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The question for Speaker Mike Johnson is whether his plan is enough to convince the most rebellious House Republicans to offer him any more leeway than they granted Kevin McCarthy. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | MIKE JOHNSON is speaker of the House because KEVIN McCARTHY pushed through a “clean” continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown and was ousted by right-wingers for it. Forty days later, and Johnson is in the same spot. The McCarthy CR runs out on Friday night and Johnson has vowed to avoid a government shutdown. His solution? A clean CR. Well, technically, it’s one clean CR with two timelines, a parliamentary gimmick that Johnson is hoping is enough to get him past the Friday shutdown deadline. Now, the question for Johnson is whether that’s enough to convince the most rebellious House Republicans to offer him any more leeway than they granted McCarthy. Johnson has no legislative experience at this level, has never chaired a committee and comes from the party’s anti-leadership wing that made governing so difficult for his predecessors. (Remember: In late September he voted against the McCarthy CR, along with 89 other Republicans.) But all of that was a feature, not a bug, during the Speaker Battle Royale of October, when his rare combination of right-wing credentials (Johnson is a 2020 election denier) and pissing off the fewest number of colleagues (not serving in top posts means never having to tell colleagues no) were the essential criteria. Johnson’s CR proposal surprised Democrats. He conceded two crucial policy points to the opposition: (1) There are no spending cuts or poison pill riders in the Johnson CR, and (2) Johnson put Defense in the portion of the CR with the longer deadline of Feb. 2. Democrats would have dismissed out of hand a CR with the kind of steep cuts and right-wing policy changes that many members of the Freedom Caucus have been demanding. They were also worried that if Defense spending was part of the earlier deadline, then they were being set up to vote for GOP spending priorities before the top spending priorities of Democrats. But it’s the earlier deadline of Jan. 19 that includes many Dem priorities in the bills for Agriculture-FDA, Energy-Water, Military Construction-VA and Transportation-HUD. This explains the surprisingly open-minded response from a Senate Dem leadership aide yesterday: “It’s a good thing the Speaker didn’t include unnecessary cuts and kept defense funding with the second group of programs.” And today, Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) was similarly chill about the idea during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I don’t like this laddered CR approach. It looks gimmicky to me, but I’m open to what the House is talking about. The priority has to be keeping the government open, and I think this is a moment where reasonable people in the Senate — and that’s where most of the reasonable people are these days — have to make sure that we are not making the perfect the enemy of the good. I don’t like what the House is talking about, but I’m willing to listen.” The fact that Johnson offered these concessions suggests he’s serious about passing this two-tiered CR and that he knows he needs Democrats to do it Johnson was blunt about his strategy during a call with Republicans yesterday afternoon, when he outlined the plan, per the Washington Examiner: “He also address[ed] likely opposition, saying he knows that not ‘loading this one up with spending cuts and policy riders is a great disappointment to some people’ and that he would like to see those himself, [but] he did not think if they made those cuts and attached the policy riders, the bill could ‘get 217 votes on our side,’ and if he were to add those provisions, ‘you're not going to get a single Democratic vote.’” So what would House conservatives get out of this? Process. They would get the double deadline idea that came out of the House Freedom Caucus, but not the HFC’s cuts and riders. They would get a reprieve from what has become an annual ritual of the holiday season that they have been railing against: getting jammed with an omnibus from the Senate at Christmas. And they would also get a separate debate on the supplemental for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, which is not part of the CR. So what could go wrong? A lot.
