GEORGE MEANY and WALTER REUTHER and of their intellectual opponents — conservatives like MILTON FRIEDMAN and ROBERT BORK.
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| At the heart of Leonhardt’s history of the rise and fall of the American Dream is a story about how Democrats ceded the loyalties of the working class to Republicans by not paying enough attention to the average Americans’ concerns about crime, immigration and economic progress. It's also the story of big ideas that both parties embraced — like unfettered free trade with China and permissive immigration — that, Leonhardt argues, haven't lived up to the promises made by their architects. Listen to the full episode on Apple Podcasts … or on Spotify
| | | | A message from Amway:   Trout Lake Farm in Washington State – where Nutrilite by Amway is grown – employs environmentally sustainable crop protection: a team of falcons. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at 9 a.m. The Senate is out. 3 things to watch …
- Nearly four weeks after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, we’re watching a broader group of congressional Democrats begin to call for a hiatus in Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. A day after Biden suggested the need for a “pause” at a Wednesday Minneapolis fundraiser, a host of Senate Democrats followed suit. They included Sen. BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii), who said “the scale of human suffering right now is untenable,” and a group of 13 senators, including Judiciary Chair DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) and Intel Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.), who called for a “short-term cessation of hostilities” to allow for humanitarian aid, hostage negotiations and potential diplomacy. More from Andrew Zhang
- New House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON held his first news conference yesterday, taking questions from a variety of news orgs. But when it comes to solo TV interviews, he’s so far kept things inside the family — the Fox family. So far, he’s done two primetime appearances with SEAN HANNITY, one with KAYLEIGH McENANY and a Thursday Fox Business hit with LARRY KUDLOW. He’s also booked for this weekend’s Fox News Sunday. Will his strategy change? That’ll be up to new comms director RAJ SHAH, a former Fox Corp. exec.
- At that news conference, Johnson bragged about the House’s progress on FY2024 appropriations, claiming the chamber was on pace to have eight of 12 spending bills passed by today. That turned out to be premature: A few hours later, plans to process the Transportation-HUD bill imploded. And with several even tougher bills remaining, it’s unclear how much more progress the House will be able to make. The Senate, for what it’s worth, isn’t doing any better: After the passage of a three-bill “minibus” this week, there appear to be no immediate plans to do more, with a Nov. 17 shutdown deadline looming for both chambers.
At the White House Biden in the morning will welcome leaders to the White House for the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders’ Summit. In the afternoon, Biden will depart for Lewiston, Maine, where he and first lady JILL BIDEN will meet with first responders, nurses and others in the wake of the recent mass shooting there. Biden will also deliver remarks and in the evening will meet with families and victims of the attack. Later, they will travel to Rehoboth Beach, Del.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | THE WHITE HOUSE
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President Joe Biden speaks at Dutch Creek Farms in Northfield, Minn., Nov. 1., 2023. | Andrew Harnik/AP | BIDEN’S BIG BET — Biden administration officials are preparing Democratic lawmakers and immigration policy advocates for the likelihood that they will have to “swallow compromises on asylum law in order for the president’s national security funding request to pass,” Myah Ward and Ursula Perano report. “In calls with those lawmakers and advocates in recent weeks, officials from the White House and Department of Homeland Security floated potential changes as a means of winning over Republicans opposed to aid for Ukraine, according to four people familiar with the talks.” The outreach is the latest sign of how challenging the coming days will be for the White House as it tries to move a $106 billion supplemental aid package that includes money for Ukraine, Israel, the southern border and Taiwan. Democrats have thus far “resisted engaging in talks over what concessions they would make before Republicans detail what concrete policy asks they have, even as they express a willingness to talk.” “A former administration official familiar with the discussions, who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations, said the White House’s openness to asylum reform ‘was a huge substantive risk, and political one.’” They added: “It could get ugly.” More top reads:
CONGRESS
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House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) emerges from his office at the U.S. Capitol Nov. 1, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | DYNAMIC DUO — The Mike Johnson-CHUCK SCHUMER relationship now runs Washington, and it’s starting off on a less than great foot as the new GOP speaker and Democratic Senate majority leader face down a raft of challenges in the months ahead. Johnson used his first major legislative push — a $14 billion bill to shore up Israel’s defense against Hamas — “to flex his conservative credentials rather than show goodwill toward his Democratic counterpart on a mutual priority,” Burgess Everett and Sarah Ferris write. “By muscling through the Israel bill that slashed a key Democratic priority, Johnson sent a clear message to the Senate leader he’ll have to work with for at least another year: He’s fine thumbing his nose at Schumer to help keep the House GOP as united as possible. It’s an approach that may prove difficult for Johnson to maintain.” More top reads:
- The Senate pushed through three more military confirmations yesterday, WaPo’s Dan Lamothe writes. “Approved by lopsided margins were Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI, who will become the first woman to lead the Navy and join the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Gen. DAVID W. ALLVIN, nominated to lead the Air Force; and Lt. Gen. CHRISTOPHER J. MAHONEY, who will be promoted to four-star general, become the Marine Corps’s No. 2 officer and step in as the caretaker commandant.”
- Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.) escalated his feud with embattled Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) yesterday, introducing a resolution that would strip Menendez of his committee assignments and access to classified briefings. More from Ursula Perano
- The House yesterday approved a resolution condemning the support of terrorist organizations and antisemitism on college campuses on a 396-23 bipartisan vote, Bianca Quilantan writes.
| | | | A message from Amway:   | | | 2024 WATCH
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Donald Trump hosts a campaign event at the Orpheum Theater on Oct. 29, 2023, in Sioux City, Iowa. | Scott Olson/Getty Images | IF AT FIRST YOU DON’T SUCCEED, FAIL AGAIN — In late September, a conservative anti-Trump political action committee, Win It Back PAC, privately tried out four TV ads aimed at weakening Trump by hitting him on his myriad legal troubles. But aside from the topic of focus, each of the ads produced by the Club for Growth-linked group shared another thing in common: They all failed or backfired, Alex Isenstadt reports. “Three of the four actually boosted Trump’s support among the participants. One — a softer-touch spot that features a voter saying Trump’s trials ‘worries’ him — had no measurable impact on Trump’s numbers. The unaired ads, along with nearly 260 pages of accompanying data analysis, were obtained by POLITICO.” Reading between the lines: “The behind-the-scenes deliberations around the ads underscores how Trump’s legal problems have, if anything, helped — not hurt — his standing in the primary.” More top reads:
ALL POLITICS
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Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, left, speaks during a gubernatorial debate against Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, right, at Northern Kentucky University, Oct. 16, 2023. | Joe Simon/LINK nky via AP | THE BLUEGRASS BRUISER — Among the marquee matchups in next week’s off-year Election Day is the Kentucky gubernatorial race between Democratic Gov. ANDY BESHEAR and state AG DANIEL CAMERON. Republicans in the Bluegrass State are trying to sink Beshear’s reelection by tying him to Biden. How far that strategy gets them could say a lot about the matchups to come next year, our colleague Steve Shepard reports from Hazard, Ky. “Biden’s poll numbers have continued to sink to new lows — but Democrats have generally overperformed in special elections this year.” “A wire-to-wire Beshear win would suggest the president and his party are stronger than they look on paper heading into 2024. A come-from-behind Cameron victory would signal that the country is getting even more polarized, and that antipathy toward Biden is a powerful motivating force for Republican-leaning voters who approve of Beshear’s job performance but ultimately stuck with their party when it came time to pick a side.” More top reads:
AMERICA AND THE WORLD FOR YOUR RADAR — U.S. officials say that the “Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary organization, plans to provide an air-defense system to Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia,” WSJ’s Michael Gordon and Vivian Salama report. “The Russian SA-22 system they plan to send uses antiaircraft missiles and air-defense guns to intercept aircraft.” THE VIEW FROM THE U.S. — There is a “growing concern among top Biden administration officials about how the Israelis are carrying out the war and uncertainty about whether they can be reined in,” NBC’s Carol Lee and Courtney Kube report. TRUMP CARDS THE SON ALSO RISES — DONALD TRUMP JR. and ERIC TRUMP both took the witness stand in Manhattan yesterday, where they “offered differing denials of their involvement in financial documents at the center of the $250 million civil fraud trial in which the sons and their father stand accused of fraudulently inflating the former president’s net worth,” Erica Orden reports from New York. Trump himself is set to testify on Monday, with IVANKA TRUMP slated to take the stand later in the week. TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Dan Balz, Adam Harris, Susan Page and Alex Thompson. SUNDAY SO FAR … FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine. Panel: Michael Allen, Olivia Beavers, Guy Benson and Juan Williams. NBC “Meet the Press”: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy … Steve Kornacki. Panel: Cornell Belcher, Sara Fagen, Julio Vaqueiro and Amy Walter. CBS “Face the Nation”: Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova … Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Tony Gonzales (R-Texas). ABC “This Week”: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin … Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.). Panel: Jonathan Karl, Donna Brazile, Julie Pace and Reince Priebus. CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: Stacey Abrams.
| | | | PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Adam Kinzinger, who recently moved to Texas, said he “would love to run against Ted Cruz” — just not in 2024. Donald Trump Jr. wanted the courtroom sketch artist to do him a solid. Fox watch is back on Capitol Hill. Virginia Foxx is always alert. Jeff Bezos is taking his talents to South Beach. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party for Obama alumni hosted by David Plouffe and Jim Messina at the Salt Shed yesterday evening in advance of today’s official reunion hosted by the Obama Foundation in Chicago: former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama, Ben LaBolt, Ali Zaidi, Andrew Bates, Christina Reynolds, Emmett Beliveau, Tara Corrigan, Josh Earnest, Jen Psaki, Jon Favreau, Tommy Vietor, Alyssa Mastromonaco, Sam Cornale and Rufus Gifford. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Nia-Malika Henderson is joining Bloomberg Opinion as a politics and policy columnist. She currently is a senior political analyst for CNN. MEDIA MOVES — Kara Swisher has joined CNN as an on-air contributor. She is the host of the podcast “On with Kara Swisher,” co-host of the “Pivot” podcast and editor-at-large at New York Magazine. The announcement … Carrie Budoff Brown will be the new chair of the International Center for Journalists Board of Directors. She is the senior VP for politics at NBC and is a POLITICO alum. TRANSITIONS — Carson Steelman is joining the Sentinel Action Fund as VP of comms. She previously was director of comms at Heritage Action for America. … Alana Lomis is now deputy chief of staff for House Foreign Affairs Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas). She previously was operations manager for Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) and will continue as director of operations for the Republican Main Street Caucus. … … Phillips O’Brien is joining the Center for Strategic and International Studies as non-resident senior adviser with the International Security Program. He currently is chair of strategic studies and head of the School of International Relations at the University of St. Andrews. … Liz Bowman is joining Williams as VP of government affairs. She previously was VP of comms for the American Exploration and Production Council. ENGAGED — Zane Glauber, head of strategic opportunities at Galaxy Blockchain, and Melissa Miller, U.S. defense marketing lead at Palantir, got engaged on Oct. 27 at their favorite getaway in Vermont. The couple met on Hinge in New York and had their first date at Alice in the village. Pic — Thomas Bradbury, policy and advocacy director for the American Conservative Union (CPAC), and Clara Diaz, legislative assistant for Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn), got engaged yesterday at the Giardino delle Rose next to the Piazzale Michelangelo in Florence, Italy. They were introduced through mutual friends in Washington D.C., in early 2020. Pic — Diana Eisner, VP of policy and advocacy at USTelecom, and Morgan McCreary, assistant general at Independence Pet Group, got engaged last night. Morgan proposed in Founders Park in Old Town. The couple met on Hinge in January 2021. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) … Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.) … Michael Dukakis (9-0!) … Katie Packer Beeson … Newsmax’s Jenn Pellegrino … Jeff Brownlee … Phyllis Cuttino of the Climate Reality Project … Christie Stephenson … Paul Brathwaite of Federal Street Strategies … POLITICO’s Anthony Adragna, Alfred Ng and Ryan Hendrixson … Renuka Rayasam … Katie Fricchione ... Gabby Adler … Amie Kershner … Quentin Fulks … Minh-Thu Pham … Tara Rountree … Amy Rosenbaum ... Brian Babcock-Lumish ... Christian Haines … Shawn Rusterholz … Stuart Rosenberg ... Sky Gallegos … Bob Van Heuvelen … Charlie Hurt … former Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) and Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.) … Julian Gewirtz … CAA’s Rachel Adler … Anna Wintour … Petraeus Center’s Brian Babcock-Lumish Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Bethany Irvine and Andrew Howard. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misidentified the author of an article about evacuations in Gaza. It was Oriana Pawlyk.
| | | | A message from Amway: Amway owns and operates nearly 6,000 acres of certified organic farmland. Its flagship brand, Nutrilite, is the only global vitamin and dietary supplement brand to grow, harvest and process plants on its own certified organic farms. All of these farms utilize strictly natural alternatives – free from harmful chemicals – for pesticides, fertilizers and other farming treatments. The company is boosting its use of regenerative agriculture practices, designed to help heal the land and conserve clean water. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
