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Presented by Canadian Pacific: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy. | | | | | |  | | By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver | Presented by |  | | | Editor’s Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our s each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | Welcome to jobs day — Look for a fairly giant April number at 8:30 a.m. with expectations for a gain of close to 1 million, up from 916K in March, with unemployment down to 5.7 percent from 6 percent. Might as well ignore the wage numbers for now as the return of service industry jobs will drive down the figure just as the elimination of them last year drove it abnormally higher as white collar jobs remained. The figure, coupled with strong GDP growth, will complicate President Joe Biden’s efforts to push through $4 trillion more in federal spending as part of his jobs and families plans. But they will also obscure that we remain 8 million or so jobs shy of where we were before the pandemic (more if you assume growth without the pandemic.) Participation by women and people of color in the workplace remains well below where it should be. White House officials will continue to make the argument that while momentum is building, fundamental inequities in the economy persist that require very large investments in infrastructure, child care, paid leave, green jobs and much more. It will remain a challenging case, especially with moderate Democrats in the Senate. But not an impossible one. Moody’s Mark Zandi emails : “Boom! The economy and job market are off-and-running. April employment will increase by 900,000 jobs and unemployment will decline to 5.8% even with another increase in labor force participation … “Job growth will be rip-roaring in coming months, recovering the remaining 8.4 million jobs lost during the pandemic recession by this time next year. Unemployment will be closing in on 4% by then. … “All the jobs and lower unemployment notwithstanding, worries about labor shortages are misplaced. The problem is that so many previously shutdown employers are trying to hire back workers all at once as they reopen. It will take a few months to sort things out.” Via Goldman Sachs : “We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose [1.3M] in April … Mass vaccinations and the easing of business restrictions likely supported rapid job growth in virus-sensitive industries, including leisure and hospitality, retail, and education (public and private). Via PNC: “Taken together, the April ADP report and data on unemployment insurance claims are signaling a new stage in the labor market recovery. Hiring has accelerated in the spring after a period of weaker job growth in late 2020 and early 2021 as the pandemic reintensified … “With more and more Americans vaccinated, states relaxing their restrictions, and consumers gradually spending their stimulus payments, the economy has picked back up. Real GDP growth was strong in the first quarter (6.4% annualized), and will be even stronger in the second quarter (around 9%).” GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Happy weekend everyone! Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver. | | A message from Canadian Pacific: COMPETITION MATTERS. SERVICE MATTERS. EXPERIENCE MATTERS. TRUST MATTERS. CP and KCS are better together. See important information at www.futureforfreight.com. | | | | | | Jobs report at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a gain of 965K and the unemployment rate falling to 5.7 percent with hourly earnings unchanged (ignore that bit) … President Biden is scheduled to speak on the economy this morning after the jobs report (at least an hour after, as is the rule) … PATENTS PUSH-BACK — Cumberland’s David Kotok emails: “Biden pivot on patent suspension instead of negotiated licensing is disastrous for technology innovation and investment of all types, not just biotech. "This is a ‘taking’ by a non-judicial use of eminent domain. It defeats public health and gives a win to the anti vax cohort. Would you invest billions in a booster under such conditions?” STAY CAUTIOUS? —Via Morning Consult's latest labor market data: “Despite expectations of huge employment gains in April, our data shows some signs for caution that momentum is unlikely to continue through May. … “April employment data confirms that despite increases in employment, this growth has not yet led to an increase in labor force participation. Childcare responsibilities, health concerns, and commuting obstacles all pose serious barriers to unlocking the full potential of the workforce.” GOVERNMENT CONFUSION HALTS FASTER JOB GROWTH — Our Rebecca Rainey “Millions of people are flooding back to work as the coronavirus ebbs, but businesses say the federal government's failure to answer pressing questions over masks and vaccinations are complicating their reopening efforts. “Despite … Biden’s new goal of getting 70 percent of Americans vaccinated by July 4, and his call for every employer to offer paid time off for workers to recover from the shot, the government has yet to answer whether it’s legal for businesses to offer vaccine incentives to their staff.” | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel. | | | | | | | | STOCKS CLOSE HIGHER AS BANKS, TECH LEAD RALLY — AP’s Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: “Stocks are closing higher Thursday, as gains by banks and technology companies led a broad rally. "The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high. Healthcare was hurt by news late Wednesday that the White House supports waiving intellectual property rights for coronavirus vaccines to help immunize poorer countries faster. Shares of drugmaker Moderna lost 1.4 percent as investors shrugged off its first-ever quarterly profit. The S&P 500 technology sector broke a seven-day