Crypto's big idea comes under scrutiny

From: POLITICO's Digital Future Daily - Monday Nov 14,2022 09:31 pm
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By Derek Robertson

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - NOVEMBER 10: In this photo illustration, the FTX website is seen on a computer on November 10, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency firm, agreed to acquire FTX, another large cryptocurrency exchange, in a rushed sale in order to prevent a liquidity crisis, which is known as the

The FTX.us website. | Getty Images

It’s impossible to overstate the extent to which the collapse of crypto exchange FTX has shaken not just the formalized crypto industry, but the idea of crypto itself.

When the FTX news broke, it wasn’t just a single company taking a hit. Bitcoin fell to a two-year low when news broke that a potential rescue fell through; Ether was pummeled as well (although both have since recovered somewhat).

This is not how it was all supposed to work.

One of blockchain’s key promises, and supposed advantages over both the traditional internet and traditional fiat currency, is its decentralized nature. The idea — in theory — is that by storing financial records and personal data in a public, immutable ledger, users will be protected from fallible third parties like banks (or exchanges), in a “trustless” system of perfect confidence.

As one might imagine, the second-largest crypto platform halting withdrawals and going under because its balance sheets were completely fraudulent puts a little bit of a dent in this theory.

Some of the most vocal proponents of decentralized finance, or “DeFi” — financial products that exist entirely on the blockchain — have been unfazed, and argue that FTX was insufficiently decentralized , and therefore simply replicated the problems of traditional finance.

Michael Anderson, co-founder of Framework Ventures, insisted to TechCrunch on Friday that “DeFi is the only way that we can continue to do these types of financial services operations in the crypto ecosystem,” and the FTX collapse “gives us hope and strengthens our resolve.”

It’s far from clear, however, that the blockchain protocol itself prevents all the risks of disastrous FTX-style events in the way some DeFi proponents claim.

One major arena where this is already painfully obvious: Security, as hundreds of millions of dollars in crypto were stolen from FTX in a hack in the hours following its bankruptcy filing.

“It’s strange to use the FTX debacle as an opportunity to advertise the merits of DeFi when $3 billion has already been lost to protocol hacks in 2022,” said Patrick Blumenthal, a former venture capitalist at OnDeck and host of the “Big Ideas” podcast . “Billions are lost annually from ‘trustless’ protocols being exploited.”

There’s also the fact that once any system reaches a certain scale, centralization is inevitable for rule-setting and convenience. Earlier this year a trio of researchers wrote in Wired about the extent to which maximalist proponents of decentralization tend to miss the finer points of how, and why, decentralization can be beneficial in the first place.

I interviewed one of them, associate political economist and social technologist at Microsoft Divya Siddarth, in May, just after the other major crypto collapse of 2022. “An institution is a semi-stable entity with shared norms and goals and processes, which means that you can't get away from building institutions even if you're trying not to,” she told me then. “Crypto has tons of institutions… Ethereum itself is an institution, and all these L2 chains are institutions, and the way they interact with each other is inherently institutional.”

That idea sits uneasily with the world of crypto and especially Web3, which is born of the revolutionary promise, largely in the shadow of the 2008 financial crisis, that pseudonymous Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakomoto’s cryptographic invention could “solve for” the problems of avarice and fraud in Byzantine and opaque institutions like Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns.

The nascent industry is now learning that try as it might to scrub it out, human nature has a way of stubbornly intervening in all public affairs, technological or otherwise. FTX collapsed not because of a bad contract or technical glitch, but because Bankman-Fried and his associates made the decision to base its reserves on a self-issued token that was worth nothing.

When a rival crypto mogul revealed this, the crypto community collectively and accurately decided that FTX itself was worth nothing, and Bankman-Fried’s massive fortune disappeared overnight. This is less different from what happened to Bear Stearns than the crypto world would like to believe.

 

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more incremental ai action

The European flag flies in front of Germany's parliament building the Reichstag in Berlin, Thursday, June 23, 2016.

The European Union flag. | AP Photo

The European Union is gearing up to finalize the text of its draft AI Act.

POLITICO’s Gian Volpicelli and Laura Kayali reported for Pro s this morning that according to a document they viewed, the Czech presidency of the Council of the European Union sent its final changes to the bill including “more exceptions for micro- and small companies to the bill and assurances that only health and life insurances should be covered by rules on risk assessment and pricing, among other things.”

It might sound wonky, but the lengthy process of tweaking the draft text reflects an ongoing dialogue between EU regulators, industry groups and activists. That, as one might imagine, creates a not-insignificant number of tension points: Activists and some academics already, for example, believe that industry groups have had too much say in the process, while those groups argue that it’s impossible to truly understand the technology well enough to regulate it without their input.

And when — unlike the U.S.’ voluntary framework released this year for AI best practices — these rules have actual statutory bite, expect to see those debates continue to flourish and intensify as the Act actually goes to the European Parliament.

midterm post-mortem

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 29: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), alongside House Democrats, holds up the CHIPS For America Act during a bill enrollment ceremony outside the U.S. Capitol July 29, 2022 in Washington, DC. The bill, which has now passed in both houses of Congress, is aimed at boosting U.S semiconductor manufacturing and science research to better compete with China. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

The bill enrollment ceremony for the CHIPS For America Act. | Getty Images

What does another closely divided Congress mean for innovation in America?

With narrow Democratic control of the Senate, and what for the moment is looking like equally narrow Republican control of the House, it’s likely to be more of the same from the past two years: Policy on forward-looking technologies like quantum computing and AI at least has the potential to be a rare avenue for bipartisan cooperation.

“Policy shifts are happening downstream of the shifting position toward China,” Will Rinehart, a senior research fellow for Utah State University’s Center for Growth and Opportunity,” told me last week. “The midterms are likely to make the issue of China even more salient in the upcoming Congress. Indeed, if Republicans take the House, as they are expected, these emerging tech issues might become the only place where compromise could happen.”

He sounded, however, a note of caution on something largely out of legislators’ hands: The economy. With the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high through at least next year, “a lot of companies are going to get the squeeze,” as Rinehart put it.

“As much as everyone is talking about breakthrough technology and abundance, the investment environment has just become more difficult,” he said. “I am not sure exactly where this leaves us but I cannot imagine it is good.”

the future in 5 links

Stay in touch with the whole team: Ben Schreckinger (bschreckinger@politico.com); Derek Robertson (drobertson@politico.com); Steve Heuser (sheuser@politico.com); and Benton Ives (bives@politico.com). Follow us @DigitalFuture on Twitter.

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