Congress is full of Uzbekistan stans

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Wednesday Oct 13,2021 08:02 pm
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By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

Presented by Lockheed Martin

With help from Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman.

August Pfluger speaks during a hearing.

Rep. August Pfluger was one of four House Republicans who traveled to Uzbekistan to meet with top officials last week. | Ting Shen-Pool/Getty Images

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Uzbekistan is quietly mounting an aggressive outreach campaign to U.S. officials in hopes of creating tighter links between Washington and Tashkent — and it seems to be working.

Pentagon officials are participating in a delegation this month to Uzbekistan to discuss ongoing security cooperation efforts, a defense official and a congressional official briefed on the trip told our own LARA SELIGMAN . Top of the agenda will be the possibility of housing "over the horizon" counterterrorism forces, an arrangement that would allow the U.S. military to more easily surveil and strike targets in Afghanistan.

The Biden administration has been in discussions with Uzbekistan and other countries that border the Taliban-controlled nation for months now, with little to show for it.

This comes as Uzbekistan has welcomed many U.S. officials in recent days.

Last week, four House Republicans traveled to Uzbekistan on Tashkent’s dime to meet with top officials, including chatting for over two hours with President SHAVKAT MIRZIYOYEV. “I was impressed by him,” Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), a member of the Uzbekistan Caucus and House Armed Services Committee who went on the trip, told NatSec Daily. After speaking with Mirziyoyev, Bacon said he believes Uzbekistan can “grow into a democratic nation that turns into a protector of human rights” — despite credible reports the president is rigging an upcoming election. “I think they’re on a positive journey of reform, but there’s more to do,” Bacon said.

And on Tuesday, a group led by House Foreign Affairs Chair GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) returned from their own, separate trip to Uzbekistan. Per a news release, “the delegation met with Uzbek government leaders to convey their appreciation for the support Uzbekistan provided to the U.S.-led evacuation efforts from Afghanistan and discuss regional security challenges.”

Why so much attention? U.S. officials say Uzbekistan moved up on the priority list after the withdrawal from Afghanistan. The two countries neighbor each other and Tashkent was open to discussions about bringing in refugees and hosting American troops, though it so far has disappointed on both fronts. Still, some lawmakers see Uzbekistan as a country uniquely positioned to help the U.S. secure regional interests down the line.

“I’m concerned about the notion that the U.S. can keep eyes and ears inside Afghanistan now that we’re outside,” Rep. AUGUST PFLUGER (R-Texas), a House Foreign Affairs Committee member who went on the trip, told us. “Having a friend in the region in geographic proximity to that potential terrorist safe haven is important tactically and strategically.”

But it's not just happenstance: The Uzbek Embassy in Washington, D.C., has worked overtime to meet and build relationships with lawmakers and administration aides. “They are in the top one, two or three in reaching out to our office,” Bacon said, “and they’re one of the most proactive embassies I’ve seen.” JOSEPH MERANTE, executive director of The Humpty Dumpty Institute, which handled logistics for the House Republican trip, noted the “Uzbek Embassy is one of most professional and active embassies with which we have worked.”

It looks like their efforts are paying off. Uzbekistan’s foreign minister already held meetings with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, and Tashkent’s promises to reform have won over many on the right.

Bacon told us he will push to remove trade barriers between the U.S. and Uzbekistan, and is working to host a delegation in Nebraska to discuss agricultural cooperation and other issues. He also hopes to build a sister-city relationship between a Nebraskan and Uzbek urban center. Pfluger added the U.S. can help Uzbekistan with its water scarcity problem, adding that his district in West Texas knows a lot about how to deal with that dilemma.

Uzbekistan’s embassy and government, which didn’t respond to requests for comment, still has its work cut out for it. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom today released a new report estimating that the country has imprisoned 2,000 individuals for their religious beliefs. And even pro-Uzbekistan lawmakers admit media and political freedoms in the Central Asian nation are under threat.

But Uzbekistan’s relentless drive has on the whole boosted its image in official Washington — yet another testament to the power of facetime and money in this town.

The Inbox

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — U.S. SUBMARINE HIT FIXED OBJECT: An American nuclear attack submarine hit an unmoving object in an allision, a defense official and person familiar told Alex and Lara.

