D.C. fiscal meltdowns aren't free

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Wednesday Sep 08,2021 12:03 pm
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By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Quick Fix

Shutdowns and debt limit fights aren’t free — Who knows if Congress and the White House figure out a way to fund the government past Sept. 30 and raise the debt ceiling, which has to happen by November at the latest. Probably so. But it’s such a confused mess at the moment that nearly anything as possible. And with the economy already flagging under the weight of the Delta variant, a fiscal meltdown is really not affordable.

And this one could be as costly as some of the more brutal battles of the last decade. Via RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “The short window between the start of the congressional calendar and the debt financing deadline carries with it the possibility of another debt ceiling crisis like those in 2011 and 2018.

“While the causes of those crises differed, the prolonged shutdowns extracted a financial and economic price on the public. … The 2011 debt ceiling crisis caused a decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 of roughly 17% between July 22 and Aug. 8 …

"The most recent shutdown, in 2018 … shaved 0.1% of gross domestic product from fourth-quarter growth that year and 0.3% from first-quarter growth in 2019, or about $7 billion per week from the economy.”

And the stare down continuesVia our Caitlin Emma: “The White House asked Congress … to include hurricane relief and money for Afghan resettlement in a package to fund the government later this month, upping the ante in the latest shutdown scare.

“Those special requests will increase the political pain for any lawmaker planning to oppose the funding patch Congress needs to pass this month to keep government agencies open beyond Sept. 30.”

GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING — Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

 

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Driving the day

FED’S KAPLAN MADE BIG TRADES — WSJ’s Michael S. Derby: “Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan made multiple million-dollar-plus stock trades in 2020, according to a financial disclosure form provided by his bank, in contrast with other regional Fed leaders who reported more modest financial holdings and smaller transactions.

“Eleven of the 12 regional Fed banks have provided disclosures of their leaders’ 2020 financial profiles since Friday, sharing information that gives insight into the holdings of officials who help set the central bank’s monetary policy. The Chicago Fed didn’t make immediately available information for their leader. Mr. Kaplan has been one of the Fed’s strongest voices warning that high levels of monetary stimulus are boosting risk levels in the financial sector.”

WALL STREET IS BACK … SORT OF — Bloomberg’s Jennifer Surane: “Masks are back at Citigroup, and Bank of America workers still have to keep their distance in conference rooms. At JPMorgan, investment bankers and traders can no longer blow off steam at the nearby Monkey Bar — the tony restaurant in midtown Manhattan that closed during the pandemic.

“Wall Street is back, just not the way industry executives had hoped. For months, top bankers had been pointing to the week after Monday’s U.S. Labor Day holiday as a marker for corporate America’s long-awaited return to normal. But the delta variant upended that plan, and many large companies have delayed their comeback entirely. Wall Street, on the other hand, is still limping ahead — largely vaccinated and mostly masked.”

CFPB SUSPENDS DEBT COLLECTION RULE DELAY — Our Katy O'Donnell: “Two Trump-era debt collection rules from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will go into effect this fall, after the agency on Tuesday withdrew a proposal to delay the compliance date until January.

“The two Fair Debt Collection Practices Act regulations finalized last year will take effect Nov. 30, as originally planned, after industry groups told the CFPB they were ready to comply and did not need an extension, the agency said.”

Markets

Europe dips on global growth worriesVia Reuters: “European stocks fell on Wednesday as worries about slowing global growth weighed on sentiment, while investors looked ahead to a European Central Bank meeting for hints on tapering plans.”

STOCKS CLOSE MOSTLY LOWER — AP’s Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: “Stocks indexes on Wall Street closed mostly lower Tuesday, though solid gains by Apple, Facebook and other tech heavyweights helped nudged the Nasdaq to another all-time high. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3 percent, losing some ground after two straight weekly gains.

“Roughly 80 percent of companies in the benchmark index fell. Industrial and health care stocks were among the S&P 500′s biggest decliners. Household goods makers also weighed on the index, offsetting gains in communication services firms, technology stocks and a mix of companies that rely on consumer spending.”

Fly Around

THE U.S. EXPECTED AN ECONOMIC TAKEOFF, BUT GOT A SLOWDOWN INSTEAD — WSJ’s Eric Morath and Theo Francis: “The U.S. economy is facing a slowdown in September, rather than the takeoff once hoped for. Earlier this summer, many economists saw the week of Labor Day as the moment when the economic recovery would kick into high gear. Their expectation was that widespread vaccination would ease labor shortages.

