North Korea has entered the chat

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Friday Sep 03,2021 07:58 pm
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By Jonathan Custodio and Alexander Ward

With help from Nahal Toosi, Daniel Lippman and Quint Forgey

Welcome to National Security Daily, your guide to the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night.

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While President JOE BIDEN is trying to pivot back to domestic initiatives after the conclusion of the war in Afghanistan, the world has a funny way of messing with plans. This week brings news that North Korea has quietly boosted its nuclear program.

A report last week from the International Atomic Energy Agency revealed renewed activity at the nuclear reactor site Yongbyon, where there had been no signs of reactor operations since December 2018.

Why is Pyongyang doing this? The obvious answer is that North Korea is continuing to build out its arsenal, which is currently estimated as high as 60 nuclear warheads. But North Korea experts also tell NatSec Daily that it might be a signal KIM JONG UN’s regime wants to chat.

The activity at Yongbyon “could very well indicate that North Korea is preparing itself to accept the Biden administration’s offer to resume nuclear talks, because the North Koreans want to go into those talks with some additional leverage,” said GARY SAMORE, director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University and a former top NSC official.

That’d be a change, as Pyongyang has all but ignored Washington’s advances since February. But Biden’s team remains ready to talk, especially in light of the IAEA’s findings.

“We are aware of this report and we are closely coordinating with our allies and partners on developments regarding the DPRK,” a NSC spokesperson told NatSec Daily, using the acronym for the country’s official name. “This report underscores the urgent need for dialogue and diplomacy so we can achieve the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. We continue to seek dialogue with the DPRK so we can address this reported activity and the full range of issues related to denuclearization.”

Negotiations won’t be easy. Former President DONALD TRUMP found that out the hard way after three face-to-face meetings with Kim. In Hanoi in 2019 during their second encounter, the North Korean leader put Yongbyon’s closure on the table, but the American president wanted the “big deal” — and both sides walked away empty handed. Now the problem is Biden’s to solve.

“In the short term, there are meaningful gains to be had by sort of slowing down the growth of the program. And Yongbyon gives you an opportunity to do that,” said VIPIN NARANG, a nuclear expert at MIT, noting the nuclear reactor site is North Korea’s only known plutonium and tritium production path. “I think the question for the Biden administration or any administration going forward … is whether we can get Yongbyon, the whole complex, back on the table.”

But the question still remains: Is North Korea serious about ending its nuclear program? The answer from most experts: Not likely. North Korea’s buildup, then, is yet another middle finger to the U.S. and its regional partners who aim to defuse Pyongyang’s bombs.

 

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The Inbox

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — FORMER INTEL LEADERS PUSH FOR STATE NOMINEE: Twenty high-profile figures in the intelligence world are urging the Senate to quickly confirm a key State Department nominee, according to an Aug. 30 letter obtained by our own NAHAL TOOSI.

In the message to Senate leaders CHUCK SCHUMER and MITCH MCCONNELL, the intel veterans praise BRETT HOLMGREN, the nominee for assistant secretary of State for intelligence and research. Holmgren believes in giving policymakers “apolitical, unvarnished intelligence assessments,” and has relevant private and public sector experience, notes the letter, whose signatories include JAMES CLAPPER, JOHN BRENNAN, and LEON PANETTA.

Biden nominated Holmgren in April, and while he’s made it over committee hurdles he has yet to get a full Senate vote. Like dozens of other Biden picks, Holmgren appears to be facing the wrath of Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas). The lawmaker has been blocking nearly all State Department nominees because he’s upset that Biden hasn’t imposed more sanctions related to the German-Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. However, Schumer could blow through the hold and force a vote on Holmgren’s nomination if he chose to spend the time doing so.

Relatedly...

BIDEN OPEN TO SANCTIONING NS2: Biden told Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY in their one-on-one chat this week that he’s open to sanctioning the Nord Stream 2 pipeline should Russia interfere with Kyiv’s energy security.

That’s what YURIY VITRENKO, the newly minted CEO of the state-owned energy company Naftogaz, relayed to NatSec Daily yesterday evening. Vitrenko is traveling with Zelenskyy and his team during their U.S. swing, and called us up while in California to discuss the high-level chat between the two leaders.

It’s a “slight change,” Vitrenko said, from the previous Washington stance not to sanction the nearly complete Russia-to-Germany pipeline in order to keep Berlin happy. Kyiv hated that July decision and has since pushed Biden to change course. “That's at least something that our president was able to get from Biden,” Vitrenko told us.

What would trigger the renewed sanctions? “If something happens to Ukrainian [energy] transit … like the interruption of gas supplies, stuff like that,” the CEO said without going into further detail.

Asked about Vitrenko’s comments, Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), a prominent Senate Foreign Relations Committee member, told NatSec Daily "every effort must be made to prevent the Kremlin from abusing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to target Ukraine's economic security ... We shouldn’t wait for Putin to threaten Ukraine’s energy security when his track record shows that he does not play by the rules."