losing streak.” FED SAYS STOCK BOOM, ‘EBULLIENT’ INVESTORS WARRANT CAUTION — Reuters’ Howard Schneider, Pete Schroeder and Ann Saphir: “Booming stocks, internet-driven ‘meme’ investments and the black box of hedge fund financing pose increasing risks as the U.S. economy emerges from the coronavirus pandemic and investor appetite soars, the Federal Reserve warned on Thursday in its latest report on financial stability. COVID STILL AMONG MAJOR RISKS TO FINANCIAL STABILITY — WSJ’s Paul Kiernan: “The Covid-19 pandemic remains one of the biggest near-term risks to the stability of the financial system, the Federal Reserve said, while noting that asset prices are vulnerable to significant declines if investor sentiment shifts. "Advancing vaccination against Covid-19, massive government spending and low interest rates have helped asset valuations continue their rise in recent months from levels that were already elevated, the Fed said in a report Thursday.” | | | |   | | | | | | SEC CHAIR EMPHASIZES TRANSPARENCY IN MARKETS — NYT’s Matthew Goldstein: “Gary Gensler is putting transparency in the markets and the need to understand the impacts of new technology at the top of his priority list as the new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. “‘I think transparency is at the heart of efficient markets,’ Mr. Gensler said during his first testimony on Capitol Hill as the nation’s top securities cop. Mr. Gensler, speaking from his living room, appeared by video before the House Committee on Financial Services to discuss the S.E.C.’s response to the tumultuous trading in shares of GameStop in January.” IMF SEES STRONG ECONOMIC ARGUMENTS FOR REMOVING VACCINE BARRIERS — Bloomberg’s Eric Martin: “The International Monetary Fund sees strong economic arguments for removing barriers to vaccine production and distribution, while cautioning that a waiver on intellectual-property protections must be accompanied by other measures. “Scaling up production is the fastest way to bring an end to the crisis, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday in a European University Institute online event, responding to a question on the U.S.’s support and Germany’s opposition to the waiver. Still, a temporary suspension for rules at the World Trade Organization must be paired with both a transparent process for allocating doses and anti-counterfeiting measures, she said.” UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS FALL TO PANDEMIC LOW — AP’s Christopher Rugaber: “The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid fell last week to 498,000, the lowest point since the viral pandemic struck 14 months ago and a sign of the job market’s growing strength as businesses reopen and consumers step up spending. “Thursday’s report from the Labor Department showed that applications declined 92,000 from a revised 590,000 a week earlier. The number of weekly jobless claims — a rough measure of the pace of layoffs — has declined significantly from a peak of 900,000 in January as employers have ramped up hiring.” But with millions unemployed, why can’t companies find workers? — WSJ’s Eric Morath: “In a red-hot economy coming out of a pandemic and lockdowns, with unemployment still far higher than it was pre-Covid, the country is in a striking predicament. Businesses can’t find enough people to hire. Rising vaccination rates, easing lockdowns and enormous amounts of federal stimulus aid are boosting consumer spending on goods and services. “Yet employers in sectors like manufacturing, restaurants and construction are struggling to find workers. There are more job openings in the U.S. this spring than before the pandemic hit in March 2020, and fewer people in the labor force, according to the Labor Department and private recruiting sites.” DIMON ON RAISING TAXES: ‘JUST THROWING MONEY, IT DOESN’T WORK’ — Bloomberg’s David Scheer: “JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon urged lawmakers to spell out — very specifically — targets for building roads, funding college degrees and creating jobs if they embark on a massive spending spree to bolster the economy. ‘Just throwing money, it doesn’t work,’ Dimon said in an interview posted Thursday for the Investment Company Institute’s general membership meeting. ‘We already waste tremendous sums of money.’” | | | | DON'T MISS OUT ON OUR NEW PLAYBOOK DEEP DIVE PODCAST: Washington is full of whispers, colorful characters and little-known back stories that even D.C. insiders might not know. Playbook Deep Dive is a new, weekly podcast that pulls back the curtain on the stories behind the power. From Congress and the White House to bar stools and backrooms, POLITICO's top reporters and Playbook authors bring you the most compelling and confounding stories that explain what’s really going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | BIRTHDAYS — Happiest of birthdays to super talented journalist and WP opinion writer Helaine Olen! RIP — WSJ’s James R. Hagerty: “Raymond J. Mataloni Jr., who worked for 35 years at the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, was a hero to economists trying to make sense of data on multinational companies. “Dr. Mataloni cultivated a deep understanding of statistics on international trade and global companies. Economists and journalists appreciated his willingness to share that expertise. … He died late last month at the age of 57.” DIMON VIDEO — ICI President and CEO Eric Pan “interviewing Jamie Dimon today at this year’s General Membership Meeting. In the first clip, Eric asks Dimon about the Biden administration’s proposals like the infrastructure bill and whether he’s concerned about the administration’s plans to pay for them. In the second clip, Dimon discuss cryptocurrency and calls for a regulatory framework. | | A message from Canadian Pacific: CP and KCS are better together.
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