Two new players, lots of old problems

From: POLITICO Playbook - Saturday Oct 28,2023 03:12 pm
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POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

DRIVING THE DAY

BULLETIN — Lewiston Sun Journal: “‘It’s over’: Body of mass shooting suspect found, ending dayslong manhunt in Maine”

Dean Phillips holds a rally outside of the N.H. Statehouse.

Despite Rep. Dean Phillips' (D-Minn.) long odds to knock Joe Biden off the nomination, he could still cause problems for the president. | Gaelen Morse/Getty Images

GETTING TO KNOW YOU — It was the week of Unknown Man meets Unsparing Spotlight.

Between new House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON, whose Google searches look like an Apple stock chart, and Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.), whose decision to primary President JOE BIDEN has some Democrats suddenly questioning their gelato purchases, we’re getting quickly up to speed on two big new political players.

We’ll start with the latter. Phillips made his run official Friday in Concord, N.H., just before the state’s presidential filing deadline. There’s no world in which Phillips’ campaign is anything but the longest of long shots. He has three months to introduce himself to millions of Democrats who have already accepted (many begrudgingly) that Biden’s their guy in 2024, and he’s focusing on New Hampshire, a state where Biden isn’t even on the ballot and that might not even have delegates voting on the nomination.

— In a new column, our Jack Shafer calls the run “pointless.”

“If Phillips thinks Biden’s approval numbers portend his defeat at the hand of DONALD TRUMP next year, which could very well be the case, Phillips must have plans to improve those numbers if he’s so lucky to take Biden’s place on the ballot but continue those policies,” he writes. “But if that were such a doable task, wouldn’t it make more sense to simply give his secret plan to Biden for execution?”

— Biden world is publicly giving the Phillips campaign a shoulder shrug. But, as our colleagues Elena Schneider and Lisa Kashinsky write, “just below the surface, there are clear signs that the Biden team is paying attention. The campaign sent out a fundraising email within hours of Phillips’ official launch, signed by Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ, titled: ‘Minnesota loves Joe Biden.’

“And, throughout the day, allies and operatives working on the reelect offered stray shards of criticism both at Phillips and at STEVE SCHMIDT, the former Republican strategist turned vocal anti-Donald Trump critic who is now a top strategist for Phillips’ bid.” (Playbook can definitely attest to that.)

— There’s good reason for their concern, Steve Shepard writes this morning, given that Phillips’ early messaging has been heavily focused on the incumbent’s age, which “could further expose a major Biden vulnerability at a time when the president is desperate to shore up his poll numbers in battleground states” ahead of a likely Trump rematch.

“Biden’s biggest weak spot,” he continues, “isn’t just being exploited by Republicans, and he won’t just have to figure out how to neutralize those attacks in next year’s general. Anything Phillips does to emphasize Biden’s age could amplify GOP messaging.”

 

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House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) departs a vote at the U.S. Capitol.

Speaker Mike Johnson faces a steep task in getting up to speed in fundraising as House Republicans prepare to defend their majority. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

And then there’s the fresh face who has already gained major power: Speaker Johnson.

POLITICO has been all over the story all week. Here’s our latest on the Louisiana Republican’s rise and his future predicaments:

  • Daniella Diaz on how Johnson positioned himself for the gavel: “The record shows Johnson’s ascent was no accident. It was the culmination of a deliberate series of moves aimed at positioning himself for greater power. Since Johnson’s first run for Congress, the now four-term Louisianan has always ensured he is in line ideologically with the most conservative faction of the House GOP — without going to their tactical extremes.”
  • Jordain Carney on the GOP divides that haven’t disappeared: “Johnson will now have to deal with the kind of nasty infighting that [KEVIN McCARTHY] couldn’t control, and the looming Nov. 17 shutdown deadline will test how he navigates a longstanding fight between his party’s two factions. Johnson wants to pass a short-term spending patch … but he’s already getting hard resistance from a handful of right flank members.”
  • Alice Miranda Ollstein and Meredith Lee Hill on the anti-abortion movement’s great expectations: “[Johnson] downplayed the chance of action on a federal abortion ban during an interview with Sean Hannity. … Still, abortion opponents’ hopes for Johnson remain high. … [They] pointed to Johnson’s hardline record of support for their cause as proof that he’ll eventually deliver no matter what he says, or doesn’t say, in interviews.”