The incident occurred on Oct. 2, injuring 11 U.S. sailors on USS Connecticut as it was traveling in the South China Sea. The Pentagon didn’t release information on the event until five days later because the Navy wanted to ensure the vessel made it to Guam safely, one of the people said, though the delay has led to accusations of a cover-up by China.

But our sources say that the submarine hit a stationary object, with one person saying it was a seawall. That adds to previous reporting by USNI News that the submarine didn’t hit another vessel.

The Navy has yet to state what exactly the submarine hit, and if there will be any reprimands for the skipper. However, yesterday Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said the submarine did strike “an object submerged.”

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY DEM LAWMAKERS WANT DOD WRONGFUL TARGETING REVIEW: Two progressive Democrats wrote a letter to SecDef Austin demanding the Pentagon stop killing innocent civilians and improve the way it investigates and admits mistakes.

“The Department of Defense's ... tendency to wrongly target innocent civilians and significantly under-investigate and undercount civilian casualties must end. We strongly urge you to take a more thoughtful look at both of these issues,” wrote Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.), both members of their respective armed services panels.

After first claiming that its Aug. 29 drone strike that killed 10 non-combatants was “righteous,” the Pentagon backtracked and admitted it had made a “tragic mistake .” The lawmakers want Austin and his team to “undertake rigorous investigations in all the other places and for all the other incidents in which U.S. operations have threatened civilians, including other strikes in Afghanistan as well as Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, Syria, and Libya and to recognize and amend harm when harm is confirmed.”

The letter is yet another sign of the fallout since the errant bombing, indicating the Pentagon will continue to face pressure to own up to its fatal errors.

NORTH KOREA’S SHIRTLESS MILITARY DISPLAY: In one of the weirder North Korean videos to date, state-run television released footage of a military demonstration in front of leader KIM JONG UN featuring shirtless troops lying on glass, getting hit with hammers, and breaking through bricks with their face — all to persistent applause. (Trust us: It’s really worth the click.)

The images come from the country’s self-defense exhibition on Monday, in which Kim put his most dangerous weapons and military advancements on display. The despot says he’s developing an “invincible” army to deter aggression from the United States, and that he has no plans to reignite the Korean War of the 1950s.

North Korea has been more aggressive in the latter months of President JOE BIDEN ’s first year, testing new missiles and top officials making increasingly aggressive statements toward Washington and Seoul. Experts say not to look too deeply into these provocations, as it’s just what Pyongyang does when it feels it has the space to do it. Others note that North Korea is responding to South Korea’s own military advances in recent months.

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

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Flashpoints

U.S. TELLS IRAN IT’S TIME TO RETURN TO NUCLEAR DEAL: In fresh remarks today about the Iran nuclear deal, Blinken warned again that “time is running short” for Tehran to reenter the 2015 multinational agreement — known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — which former President DONALD TRUMP withdrew the United States from in 2018.

Appearing alongside Israeli Alternate Prime Minister and Foreign Minister YAIR LAPID and United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister ABDULLAH BIN ZAYED AL NAHYAN in a joint news conference at the State Department, Blinken said the United States has “made abundantly clear over the last nine months that we are prepared to return to full compliance with the JCPOA if Iran does the same.”

But “what we are seeing — or maybe, more accurately, not seeing — from Tehran now suggests that they’re not,” Blinken continued. “And time is running short because … we are getting closer to a point at which returning to compliance with the JCPOA will not in and of itself recapture the benefits of the JCPOA.”

“That runway is getting shorter,” he added. “I’m not going to put a specific date on it. But with every passing day and Iran’s refusal to engage in good faith, the runway gets shortened.”

Meanwhile, U.S. special envoy for Iran ROBERT MALLEY, speaking today at a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace event , assessed that the United States has to “prepare for a world — which we’re doing now in consultation with our partners from the region — a world where Iran doesn’t have constraints on its nuclear program,” per CNN’s NATASHA BERTRAND. “And we have to consider options to dealing with that, which is what we are doing, even as we hope that we can get back to the deal.”

TALIBAN BRACE FOR BRUTAL WINTER: Afghanistan could be facing a particularly worrisome winter season following a period of relative peace under the Taliban’s new government, per Newsweek’s DAVID BRENNAN, as the country contends with economic disaster, citizen protests and threats from ISIS-K.

