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Presented by Amazon: The unofficial guide to official Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | FOR YOUR RADAR — “Americans divided over Israel response to Hamas attacks, AP-NORC poll shows,” by AP’s Chris Megerian and Linley Sanders: “Americans have become more likely to describe Israel as an ally that shares U.S. interests and values since the war with Hamas began, but they’re divided over whether Israel has gone too far in its response to last month’s attack.”
|  Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear speaks during an election night rally after he was elected to a second term in Louisville, Ky., Nov. 7. | Timothy D. Easley/AP | ANOTHER BIG NIGHT FOR DEMS — We’re beginning to sense a pattern here. Never mind Americans’ nagging concerns about the economy. Never mind an expanding portfolio of global crises. And definitely never mind those year-out presidential polls. There’s no two ways about it: It was another good election night for Democrats, nearly across the board. Kentucky Gov. ANDY BESHEAR notched a solid reelection win in a ruby-red state. A clean sweep of the Virginia legislature showed the party still packs a punch in the suburbs. And the triumph of Issue 1 in Ohio (plus, well, nearly every other major race) proved that abortion is still motivating voters in a big way, and the GOP’s stabs at counter-messaging aren’t working. So what does it mean for 2024? Democrats are waking up this morning to two theories of the case as it relates to President JOE BIDEN’s quest for reelection:
- Time to chill out. Polls are one thing, actual votes are another. These are not election returns consistent with a president whose approval numbers are struggling to break 40% and who is falling badly behind DONALD TRUMP, the most divisive politician of his generation. Beshear won despite tons of GOP money being spent to tie him to Biden, so there’s plenty of room for the incumbent to recover.
- Time to freak out. The polls are absolutely right: The problem isn’t the Democratic brand; it’s Joe Biden. The anti-MAGA coalition that showed up in 2018, 2020 and 2022 is still intact, sure, but it’s not going to show up for just anybody. Trump is certain to bring out his own special universe of voters next year, and Americans are giving every possible signal that they won’t be happy if the alternative is an 81-year-old Biden.
You can guess which theory the White House is embracing. After a flurry of stories highlighting Democratic bedwetting following the weekend’s shock NYT-Siena polls, the overwhelming sentiment floating around Biden world overnight was vindication for their keep-calm-and-carry-on attitude. There was celebrating underway in Wilmington, Del., where senior analytics adviser BECCA SIEGEL helmed a war room at Biden campaign HQ, and in Miami, where campaign manager JULIE CHAVEZ RODRIGUEZ and other top aides prepped for the Republican presidential debate. At the White House, Biden himself basked in the moment — making call after call to the night’s big winners, from Beshear to GABE AMO — the former Biden staffer who will be the first Black person to represent Rhode Island in Congress. And in text chains everywhere, we’re told, lots of Dark Brandon memes were being exchanged. Expect a big push from Biden’s allies in the coming days to reset and reframe. As one Biden adviser told Playbook last night: “I have a hard time squaring all the negativity around the president and his agenda and then the continued performance tonight in Kentucky and all the other special elections in ’23. … The best predictor of voting behavior is voting behavior.” Added a 2020 campaign alum, “Pundits say if Biden is doing X, the smart money is X will fail. Then X succeeds and they pretend they were silent the whole time. Rinse and repeat. At what point do we start calling it dumbass money?” THE LEDEALLS … POLITICO: “For now, the results on Tuesday — taken together with a string of special elections throughout the year that showed Democratic candidates outperforming Biden’s vote shares in districts across the country — serve as a powerful counterpoint to the party’s doom-and-gloom over the president’s poll numbers.” WaPo: “As for how much solace this night provides a year before the 2024 election? There’s a real question about whether Republicans just don’t turn out when Trump isn’t on the ballot. Beshear was an incumbent. Virginia leans blue. And even if Democrats as a whole are well-poised, that doesn’t necessarily mean Biden, with his various liabilities, will be able to take advantage.” AP: “Democrats have performed well in recent special elections and did better than expected in 2022. It increasingly seems like the party starts from a position of strength. But it’s not clear that translates to its 80-year-old president, who faces widespread skepticism about