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Presented by Lockheed Martin: From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | Welcome to National Security Daily, your guide to the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint The Biden administration increasingly believes the Iran nuclear deal is on death’s door. Flanked by his Israeli and Emirati counterparts yesterday, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said “time is running short” for Tehran to reenter the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The United States has “made abundantly clear over the last nine months that we are prepared to return to full compliance with the JCPOA if Iran does the same,” Blinken said. But “what we are seeing — or maybe, more accurately, not seeing — from Tehran now suggests that they’re not,” Blinken continued. “And time is running short because … we are getting closer to a point at which returning to compliance with the JCPOA will not in and of itself recapture the benefits of the JCPOA.” Asked about Blinken’s comments over text, a senior administration official effectively repeated the line, except in a starker tone: “Everything we are hearing, seeing and not seeing from Iran suggests they are not interested in a realistic return to the deal.” Those comments –– but especially the latter one –– indicate the patience within Biden’s team is wearing thin. A senior Democratic Senate aide said the administration isn’t waving a white flag behind closed doors just yet, but officials are signaling despair. “Is it increasingly unlikely? Absolutely. Are they calling it? Not to my knowledge,” the staffer said. Since Iran’s new president came to power in August , the Islamic Republic has refused to talk about America’s reentry into the pact former President DONALD TRUMP withdrew from. The new team says they’ll sit down for negotiations “soon,” but have not given any indication they will follow through. The European Union’s Iran envoy, ENRIQUE MORA, traveled to Tehran today to jump-start sputtering nuclear deal negotiations . As of yet there’s no information on the outcome of his outreach. When NatSec Daily interviewed the U.S. special envoy for Iran ROBERT MALLEY in August, he said the administration was planning for a potential Plan B if talks failed. One possibility was that Washington and Tehran could sign a wholly separate deal, complete with different parameters than the current accord. Another was a suite of punitive responses in coordination with European allies, though Malley didn’t specifically detail what those would be. With each passing day, it’s looking more and more like the administration will have to execute on one of those alternatives. Last week, though, State Department spokesperson NED PRICE said “we’re not entertaining at the moment, or at least not discussing publicly, other modalities, other alternatives because we still have a framework in the form of the JCPOA that would provide precisely what we would like to see.” But, he added, the future of the deal “is hinging on the Iranians.” | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovation and Partnership Advance Long-Range Precision Fires
PrSM joins the U.S. Army's precision fires arsenal using transformational technology on a rapid timeline to support Joint All-Domain Operations. Learn More | | | | | | BACK IN THE HOT SEAT: The United States is back in the U.N. Human Rights Council, reversing Trump’s decision three years ago. Rejoining the UNHRC will allow the U.S. to “stand with human rights defenders and speak out against violations and abuses of human rights,” said U.N. Ambasssdor LINDA-THOMAS GREENFIELD in a statement. The administration’s initial focus in the committee will be on Afghanistan, Myanmar, China, Ethiopia, Syria and Yemen, she said. The body’s members elected America into the panel alongside Eritrea, the United Arab Emirates and Cameroon. The move is controversial as the UNHRC has long been seen as an anti-Israel panel, one reason why Trump withdrew America from it. But Thomas-Greenfield vowed the U.S. “will oppose the Council's disproportionate attention on Israel, which includes the Council's only standing agenda item targeting a single country.” DEADLY FIREFIGHT IN BEIRUT: A day-long shooting broke out in the Lebanese capital after gunmen fired upon a Thursday Hezbollah demonstration, ultimately killing around six people and injuring another 30 — the largest city bout since 2008. No group has claimed the attack, but Hezbollah blamed Lebanese Forces, a rival right-wing Christian group. IMAD WAKIM, a lawmaker in the group, didn’t say he or his cohorts were behind the attack, but did tweet , “The confrontations that started are not between a party and a party, they are not between a sect and a sect or a region and region. It is the confrontation between Hezbollah and the rest of the Lebanese who are free from all sects, in order to preserve what remains of the state’s institutions and to protect it from the party’s hegemony … It is to preserve justice.” Hezbollah is Lebanon’s most powerful military and political force, though the group remains designated by the U.S. as a terrorist group. They’ve been rallying against the judge who’s overseeing the probe into the deadly Beirut blast last year. The group opposes an impartial investigation because the result could make the party look bad, experts say. But many other Lebanese people want to find out exactly why tons of explosive material was left to rot in a busy port, only to eventually detonate and kill over 200 people. U.S. PLANS RESUMPTION OF AFGHAN EVAC FLIGHTS: The State Department is working to restart evacuation flights in Afghanistan by the end of the year, per The Wall Street Journal’s JESSICA DONATI. “The State Department has yet to schedule a date to resume evacuation flights because it is still working through arrangements with neighboring countries, the State Department official said. Among the issues being worked out are documentation for travelers, permission to fly over other countries and procedures with the Taliban and foreign governments,” she reported. “As soon as we have the right combination