Build Back Smaller: Biden gets real on the economy

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Thursday Jan 20,2022 01:02 pm
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By Kate Davidson

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President Joe Biden defended his economic record one year into his presidency on Wednesday, touting record job growth and rising wages, while acknowledging that reining in inflation “is going to be very hard.”

Biden’s remarks, which included both a tacit endorsement of higher interest rates and a plan for advancing his stalled economic agenda, came against a backdrop of further stock market losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has now fallen more than 10 percent from its all-time high in November amid growing expectations that rates will continue to rise. A new Politico/Morning Consult poll also found voters gave the president poor marks on jobs, inflation and his handling of the economy, an area that many voters once considered his strong suit.

Here are four takeaways from his press conference:

Thumbs up to the Fed

Before the Trump era, presidents generally avoided publicly weighing in on Federal Reserve policy decisions to avoid even the appearance of pressuring central bank officials. To the extent there has been pressure on the Fed in the past, including in recent years from former President Donald Trump, it was to cut interest rates and juice the economy.

Biden on Wednesday went the opposite direction, backing the Fed’s plans to pull back support for the economy to curb inflation.

“Given the strength of our economy and the pace of recent price increases, it’s appropriate, as the … Fed Chairman Powell has indicated, to recalibrate the support that is now necessary,” he said.

Biden emphasized that he respects the Fed’s independence and called on the Senate to confirm his five nominees to the Fed board “without delay.”

New year, same message

As for what the White House can do to help, Biden repeated the same message he’s been delivering for months.

“If price increases are what you’re worried about, the best answer is my Build Back Better plan,” he said.

Most economists don’t see that happening anytime soon — even the ones who support the president’s agenda. The measure may ease long-term inflationary pressures, as the president said, and it would likely boost the economy’s long-term productive capacity by bringing more people into the workforce. But it’s not meant to be an inflation-fighting vehicle.

Even the provisions designed to lower certain costs for families — such as child care — wouldn’t be implemented in time to do anything about inflation now (which is of course what people are worried about).

The White House is taking other steps to address inflation, Biden said, such as trying to fix supply chain snarls and improving competition in certain sectors, but it’s not clear how much or how quickly those efforts will help. “It’s going to be a haul,” he said.

Build Back Break-Up

And about BBB: The president said it will probably have to be broken up into smaller chunks to get through the evenly split Senate. “I think we can break the package up, get as much as we can now and come back and fight for the rest later,” he said.

The problem: Democrats only have one shot per fiscal year to advance a spending bill by using the arcane budget process known as reconciliation, which allows them to pass the measure with a simple majority.

As our colleagues Sarah Ferris and Jennifer Scholtes reported, Biden was likely speaking about a single, scaled-back bill, versus a smattering of separate ones, according to multiple Democrats who privately shared their interpretations of his remarks. Even that isn’t a sure thing.

Covid regrets

Finally, Biden said the White House could have moved faster to boost testing before the latest Omicron wave.

Right now, the pandemic continues to be the biggest obstacle to a fuller economic recovery, threatening to slow job gains, undercut economic growth and, perhaps most importantly from an economic perspective, add to supply chain pressures, which could further fuel inflation.

The progress the White House makes on Covid over the next couple of months is a huge public health concern. But it will also matter enormously for the direction of the economy, and in turn voter sentiment, leading up to the midterm elections.

IT’S THURSDAY — Supply chain issues have hit the Girl Scouts! Their newest cookie, a brownie-like, caramel-centered treat called an Adventureful, is in short supply in the Washington area, the Washington Post reported. (Fingers crossed that Thin Mints are unaffected.)

Have a tip, story idea or a controversial opinion about Girl Scout cookies? Send them our way at kdavidson@politico.com, aweaver@politico.com, or on Twitter @katedavidson or @aubreeeweaver.

 

JOIN NEXT FRIDAY TO HEAR FROM GOVERNORS ACROSS AMERICA : As we head into the third year of the pandemic, state governors are taking varying approaches to public health measures including vaccine and mask mandates. "The Fifty: America's Governors" is a series of live conversations featuring various governors on the unique challenges they face as they take the lead and command the national spotlight in historic ways. Learn what is working and what is not from the governors on the front lines, REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Driving the Day

HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge, Labor Secretary Marty Walsh and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo speak to U.S. Conference of Mayors … House Agriculture hearing on the state of the rural economy with Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack at 9 a.m. … House Financial Services hearing on ending homelessness at 10 a.m. …

House Energy and Commerce hearing on the crypto industry’s use of electricity at 10:30 a.m. … House Select Committee on Economic Disparity hearing on race, ethnicity and the economy at 11 a.m. … NEC Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti speaks at Center for American Progress virtual event on economic recovery at 11:30 a.m.

