Moscow and the midterms

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Wednesday Jul 28,2021 07:57 pm
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By Nahal Toosi and Quint Forgey

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Lockheed Martin

Welcome to National Security Daily , POLITICO’s newsletter on the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. I’m Nahal Toosi, POLITICO’s foreign affairs correspondent, filling in for Alex Ward this week as your guide to what’s happening inside the Pentagon, the NSC and D.C.’s foreign policy machine. National Security Daily arrives in your inbox Monday through Friday by 4 p.m.; if you’re getting this from a friend, do yourself a favor and subscribe here.

Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and @alexbward on Twitter. Make sure to follow @nahaltoosi and @QuintForgey, too!

Well, that didn’t take long.

Russia already is interfering in next year’s midterm elections, according to none other than President JOE BIDEN. And the commander in chief is not thrilled about it.

Biden made that eyebrow-raising assessment during a gathering yesterday with intelligence community staffers at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. He noted that his Presidential Daily Brief had described how the Kremlin is still pursuing information warfare targeting American voters. The campaign has apparently continued after Biden’s much-hyped summit with Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN last month, and despite U.S. officials declaring the 2020 election that Biden won to be the most secure in American history.

“In today’s PDB you all prepared for me, look what Russia is doing already about the 2022 elections and misinformation,” Biden told the intel officials. “It’s a pure violation of our sovereignty.”

Officials with the National Security Council did not respond to NatSec Daily’s attempts today to learn more about what exactly the president meant. But according to former officials and analysts, Biden’s revelation isn’t entirely a surprise. The Kremlin has for years operated disinformation campaigns aimed at confusing American voters, and while Moscow ramps them up now and again, the attempted meddling never really stops.

“This is a long-term, strategic effort on their part,” said CHRIS PAINTER , a former senior U.S. cyber official.

When Biden met Putin in June, he warned the Russian leader that the U.S. would respond if the Kremlin used cyber or other means to attack America’s critical infrastructure. Technically, election infrastructure is designated as “critical.” But, as Painter pointed out, disinformation campaigns aren’t direct attacks — or hacks — on infrastructure; they’re more like hacks of people’s minds.

Biden alluded to this, vaguely: “We also need to take on the rampant disinformation that is making it harder and harder for people to … assess the facts, be able to make decisions.” He also had darker concerns: “If we end up in a war, a real shooting war with a major power, it’s going to be as a consequence of a cyber breach of great consequence.”

Today, however, the American president opted for a diplomatic signal to Moscow rather than a show of military force. In a tweet, Biden announced that he had met at the White House with Belarus opposition leader SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA — a staunch critic of Putin ally ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO, the country’s leader.

“The United States stands with the people of Belarus in their quest for democracy and universal human rights,” Biden wrote.

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The Inbox

BEIJING’S NEW MAN IN WASHINGTON: China just announced that its new ambassador to the United States, QIN GANG , has arrived in Washington and taken up his post. According to a Chinese statement, Qin is the 11th Chinese ambassador to the United States. Previously, he was vice foreign minister of China.

AFGHAN VISAS COMPLICATING CAPITOL SECURITY FUNDING: Per our own KATHERINE TULLY-MCMANUS , seven Republican senators have placed a hold on the supplemental Capitol security funding bill over money included for Afghan Special Immigrant Visas.

NOT DONE WITH SYRIA: The Biden administration is imposing new human rights-related sanctions on BASHAR ASSAD ’s regime in Syria. The sanctions target eight Syrian prisons run by his intelligence apparatus as well as five senior security officials. The Syrian armed group Ahrar al-Sharqiya also faces sanctions, according to details from the Treasury Department.

DIPLOMASKS: The State Department has notified staffers that it’s immediately requiring that people wear masks inside department offices, per the latest CDC guidance. “All Federal employees, onsite contractors, and visitors, regardless of vaccination status, are required to wear a mask inside all Department facilities, domestic and overseas,” says the notice, obtained by NatSec Daily.

WELCOME TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY. Thanks for tuning in to POLITICO’s newsletter on the national security politics roiling Washington. NatSec Daily is for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage is made. Please share this subscription link with a colleague or friend. Follow the whole team here: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, and @QuintForgey.

THE BEST PART OF WAKING UP … IS MORNING D IN YOUR INBOX: Morning Defense is now turbo-charged and better than ever, coming at Pro s bright and early every a.m. Get more intel and sign up here. Don’t let your competition be the first to act on industry scoops, breaking Pentagon news, the latest aerospace developments, and new reporters covering defense acquisitions and influence.

Blowing Up

CHINA STRENGTHENING TALIBAN TIES: Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI met today with a delegation of high-level Taliban officials in Tianjin, per the Associated Press — a sign of warming relations between Beijing and the Islamic fundamentalist group amid the U.S. pullout from Afghanistan.

Wang said China respects Afghan sovereign independence and territorial integrity and always adheres to non-interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs. He also argued that the hasty withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO forces “reveals the failure of America’s policies and offers the Afghan people an important opportunity to stabilize and develop their own country.”

ISRAELI-FRANCO FEUD: Israel’s defense minister, BENNY GANTZ, is due to meet with his French counterpart today. Officials in Paris have made it clear they want more information on exactly what the Israeli government knew about surveillance activities linked to NSO, an Israeli firm, which may have targeted French President EMMANUEL MACRON’s phone.