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Learn how Amazon supports independent sellers. | | | The White House is not on board, slamming it hard using their new “Extreme Republican Shutdown” branding that reminds us of a certain former president’s novel use of capitalization. On this, the White House is not quite on the same page as Senate Dem leadership. Instead of pocketing the victory of Johnson keeping spending levels at NANCY PELOSI-era levels and not including Defense spending in the first deadline, a White House statement raged, “House Republicans are wasting precious time with an unserious proposal that has been panned by members of both parties” and said that a shutdown — er, “An Extreme Republican Shutdown” — would “put critical national security and domestic priorities at risk, including by forcing service members to work without pay.” Votes from House Democrats could also fail to materialize. Though that is putting the donkey before the cart, because first Johnson has two other votes to worry about. The Rules Committee will take up his proposal tomorrow at 4 p.m. Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas), a GOP member of Rules, was fast out of the gate yesterday condemning the Johnson CR. “My opposition to the clean CR just announced by the Speaker to the @HouseGOP cannot be overstated,” he said. “Funding Pelosi level spending & policies for 75 days - for future ‘promises.’” Even if the rule makes it out of committee, it could get voted down on the House floor. In addition to Roy, Reps. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) and WARREN DAVIDSON (R-Ohio) are publicly opposing the CR. Johnson can afford to lose only four votes. Can Johnson convince GOP opponents of the bill to still vote in favor of the rule? In the old days, that was standard practice, but now, with GOP party unity in tatters, voting against a rule is commonplace. If the rule fails, Johnson could move the bill forward with a two-thirds vote, but that would require a lot of Democrats. Maybe he can get the rule through with GOP votes. But will Dems be there to support a plan the White House has trashed? And that brings us back to the pickle that Johnson is in, the same one that McCarthy couldn’t get out of. At the end of the day, in divided government, he needs Democratic votes, but every Democrat he relies on is like a brick he’s stacking: Eventually, he will create a wall that separates him from his GOP colleagues until one of them cries that he’s betrayed them and offers a motion to vacate. McCarthy used those bricks to get past a debt limit crisis and a government shutdown. (In hindsight, not a bad run considering the crazy dynamics.) Maybe Speaker Johnson can at least get past the current spending stalemate. Finally, so what’s the backup plan? Johnson told his colleagues that if this plan went down, he would push through a yearlong CR with deep cuts to non-defense spending, reportedly at 8%. Johnson also mentioned this threat in a memo to Republicans that was obtained by Playbook: “If Congressional Democrats and President [JOE] BIDEN are unwilling to responsibly finish the important work of completing the FY24 funding bills on this timeline, House Republicans will refocus Washington on FY25, by implementing a full-year CR with appropriate adjustments to meet our national security priorities and demanding the Senate and White House get back to regular order on schedule and without gimmicks.” The strategy here is to convince Democrats to help him pass the two-tiered CR — or else. But couldn’t this threat also incentivize hardline Republicans to do everything they can to torpedo this plan in order to move on to the CR with the deep cuts that they want? Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. SUNDAY BEST … — House Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) on whether he thinks a congressional aid package should include humanitarian assistance for Gaza, on CBS’ “Face the Nation”: “I do, and I think the Israelis do as well. … As this thing progresses, you’re gonna see more of a secure humanitarian zone in the south of Gaza. And I hope the Gulf states that have the wherewithal can also help in this effort. I think they bear a great responsibility as well.” — Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU on how long the war will last, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I don’t think it’s going to take the time that it took the United States and the international coalition to defeat ISIS or to defeat al-Qaida. It took you many years. I don’t think it’s going to be many years. But I’ve set targets and not a deadline, and we’re proceeding as quickly as we can but also as carefully as we can.” — Rep. MIKE LAWLER (R-N.Y.) on his trip to Israel, on ABC’s “This Week”: “For those calling for a cease-fire, they totally misunderstand the situation here. Hamas is not someone, some organization, that is going to abide by a cease-fire. … It’s irresponsible for us to call on Israel to do that when they’re trying to defend themselves. … The oppressor here, the people that are responsible for the deaths in Gaza, is Hamas.” — McCarthy on Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.), on CNN: “His goal was to be the TV congressman. … I think Congress is too important, and the issues are too big, to focus on such small things that Matt tries to. It’s more a division — and it’s focused on himself.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