DEMOCRATS’ NEW CLIMATE TARGET: BITCOIN — Our Sam Sutton: “Democrats in Congress are ramping up pressure on cryptocurrency firms to show that Bitcoin is worth the wattage, amid concerns that minting digital money has become an environmental disaster.

“Scrutiny from lawmakers including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and the leadership of the House Energy and Commerce Committee is triggering lobbying on behalf of so-called crypto miners who are using an escalating amount of computing and electricity to extract valuable digital tokens from the blockchain.”

What to expect from today’s hearing? Industry leaders are set to testify at House Energy this morning. Democrats are expected to press the executives to adopt sustainable practices, while Republicans are planning to frame mining as something the U.S. should nurture as a competitive advantage, Sam reports.

Meanwhile: SEC Chair Gary Gensler said Wednesday the agency is looking at drafting regulations targeting cryptocurrency , saying he believes the agency has “a lot of authorities,” our Zachary Warmbrodt reported.

NEW YORK GOVERNOR PROPOSES NEW AFFORDABLE HOUSING MANDATE — Our Janaki Chadha: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul's executive budget plan proposes replacing a property developer tax break, called the 421-a program, with a new program that would require developers to offer more affordable apartments and condos at lower income levels.

New York is projecting balanced budgets for the next five years, the first time ever that the Empire State has published a financial plan without a deficit, Bloomberg’s Martin Braun reports. That’s thanks to “a gusher of federal pandemic aid, a booming Wall Street and a tax increase on millionaires.”

‘NO SALT, NO DEAL’ — Speaking of that millionaires’ tax, from Bloomberg’s Laura Davison: “Several House Democrats promise to sink President Joe Biden’s economic agenda if a scaled-back version now being considered eliminates an expansion of the federal deduction for state and local taxes. …

“Representative Tom Suozzi , a New York Democrat who has led efforts to expand the tax break, said Wednesday that a group of House Democrats is keeping the ‘No SALT, No Deal’ pledge it coined last year, and won’t support any of Biden’s tax plans unless the bill also expands the $10,000 cap on the federal write-off.”

SEC UNDER PRESSURE TO IMPLEMENT AGENDA WHILE DEMS CONTROL CONGRESS — WSJ’s Paul Kiernan: “Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler spent his first nine months on the job sketching out ambitious plans to tighten federal regulation of Wall Street. Now, the clock is ticking for him to implement his agenda.

“With Democrats at risk of losing their thin majorities in the House and Senate after November’s midterm elections, the coming months could be critical for Mr. Gensler, whom President Biden tapped last year. If Republicans win either chamber of Congress, they could move to slow Mr. Gensler’s progress.”

NEARLY 4 MILLION KIDS COULD FALL INTO POVERTY THIS MONTH, STUDY SAYS — CNBC’s Ylan Mui: “ Nearly 4 million children could fall into poverty this month following the end of pandemic-linked monthly child tax credit payments in December, according to a new analysis from Columbia University.

“That will translate to a child poverty rate of roughly 17%, the highest level in more than a year, according to the Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia. The center estimated that the poverty rate in December – when the final payments were delivered – was 12.1%.”

COVID 19, ENDEMIC OR NOT, WILL STILL MAKE US POORER — WSJ’s Greg Ip: “The prospect that Covid-19 is transitioning from pandemic to endemic has brought out the bulls on Wall Street. … Such optimism needs a reality check. This new normal won’t be the same as the old normal: Endemic Covid-19 will still take a toll on health, work and mobility; the only question is how big.

Jobs Report

Doug Simons has joined the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau as a senior markets and policy fellow. Prior to joining the bureau, Simons was a managing director in UBS’s financial institutions group. He also worked previously at Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup.

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 
Fly Around

CHINA’S CENTRAL BANK CUTS KEY LENDING RATES — CNBC’s Saheli Roy Choudhury: “China’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rates again on Thursday amid concerns about an economic slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The People’s Bank of China reduced the one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points from 3.8% to 3.7%. In December, the PBOC cut the one-year loan prime rate for the first time since April 2020.”

STARBUCKS ENDS PLAN TO REQUIRE WORKER VACCINATION, TESTING — NYT’s Emma Goldberg: “Starbucks will no longer require its U.S. employees to be vaccinated or submit to weekly coronavirus testing, following last week’s Supreme Court decision blocking the Biden administration’s vaccine-or-test rule for large businesses.”

WALL STREET BANKS EYE NEW NORMAL FOR TRADING REVENUE — Reuters’ Matt Scuffham: “Wall Street banks are expecting trading revenue to settle at a ‘new normal’ somewhere between pre-pandemic levels and the highs of the past two years, top executives and analysts say.

“A massive injection of cash into capital markets by the Federal Reserve led to unprecedented liquidity and trading activity through the pandemic as investors sought opportunities to cash in. But trading revenue at leading Wall Street banks fell in the fourth quarter as markets normalized and the Fed scaled back its asset purchases.”

 

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