Meanwhile, the NYT’s Shane Goldmacher takes a dive into the “deep sense of uncertainty” Johnson is facing on the fundraising front. We’ve shared a few statistics this week illustrating just how foreign Johnson is to the big-dollar fundraising game, but this graf is still gobsmacking:

“Mr. McCarthy’s political operation brought in more than 100 times the amount of money that Mr. Johnson has collected so far in 2023 — $78 million to roughly $608,000, according to federal records and public disclosures. And in Mr. Johnson’s entire congressional career, dating to his first run in 2016, the Louisiana Republican has raised a total of $6.1 million — less than Mr. McCarthy’s average monthly take this year.”

Certainly Johnson will be able to take the reins of the existing GOP fundraising infrastructure and ramp up quickly. But Goldmacher points out that Johnson will face unique challenges, from the GOP’s “glaring financial gap” with Democrats to the “sense of uncertainty among top Republicans [about] how Mr. Johnson’s hard-line positions on social issues … will play with some of the party’s key financiers.”

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS have nothing on their public schedules.

On the trail

Trump, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, NIKKI HALEY, former VP MIKE PENCE, Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.), CHRIS CHRISTIE, North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM and VIVEK RAMASWAMY are scheduled to speak today at the Republican Jewish Coalition's annual conference in Las Vegas.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel, Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023.

Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip on Saturday, Oct. 28. | Ohad Zwigenberg/AP Photo

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. THE LATEST IN ISRAEL: Israel earlier today “expanded its ground operation in Gaza, sending in tanks and infantry backed by massive strikes from the air and sea,” AP’s Isabel Debre, Julia Frankel and Sam Magdy report from Jerusalem. “The bombardment, described by Gaza residents as the most intense of the war, also knocked out most communications in Gaza. This largely cut off the besieged enclave’s 2.3 million people from the world, while enabling the Israeli military to control the narrative in a new stage of fighting.”

The Israeli Defense Forces released a message this morning urging citizens of Gaza to “relocate south immediately” as a “temporary” measure while the conflict unfolds.

The State Department yesterday “recommended that U.S. citizens in Lebanon evacuate while flights are available due to an “unpredictable security situation” amid the escalating regional conflict,” Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing writes.

2. MEETING OF THE MINDS: Biden and Chinese President XI JINPING have reached an agreement to meet when countries come together for next month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, AP’s Didi Tang, Matthew Lee and Aamer Madhani report, noting that the exact details of the meeting are still being worked out by the two sides. It comes after a meeting yesterday between Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN.

3. RECKONING AMONG THE PINES: “After Shooting, Maine Senators in the Spotlight on Guns,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman: “The mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine, coupled with a conservative Democratic congressman’s reversal on an assault weapons ban, has turned the spotlight on the state’s two senators, SUSAN COLLINS, a moderate Republican, and ANGUS KING, a Democrat-leaning independent, both of whom are skeptical about banning military-style rifles.”

Related read: “What we know about the victims of the Maine mass shooting,” by CNN’s Jeanne Bonner, Jay Croft and Alaa Elassar

4. TAKING NO CHANCES: Trump’s Make America Great Again super PAC is ramping up for ads against DeSantis in Iowa, “a shift in strategy after months of focusing their messaging on their likely general election opponent,” NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Shane Goldmacher report. The ad campaign will total “hundreds of thousands” of dollars and “aims to paint Mr. DeSantis, with less than three months before the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, as insufficiently conservative, by accusing him of supporting statehood for Puerto Rico.”

The response: “DeSantis’s team took something of a victory lap over the existence of the ad, with ANDREW ROMEO, a spokesman, saying it showed that ‘after months of pounding their chest that they already had the race won, Team Trump is now being forced to publicly admit that Ron DeSantis is climbing in Iowa, and is a dire threat to their chances of securing the nomination.’”

5. WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS: While much of the early attention in the presidential primary has been on Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada will also be an early indicator of Trump’s distancing ability. “Most of the Republican presidential candidates are in Las Vegas for the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual meeting, which has taken on greater significance this year because of the Israel-Hamas war,” AP’s Gabe Stern writes from Las Vegas. “Trump, the front-runner for the party’s nomination, will follow his speech before that group with an evening appearance at a campaign organizing event where his team will try to lock in commitments from voters who may attend the Feb. 8 caucuses.”

Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser notes that Trump’s appearance at the event will mark just the second time that the faraway frontrunner has participated in an event with the rest of the 2024 GOP field.

6. ABORTION FALLOUT: The ambiguous language that provides exceptions for abortions in the more than two dozen bans that have followed the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has created some dangerous and uncertain situations for doctors across the country, WaPo’s Caroline Kitchener and Dan Diamond report. “Prompted by numerous prominent cases in which women became critically ill after being turned away from hospitals, the issue has spawned debate in state legislatures, several high-profile lawsuits and a standoff with Biden administration officials who say the procedure should be covered by emergency care laws.

“But behind that public controversy is a little-known struggle between doctors making life-or-death decisions at great personal risk and hospital administrators navigating untested legal terrain, political pressure from antiabortion lawmakers, and fears of lost funding, a Washington Post investigation found.”

Related read: “Misinformation is flowing ahead of Ohio abortion vote. Some is coming from a legislative website,” by AP’s Julie Carr Smyth and Christine Fernando in Columbus, Ohio

7. FOR YOUR RADAR: “U.S. Freezes Gun Exports, Reviews Backing of Firearm Industry,” by Bloomberg’s Michael Riley: “The Commerce Department is halting exports of most US-made firearms for 90 days and reviewing its support of the country’s biggest gun trade show to ensure such backing ‘does not undermine US policy interests’ — steps that could slow two decades of growth of gun sales abroad. … The freeze doesn’t apply to Israel, Ukraine and about 40 other countries that are part of an export-control agreement.”

8. THE BRAVE NEW WORLD: The Biden administration is preparing an executive order to “deploy numerous federal agencies to monitor the risks of artificial intelligence and develop new uses for the technology while attempting to protect workers,” our colleagues Mohar Chatterjee and Rebecca Kern report. “The order, expected to be issued as soon as Monday, would streamline high-skilled immigration, create a raft of new government offices and task forces and pave the way for the use of more AI in nearly every facet of life touched by the federal government, from health care to education, trade to housing, and more.”

Related read: “AI has arrived in your doctor’s office. Washington doesn’t know what to do about it,” by Daniel Payne

9. THE LONG WAR AGAINST THE CFPB: “Payday lenders aim to evade federal probes as borrowers plead for help,” by WaPo’s Tony Romm: “The probes have stalled largely as a result of an industry-led lawsuit against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that now rests in the hands of the Supreme Court — even as low-income borrowers beg regulators to crack down on alleged predatory lending. At the heart of the standoff are short-term lenders that offer a wide variety of loans to low-income Americans with poor credit, urgent financial needs and few other places to turn for help.”

 

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CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 16 keepers

Political cartoon

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

“Michael Cohen Waited Five Years for This,” by Gabrielle Bluestone for N.Y. Mag: “In court, face-to-face with Donald Trump.”

“No One Understands Corporate Boycotts Like This Former Trump Researcher,” by Bloomberg’s Joshua Green: “Corporate America is a new battlefield in US politics, and Matt Oczkowski's insights have become key to navigating the culture wars.”

“‘It’s Like Our Country Exploded’: Canada’s Year of Fire,” by David Wallace-Wells for NYT Magazine: “Endless evacuations, unimaginable smoke and heat, 45 million acres burned — is this the nation’s new normal?”

“The pandemic has faded in this Michigan county. The mistrust never ended,” by WaPo’s Greg Jaffe and Patrick Marley: “Sierra Schuetz’s government job feeding the poor in conservative Ottawa County became a passion. Could it survive the suspicions that multiplied alongside covid?”

“Watch This Guy Work, and You’ll Finally Understand the TikTok Era,” by Brendan Koerner for Wired: “The creator economy is fragmented and chaotic. Talent manager Ursus Magana can (almost) make sense of it, with a frenetic formula for gaming the algorithms.”

“The Science Behind Basketball’s Biggest Debate,” by The Atlantic’s Ross Andersen: “Playing in the NBA really is harder now.”

“The Truth Behind the Hidden Demon in The Exorcist,” by Vanity Fair’s Anthony Breznican: “A deep investigation into a single frame of film—and a bizarre mystery that’s lasted for decades.”

