Countdown to shutdown

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Monday Sep 25,2023 12:01 pm
Presented by Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
Sep 25, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Sam Sutton

Presented by Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition

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QUICK FIX

Lawmakers have six days to avert a government shutdown. Will they get it done? Despite Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s hard pivots to extract votes from his fractured caucus, it’s not looking great.

We’re headed for a shutdown,” Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on House Financial Services, said on MSNBC’s “The Sunday Show.”

Wall Street has been girding for that possibility for weeks. And while the macroeconomic effects of a shutdown are unlikely to be significant — at least in isolation — that doesn’t mean it’s a nonevent. POLITICO’s policy team pulled together a compendium of what shuttered government will look like at a pivotal time for several federal agencies.

Consider the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission: Rulemaking and enforcement activity will come to a “near standstill” as both agencies rely on skeleton crews, our Declan Harty reported. That could eventually delay the finalization of new rules affecting everything from climate risk disclosures to short sellers.

And while some federal housing programs won’t see disruptions, most Department of Housing and Urban Development staff will be sent home, Katy O’Donnell reported. And a contingency plan updated last month reported that some assistance programs will operate only “for as long as the funding remains available.”

As is usually the case: The longer the impasse, the more pain becomes visible in the real economy.

So what does this mean for the political economy? Remember, consumer sentiment usually dips when Washington can’t get its act together in time to fund the government. “If the shutdown comes to bear, consumer views on the economy will likely slide, as was the case just a few months ago when the debt ceiling neared a breach,” wrote Joanne Hsu, who oversees the University of Michigan’s widely cited consumer survey.

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday found that President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is 19 points underwater. Just as importantly, 44 percent of respondents say they are worse off financially under Biden’s presidency — the highest tally recorded for any president since Ronald Reagan in 1986.

Survey respondents were also more likely to blame Biden for a government shutdown than congressional Republicans. With that, Sen. Susan Collins — a moderate Republican from Maine and the ranking member of Senate Appropriations — told Burgess Everett that “historically, Republicans have been blamed.”

Whether you look at it through a policy or a political lens, a shutdown is never beneficial,” she added.

IT’S MONDAY — Your host has been hearing from a lot of folks about FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg’s speech on non-bank financial risks last week. What are some angles I should be thinking about? Send tips, gossip and suggestions to Sam at ssutton@politico.com and Zach at zwarmbrodt@politico.com

 

A message from Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition:

With a government shutdown on the line, why are some politicians more focused on defunding your data security than protecting hard working Americans? If Congress passes the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill, it would defund data security for credit card transactions, leaving millions of Americans exposed to more fraud and hacking just to fund big retailer bailouts. Learn more and tell Congress to stop the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill.

 
Driving the Week

MONDAY  … Good Yontif to those observing Yom Kippur.

TUESDAY … Biden heads to the United Auto Workers picket line in Michigan … New home sales for August are out at 8:30 a.m. … S&P Case-Shiller home price index will be out at 9 a.m. … Consumer confidence figures for September are out at 10 a.m. … The Peterson Institute for International Economics releases its semiannual forecast for the U.S. and global economies at 1 p.m. … Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks at a FedCommunities housing event at 1:30 p.m.

WEDNESDAY … Durable goods orders data for August is out at 8:30 a.m. … Senate Banking has a markup on SAFER Banking at 9:30 a.m. … SEC Chair Gary Gensler will testify in front of House Financial Services at 10 a.m. … Senate Banking has a hearing on flood insurance at 10:30 a.m. … Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, Former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and former Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag will speak at a Brookings Institution event on tax policy at 1 p.m. …

 

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THURSDAY … Second-quarter GDP revision is out at 8:30 a.m. … Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at a Peterson Institute event at 9 a.m. … Fed Gov. Lisa Cook speaks at a Dallas Fed event at 1 p.m. … Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) speaks at a Center for American Progress event on the CFPB’s Supreme Court case at 1 p.m. … The SEC has a closed door meeting at 1 p.m. … Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a town hall at 4 p.m.

FRIDAY … The personal consumption expenditures report for August is out at 8:30 a.m. … The CFTC has a closed meeting at 9 a.m. … Several Treasury officials will speak at an Urban Institute event on climate change and household finances at 1 p.m. …

Strike watch — Biden will head to Michigan this week to picket alongside UAW members. “His decision to stand alongside the striking workers represents perhaps the most significant display of union solidarity ever by a sitting president,” our Nick Niedzwiadek reports. “‘Pretty hard-core,’ said one union adviser, who spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to speak publicly.”