his job performance and whether he is too old to serve a second term.” THE KEY RACES … — OHIO: Issue 1 passes, 57% to 43%, enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution. Big picture: “Ohio just became the first GOP-controlled state to affirmatively vote to protect abortion rights post-Roe,” notes Alice Miranda Ollstein. The analysis: “The path to victory wasn’t easy,” write the Cincy Enquirer’s Jessie Balmert and Kayla Bennett. “Ohio Republicans and abortion opponents threw up hurdle after hurdle to try to block Issue 1. … Nevertheless, Issue 1 proponents persisted. They outspent opponents on television, 2-to-1, boosted financially by Planned Parenthood, the American Civil Liberties Union and out-of-state, progressive groups. They focused on removing the government from personal, often heart-wrenching, decisions. They highlighted the aftermath of Ohio's abortion bans, which sent a 10-year-old rape victim to Indiana for the procedure.” — KENTUCKY: Democratic Gov. ANDY BESHEAR defeats DANIEL CAMERON, 53% to 48%. The analysis: “Beshear maintained a high level of popularity in his first term as governor despite being a Democrat in Kentucky’s increasingly Republican-leaning political climate,” write the Lexington Herald Leader’s Tessa Duvall and Austin Horn. “Tuesday’s results in Kentucky could provide a playbook for Democratic candidates in other parts of the country, experts say. Several national outlets have profiled Beshear’s feel-good strategy on infrastructure and the economy while hitting his opponent who focused so much energy and campaign dollars on Biden.” Fun fact: “The Kentucky governor's race has predicted the winner of the next presidential election in the last five presidential cycles,” notes CNN’s Ryan Struyk. — VIRGINIA: Dems flip the state House and hold the state Senate, depriving Republican Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN of a governing trifecta. The analysis: “Democrats’ sweeping victories amounted to a sharp setback for Youngkin as he seeks to raise his national profile as a potential last-minute presidential contender,” write WaPo’s Gregory Schneider and Laura Vozzella. “Youngkin had hoped to set a new model for how Republicans everywhere could win on the abortion issue, campaigning on the promise that if voters gave Republicans control over both chambers of the General Assembly, he would pass a ban on abortions after 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.” Fun fact: Democratic General Assembly candidate SUSANNA GIBSON, who was written off after a sex tape scandal, lost by fewer than 1,000 votes. OTHER BIG RACES …
- Mississippi: Republican Gov. TATE REEVES defeated Democrat BRANDON PRESLEY, 52% to 47%. Mississippi Today
- Pennsylvania: Democrat DAN McCAFFERY won an open seat on the state Supreme Court, giving Dems a 5-2 majority. The Inquirer
- New Jersey: Democrats expanded their majority in the General Assembly by five seats while holding their Senate majority. POLITICO
- Ohio: Voters legalized recreational marijuana for adults. POLITICO
- Philadelphia: CHERELLE PARKER became the first woman elected mayor of Philadelphia. The Inquirer
- Houston: State Sen. JOHN WHITMIRE leads U.S. Rep. SHEILA JACKSON LEE, 43% to 35%, as the two Democrats head towards a runoff in the mayoral race. Texas Tribune
- Indianapolis: JOE HOGSETT won a third term as mayor over a well-funded GOP challenger. Indy Star
- Long Island: ED ROMAINE was elected Suffolk County executive, becoming the first Republican in two decades to hold the office — a major suburban pickup for the GOP. NYT
Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Are you a bed-wetter or a level-setter? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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Hear from employees. | | | LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE — The third Republican presidential debate kicks off at 8 p.m. tonight in Miami, airing live on NBC and its streaming platforms, with Lester Holt, Kristen Welker and Hugh Hewitt moderating. The participants … RON DeSANTIS, NIKKI HALEY, VIVEK RAMASWAMY, CHRIS CHRISTIE and TIM SCOTT, with DeSantis in center stage as the highest-polling candidate in attendance. The leitmotif … The debate's centerpiece will be the rivalry between DeSantis and Haley to position themselves as the most viable alternative to Trump, and the other candidates’ struggle to inject themselves back into that conversation. The logistics … An audience of nearly 1,500 is expected at the Knight Concert Hall at the Adrienne Arsht Center for Performing Arts in Miami. The topics … We’re told the two-hour debate “will look closely at the national security implications of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as a series of domestic political developments.” The format … The moderators will ostensibly have more control than in the prior two debates: Candidates are not entitled to respond if their name is spoken. Related read: “5 Things to Watch at the Third G.O.P. Presidential Debate,” by NYT’s Adam Nagourney and Nicholas Nehamas