of documentation and logistics, we will get going again,” tahe senior State Department official told her. It’s unclear what the Taliban thinks of this plan –– NatSec Daily has reached out for comment, though. KERRY FEARS U.N. TALKS WON’T HIT CLIMATE TARGET: The U.S. special envoy for climate change, JOHN KERRY, told the Associated Press he fears a major U.N. meeting next month won’t lead to enough emissions reductions to stave off the worst environmental effects. “We will hopefully be moving very close to that … though there will be a gap and … we’ve got to be honest about the gap, and we have to use the gap as further motivation to continue to accelerate as fast as we can,” Kerry told ELLEN KNICKMEYER about the cuts pledged compared to actual cuts. Kerry also said that the U.S. failing to pass climate change legislation in Congress “would be like President Trump pulling out of the Paris agreement, again.” The Biden administration believes climate change is a top national security threat, and has worked to build a global movement to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. So far, though, the U.S. isn’t getting as much worldwide support as it hoped. Biden will send 12 Cabinet members to the COP26 meeting in Glasgow, including Blinken and U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator SAMANTHA POWER. NORWAY KILLINGS MAYBE 'ACT OF TERRORISM': The death of five Norwegians at the hands of a Danish man using a bow and arrow looks like a terrorist attack, local police said today. “The incidents in Kongsberg appear at the moment as an act of terrorism, but the investigation ... will clarify in more detail what the incidents were motivated by,” the Norwegian Police Security Service said in a statement (which we Google translated). Per Norwegian authorities, the assailant was a Muslim convert known to officials, but the exact reason for the attack remains unclear. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JonnyCustodio. | | | | THE MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE 2021 IS HERE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider” newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from one of the largest and most influential gatherings of experts reinventing finance, health, technology, philanthropy, industry and media. Don’t miss a thing from the 24th annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, from Oct. 17 to 20. Can't make it? We've got you covered. Planning to attend? Enhance your #MIGlobal experience and subscribe today. | | | | | | | | UZBEKISTAN REJECTS IDEA OF U.S. CT TROOPS: Yesterday’s NatSec Daily made some waves in Uzbekistan, particularly the bit about Pentagon officials participating in a delegation this month to the country to discuss ongoing security cooperation efforts. In Uzbekistan, that led to a belief that American forces would be stationed there as part of the “over the horizon” counterterrorism campaign in Afghanistan. But Uzbekistan’s Foreign Minister ABDULAZIZ KAMILOV firmly rejected that idea. "This is out of the question," he said, per a report in the Russian news agency TASS. This hurts the administration’s continued effort to convince nations near Afghanistan to host American service members. Russia is against it, and that’s scaring off some Central Asian nations, experts say, though they also note these countries have their own reasons for not wanting to be part of an ongoing U.S.-led CT mission. | | | RECOMMENDATIONS FROM RANSOMWARE SUMMIT: The Biden administration and governments of more than 30 countries attending the U.S.-led ransomware summit released a joint statement at the end of their meeting today that included recommendations for thwarting cybercriminals across four broad subject areas: resilience, countering illicit finance, disruption and other law enforcement efforts, and diplomacy. In their joint statement, the governments called ransomware “an escalating global security threat with serious economic and security consequences.” They added: “As with other cyber threats, the threat of ransomware is complex and global in nature and requires a shared response. A nation’s ability to effectively prevent, detect, mitigate and respond to threats from ransomware will depend, in part, on the capacity, cooperation, and resilience of global partners, the private sector, civil society, and the general public.” As our own ERIC GELLER noted yesterday (for Pros!), the United States did not extend a summit invitation to Russia, where many of the most aggressive ransomware gangs are based. A senior administration official said that was because of “a host of reasons” and added that Washington and Moscow are already “having active discussions” about ransomware through a dedicated working group. | | | NEW AMERICAN MISSILE TEST: The United States has successfully completed a test of the long-range Precision Strike Missile, per our own LEE HUDSON (for Pros!). Lockheed Martin reported that the weapon flew farther than 499 kilometers — its longest flight to date and the first of that type of missile to exceed the distance that was prohibited under the now-defunct Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia. The launch today at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California was the fifth consecutive flight test for the missile. The Army will host a follow-on flight test next month at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico as part of the Army’s Project Convergence 21. The test missile was manufactured at Lockheed Martin’s facility in Camden, Ark. The Army awarded two contracts to Lockheed in September for early operational capability production and engineering and manufacturing development. The effort is part of a portfolio of projects that the Army says is its No. 1 modernization priority. The PrSM is scheduled to enter service in 2023. | | | LAWMAKERS WANT “HAVANA SYNDROME” POINT PERSON: The top members of the Senate Foreign Relations led on a letter urging SecState Blinken to appoint a senior-level official for “anomalous health incidents.” “We believe this threat deserves the highest level of attention from the State Department, and remain concerned