NADER NADERY , the former head of the Afghan civil service commission, predicted that “there will be a humanitarian catastrophe” in a matter of weeks. And OMAR ZAKHILWAL, a former Afghan finance minister, said that although the “current situation is certainly preferable to warfare,” it is “not a happy state either — there is a lot of uncertainty, economic hardship, fear, and frustration that needs to be responded to.”

The comments from the former government officials come after the United Nations warned last month that 1 million children in Afghanistan could die if immediate relief is not sent to the country, and millions more people may not be able to maintain their supplies of food as winter approaches. The intergovernmental organization ultimately raised more than $1.1 billion in new aid, including an additional $64 million from the United States.

Keystrokes

GLOBAL RANSOMWARE CONFERENCE: The National Security Council is hosting a virtual conference with over 30 countries and the European Union to find a global solution to the growing ransomware crisis.

“This meeting [is] the first of many conversations among the international partners participating this week and beyond,” a senior administration official told reporters Tuesday, speaking on background according to White House policy.

The four-part strategy, per the official, is: 1) “disrupt ransomware infrastructure and actors,” 2) “bolstering resilience to withstand ransomware attacks,” 3) “addressing the abuse of virtual currency to launder ransom payments, and 4) “leveraging international cooperation to disrupt the ransomware ecosystem and address safe harbors for ransomware criminals.”

The NSC and its counterparts will provide the key takeaway of the two-day meetings tomorrow. Per the White House, ransomware payments were over $400 million globally in 2020, and at $81 million for the first quarter of 2021.

 

THE MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE 2021 IS HERE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider” newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from one of the largest and most influential gatherings of experts reinventing finance, health, technology, philanthropy, industry and media. Don’t miss a thing from the 24th annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, from Oct. 17 to 20. Can't make it? We've got you covered. Planning to attend? Enhance your #MIGlobal experience and subscribe today.

 
 
The Complex

DELAY ON NEW TOP DOD WEAPONS BUYER: SecDef Austin is in no rush to bring on a permanent weapons acquisition chief after the first choice withdrew himself from consideration, report our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!)

“It’s more important for [Austin] to have the right people in the right places … than it is to rush,” DOD spokesperson Kirby told reporters on Tuesday when asked about the continued vacancy.

For the moment, GREGORY KAUSNER has been performing the duties of undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. But if the Biden administration doesn’t settle on a nominee soon, it means no Senate-confirmed official will be in place to complete two annual budget requests.

On the Hill

FINAL DEFENSE BILL COMING: Our Morning D colleagues have the skinny on Congress’ fourth and final version of the defense bill, namely that it’s likely to appear this week while Senate appropriators discuss whether or not to boost Pentagon spending above Biden’s wishes.

“Momentum has been building for a major increase even though the House version of the fiscal 2022 defense appropriations bill stuck to Biden's $715 billion budget. It hasn’t yet come to the floor, where it faces Republican opposition that could be enough to sink it,” per our colleagues at Morning D. “Meanwhile, the SASC adopted a $25 billion boost in its version of the NDAA with broad bipartisan support. And the HASC followed suit with a similar increase in its own defense bill while soundly rejecting attempts to undo it on the floor.”

The question now is if Senate Defense Appropriations Chair JON TESTER (D-Mont.) will follow the NDAA’s lead.

For more, subscribe to Morning Defense.

 

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Broadsides

PROGRESSIVES KEEP RIPPING DEM’S TAIWAN OP-ED: Loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember we highlighted a Monday op-ed in the Washington Post by Rep. ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.), who argued the president should send U.S. troops to repel a Chinese attack on Taiwan even without Congressional approval. Progressives and anti-interventionist advocates keep bashing the article.

“This week marks the 19th anniversary of the passage of the Iraq AUMF, and the Washington Post is observing it by running an op-ed repurposing ‘In order to avoid war, we must grant the president war authority!’ for China,” tweeted MATT DUSS , the foreign policy adviser to Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.).

“[N]othing to see here, just Elaine Luria advocating for a preventative AUMF to defend #Taiwan, claiming such falsehoods as such an act by the United States would not undo strategic ambiguity or risk escalating the situation vis-a-vis #China uncontrollably,” tweeted KATE KIZER, policy director for Win Without War.

