A CBDC call to action

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Tuesday Nov 14,2023 01:02 pm
Presented by Goldman Sachs: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
Nov 14, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Zachary Warmbrodt and Adam Behsudi

Presented by Goldman Sachs

Editor’s note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our s each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

QUICK FIX

FOMO is a powerful force, and it has world leaders rushing to roll out central bank digital currencies — a new form of electronic cash. One nonprofit watchdog is starting to warn it could have disastrous consequences.

The Human Rights Foundation — a group that says it exists to fight tyranny under authoritarian regimes — is launching a tracker that will allow the public to keep tabs on which governments are experimenting with CBDC’s. Its big takeaways so far: More than 62 percent of governments are going down the CBDC road, and autocracies are leading the charge, including China, Russia and Thailand.

The group’s concern is that the new digital currencies will become tools for governments to exert further control over their populations.

“It gives governments and central banks the opportunity to have direct access to citizens,” Nick Anthony, an HRF fellow and Cato Institute policy analyst, told MM. “Whereas right now, in many cases, we have this sort of air gap of protection, this last bastion of that private sector layer.”

While China might be plowing ahead, the U.S. has been a relative laggard. Efforts like the Human Rights Foundation’s will only ratchet up simmering concerns about privacy and civil liberties that have animated American policymakers, in particular those on the right. The U.S. banking industry and private sector cryptocurrency interests are also fighting back.

HRF argues that human rights institutions should quickly get up to speed. Other international groups like the IMF are taking a cautiously supportive stance toward CBDC while remaining wary of the potential impact on global financial stability. Proponents argue that government-backed digital currencies could help expand financial inclusion and strengthen payments systems.

“People want their money to be digital and programmable. They want to be able to transfer it across borders quickly, cheaply and safely,” Bank for International Settlements general manager Agustin Carstens said in a September speech outlining the need for a CBDC legal framework.

But critics warn that “programmable” money poses a dangerous tradeoff.

“All too often people usually find out about these types of developments years after the fact,” Anthony said. “We’re hoping the public can get more involved in the conversation before we are looking at it in the rear-view mirror.”

Happy Tuesday — MM wants your reaction to today’s Senate Banking hearing with the regulators. Send it this way: zwarmbrodt@politico.com.

 

A message from Goldman Sachs:

Only 26% of Black small business owners that applied for business loans or lines of credit in the past year received all of the funding they requested. Tell the Fed: Stop the Squeeze on Small Businesses.

 
Driving the day

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a virtual keynote to the Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty and Volatility at 5:30 a.m. … Bank regulators testify at Senate Banking at 10 a.m. … House Financial Services marks up sanctions bills at 10 a.m.

First in MM: Credit card bill wins union backing — The International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the Service Employees International Union are endorsing legislation from Sens. Dick Durbin and Roger Marshall aimed at cracking down on credit card fees. Teamsters general president Sean O’Brien said in a statement that it would “ease inflationary pressures on working people and establish greater accountability in the financial market.”

Big day for big banks (and their regulators) — Top officials from the Fed, FDIC and OCC will kick off two days of Hill testimony this morning. At the top of the agenda will be their plans to hike capital requirements for the largest banks. As MM has previewed the last few days, lawmakers from both sides of the aisle are expected to warn regulators that they’re going too far.

So far, bank executives are encouraged by the political response that their lobbying efforts have triggered. They’ll be watching the Senate and House hearings to see how it manifests when lawmakers confront regulators face to face.

This week, the Financial Services Forum, which represents eight of the largest U.S. banks, will launch national TV ads warning about the potential costs of the rules. The campaign is dubbed "Another Bill Americans Can't Afford.”

A big question heading into the hearings is how many Democrats will speak out in support of the regulators' efforts. Lawmakers are facing a lobbying barrage warning about the impacts on business and consumer lending, mortgages and broader economic growth.

Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown will kick off his hearing this morning by arguing that heightened regulation is justified after the three major bank failures the U.S. suffered earlier this year.

“That means improving bank supervision and holding bank executives accountable for risky behavior that drives their banks into the ground,” he’ll say, according to prepared remarks. “And it means strengthening rules, so that banks are serving their communities and have the capital necessary to continue serving them … during stress events.”

What regulators will say — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, a lead architect of the capital proposal, will tell Senate Banking that “we are interested in public input.”