that the State Department is not treating this crisis with the requisite senior-level attention that it requires,” wrote the bipartisan group of Senators, led by SFRC Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and ranking member JIM RISCH (R-Idaho). The lawmakers want Blinken to name “a senior-level official that reports directly to you. We ask that you take this step now to demonstrate that the State Department does take this matter seriously, and is coordinating an appropriate agency-level response.” Other signatories include Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.), TIM KAINE (D-Va.), BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii), CORY BOOKER (D-N.J.) and MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah). Two congressional officials told our own ANDREW DESIDERIO and ANTHONY ADRAGNA that several Americans serving at the U.S. embassy in Bogotà, Colombia, recently came down with symptoms consistent with the illness. The Wall Street Journal first reported the Colombia cases. 60+ HOUSE MEMBERS URGE DOWNGRADED BRAZIL TIES: A letter sent to President JOE BIDEN by over 60 members of Congress demand he downgrade U.S.-Brazil relations if JAIR BOLSONARO continues to question the integrity of his nation’s upcoming 2022 election . “We urge you to send a clear message to the Bolsonaro Administration that if President Bolsonaro’s attacks on the Brazilian election process continue, then U.S.-Brazil relations will be severely compromised,” the lawmakers led by Rep. HANK JOHNSON (D-Ga.) wrote. “[W]e respectfully call on you to at a minimum return U.S.-Brazil relations to the pre-Trump status quo, at least until a new leader, more aligned with democratic and human rights values, is elected in Brazil. This should include cancelling the [major non-NATO ally] designation, withdrawing the offer made to Brazil to become a NATO partner, and other forms of harmful cooperation established during the Trump-Bolsonaro period,” they continued. Joining Johnson are prominent Hill progressives, including all four “Squad” members along with Reps. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) and KAREN BASS (D-Calif.). The letter was sent today. | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | TSA TROUBLE: Two former top Trump administration officials are attacking the Biden administration for “expanding collective bargaining at the Transportation Security Administration and extending civil-service protections to airport security screeners.” Those moves, they argue, are especially shortsighted after the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan, where the Taliban’s new rule “will undoubtedly create a haven for terrorists who have historically targeted the U.S. aviation system.” In a Wall Street Journal op-ed , former acting Secretary of Homeland Security CHAD WOLF and former White House adviser on civil service reform JAMES SHERK contend that the current administration’s efforts will make it more difficult to remove poorly performing airport screeners. “While inefficient government is a problem anywhere, it becomes dangerous in national security agencies like the TSA. Ineffective national-security employees can endanger American lives,” they write. Wolf and Sherk add that the TSA “can’t afford these delays” caused by union arbitration, and that the agency “must respond swiftly to emerging threats, including by moving screeners to high-risk locations or changing screening procedures on a moment’s notice. Terrorists aren’t going to wait until the TSA finishes bargaining before they attack.” | | | –– MUJIB MASHAL will be the New York Times’ new South Asia bureau chief. The former Afghanistan correspondent will now lead a team out of New Delhi.
| | | — BERNAT ARMANGUE and LEE KEATH, The Associated Press: “Many Afghans pack their bags, hoping for the chance to leave” — CHOE SANG-HUN, The New York Times: “North Korea’s Mightiest Weapons? Nukes and Shirtless Men on Broken Glass.” — IAN BREMMER, Time: “Europe’s Youngest Democracies Are in Turmoil at the Worst Possible Time” | | | |   | | | | | | — Malley travels to the Middle East: The U.S. special envoy to Iran will visit the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia on his Oct. 15-21 trip. He will “meet and discuss with our Gulf partners a range of concerns with Iran, including its activities in the region and our attempt to negotiate a mutual return to compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” per the State Department. — The Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: “Africa Creative Industries Summit — with AKINWUMI ADESINA, NANA AKUFO-ADDO, ROCK CHRISTIAN KABORE, FELIX TSHISEKEDI, ABRAÃO ANÍBAL FERNANDES BARBOSA VICENTE and more” — The Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: “China’s youth: Increasing diversity amid persistent inequality — with CHENG LI, LI CHUNLING, MATTHEW CHITWOOD, STEPHANIE STUDER, MARTIN K. WHYTE and more” — The Middle East Institute, 9 a.m.: “ The Middle East Futures Forum — with SETH FRANTZMAN, MUHAMMAD KHURRAM KHAN, CHRIS KUBECKA, MARWA MAZIAD, P.W. SINGER and more” — The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 10:30 a.m.: “Soft Power & Cultural Diplomacy Study Group — with CARLA DIRLIKOV CANALES, JOHN FERGUSON, ERIKA MANOUSELIS, JOANNA SHERMAN and more” — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “From Princeton to Iran’s Evin Prison — with JOSH BLOCK and XIYUE WANG” — The Project 2049 Institute, 3 p.m.: “Former Prime Minister of Australia TONY ABBOTT: A Discussion on Innovative Policy Options for Strategic Competition with China — with SHIHOKO GOTO, JENNIFER K. HONG and RANDALL G. SCHRIVER” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who sometimes never backs out of our deals. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Sniper® Advanced Targeting Pod: Affordable, Reliable and Sustainable
Sniper ATP is the most widely fielded combat-tested targeting and ISR pod used today. Handling the most challenging air-to-air and air-to-ground missions, Sniper ATP has easy two-level maintenance with 24/7 support worldwide. Learn More | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