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House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) emerges from his office at the Capitol, Nov. 1. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | JOHNSON VS. THE CR — Meanwhile on Capitol Hill, House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is facing his first big spending showdown with Democrats, and with nine days until a potential shutdown, even his own leadership team is still wondering what the plan is going to be. Does he follow in the footsteps of his predecessor KEVIN McCARTHY and put forward a clean continuing resolution, punting the clash to a more opportune moment? Or does he pick a fight with Democrats now and demand concessions for keeping the government open? Johnson and his rank-and-file discussed possible strategies during a closed-door meeting yesterday, but the session appeared to only further divide the conference. Conservatives are stumping for a so-called “laddered” CR that would stagger funding deadlines for various parts of the government, while appropriators and other veteran members are mocking the idea and ready to accept the inevitable kick of the can. “You don’t like one fiscal cliff? Cool. Here’s a dozen fiscal cliffs. Have fun,” jested one senior GOP aide. Decision time is coming quickly for the speaker, who will need to telegraph his next steps in the coming days, given the Senate’s time-consuming procedural rules. He didn’t have much to say yesterday, literally running from questions about his plans at one point — and causing one of your Playbook authors to lose a heel. What’s at stake for Johnson? Not the speakership itself: Conservatives will almost certainly give Johnson a pass if he ends up backing a clean CR with no concessions. But after getting their hopes up that might pursue a different path, a punt now could cost Johnson political capital he might prefer to save for another occasion.
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Through the Amazon Grow Our Talent program, John turned a seasonal warehouse job into a tech career. “There's not many opportunities where you can start off working at the warehouse and translate that into a tech job,” said John. Learn about career advancement opportunities. Sponsored by Amazon   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate is in. HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA and DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS will testify before the Appropriations Committee at 9 a.m. on the president’s supplemental funding request. The House will meet at 9 a.m. The Foreign Affairs Committee will hold a hearing on U.S. support for Israel at 2 p.m. 3 things to watch …
- Are the censure wars finally over? Maybe for now: The House voted 234-188 last night to rebuke Rep. RASHIDA TLAIB (D-Mich.) over her comments defending the Palestinian struggle against Israel (which, to many ears, sounded like a call for Israel’s elimination). Rep. BRIAN MAST (R-Fla.) also faces a Democratic-led censure push over his own comments critical of Palestinians. But Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) pulled back on her own anti-Tlaib resolution, and Democrats held back from an anti-MTG measure. One thing’s for sure: The bar for censure has been irrevocably lowered.
- Can the House GOP get their approps push back on track? The House spent yesterday evening plowing through amendments on the fiscal 2024 Transportation-HUD bill, only to see final passage of the bill scratched moments before the vote. Opposition from Northeast Corridor Republicans to massive Amtrak cuts are the proximate cause of the snag, but it’s a symptom of broader difficulties the GOP is having putting forth a partisan spending agenda.
- Is TOMMY TUBERVILLE eyeing an off ramp? The Alabama senator still isn’t backing down from his blockade of military nominees following a closed-door GOP conference confab yesterday, but he came out of the meeting saying he was open to “five or six” options that might put the holds to bed, Connor O’Brien, Joe Gould, Ursula Perano and Katherine Tully-McManus report. Notably, Tuberville’s rhetoric seems to soften a bit afterward: “I understand the urgency. I’m not just being hard-headed about this. I understand we’ve gotten into some unique problems the last few weeks.”
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning with VP KAMALA HARRIS. In the afternoon, Harris will attend a roundtable with climate leaders. Later, the VP and Second Gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will host a reception in celebration of Diwali. On the trail Trump will hold a campaign rally in Hialeah, Fla., this evening.
