Editor’s note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our s each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro . The November jobs report out on Friday morning is not likely to be a screaming, Wall Street-shaking number. Chances are fairly good that it comes in somewhere close to the analyst consensus of 200,000 with no change in the 3.7 percent jobless rate. That would represent a further decline in the pace of post-Covid era job creation from 261,000 in October. But the White House appears a little concerned about a potentially lower number. Or the administration at least wants to convince reporters and the public that a continued slowdown in job creation is not a big cause for worry but in fact a sign of a return to steady growth. White House officials even argue that a low-ish number could be good news in the sense that it could mean less pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep hiking rates hard and fast to beat back wage gains that feed into inflation. “The totality of recent data we’ve seen over the last several weeks shows clear progress toward bringing down inflation without giving up the gains from a historic recovery,” one senior White House economic adviser said Thursday on a conference call. Another official spoke of “cautious optimism” that the U.S. is seeing a “transition to a sustainable rate of payroll growth.” It’s not an entirely implausible story they are selling. But the realities — both political and economic — could play out in much uglier ways. A really low number would obviously be a political hit to the White House and Democrats in Congress. And it would stoke Wall Street and economist fears that the jobs engine is stalling even as inflation remains highly elevated (though edging lower). Jobless claims, job openings and the quits rate are already signaling a slowdown. So are corporations through talk of hiring freezes, potential cuts and in some cases actual layoffs. Then there is the fact that Americans are burning through Covid-era savings right now to sustain spending and racking up fresh credit card debt that will have to be paid off at higher rates, courtesy of the Fed. The concept of a soft landing for the economy — meaning no recession or a gentle one — remains at least somewhat viable. But it’s also very possible that once all the rate hikes work into the system, Covid-era savings run out and companies increasingly panic about a drop in consumer demand, the White House’s idealized “sustainable rate” of job growth turns into a quick plunge into negative numbers. FAREWELL! — Some news from Kate: MM readers, today’s edition of Morning Money will be my last as co-author, as I depart POLITICO this week for a new adventure. I can’t tell you how much I’ve enjoyed steering this ship, thanks in no small part to the wonderful community of folks who read MM every day and who care about economic and financial policy. I’m grateful for your generous feedback, smart insights and helpful tips. You can continue to find me — and more details about what’s next — on Twitter at @ katedavidson . (I’m not going far!) And a big thanks of course to my colleagues and editors on the financial services and economy team, especially my MM co-author Sam Sutton, whose fantastic reporting and analysis always made my job easier. It was a fun ride! But stay tuned for familiar MM bylines . POLITICO Financial Services Editor Zach Warmbrodt will be your new guide for economic policy in Washington. Zach has been on the financial regulation beat at POLITICO for more than a decade, covering Capitol Hill and federal agencies. He was named financial services editor last year, after dominating coverage of the Paycheck Protection Program during the pandemic. Sam Sutton will continue to report for the newsletter from New York, where he will track Wall Street’s most powerful players. Sam has been POLITICO’s lead crypto policy reporter for the past year, delivering scoops on the rise and fall of FTX and owning coverage of the industry’s broader lobbying surge and market crash. He previously reported on New Jersey state government and the private equity industry. IT’S FRIDAY — We loved working with you, Kate. You’re an amazing reporter, colleague and friend. Please send tips to ssutton@politico.com and zwarmbrodt@politico.com .
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