France missed Australia's breakup signs

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Friday Sep 17,2021 07:59 pm
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By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

Presented by Lockheed Martin

With help from Daniel Lippman, Lara Seligman, Jonathan Custodio, Paul McLeary and Rym Momtaz

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What did France know, and when did they know it?

Per POLITICO’s RYM MOMTAZ, President EMMANUEL MACRON ’s administration found out about AUKUS — the clumsy acronym for the Australia-U.K.-U.S. nuclear-propelled submarine pact — via Australian media and a POLITICO story by your host Wednesday.

French officials in Washington and Paris were stunned. In response, multiple U.S. and French staffers told NatSec Daily that France’s Embassy in D.C. requested emergency discussions with the administration later Wednesday. The White House moved quickly, dispatching national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN to meet with French Ambassador PHILIPPE ETIENNE, and putting deputy national security adviser JON FINER on the phone with his counterpart in Paris.

Those chats occurred just hours before President JOE BIDEN announced AUKUS in a White House address alongside the British and Australian prime ministers.

This wasn’t the original plan. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN had been tapped to notify French Foreign Minister JEAN-YVES LE DRIAN of the impending accord, but only after Canberra contacted Paris. It was Australia who axed its multibillion-dollar sub deal with France, after all, not the United States.

Instead, Momtaz reported that “Australia informed France it was ending the contract to buy 12 conventional submarines mere hours before” the announcement by the three world leaders. In other words, it doesn’t appear that Canberra got Paris on the phone as early as Washington (and London) expected.

That all looks very bad, and it is. But look at the last few months, not the last few days, and it becomes obvious France had all the puzzle pieces it needed to see the full picture.

Australian Prime Minister SCOTT MORRISON revealed Friday he had raised the possibility of scrapping the 2016 French sub deal in talks with Macron three months ago.

“I made it very clear, we had a lengthy dinner there in Paris, about our very significant concerns about the capabilities of conventional submarines to deal with the new strategic environment we’re faced with,” Morrison said. “I made it very clear that this was a matter that Australia would need to make a decision on in our national interest.”

U.K. Defense Secretary BEN WALLACE also told an audience yesterday that Australian officials approached their British counterparts in March to discuss acquiring nuclear-powered submarines. Australia had concluded a yearlong study after which it decided France’s conventional subs weren’t what the country needed to face future threats, Wallace noted.

POLITICO’s Sydney-based ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH said Australia wasn’t too subtle about its displeasure, even in public. Back in June, for example, she noted Australian Defense Secretary GREG MORIARTY spoke in frustrated tones to a Senate committee hearing about the shaky French deal. “It became clear to me we were having challenges … over the last 15 to 12 months,” he said, adding that Australia was considering its options — including what it could do if it was “unable to proceed” with the terms of the arrangement.

Among other complaints, the Australian government was upset about the growing budget for the sub purchase, the protracted timeline for the project and persistent disputes over the use of local versus foreign workers.

Missed signals: In June, the White House issued a readout of a conversation Biden, Morrison and British Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON had on the sidelines of the G-7 summit in England: “They discussed a number of issues of mutual concern, including the Indo-Pacific region. They agreed that the strategic context in the Indo-Pacific was changing and that there was a strong rationale for deepening strategic cooperation between the three governments.”

The French are rightly upset no one told them of the Wednesday announcement before reading about it in the papers. But Paris also should acknowledge that the breakup was a long time coming — they just didn’t realize it until it was too late.

Still, the French seem to blame officials in Washington and Canberra more than Paris. “At the request of the President of the Republic, I have decided to immediately recall our two ambassadors to the United States and Australia to Paris for consultations,” Le Drian, the foreign minister, said today. “This exceptional decision is justified by the exceptional gravity of the announcements made on 15 September by Australia and the United States.”

 

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The Inbox

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — AUSTIN TO APPROVE ALL AFGHANISTAN STRIKES: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN must now personally approve all military strikes in Afghanistan, including those targeting terrorists, three defense officials with direct knowledge of the move told our own LARA SELIGMAN.

Austin made the decision last week to pull targeting authority up to his level on the heels of the American exit from Afghanistan at the end of August, the sources said. This means the head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. FRANK MCKENZIE, now must ask Austin to approve any strike action in the country. Previously, McKenzie could green-light the attacks without seeking input from his boss.

