How Venezuela and Saudi Arabia could factor into Biden’s Iran crackdown

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Thursday Oct 12,2023 12:02 pm
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By Sam Sutton

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QUICK FIX

Lawmakers from both parties want President Joe Biden to take a hardline stance against Iran for its support of Hamas before the deadly weekend offensive in Israel. As White House officials consider what role Tehran might have played in the terrorist event, the economic consequences of their next steps could ripple across several geopolitical hotspots.

The voices calling for an assault on Iran’s oil production and export capabilities range from Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) to Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), our Manuel Quinones and Bob King report. But any crackdown on a recent surge in Iranian production — and China’s possible emergence as the largest buyer — could cause energy prices to spike at a precarious time in world central banks’ attempts to quell inflation.

“The Biden administration has been extremely thoughtful in the consequences of some of these sanctions actions,” Daniel Tannebaum, a former sanctions compliance official with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York who’s now a partner at Oliver Wyman, told MM. “The last thing they’re going to want to do is take an action that drives up energy prices around the world.”

Enter Venezuela: The Biden administration may lift “some oil and banking sanctions on Venezuela once Caracas announces measures to hold its presidential elections in a more democratic fashion,” Bloomberg reports.

The U.S. has been at odds with Venezuela — which boasts the world’s largest volume of oil reserves — since the early 2000s. But some observers have interpreted a recent decision to resume repatriation flights of undocumented Venezuelan immigrants as a sign that relations between the U.S. and President Nicolás Maduro’s administration had thawed.

That could be a factor if the administration announces any new restriction on Iran’s oil industry. The Treasury considers the effects on markets when it comes to sanctions and enforcement. The Biden administration previously weighed easing sanctions on Venezuela, at least in part, to stabilize oil prices in the months after imposing tight restrictions on Russian institutions following its invasion of Ukraine.

“We are constantly refining our policy and our sanctions will be reflective of the current situation. As we learn more about Iran’s role in this barbaric attack, we can and will make adjustments,” a National Security Council spokesperson said in a statement.

Still: “In terms of mitigating market disruption, the short-term gains of lifting sanctions on Venezuela would be pretty limited,” said Matt Swinehart of Rock Creek Advisors, a former Treasury official who worked on sanction programs during the Biden and Trump administrations.

While Venezuelan oil production has improved after almost a decade of declines, the country’s limited infrastructure and fiscal capacity could prove a challenge to increasing supply.

“It’s likely less attractive than encouraging OPEC and others to increase production, which also has downsides but could deliver supply in the near-term,” Swinehart said.

That would be a big test of the administration’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. 

Saudi Arabia — as well as Russia — slashed production earlier this year to account for weaker demand from China.

And the “Saudis or other producers may want to see evidence that the U.S. and Europe are taking actions that will meaningfully reduce Iranian supply before proceeding with plans to ramp up,” Swinehart said.

IT’S THURSDAY — Send tips, gossip and suggestions to Sam at ssutton@politico.com and Zach at zwarmbrodt@politico.com.

 

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Driving the day

The Consumer Price Index for September is out at 8:30 a.m. … Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will participate in the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable at noon and a working dinner with G20 finance ministers and central bank governors at 1:30 p.m.

Speaker watch? — Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) on Wednesday secured a narrow majority of the House Republican caucus’s support to be the next Speaker. But “within hours, some House Republicans openly doubted that Scalise could ever get elected on the floor,” our Sarah Ferris and Olivia Beavers report. “Scalise is still laboring to complete what would be a compelling rise to the House’s top spot. At least a dozen Republicans have publicly lined up against Scalise, who can only afford to lose four of them on the floor.”

Market participants will be watching the outcome closely, particularly amid ongoing concerns that U.S. fiscal challenges could worsen if political dysfunction becomes more entrenched. That’s true even of investors who are otherwise bullish on their U.S. outlook.

"Long term, you can't let well-recognized problems fester forever,” Mercer’s Global Chief Investment Strategist Rich Nuzum told MM, citing eventual shortfalls that are projected for both Medicare and Social Security. “The US isn't the worst off. I think Japan's worse off — China's in danger of becoming worse off because of the demographics — but we could go that way.”

More on Israel, Hamas and Iran — Adam Behsudi reports that Yellen kept open the possibility of refreezing $6 billion worth of Iranian oil revenue currently being held in Qatar. "I wouldn’t take anything off the table in terms of possible future action,” she said.

— Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the top Republican on Senate Banking, is working on legislation to do just that, per Burgess Everett.

— Eleanor Mueller scooped that Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) also wants the administration to freeze the $6 billion. Separately, House Financial Services is eyeing an Oct. 19 hearing on Iran sanctions, according to a GOP staffer granted anonymity to discuss the tentative schedule.

Watch this space — Our Lara Seligman: “The Pentagon is concerned about the potential for new attacks on American troops stationed in the Middle East from Iran and its proxy forces as the conflict between Israel and Hamas militants escalates in an already tumultuous region, according to Defense Department officials.”

— The FT: “Border clashes prompt fears of Hizbollah joining Israel-Hamas war

Wall Street

More shrugs — Bloomberg’s Rita Nazareth: “Stocks extended their rebound from oversold levels as traders shrugged off a hotter-than-estimated inflation reading to focus on less hawkish comments from Federal Reserve speakers. Oil fell after an early-week surge.”

SBF Trial — Former Alameda Research Chief Caroline Ellison testified that FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried “raised the possibility of asking Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to buy shares in FTX,” according to Bloomberg. She said that Bankman-Fried met the Saudi leader at a dinner arranged by financier and former Trump administration official Anthony Scaramucci.

 

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here.

 
 
Regulatory Corner

Automatic, systematic — Our Declan Harty: “SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw on Wednesday urged caution over the $1.4 trillion leveraged loan market, saying it's operating under lax safeguards that may be allowing systemic issues to fester.”

That went over well — The bank and credit union lobby has come out in force against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s latest attempt to go after so-called “junk fees.” The new guidance – which targets charges levied for customers for checking their account balances or getting updates on their loans — is “another instance of the bureau overstepping its authority and masking a major power grab as simple ‘guidance,’” National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions Senior Vice President of Government Affairs Greg Mesack said in a statement.

Ahead of bank earnings, no less — Victoria Guida reports that the FDIC has launched a new ad campaign to explain the role of deposit insurance after a Gallup poll earlier this year showed nearly half of Americans are worried about the safety of the money in their bank account. The campaign — which will include web banners, search engine marketing and sponsored social media posts — features “a piggy bank, which is commonly associated with money and personal savings, placed in potentially risky situations.”

Jobs Report

France’s former U.S. ambassador Philippe Etienne has joined the international economic policy advisory firm Rock Creek Global Advisors as an independent Senior Policy Advisor based in Paris. The former advisor to French President Emmanuel Macron will guide clients on European affairs and geopolitics.

Mike Lucier is now senior director of government and regulatory affairs at Experian. He was previously senior vice president for financial services at Height Capital Markets and is a Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) and Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) alum. — Caitlin Oprysko

 

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