“Schools and offices would reopen, which would mean a comeback for local businesses reliant on office workers. Travel would rebound. Stevie Nicks would be back on tour. Instead, the rise of Covid’s Delta variant has the nation tapping the brakes.”

INFLATION IS POPPING FROM SYDNEY TO SAN FRANCISCO — NYT’s Jeanna Smialek: “Price gains are shooting higher across many advanced economies as consumer demand, shortages and other pandemic-related factors combine to fuel a burst of inflation. The spike has become a source of annoyance among consumers and worry among policymakers who are concerned that rapid price gains might last. It is one of the main factors central bankers are looking at as they decide when — and how quickly — to return monetary policy to normal.

“Most policymakers believe that today’s rapid inflation will fade. That expectation may be reinforced by the fact that many economies are experiencing a price pop in tandem, even though they used vastly different policies to cushion the blow of pandemic lockdowns.”

WHITE HOUSE: STATES TO DECIDE WHETHER TO EXTEND JOBLESS BENEFITS — Reuters’ Trevor Hunnicutt and Nandita Bose: “Local officials who want to extend enhanced unemployment benefits can do so, the White House said on Tuesday, a day after the administration and U.S. Congress allowed a program to lapse which had boosted payments during the Covid-19 pandemic. Programs providing up to $300 extra a week to millions of people who lost their jobs during the pandemic ended on Monday as the U.S. celebrated Labor Day.

“Benefits were also available for people who normally do not qualify for state unemployment money, with checks going to those without jobs for an extended period of time and to 'gig workers' who perform on-demand services, including as drivers, delivering groceries or providing childcare. Those people will be cut off entirely.”

JOBS REPORT LIKELY DERAILS CASE FOR SEPTEMBER FED TAPER — WSJ’s Nick Timiraos: “The slowdown in job growth in August is likely to spoil the case for the Federal Reserve to start reversing its easy-money policies at its next policy meeting, but steady hiring could still lead officials to begin reducing their bond purchases later this year.

“At their most recent meeting on July 27-28, Fed officials indicated they were on track to begin scaling back their easy-money policies later this year. A strong July employment report in the days that followed led some reserve bank presidents to call for the Fed to reduce, or taper, its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases at its meeting this month.”

FIVE CHALLENGES THE FED CHIEF MAY FACE IN THE NEXT FOUR YEARS — Reuters’ Ann Saphir and Jonnelle Marte: “U.S. President Joe Biden's coming decision of whether to reappoint Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after his term expires in February or hand the reins to somebody else will arrive at a critical juncture for the central bank. Progressive Democrats want the Fed to take on a more expansive role in the economy, by beefing up efforts to bolster employment, heading off climate risk and addressing inequality.

“Conservatives want it to stick to its monetary policy lane, pay more attention to tamping down inflation and reduce its footprint in financial markets and on the oversight front. Whoever the Democratic president picks, the next Fed chief will need to tackle major questions about monetary policy and the nature of money.”

DEALS SPREE PUT BANKS ON TRACK FOR BUSIEST-EVER YEAR — WSJ’s Peter Rudegeair and David Benoit: “Takeovers are taking over. Companies world-wide embarked on an unprecedented deal spree this year, emerging from the depths of the pandemic looking to bulk up and address the vulnerabilities it exposed. Simultaneously, buyout firms and blank-check companies have been deploying hundreds of billions of dollars at a feverish pace.

“In the first eight months of 2021, companies have announced mergers and acquisitions worth more than $1.8 trillion in the U.S. and more than $3.6 trillion globally, according to data provider Dealogic. Both figures are the highest at this point in a year since at least 1995, when Dealogic started keeping records. Deals are on track to surpass their record set in 2015.”

TRANSITIONS — Raffi Williams has joined Edelman as a VP on the financial comms team, focused on real estate and REITs. He previously was acting comms director at the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and is a HUD, RNC and Steve Scalise alum. …

Heidi Shierholz has been tapped as the new president of the Economic Policy Institute. She currently is senior economist and director of policy at EPI. …

Lila Nieves-Lee is now senior director for U.S. government engagement at Visa. She most recently was at Autos Drive America and is a Hill alum. … Erica Riordan is joining the American Gaming Association as director of government relations. She most recently was at Atlas Crossing, and is a Dina Titus alum.

 

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