One defense official called Austin’s move a “routine decision, given the change in our operational footprint in Afghanistan.”

But it comes as the Pentagon acknowledged that a drone strike ordered in late August in Kabul killed an innocent aid worker , not a member of the Islamic State terrorist group planning an "imminent" threat to the Kabul airport. An investigation by U.S. Central Command also determined the strike killed nine other members of the man's family, including seven children, McKenzie told reporters on Friday.

MILLEY SPEAKS: In his first public remarks on the explosive allegations contained in the new book by The Washington Post’s BOB WOODWARD and ROBERT COSTA, Gen. MARK MILLEY described his calls to his Chinese counterpart in the final days of the Trump administration as “perfectly within the duties and responsibilities” of his mandate as chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, per The Associated Press’ LOLITA C. BALDOR.

The conversations with Gen. LI ZUOCHENG of the People’s Liberation Army — reportedly to reassure officials in Beijing that the United States would not suddenly strike China without warning — were “routine” and intended “to reassure both allies and adversaries in this case in order to ensure strategic stability,” Milley said while traveling in Europe.

Both Biden and Austin have expressed confidence in the general amid the book controversy and ahead of his sure-to-be contentious congressional testimony later this month. “I think it’s best that I reserve my comments on the record until I do that in front of the lawmakers who have the lawful responsibility to oversee the U.S. military,” Milley said Friday, adding that he would “go into any level of detail Congress wants to go into” when he appears on Capitol Hill on Sept. 28.

DOD WILL HELP CAPITOL POLICE: The Pentagon confirmed Friday it will assist the Capitol Police ahead of a right-wing rally in Washington tomorrow.

“On September 17, Secretary of Defense Austin approved a request from the Capitol Hill Police Board to provide 100 members of the Washington D.C. National Guard who will be stationed at the D.C. Armory as a Physical Security Task Force to augment law enforcement,” the statement sent to reporters read.

“The D.C. National Guard will join a number of local law enforcement agencies in supporting the Capitol Police. Should the Capitol Police require assistance, they will first utilize local, state, and Federal law enforcement capabilities before requesting the deployment of the Physical Security Task Force. The task force will only be deployed upon request of the Capitol Police to help protect the U.S. Capitol Building and Congressional Office buildings by manning building entry points and verifying credentials of individuals seeking access to the building.”

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BOOK DETAILS BIDEN-PUTIN “KILLER” CALL: Woodward and Costa's “Peril” has some fly-on-the-wall details of a call between Biden and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, in which the Kremlin leader confronted the American for calling him a “killer” in an interview.

“I’m upset you called me a killer,” Putin said, per pages from the book seen by NatSec Daily. “I was asked a question,” Biden responded, saying his comments weren’t premeditated. Putin then went on a mini tirade, mentioning the United States’ treatment of Native Americans and the nuclear bombs it dropped on Japan during World War II. “It takes one [a killer] to know one,” he quipped.

Months later, Putin would tell reporters he was satisfied with Biden’s explanation for why he called him a “killer.”

That’s not all they discussed during the conversation; Putin also denied Russia interfered in American elections. “You’re wrong about everything,” Putin said. “You have no evidence. We didn’t interfere in your election. We didn’t do any of these things.”

Biden rebuffed his counterpart. “I’m warning you we are coming at you with these responses,” he said, noting a series of pending sanctions. “They will happen this week and I want you to hear it from me directly. And it’s because of the specific things you’ve done. I’ve said I would respond and I’m responding.”

POTENTIAL SANCTIONS TARGETING ETHIOPIA CONFLICT: Biden signed an executive order Friday allowing for sanctions against people continuing hostilities during Ethiopia’s bloody and grueling war. The penalties can be imposed on anyone “directly or indirectly engaged” in ongoing violence, human rights abuses including the targeting of civilians, anti-democratic actions and much more.

That mainly targets people in the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments, the Tigray People's Liberation Front, and the Amhara regional government, along with any other individuals or entities, our own JONATHAN CUSTODIO reports. But the sanctions can be avoided if the Ethiopian government and the TPLF take meaningful steps to enter into negotiations without preconditions and allow for unhindered humanitarian access.