Luria’s piece made waves in part because it was a Democrat who wrote it. It’s mainly left-leaning lawmakers who want Congress to reclaim its war-authorization powers, and here’s a Democrat making the opposite case about one of the world’s greatest flashpoints. However, there is a growing bipartisan consensus to do away with any “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan by the U.S. and tell Beijing that America will for sure come to Taipei’s defense.

Watch this space — the debate will only get more contentious from here.

Transitions

— DAVID E. WHITE JR. is now at the National Security Council as the senior adviser to the White House coordinator for Operation Allies Welcome, the whole-of-government effort to resettle Afghan evacuees in the U.S. He was most recently a vetting attorney at the office of presidential personnel at the White House. White is a veteran of the Afghanistan war.

— HEIDI GRANT, the Pentagon’s top official overseeing foreign military sales, has announced she is leaving her post and the federal government on Nov. 6. Grant is the first civilian to serve as director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency in its 50-year history. DSCA Deputy Director JED ROYAL will assume Grant’s duties as acting director after she departs. Read more from our own PAUL MCLEARY (for Pros!).

NEDA BROWN is now director for the Caribbean and Summit of the Americas at the National Security Council. She most recently was a student at the National War College and has spent almost 20 years at the State Department as a career foreign service officer.

VERNON SAUNDERS has been appointed senior vice president of the National Intelligence Community Business Unit at Science Applications International Corporation. A former U.S. Air Force officer, Sauders previously held executive positions at Huntington Ingalls Industries, Jacobs National Security Solutions and Verizon.

SCOTT CULLINANE is now the Helmut Schmidt Visiting Fellow at the German Marshall Fund. He is the executive director of the U.S.-Europe Alliance.

KENNETH MERTEN will become chargé d'affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Haiti. Merten currently is the principal deputy assistant secretary in the State Department’s Bureau of Global Talent Management, Office of the Director General. He previously served as the U.S. ambassador to Croatia and Haiti.

 

“A FOREIGN POLICY BUILT FOR WOMEN” – JOIN US THURSDAY FOR A WOMEN RULE CONVERSATION: Building a foreign policy agenda with women at the center has shown that it can advance broader social, economic and political goals. It also requires having women in influential decision-making positions. Join POLITICO Magazine senior editor Usha Sahay for a joint conversation with Ambassador Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, the State Department’s chief diversity and inclusion officer, and Ambassador Bonnie Denise Jenkins, undersecretary for arms control and international security, focused on the roadblocks preventing more women from rising through the ranks of diplomacy and why closing the foreign policy gender gap matters. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
What to Read

— DAVID PIERSON and MARCUS YAM, The Los Angeles Times:An errant U.S. drone strike killed 10 members of their family. They’re still awaiting compensation

— ANDREA MITCHELL, KEN DILANIAN and BRENDA BRESLAUER, NBC News:‘Seized by some invisible hand’: What it feels like to have Havana Syndrome

— DEBAK DAS, War on the Rocks:China’s Missile Silos and the Sino-Indian Nuclear Competition

Tomorrow Today

— The Potomac Officers Club, 8 a.m.:2021 Intelligence Summit — with SCOTT BERRIER, DOUG COSSA, SUSAN DURHAM, LA'NAIA JONES, RAMESH MENON and more”

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.:2021 Global Development Forum — with RUTH BERRY, KARAN BHATIA, MARK CARRATO, LINDA ETIM, FABRIZIO OPERTTI and more”

— The United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.:The 30th Anniversary of Cambodia’s Paris Peace Agreements — with ARIEL ECKBLAD, CRAIG ETCHESON, LISE GRANDE, CAROLINE HUGHES, CHUM SOUNRY and more”

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: The Capital Cable with IVO H. DAALDER — with VICTOR CHA, MARK LIPPERT and SUE MI TERRY

— The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.:Standardizing the future: How can the United States navigate the geopolitics of international technology standards? — with JULIAN MUELLER-KALER, GIULIA NEAHER, PAUL SAFFO, MARY SAUNDERS, FRANCES M. TOWNSEND, STEPHANIE WANDER and more”

— The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.:Book Talk: ‘Afghanistan Kabul Kurier’ — with MICHAEL KUGELMAN, MATTHEW ROJANSKY and PETER B. ZWACK

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.:Evergrande and the Chinese Economy — with JOHN LEE and LELAND MILLER

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 1 p.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: Tunisia: Examining the State of Democracy and Next Steps for U.S. Policy

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

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