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Joe Biden is shifting tactics to criticize Donald Trump more often. | Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. HERE COMES 2024: The outlines of a general-election matchup between Biden and DONALD TRUMP are snapping into view, as the two men increasingly go after each other on the trail. Biden is actively shifting tactics to criticize his predecessor more often, having been told he needs to draw a sharper contrast, NBC’s Carol Lee and Kristen Welker report. The Biden campaign yesterday blasted Trump’s reported radical plans for immigration in a second term, per Myah Ward. And the Biden campaign, along with Trump’s GOP rivals, is highlighting Trump’s gaffes and stumbles more, WaPo’s Marisa Iati and Isaac Arnsdorf report. The dimensions of the race were especially striking in the frontrunners’ dueling Veterans Day messages yesterday. Biden’s speech at Arlington National Cemetery emphasized the PACT Act and American troops’ role in fighting evil around the world, Olivia Alafriz reports. In person and on Truth Social, Trump viciously attacked the left as “thugs,” “vermin” and a “threat from within” far worse than America’s enemies abroad, pledging to “root out” his political opponents in a second term, NYT’s Michael Gold reports from Claremont, N.H. He also continued to excoriate special counsel JACK SMITH, per CNN’s Ali Main and Katelyn Polantz. Side by side: “Joe Biden wants to complete his goals on civil rights, taxes, and social services if he’s reelected,” by AP’s Chris Megerian … “Trump’s plans if he returns to the White House include deportation raids, tariffs and mass firings,” by AP’s Jill Colvin 2. SIX-MONTH INVESTIGATION: “Voting group founded by Abrams, once led by Warnock, faces financial scrutiny,” by Brittany Gibson: The New Georgia Project “is conducting its own internal probe into its finances in response to the claims of irregularities … The debt attributed to [former director NSÉ] UFOT … is one of multiple instances of poor financial record-keeping and allegations of misuse of funds uncovered by POLITICO. The New Georgia Project didn’t properly track company expenses that were allegedly prepaid to employees on Visa gift cards and failed to account for salary advances and other expenditures.” 3. BATTLE FOR THE STATES: Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) is planning to leave Congress after this term to focus on running for governor of Virginia in 2025, WaPo’s Laura Vozzella reports from Richmond. The campaign launch could come as soon as tomorrow. Spanberger would likely face Richmond Mayor LEVAR STONEY in the Democratic primary for a seat that will be hotly contested in both parties. Her decision to opt against running for reelection could also leave Democrats with a tricky open seat to defend in a fairly competitive congressional district. 4. GETTING CLOSER TO A CULPRIT: “Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack,” by WaPo’s Shane Harris and Isabelle Khurshudyan: “The officer’s role provides the most direct evidence to date tying Ukraine’s military and security leadership to a controversial act of sabotage that has spawned multiple criminal investigations and that U.S. and Western officials have called a dangerous attack on Europe’s energy infrastructure. … [ROMAN] CHERVINSKY did not act alone and he did not plan the operation … The officer took orders from more senior Ukrainian officials, who ultimately reported to Gen. VALERY ZALUZHNY, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer.”
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“Amazon has created a wonderful environment for small businesses, giving us the tools we need to succeed,” said Adrienne, owner of Blue Henry. Amazon is dedicated to helping small businesses thrive, which is why we provide services and support to foster growth. Learn how. Sponsored by Amazon   | | | 5. BOB VANDER PLAATS VS. THE RNC: The RNC and the Family Leader seem to have smoothed over a clash over whether GOP presidential candidates can attend the Iowa evangelical group’s Thanksgiving forum, CNN’s Aaron Pellish, Veronica Stracqualursi, Ebony Davis and Kit Maher report. The RNC had initially warned the contenders not to take part in anything that could be construed as an alternative debate — sparking defiance from Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, The Des Moines Register’s Phillip Sitter reports. Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) and VIVEK RAMASWAMY are also in for the Family Leader event; Trump is sitting it out. 6. KNOWING THE SPEAKER’S FAMILY: “Kelly Johnson Embodies the Hard-Line Views She Shares With the Speaker,” by NYT’s Annie Karni: KELLY JOHNSON “has been very vocal about her deeply held conservative views — many of which are at odds with mainstream public opinion in the United States … In her professional capacity, she has opposed homosexuality and same-sex marriage, both of which she views as sins. In her work as an activist, as a leader in her church and in her counseling, she has proselytized her hard-line anti-abortion views. As a wife, she has championed more legally binding marriages that make it difficult to divorce.” 7. LAST-MINUTE SCRAMBLE: Biden is due to unveil a significant pan-Asian trade deal, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, this week. But some Democratic allies and labor leaders are warning the administration starkly that the deal risks handing Trump a 2016-style political attack line against Biden, and now the U.S. is considering “major changes” right before it goes public, WaPo’s Jeff Stein and Tyler Pager report. That’s an “abrupt reversal” from months of the administration saying it would proceed apace despite Dem concerns. The consternation centers on labor protections in one plank of the agreement. 8. AMERICAN VIOLENCE: “Army Ammunition Plant Is Tied to Mass Shootings Across the U.S.,” by NYT’s Ben Dooley at the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant in Independence, Mo.: “[M]ore than one million pages of search warrants, police evidence logs, ballistic reports, forfeiture records and court proceedings compiled by The Times provide a sweeping accounting of how Lake City ammunition, once intended for war, has also cut a criminal path across towns and cities in nearly all 50 states.” 9. VALLEY TALK: The conservative heavyweights of Silicon Valley, once besotted with Trump, are souring on him and struggling to find a satisfactory alternative in the presidential race, WaPo’s Elizabeth Dwoskin, Maeve Reston and Hannah Knowles report. Intense social conservatism has turned off some of these titans, who prefer to focus on “extreme pro-business” and “ultra-capitalist” economic policy. “All DeSantis needed to be was normal,” says one person close to DAVID SACKS. “Now he’s gone nuts on this woke thing.” Right-wing Big Tech figures, like many other GOP donors, are increasingly sitting out this presidential race.
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Jacob Chansley, aka the Jan. 6 “QAnon shaman,” appears to be running for Congress as a Libertarian. Dean Phillips says there’s no limit to how much of his fortune he’ll spend on his campaign. Brett McGurk is heading to the Middle East. Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson went to UFC 295. Jake Wilkins is always repping Axios. SPOTTED: Al Franken at 2 Amys yesterday afternoon. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at an engagement party last night for Jackie Alemany and Jake Levine (pic), hosted by Linda Douglass, Pat McGinnis, Jamie Gorelick and Wendy Gray at the D.C. house of Douglass and John Phillips: Mel Levine, Ellen and Jack Alemany, Henry Waxman, Eric Lesser, Herbie Ziskend, Josh Lipsky, Alex Laskey, Scott Nathan, Will and Addar Levi, Phil Rucker, Josh Dawsey, Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan, Kate Sullivan, Chris Isham, Mika Brzezinski, Kylie Atwood, Rachel Levitan, Carol Browner, Dan Hornung, Sally Quinn, John Hudson, Beth Reinhard, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Marianna Sotomayor, Liz Goodwin and Meridith McGraw. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Muriel Chase is now director of broadcast media at the White House. She previously was at Bully Pulpit Interactive. ENGAGED — Bianca Quilantan, education reporter at POLITICO, and Justin Gaudreault, a senior associate at Percipient Strategies, got engaged yesterday at Eastern Market during its 150th-anniversary celebration. They met on Hinge and had their first date at the Wharf, but have been going to Eastern Market on Saturdays since the first week they met. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: White House chief of staff Jeff Zients … Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) … Elena Allbritton … PBS’ Stephanie Kotuby … POLITICO’s Debra Kahn … Google’s Bennett Richardson … Harlan Hill … Steve Guest … Anchor Change’s Katie Harbath … Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group … Katie Stuntz … Ryan Coyne of Starboard … Jenn Ridder … Lauren Peikoff of MSNBC … Crozer Connor … Maria Cardona of the Dewey Square Group … Roger Ream of The Fund for American Studies … Meta’s Erica Sackin … former Rep. Diane Watson (D-Calif.) (9-0) … Jessica Kahanek … Kara Gelber of Morning Consult … Alex Griswold … Marguerite Sullivan of Latham & Watkins ... Katelyn Beaudet of Rokk Solutions Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Stephen Miller’s name.
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