“We have already heard concerns that the proposed risk-based capital treatment for mortgage lending, tax credit investments, trading activities and operational risk might overestimate the risk of these activities,” he said.

The rest of the officials’ prepared testimony is available here.

Another hearing target — Lawmakers may also ask about Monday’s WSJ bombshell that detailed the FDIC’s “toxic work environment” — one that has reportedly caused employees to flee the agency for years.

More Treasury market ransomware fallout — Bloomberg reports that the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is racing to reassure market participants following a ransomware attack that left it unable to process Treasury trades. The firm has yet to restore normal operations.

 

A message from Goldman Sachs:

Advertisement Image

 
Economy

Bidenomics on trial — Victoria Guida and Katy O’Donnell report that forecasters who have successfully predicted the outcome of past presidential races based on the economy say the 2024 election will be a tight race.

Yale economist Ray Fair is predicting a slight edge for Biden, seeing him getting 51 percent of the vote, in line with other economists like Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi, who also forecasts a very close contest.

 

JOIN US ON 11/15 FOR A TALK ON OUR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: As the sustainability movement heats up, so have calls for a national standard for clean fuel. Join POLITICO on Nov. 15 in Washington D.C. as we convene leading officials from the administration, key congressional committees, states and other stakeholders to explore the role of EVs, biofuels, hydrogen and other options in the clean fuel sector and how evolving consumer behaviors are influencing sustainable energy practices. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
On the Hill

Tim Scott’s back — Jasper Goodman reports that Sherrod Brown was watching Fox News live on Sunday (a rarity, he says) when his GOP counterpart on the Banking Committee made the surprise announcement that he was suspending his presidential campaign.

The end of Scott’s longshot bid means he will likely be more present in his Senate Banking role in the coming months.

Brown says that’s welcome news.

“I hope that we can get him to weigh in seriously on some issues,” Brown said. “Having him there will be helpful.”

Sen. Mike Rounds, a South Dakota Republican and Senate Banking member who had endorsed Scott’s presidential bid, echoed Brown: “It’ll be good to have Tim back with us again.”

Housing

GOP spending plan would extend flood program — Jasper reports that the stopgap government funding plan unveiled by House Republicans would extend the National Flood Insurance Program through Feb. 2. Housing groups are urging Congress to seal the deal.

If Congress fails to reauthorize the program by the end of the week, its lapse would threaten 1,300 property sales per day, according to the National Association of Realtors.

In a letter to lawmakers on Monday, a coalition of housing trade groups led by NAR urged lawmakers to extend the flood program and avoid a shutdown.

 

GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW.

 
 
Regulatory Corner

Checking in with Randy Quarles — The former Fed vice chair for supervision talked with Rob Blackwell for IntraFi’s “Banking with Interest” podcast. They cover the latest fight over capital, debit rules and the power dynamics at the Fed.

“The practice of developing regulation in a so-called independent agency, so long as we're going to have them, has to be much more collegial across the spectrum than currently seems to be happening,” he said.

 

A message from Goldman Sachs:

Minority-owned businesses already face significant challenges accessing capital. 81% of Hispanic small business owners and 85% of Black small business owners are concerned about their ability to access capital. The Federal Reserve’s Basel III Endgame proposal would make it even harder for minority-owned businesses to access loans and credit.

Minority-owned small businesses are integral to our economy. Tell the Fed: Stop the Squeeze on Small Businesses.

Source: Survey of 1,240 Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses participants conducted by Babson College and David Binder Research from October 9-12, 2023. The survey included small business owners from 48 U.S. states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico.

 
 

Follow us on Twitter

Mark McQuillan @mcqdc

Zachary Warmbrodt @Zachary

Victoria Guida @vtg2

Declan Harty @ @declanharty

Eleanor Mueller @eleanor_mueller

Katy O'Donnell @katyodonnell_

Sam Sutton @samjsutton

 

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to .

More emails from POLITICO's Morning Money

Nov 10,2023 01:01 pm - Friday

Biden bank cops vs. Democrats

Nov 09,2023 01:02 pm - Thursday

Britain’s pitch to Wall Street

Nov 08,2023 01:02 pm - Wednesday

Apple and Cash App: The new big banks

Nov 07,2023 01:02 pm - Tuesday

Disclosure omakase

Nov 03,2023 12:02 pm - Friday

The Fed’s test