“The United States is determined to push for a peaceful resolution of this conflict, and we will provide full support to those leading mediation efforts, including the African Union High Representative for the Horn of Africa OLUSEGUN OBASANJO,” Biden said in a statement. “We fully agree with United Nations and African Union leaders: there is no military solution to this crisis.”

Senior administration officials said they “are looking at weeks, not months” until the negotiations begin, although there is no specific timeline.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), who Biden previously dispatched to Ethiopia to pass along America’s stance on the war, backed the White House’s move.

“Continuing human rights abuses by the parties to the conflict in Ethiopia warrant an unequivocal response: We will not tolerate war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic violence. In that vein, we will unveil a new legislative effort in the coming weeks for Congress to drastically bolster U.S. efforts to pursue accountability for the carnage in the Tigray region as this protracted ethnic conflict approaches the one year mark,” they said in a joint statement. “The scale and nature of the abuses in Tigray and neighboring regions is staggering and we fully support President Biden’s focus on this crisis, including today’s Executive Order.”

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.) of “get the generals off TV ” fame. The former Marine infantryman and current House Armed Services Committee member relaxes with bourbon on the rocks and prefers Basil Hayden’s when it’s available.

But where to enjoy such a libation? When Gallego is in Washington, he’ll sip that sweet nectar at Joe’s Seafood, Prime Steak & Stone Crab. And when back in Phoenix, he stops by Durant’s at drink o’clock. Cheers, congressman!

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

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Make sure to join POLITICO on Thursday, Oct. 7, for our inaugural defense forum , where we’ll talk to the decision-makers in the White House, Congress, military and defense industry who are reshaping American power abroad and redefining military readiness for the future of warfare. Assure your spot by registering here.

Flashpoints

NAVALNY APP AXED: Apple and Google removed an app designed by Russian dissident ALEXEI NAVALNY’s team to coordinate protests from their in-country stores, per multiple reports. The moves come ahead of crucial Russian parliamentary elections this weekend. Google complied with the Russian regime’s request to take down the Smart Voting app after direct threats of criminal prosecution against the company’s staff, while Apple has yet to explain its rationale.

“That app is illegal,” chief Kremlin spokesperson DMITRI PESKOV said during a Friday call with reporters. “Both platforms have been notified, and in accordance with the law, they made these decisions, as it seems.”

Navalny’s app helped people rally around a candidate opposing members of Putin’s United Russia party. But ever since Russian authorities arrested and imprisoned Navalny earlier this year, the Kremlin has been relentless in cracking down on the dissident’s team and its projects. The forced app removal is yet another front in the Putin-Navalny showdown that could lead to further tensions in the days ahead.

Keystrokes

U.S. GOING AFTER CRYPTO RANSOMWARE ATTACKS: To stop the uptick in ransomware attacks — where for many victims, the only resolution is paying the online assailants in cryptocurrency — the Biden administration is preparing a slew of punitive actions, such as sanctions, to make life more difficult for the offender.

“The Treasury Department plans to impose the sanctions as soon as next week, the people said, and will issue fresh guidance to businesses on the risks associated with facilitating ransomware payments, including fines and other penalties,” The Wall Street Journal’s IAN TALLEY and DUSTIN VOLZ reported. “Later this year, expected new anti-money-laundering and terror-finance rules will seek to limit the use of cryptocurrency as a payment mechanism in ransomware attacks and other illicit activities.”

So how can Treasury do this? The department “would need to target the digital wallets that receive ransom transactions, the crypto platforms that help exchange one set of blockchain coins for another to obscure the culprits and the people that own or manage those operations, according to analysts who specialize in such transactions,” Talley and Volz wrote.

NEW “VULNERABILITY” AFFECTING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FIRMS: A joint release from the FBI, CISA and CGCYBER Thursday evening says a self-service password management and single sign-on software used by important organizations is under threat from top hackers.

“[A]dvanced persistent threat (APT) cyber actors are likely among those exploiting the vulnerability,” the agencies warned. “The exploitation of this vulnerability poses a serious risk to critical infrastructure companies, U.S.-cleared defense contractors, academic institutions, and other entities that use the software.” It’s unclear how big the scale of the hack is at this time.

 

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The Complex

SPACE FORCE WANTS “TRASH TRUCKS”: Someone needs to collect the thousands of pieces of junk floating in orbit, and the Space Force wants a fleet of “trash trucks” to collect it all.