Keystrokes

POTUS MEMO MARKS NEW CYBER PUSH: A national security memo signed by Biden today creates targets for critical infrastructure companies to strengthen their cybersecurity defenses, reports our own SAM SABIN . The document directs the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Institute of Standards and Technology to draft “cybersecurity performance goals” for critical infrastructure operators. It also expands a program that pushed the electric sector to upgrade its security tools.

SOMETHING TO CHEW OVER: The Economist has released its latest Big Mac Index, the venerable, high-calorie comparison of the strength of various currencies. Economic instability is often linked to national security problems, so it’s worth examining the findings. According to the study, Lebanon is where you can find the world’s cheapest Big Mac. That’s partly because instability in the country following the Beirut port explosion has affected its currency.

You’ll find the most expensive Big Mac in Venezuela, which has suffered from massive inflation of the Bolivar. In second place is Switzerland, which is just … well, expensive.

The Complex

DECENT Q2 FOR GENERAL DYNAMICS: In more second-quarter sales news — following earnings calls this week by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologiesour own LEE HUDSON reports that General Dynamics’ net earnings jumped 17.9 percent, from $625 million to $737 million. The company benefited from sales in its combat systems and technologies divisions, officials said.

BOON FOR BOEING: Lee also reports that new sales of the 737 MAX helped boost Boeing’s second-quarter earnings by 44 percent — the first good news for the company after six quarters of losses. Sales increased from $11.8 billion this time last year to $16.9 billion after Southwest Airlines and United Airlines placed orders for the MAX, the company said.

On the Hill

SENATORS SHORE UP USAID PROGRAM: Sens. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) and MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) are rolling out a new bill to bolster the New Partnerships Initiative at the U.S. Agency for International Development — the program that was launched in 2019 to help USAID collaborate with local non-profits on humanitarian work.

The measure from the two Senate Foreign Relations Committee members would authorize $250 million annually for the program through fiscal year 2026. It would also require the USAID administrator — currently SAMANTHA POWER — to submit an annual report to lawmakers on the NPI’s performance and meet certain requirements for program management and recruitment of NGOs.

 

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Broadsides

CRUZ CLASHES WITH J STREET: The left-leaning, pro-Israel organization is bashing Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) for blocking a unanimous consent request on passage of the Israel Relations Normalization Act. Cruz declared his opposition to the measure last month after its language was changed in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to include support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“Senator Cruz’s obstructionist stunt makes one thing clear: he and his right-wing allies are fundamentally opposed to a two-state peace agreement,” DEBRA SHUSHAN, J Street’s director of government affairs, said in a statement.

“Cruz has evidently watched years of the endless Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory, where Palestinians lack basic rights and dignity while Israelis face the constant threat of violence and instability, and decided that the unjust and destructive status quo suits him just fine.”

Asked whether the Palestinians should have a state at all, a Cruz spokesperson told NatSec Daily the senator “believes that America should support our allies and that it’s not the place of American diplomats to dictate to our allies what to do with their sovereign territory.”

“Until recently, there was bipartisan agreement in Congress mandating support for our Israeli allies in negotiations, but this bill is a radical departure that would change U.S. policy from supporting Israel to pressuring Israel,” the spokesperson said. “Sen. Cruz opposes that change.”

Transitions

NEW AMBASSADOR NOMINATIONS: Biden has formally tapped MARK GITENSTEIN as U.S. representative to the European Union; LAURA S. H. HOLGATE as U.S. representative to the Vienna Office of the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency; PATRICIA MAHONEY as U.S. ambassador to the Central African Republic; JULISSA REYNOSO PANTALEÓN as U.S. ambassador to Spain and Andorra; and PETER HENDRICK VROOMAN as U.S. ambassador to Mozambique.

FIRST DAY ON THE JOB: Newly Senate-confirmed Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL arrived at the Pentagon this morning and was promptly sworn in at 9 a.m., per his office’s official Twitter account. “I will do everything I can to strengthen and support the great teams of American Airmen and Guardians who have dedicated themselves to protecting our country,” he said in a statement.

What to Read

Foreign Policy: Ukraine Won’t Stop Fighting the Nord Stream Deal

The New Yorker:Mandela’s Dream for South Africa Is in Ruins

ProPublica:Revisiting ‘The Year of the Spy

Tomorrow Today

Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN continues his tour of Southeast Asia after visiting Singapore and Vietnam, with a further stop in the Philippines.

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN returns to Washington following his trip this week to India and Kuwait.

Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN concludes her trip to Switzerland, where she led the American delegation’s participation in a U.S.-Russia bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue. Sherman was joined by BONNIE JENKINS , undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security.

— JOEY HOOD, acting assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, concludes his trip to Algeria, Morocco and Kuwait.

— The American Enterprise Institute, 10 a.m.:America’s ever-shrinking fighting force

— House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces Markup: H.R. 4350 — National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.:Lebanon: Assessing Political Paralysis, Economic Crisis and Challenges for U.S. Policy

— House Armed Services Committee, 12 p.m.:Subcommittee on Readiness Markup: H.R. 4350 — National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022

— House Armed Services Committee, 2 p.m.: Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations Markup: Markup of H.R. 4350 — National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022

— Foreign Policy for America, 3:30 p.m.: Race and Foreign Policy — The U.S.-China Relationship

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