“Why We Can’t Leave Britney Spears Alone,” by GQ’s Alana Hope Levinson: “The pop icon’s revealing new memoir is flying off the shelves, but Timberlake tea isn’t the only reason we still care.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

George W. Bush threw out the first pitch at the Texas Rangers’ World Series home opener. (He bounced it in, and the Rangers won 6-5.)

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at the British Ambassador's residence for a party celebrating “Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine,” by Ret. Gen. David Petraeus and Andrew Roberts ($32.49): British Ambassador Karen Pierce, Mike Hayden, Greta Van Susteren and John Coale, Josh Dawsey, Phil Rucker, Vivek Viswanathan, Virginia Boney, Ben Cantrell, Sam Feist, John McCarthy, Rory Gates, Niamh King, Anja Manuel, Bob Barnett, Harry Rhoads, Neil Brown and Eric Braverman.

— SPOTTED at a birthday celebration for Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova hosted by Adrienne Arsht yesterday: Australia Ambassador Kevin Rudd, Mexican Ambassador Esteban Moctezuma Barragán, Polish Ambassador Marek Magierowski, French Ambassador Laurent Bili, Bob Barnett, Ian Brzezinski, Sam Feist, Ilan Goldfajn, Matt Kaminski, Andrea Mitchell, Luis Alberto Moreno and Margaret Brennan. Pic

— SPOTTED on Thursday for a book party for Chef José Andrés hosted by Adrienne Arsht: Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.), Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, Spanish Ambassador Santiago Cabanas, Michael Chertoff, Chris Dodd, Ellen Granberg, Lloyd Hand, Mary Jordan, Kevin Sullivan and Jorge Zamanillo. Pic

— SPOTTED yesterday afternoon at Zaytinya for a Something Major Power Lunch hosted by Randi Braun: Jen O'Shea, Kaitlyn Pritchard, Pamela Murphy, Jane DiMarchi, Ryann Hill, Kate Meissner and Kelley Raymond.

TRANSITIONS — Riley Nelson will be senior manager of comms and marketing at Meridian International Center. She previously was senior comms manager at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. … Chavonne Ludick is now comms director for Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.). She most recently was press secretary for Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.). … Sarah Morgenthau will be special representative for commercial and business affairs at the State Department. She previously was deputy assistant secretary at the Commerce Department and is a DHS alum.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Sam Sutton, co-author of POLITICO’s Morning Money newsletter, and Sara Kosyk, a tour operator for Tauck, on Tuesday night welcomed Ilana Susan Sutton.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) … Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova … HHS’ Rachel Levine Bill Gates Jason Rodriguez … POLITICO’s Kara Tabor and Renee Klahr Lisa JenkinsAndrew CooperJustin Discigil David Finkel … CNN’s Peter Morris and Margaret Given Kyle Parker Jonny Slemrod of Harbinger Strategies … Rob Shrum Steve Hartell of Amazon … Doug Band … ABC’s Quinn ScanlanCyré Velez of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office … Adam Bozzi ... CBS’ Meghan Caravano Griffin Anderson of BCW Global … former Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.) … Teresa Vilmain Bridget Walsh of Boehringer Ingelheim … Zach Hunter Jessie Hernandez of CapGemini Government Solutions … WaPo’s Caroline Sullivan

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) … Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin … Jared Kushner … Jonathan Turley.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis … Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) … Arnold Schwarzenegger. Panel: Stephen Hayes, Kelly O’Donnell, Toluse Olorunnipa and Jen Psaki.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) … Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson. Legal panel: Charles Stimson and Ted Williams. Law enforcement panel: Charles Marino and James Butts.

ABC “This Week”: retired Gen. Abe Abrams. Panel: Donna Brazile, Rick Klein, Sarah Isgur and Alex Burns.

CBS “Face the Nation”: national security adviser Jake Sullivan … Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) … Robert Mardini … retired Gen. Joseph Votel.

CNN “State of the Union”: national security adviser Jake Sullivan … Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.).

MSNBC “PoliticsNation”: Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) … Rep. Troy Carter (D-La.).

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Bethany Irvine and Andrew Howard.

Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the date Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin lunched with the Peruvian ambassador. It was Tuesday.

 

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