— Speaking of “hardcore.” The UAW escalated its rolling strike to include three dozen Stellantis and General Motors facilities across 20 states, Nick reports.

— Former President Donald Trump went on the offensive on Truth Social in advance of Biden’s planned visit. Meanwhile, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg used an appearance on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday morning to call for a “win-win” deal. “Record profits should lead to record pay and record benefits for the workers who are creating all of that benefit,” he said, according to our Kierra Frazier.

HOW SINEMA GOT SAVED — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) told our Natalie Fertig she was brought into the negotiations over the cannabis banking bill in June by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who tasked her with getting Republicans to the table. Sinema said she convened a working group to negotiate provisions involving how banks address reputational risk.

“You want to make sure that a company that's doing solar panels, or cannabis, isn't discriminated against because someone doesn't like that industry. Sinema said, explaining her thought process on the section that has caused so much conflict over the past few months. “It’s policy neutral.”

How involved is she? Three different Senate staffers involved in the discussions on both sides of the aisle confirmed that she was part of the core negotiations in the past few months.

When Natalie asked Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.): “She's sort of the whisperer,” Cramer said. “Kyrsten has the ability to both be persuasive when necessary … but she also has the ability to reassure.”

Everyone’s saying this — Bloomberg’s Mark Niquette, Jarrell Dillard, and Michael Sasso: “Inflation has cooled down from a year ago, but that’s failing to allay the pain of Americans who are still paying up at gas pumps and grocery aisles. As a result, there’s a growing disconnect between policymakers, who point to cooling inflation indicators as a sign of progress, and people who are struggling to make ends meet.”

Fascinating — The WSJ’s Caitlin McCabe and Ben Dummett profile Pentwater Capital Management, a Florida hedge fund that’s made millions betting against FTC Chair Lina Khan’s attempts to block high-profile mergers.

 

A message from Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition:

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Regulatory Corner

Busy little Friday at 100 F Street — From Declan: “Goldman Sachs will pay $6 million to settle charges that the company sent inadequate data on millions of trades to the SEC.”

— The agency also slapped Citadel Securities with a $7 million penalty for allegedly violating short selling rules. A California private equity fund, American Infrastructure Funds, was penalized $1.6 million over charges it breached its fiduciary duty.

In any case, NBA win total over/unders are up — Also from Declan: “Wall Street's top derivatives regulator has rejected a controversial bid to open up U.S. elections to the world of political gambling.”

All FERC’d up — Our Catherine Morehouse: “FERC has determined that JPMorgan Chase Investment is a legal affiliate of a multibillion dollar private equity investment fund that owns several U.S. power plants, miles of pipelines and a large portfolio of other utilities and energy infrastructure.”

Big ESG ruling — Our Jordan Wolman: “A Trump-appointed U.S. district judge in Texas has ruled against 26 red-state attorneys general challenging a Biden administration rule clarifying that retirement plan managers can consider environmental, social and governance factors in selecting investments.”

After that case against a PE-owned contractor — NYT’s Hannah Dreier: “The Labor Department has opened inquiries into whether migrant children were working inside slaughterhouses owned by the poultry-processing giants.”

 

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Fly Around

Tai pushes back — Our Doug Palmer: “U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai on Friday laid out priorities for fixing the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement system, which the United States believes went too far in restricting its ability to use trade remedy laws against unfairly traded imports.”

ICYMI: Treasury moves ahead with China working groups — From Sam: “The Biden administration and the Chinese government will form two working groups in an effort to stabilize economic and financial relations between the world’s two largest economies after years of mounting tension.”

— Reuters: Biden to host Pacific island leaders in US charm offensive vs China

 

A message from Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition:

It’s never the right time to defund data security, but that’s exactly what the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill would do to millions of credit card transactions if it became law. With fraud and cyber crime at all time highs and the threat of a government shutdown, now is not the time for Congress to defund data security. Instead, Washington should prioritize protecting our private financial information, not make it easier for cyber criminals to hack into your wallet.

Learn more and tell Congress to say no to defunding data security by rejecting the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill.

 
 

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