Commerce Department releases data at 8:30 a.m. on third-quarter GDP and October durable goods orders … Commerce at 10 a.m. also releases consumer spending, personal income, inflation and new home sales … Fed releases minutes from its Nov. 2-3 policy meeting at 2 p.m. BANK REGULATORS ANNOUNCE CRYPTO WORK PLAN — Victoria Guida: “Bank regulators on Tuesday announced they will give more guidance to lenders next year on prudent ways to deal with cryptocurrencies, following a months-long review of their policies around virtual assets. “The Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the FDIC in a joint statement said crypto ‘presents potential opportunities and risks for banking organizations, their customers and the overall financial system.’” OCC REINS IN TRUMP-ERA CRYPTO GUIDANCE — Victoria again: “The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Tuesday updated Trump-era guidance to emphasize that banks need to ask permission before engaging in cryptocurrency-related activities on behalf of their clients, putting the agency in a significantly more restrictive stance toward the growing virtual currency market.” BROWN SEEKS DETAILS FROM STABLECOIN ISSUERS, EXCHANGES — Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) on Tuesday sent letters to several stablecoin issuers and exchanges seeking information on how companies are protecting consumers and investors. “I have significant concerns with the non-standardized terms applicable to redemption of particular stablecoins, how those terms differ from traditional assets, and how those terms may not be consistent across digital asset trading platforms,” Brown wrote in a letter to Circle . He also sent letters to Coinbase, Gemini, Paxos, TrustToken, Binance.US and Centre. INTERNATIONAL REGULATORS WANT SCRUTINY OF ESG DATA — Our Lorraine Woellert: “A global body of securities regulators concerned about greenwashing is calling for more scrutiny of companies that rate corporate sustainability. The International Organization of Securities Commissions, in a report issued Tuesday, said rating companies and data providers focused on environmental, social and governance (ESG) activities aren’t aligned on definitions, what to measure or how to measure.” U.S., INDIA LOOK TO BOOST AG, HEALTH, SERVICES TRADE — From our colleague Doug Palmer: “Top trade officials from the United States and India agreed Tuesday to move toward boosting trade across a variety of sectors including health care, pharmaceuticals and agriculture, but failed to resolve a dispute that led to India's ejection from an American trade benefits program.” POWELL WATCH — HOW BIDEN WENT FOR STABILITY OVER FRESH BLOOD AT THE FED — Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook, Jennifer Jacobs and Steven Dennis: “The Fed chief, whom Biden interviewed the same day as Brainard, shored up his chances with assuring responses to probing questions from the president about financial regulation and climate risks. Under fire from his political opponents over rising prices for housing, food, energy, cars and other goods, and struggling to revive his sunken approval ratings, Biden opted for the politically safe choice. Stability and an apolitical Fed wound up outweighing whatever chemistry he enjoyed with Brainard.” —Biden’s Powell pick marked a rare split with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), WSJ’s Ken Thomas and Siobhan Hughes write: “But in casting her opposition to Mr. Powell, Ms. Warren is also staking out ground on a critical nomination to come: vice chair of supervision. The Fed board role ‘must be filled by a strong regulator with a proven track record of tough and effective enforcement,’ Ms. Warren said, urging Mr. Biden to act quickly.” — In the NYT, economist Michael Strain says the Fed is erring too much on the side of maximum employment: “Instead, Mr. Powell must tip the scales back in favor of price stability. If he doesn’t, he risks inviting a sluggish economy — or even a recession — in the coming years.” —The Powell pick leaves open questions on the direction the central bank will take in regulating Wall Street , WSJ’s Andrew Ackerman and Orla McCaffrey write: “The extent to which the Fed will spend the next several years tightening regulatory policy—after easing rules under Trump-appointed officials—will depend on whom Mr. Biden ultimately picks to succeed Randal Quarles, the departing central bank governor who served as its regulatory point man until last month.” IMMIGRATION AND THE LABOR SHORTAGE — WaPo’s Catherine Rampell writes in the Opinion section: “There’s one underappreciated factor contributing to labor shortfalls that the Biden administration could alleviate almost immediately: the ‘missing’ immigrant workers. Immigration inflows slowed sharply during the Trump administration … But the labor force is also losing immigrants already here legally, whose work permits are expiring because the Biden administration hasn’t gotten its act together.” REQUIRED READING: INFLATION — Anyone else bracing for the hot inflation takes from family around the Thanksgiving table this year? Prepare yourself by reading Jason Furman’s paper on rising prices and what the Fed should do about them, or this blog post from Hamilton Project’s Wendy Edelberg on what current inflation tells us about future inflation. Sebastian Mallaby also updates (again) his 2020 inflation forecast, when he wrote that advanced economies were entering a new age: the age of magic money, in which central banks face no penalty for conjuring money out of thin air. The thesis is in trouble, he says, because its premise — dormant inflation — has been battered. |