“We need to pick up debris — we need trash trucks. We need things to go make debris go away,” Maj. Gen. DEANNA BURT , vice commander of Space Force Special Operations Command, told an audience in Maui on Thursday. “That’s definitely a need, and I think there is a use case for industry to get after that as a service-based opportunity.”

The U.S. government currently tracks roughly 27,000 pieces of what is known by the very sophisticated, very technical term “space junk.” However, NASA says “[m]uch more debris — too small to be tracked, but large enough to threaten human spaceflight and robotic missions — exists in the near-Earth space environment.”

Per Breaking Defense’s THERESA HITCHENS, the Space Force has yet to build a program or acquire materials to pick up the trash.

On the Hill

DEMOCRATS AGONIZE OVER AFGHANISTAN INVESTIGATIONS: At least six Democrat-led congressional committees are promising to probe parts of the Afghanistan withdrawal, “regardless of the possible political consequences for a president who is already facing significant hurdles for his domestic agenda as well as sagging poll numbers,” per our own ANDREW DESIDERIO.

The Democratic lawmakers leading the investigations — seeking to thwart Republican efforts to blame solely Biden for Afghanistan’s collapse — “have promised a broad look at the failures by officials who served in previous administrations of both parties,” Desiderio writes.

But some within the party are still unsatisfied with the oversight approach. “As usual, a lot of Democrats are choosing to play on the ground created by Republicans, are choosing to fit into the narrative that they’ve constructed — and I think that’s a mistake,” said Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.).

Broadsides

LEAVING AFGHANISTAN HURTS INDIA, HELPS CHINA: The Wall Street Journal’s SADANAND DHUME believes the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan will hurt a key ally and help its main global rival.

“Islamabad-aided terrorist groups will almost certainly use Afghanistan to organize attacks on Indian-controlled Kashmir and other parts of the country,” the opinion columnist wrote. “The longstanding Indian goal of gaining access to Central Asia by building a port and railway line through Iran and Afghanistan remains a pipe dream. Facing these challenges, India will likely have less resolve and fewer resources to contribute to facing the China threat.”

“You can’t neatly compartmentalize the threat from China by ignoring trouble spots like Afghanistan. Instead of ratcheting up pressure on Beijing, Mr. Biden may have eased it by endangering an important partner,” Dhume added.

Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI may bring up similar concerns during his in-person visit to the White House next week for a leader-level gathering of “The Quad.”

Transitions

— BRIAN VOGT is now a director for democracy and human rights at the National Security Council. He most recently was senior democracy, human rights and governance adviser for Asia at USAID.

— The president has nominated NICKOLAS GUERTIN as director of operational test and evaluation at the Defense Department, and JOHN SHERMAN as the Pentagon’s chief information officer.

What to Read

— FAZELMINALLAH QAZIZAI, Newlines Magazine:The Drone Unit that Helped the Taliban Win the War

— MAREK N. POSARD, LESLIE ADRIENNE PAYNE and LAURA L. MILLER, The RAND Corporation:Reducing the Risk of Extremist Activity in the U.S. Military

— SUKETU MEHTA, Time:The One Story That Captures the Immigrant Experience Like No Other

Tomorrow Today

— Chatham House, 8 a.m.:The Politics of Alexei Navalny: What is the Impact on Russia? — with JAN MATTI DOLLBAUM, MORVAN LALLOUET, TOMILA LANKINA and BEN NOBLE

— The Brookings Institution, 1 p.m.:American leadership in advancing the sustainable development goals — with ELIZABETH COUSENS, BUDDY DYER, KATE GALLEGO, SARA JACOBS, CYNTHIA YUE and more”

— The Wilson Center, 3:15 p.m.:Humanity in Motion and Colombia: A Conversation with President IVÁN DUQUE MÁRQUEZ — with CYNTHIA J. ARNSON, MARK GREEN and TIM KAINE

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 5 p.m.:Subcomite Hearing: Briefing on Biological Security Threats

A message from Lockheed Martin:

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The F-35 program generates $49 billion in economic impact and supports over a quarter of a million high-tech, high-skill jobs. Learn More

 

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, noted Francophile Ben Pauker, for always calling well in advance to tell us about his plans.

 

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