A NSC spokesperson provided no further details from the tête-à-tête, but did say "we are prepared, including with appropriate tools and mechanisms and in partnership with the E.U., to respond together to Russian aggression and harmful activities, including Russian efforts to use energy as a weapon."

TEAMS FOR EACH AMERICAN IN AFGHANISTAN: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN announced today that there will be “case management teams” assigned to each U.S. citizen in Afghanistan who wants to evacuate. The administration has said around 100-200 Americans remain in the country.

Blinken also said he would go on travel next week, including stops in Doha, Qatar and Ramstein Air Base in Germany to see the refugee processing centers for himself. While in Germany, he will meet with his counterpart, Foreign Minister HEIKO MAAS.

Finally, he added there "needs to be, including across the State Department, a look back at the entire 20 years to understand the entire course of this war and engagement with Afghanistan, and to ask the right questions and to learn the right lessons from that." He said the department is committed to doing that and will announce in the coming weeks what that review will look like.

AFGHANISTAN’S NEW LEADER: Taliban co-founder ABDUL GHANI BARADAR will be named the leader of Afghanistan’s new militant-run government, Reuters reported. Other top officials will include MOHAMMAD YAQOOB, the son of the late Taliban co-founder MULLAH OMAR, as well as SHER MOHAMMAD ABBAS STANIKZAI.

"All the top leaders have arrived in Kabul, where preparations are in final stages to announce the new government," a Taliban official told Reuters.

The new administration will only consist of Taliban members scattered throughout 25 ministries and a shura of 12 Muslim scholars.

In his news briefing today, Blinken said he doesn't know what the new Afghan government will look like. But he did say "there is an expectation that any government that emerges now will have some real inclusivity in that it will have non-Talibs in it who are representative of different communities and different interests in Afghanistan."

U.S. AND PAKISTAN REMAIN FRENEMIES: Our own NAHAL TOOSI obtained cables and other documents showing the relationship status between Washington and Islamabad remains complicated.

“The Biden administration is quietly pressing Pakistan to cooperate on fighting terrorist groups such as ISIS-K and Al Qaeda in the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan,” Toosi reported. “In response, Pakistan — long accused by U.S. officials of aiding the Afghan Taliban — has hinted that Islamabad deserves more public recognition of its role in helping people now fleeing Afghanistan, even as it has downplayed fears of what Taliban rule of the country could mean.”

There’s one tidbit that dropped NatSec Daily’s collective jaw to the floor: Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S., ASAD MAJEED KHAN, told an American official that his government believes “ground observations” make clear the Afghan Taliban “were not seeking retribution, and in fact were going home to home to assure Afghans that there will not be reprisals.”

Nothing says “everything’s fine” like unannounced armed house calls, apparently.

SUGA’S BITTER END: Japanese Prime Minister SUGA YOSHIHIDE will resign this month, bringing the leader’s rags-to-riches story to an abrupt and unceremonious end.

A failure to control the Covid-19 outbreak in his nation, his plunging popularity and his acerbic reaction to an intraparty challenger made him a liability at the top of the ticket. He’s stepping aside as a result.

NatSec Daily asked SHEILA SMITH, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, about who is poised to next lead Japan. She said the succession race is “wide open,” but “the stronger next-generation candidate, KONO TARO, has already made his move. Kono is widely seen as the party’s best hope for the Lower House election.”

However, there are “already signs that more will join the race,” Smith said, so this is bound to be a fluid and exciting time in Japanese politics.

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JonnyCustodio.

Flashpoints

TALIBAN VS. RESISTANCE CONTINUES: The Taliban continues its offensive against the pocket of armed resistance in the Panjshir Valley, The Wall Street Journal’s ALAN CULLISON reported.

“The Taliban said they pushed into the Shotul district of the southern end of the valley, overrunning checkpoints on the road and seizing a district center, according to local news reports. AHMADULLAH WASIQ, a high-level Taliban leader, tweeted Friday that another district was ‘under attack from four directions and many areas of it have been captured.’”

This fight is bound to continue until one side or the other caves instead of both sides reaching a peaceful agreement. An Afghan commando NatSec Daily spoke with before, SARFARAZ, tweeted as much.

“When you want to come to Panjshir by force, bring your [coffin emoji] with you as well. In last night fighting, 450 Taliban killed, 230 surrendered and 170 Taliban from Badakhshan joined the RESISTANCE,” he wrote.

In the meantime, a small number of conservatives believe the U.S. should provide financial and military assistance to the resistance fighters.

Keystrokes

CHINESE TECH SPREADS THE WEALTH: Chinese tech giants are pouring billions into President XI JINPING’s vision of “common prosperity,” in which the mega-wealthy help the not-as-fortunate through innovation and development programs.