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DOJ Special Counsel David Weiss returns for a transcribed interview before members of the House Judiciary Committee yesterday. | Alex Brandon/AP | THE IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY — DOJ Special Counsel DAVID WEISS denied that he was prevented from pursuing charges against HUNTER BIDEN in a nearly seven-hour interview before the House Judiciary Committee yesterday. But Weiss’ lengthy testimony did little to assuage House Republicans concerns that there was government interference in the investigation, AP’s Farnoush Amiri and Lindsay Whitehurst report: “Lawmakers leaving the interview with Weiss described it as ‘tedious’ and ‘a waste of time’ as the federal prosecutor was bound by Justice Department rules that limit his ability to talk about an ongoing investigation.” House Republicans also used the interview to zero in on the timeline of Weiss’ appointment as special counsel as evidence of political meddling in the investigation, Jordain Carney reports: “[Weiss] was named special counsel over the summer. He reiterated during the closed-door meeting that he didn’t ask for that authority until August, when he was granted it.” “Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) told reporters that Weiss disclosed that he requested ‘special attorney’ status in Spring 2022 … But the Ohio Republican stopped short of saying that Weiss explicitly told lawmakers that he was denied special attorney status.” More top reads:
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The White House is continuing to urge caution following recent comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. | Christophe Ena/AP | LATEST IN THE MIDDLE EAST — As Israeli ground forces continue their invasion deeper into the Gaza Strip, Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU told ABC’s David Muir that the country could control Gaza’s security for “an indefinite period” after the war is over. But the White House is continuing to urge caution, with National Security Spokesman JOHN KIRBY telling reporters yesterday that President Biden “maintains his position that reoccupation by Israeli forces is not the right thing to do. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is hopeful that the Israeli government is “ever so slightly” shifting their views on pausing the conflict, Alex Ward reports: “The Biden administration would like longer, geographically broader pauses in fighting centered around the safety of Palestinians in Gaza. Israel, for the moment, has placed conditions on when it would temporarily lay down arms.” Related read: “Why the U.S. isn’t stopping this war, and other Middle East realities,” by Nahal Toosi, Alexander Ward And Lara Seligman More top reads:
TRUMP CARDS
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Some Republicans who doubted former President Donald Trump's potential to win the 2024 election are changing their minds. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | EMPIRE STATE OF MIND — Donald Trump’s “volatile performance” when taking the witness stand this week in his Manhattan civil fraud case is just a taste of what’s yet to come as the former president faces at least three scheduled criminal trials in the next year, Erica Orden reports. The gist: “[I]n some ways, the upcoming criminal trials will make the circus surrounding the fraud trial look like a sideshow. The stakes will be even higher, the political temperature will be even hotter and the restrictions on Trump’s conduct will be more onerous than the relatively lax procedures of the civil fraud case.” Related reads: “Highlights of Donald Trump’s hours on the witness stand at his New York civil fraud trial,” by AP’s Michael R. Sisak and Jennifer Peltz … “Ivanka Trump to Testify in Fraud Suit Against Family Business,” NYT 2024 WATCH ALL HAIL THE ROBOT KING — As Silicon Valley liberals grow increasingly concerned over the 2024 election, Open AI CEO SAM ALTMAN has made moves to back long-shot Biden challenger Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.), Puck’s Theodore Schleifer reports: “[O]ne Phillips campaign adviser told me that Altman would be ‘integral,’ even ‘embedded’ in the operation.” WHAT REBECCA LAMBE IS READING — “Nevada GOP Senate hopeful clears up disclosure omission, faces FEC complaint,” by The Las Vegas Sun’s Casey Harrison: “A recently filed amended financial disclosure report from … SAM BROWN now includes his involvement with a pro-life nonprofit. But the candidate now finds himself the focus of a complaint over use of funds from a political action committee he formed in 2022.” HONEY BADGER DON’T CARE — Trump is once again pushing Wisconsin State Assembly Speaker ROBIN VOS to overhaul the state's election system, criticizing Vos for not impeaching the state’s election commission administrator, MEAGAN WOLFE, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Molly Beck reports. THE WHITE HOUSE JUDGMENT DAY — “Senate confirms Biden's 150th judge,” by NBC News’ Sahil Kapur: “Back-to-back votes Tuesday made Kenly KIYA KATO and JULIA KOBICK district court judges in California and Massachusetts, respectively. … Reshaping the courts with more public defenders and greater diversity has been a high priority for Biden and [Senate Majority Leader CHUCK] SCHUMER.”
| | | | PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | IN MEMORIAM — “Elizabeth Moynihan, impassioned scholar of Mughal gardens, dies at 94,” by WaPo’s Emily Langer: “Moynihan, who died Nov. 7 at 94, was known in the political world as the savvy campaign manager who helped elect her husband to the Senate in 1976 and hold his seat during 24 years in office. … Her ‘head and heart,’ she once said, remained in India, where Moynihan served from 1973 to 1975 as U.S. ambassador. … [S]he immersed herself in the country’s history and emerged from her studies a renowned scholar of Mughal gardens.” OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the National Academy of Social Insurance’s Robert M. Ball Award event at the Kennedy Center Reach last night honoring David Blumenthal and Angela Glover Blackwell: Cecilia Conrad, Bill Hoagland, Tricia Neuman, Robert Greenstein, Chris Jennings, Lynette Rawlings, Reggie Williams, Larry Atkins, Wendell Primus, Max Richtman, Susan Dentzer, Gretchen Jacobson, Shaun O’Brien, Jeff Cruz, Kathleen Romig, Louise Sheiner, Howard Fluhr, Jeff Holland, Rebecca Vallas, Aparna Mathur, Robert Espinoza, Merrill Friedman, Brian Coyne, Chris O’Flinn, Fred Riccardi, Lawrence Johnston, Sue Ducat, Joel Eskovitz, Virginia Reno, Lauren Lyles-Stolz, Fay Cook, Tyler Bond, Melissa Grober-Morrow, Katrina Bledsoe, David Bowen and Bill Arnone. — Tod Sedgwick, the former U.S. Ambassador to the Slovak Republic, held a 75th birthday celebration on last night at the Metropolitan Club, featuring a performance of his rock band “Diplomatic Immunity” including Andras Simonyi, Florin Vodita, Shay Saadoune, Grigorij Meseznikov, Peter Gogola and Steve Houk. SPOTTED: Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Slovakian Amb. Radovan Javorčík, Bill and Wendy Luers, Christy Brown and James Blanchard. TRANSITIONS — Scott Hinkle is now chief of staff for Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.). He most recently was D.C. chief of staff and counsel for Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.). … Casey Clemmons is now scheduling director in DOT’s Office of the Secretary. He most recently was strategic adviser to the Administrator at the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. … Rachel Wolbers is joining Glen Echo Group as a VP. She previously was head of global engagement at Meta’s Oversight Board and completed a Fulbright in New Zealand. … … Jackson Puckey is now an associate at Bondi Partners. He previously was oversight legislative assistant for Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.). … Alex Bradley is now comms director at Katz Banks Kumin. He previously was strategic comms manager at Crosscut Strategies. … Jenny Zimmer is now senior director of campaigns and organizing at Mothers Out Front. She previously was national organizing director at RepresentUS. WEEKEND WEDDINGS — David Martin, director of government engagement at UL Standards and Engagement and a Harley-Davidson and Samsung alum, and Elisabeth Coats, director of the Homeownership Alliance at the National Community Stabilization Trust and a Senate Appropriations alum, got married Saturday in St. Louis. Earl Flood officiated. The couple originally met at Radici on Capitol Hill, where David ultimately proposed. Pic … SPOTTED: Naomi Zeigler, Shawn Campbell, Adrian Swann, Jonathan Carter, Katie Roback, Shane Waller, Caitlin McKeon, Kyle Wiley, John Nagle, James Arnold and Jake McCurdy. — Adam Peck, deputy production director at POLITICO, and Kyle Fradkin, legislative policy adviser for the County of San Diego, got married Sunday at Josephine Butler Parks Center. They ended the night with drinks at the Little Gay Pub and karaoke at Wok and Roll. Pic via Brittany Diliberto … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) … ABC’s David Muir … Blackstone’s Wayne Berman … Holland & Knight’s Leon Fresco … WaPo’s Tory Newmyer … POLITICO’s Roger Jeannotte and Barbara Van Tine … Matt Sandgren of Innovative Policy … Amazon’s Erin Cohan … Council of State Governments Justice Center’s Jay Nelson … Ira Magaziner … Johanny Adames of the Education Department … AARP’s John Hishta … Weston Loyd … Kelsey Suter of Drive Agency … Courtney Stamm … Latham and Watkins’ Christopher Martin … Bob Jones … Charlotte Law … former FEMA administrator Michael Brown … Laurie Moskowitz … Anshu Siripurapu … FEC Commissioner Shana Broussard Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Bethany Irvine and Andrew Howard.
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