Leading the way is Alibaba, the e-commerce giant, which will invest $15.5 billion over the next few years.

“Alibaba is a beneficiary of the strong social and economic progress in China over the past 22 years. We firmly believe that if society is doing well and the economy is doing well, then Alibaba will do well,” said company CEO DANIEL ZHANG. “We are eager to do our part to support the realization of common prosperity through high-quality development.”

Chinese companies like Alibaba or Tencent aren’t doing this out of the goodness of their heart: Beijing launched a strict regulatory and anti-monopoly campaign against these firms. Literally buying into Xi’s program might be a way to win some goodwill.

The Complex

TESTING, TESTING: The Air Force wants warplanes to be just as lethal at sea as submarines. To make that a reality, they’re testing shots of of 2,000-pound JDAMs from F-15Es against ships, the Military Times’ JAMES WEBB reported.

The QUICKSINK Joint Capability Technology Demonstration test is “an effort to rapidly develop and demonstrate a low-cost USAF capability to defeat surface vessels from the air,” Air Force 1st Lt. LINDSEY HEFLIN, public affairs adviser for the 53rd Wing, told Webb. “The initial demonstrations use a JDAM weapon for its ability to rapidly integrate and demonstrate the technologies. While the technology could be used on a JDAM, the goal is to transition the technology to future systems with longer ranges.”

Battle of Midway, anyone?

On the Hill

10 GOP SENATORS DEMAND AFGHANISTAN STRATEGY: Last night 10 Republican Senators, led by TODD YOUNG of Indiana, sent a letter to Biden requesting how he plans to evacuate the Americans and Afghans stuck in Afghanistan. Among the questions they want answers to:

— “What is your strategy for effectively providing consular services from Doha, Qatar to U.S. citizens, legal residents, and valid visa holders currently in Afghanistan?”

— “For Afghan evacuees who have been transported to Department of Defense (DOD) and state National Guard installations within the United States, will they be permitted, once they have received a medical clearance, to stay with family members, friends, or sponsors while awaiting final SIV or P-2 determination?”

The lawmakers request the president respond in a public and unclassified way as soon as possible. Copies of the letter were also sent to leaders at the State Department, Pentagon, and Department of Homeland Security.

Sen. Shaheen also sent a similar letter on her own today, meaning there’s bipartisan interest in getting these queries answered.

 

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Broadsides

'A DISHONORABLE EXIT': ELIOT A. COHEN, a national security and military scholar at Johns Hopkins University, pulled no punches in an op-ed today bashing Biden after leaving vulnerable Afghans behind and in harm’s way.

“In the current case, honor demanded that we do everything possible to rescue Afghans who served alongside us, not just those who applied for Special Immigrant Visas, which are numerically limited and hedged with qualifications (e.g., being paid by the U.S. government rather than by contractors). By any measure, the United States failed to do all it could,” he wrote in The Atlantic . “Honor also demanded that we assist those who took chances on their country—the 200 female Afghan judges, for example—because we encouraged them to step up in dangerous circumstances.”

NatSec Daily hears this refrain over and over again. Republicans like Cohen have fewer qualms about expressing it in public, while many Democrats we’ve talked to feel similarly but only say so in private.

Drinks with NatSec Daily

At the end of every long, hard week, we’re going to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene likes to unwind with a drink.

Today, we have BEN RHODES, the Obama alum, “Pod Save the World” co-host, and coiner of the DC natsec community’s favorite term “ the Blob.” When it’s drink o’clock, the California-based Rhodes says he enjoys “a tall Black Label as the sun sets on the Western edge of the United States.”

Your NatSec Daily host may just try that the next time he’s on another covert mission to visit his in-laws out West.

Transitions

JORDAN COHEN announced on Twitter that he’s joined the CATO Institute’s foreign policy program as a policy analyst. “I am looking forward to conducting research on arms sales and related sources of U.S. foreign entanglements,” he told NatSec Daily.

VIRAJ MIRANI, who was the chief of staff at ODNI for DAN COATS in the Trump administration, is now legislative director for Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.), per our Daniel Lippman. He most recently was senior government relations adviser at King & Spalding.

What to Read

— SARAH CHAYES, Foreign Affairs:Afghanistan’s Corruption Was Made in America

— DAVID PILLING, Financial Times:Africa has quietly become the epicentre of the Islamist threat

— STEPHANIE VAN DEN BERG, Reuters:Hunted by the men they jailed, Afghanistan’s women judges seek escape

Monday Today

— Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN will have just begun his swing through the Middle East. Per Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY, Austin will visit Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

— The Royal United Services Institute, 5 a.m.:The 9/11 Attacks, Two Decades On with The Rt Hon TONY BLAIR

— The European Council on Foreign Relations, 9:30 a.m.:Europe and the Indo-Pacific: Boosting Engagement with the Key Global Growth Region

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

Thanks to Ben Pauker, as always, for his edits.

 

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