Putin is delaying the National Security Strategy

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Thursday Feb 10,2022 09:05 pm

Feb 10, 2022

By Nahal Toosi, Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

With help from Daniel Lippman

Vladimir Putin attends a news conference.

Vladimir Putin's threat to Ukraine is scuttling the Biden administration’s hopes of soon releasing a National Security Strategy. | Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP Photo

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Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN ’s threat to Ukraine is scuttling the Biden administration’s hopes of soon releasing a National Security Strategy, NatSec Daily has learned.

The legally required document could change significantly depending on whether and how the Russian leader invades Ukraine. But overall, President JOE BIDEN and his aides are unlikely to change their core assertion that China, not Russia, is the greater long-term threat to America.

The law requires that presidents submit a National Security Strategy annually, but administrations often fail to meet that standard, and the Biden team did not deliver one last year despite many in the foreign policy world thinking that it would. Those expectations then changed to the first quarter of 2022. A senior official said today that the administration believes it will meet its “anticipated release date” but would not say what that date was.

A person familiar with the issue confirmed that Russia’s unclear plan for Ukraine is one factor affecting the timing. Practically speaking, the specifics of a Putin invasion of Ukraine — such as the form that it takes, not to mention how much ground it covers — could dramatically shape how the United States details and prioritizes the Russian threat in the strategy document. That’s especially true if Putin uses a hybrid model that includes cyber attacks.

The administration, then, could find itself in a holding pattern until Putin moves. “Awkward,” one senior U.S. administration official said.

The Atlantic Council’s BARRY PAVEL, a key contributor to the 2010 NSS while serving on the National Security Council, said delaying the document’s release is “a wise move.”

“This could be a major change to the security environment. Why would you put out a NSS when one of its core assumptions might be violated or shaken, which would cause a reassessment of the strategy?” he told NatSec Daily.

The uncertainty about the strategy’s release comes as the pen moves from one staffer to another. On Wednesday, SASHA BAKER , the document’s principal writer, was confirmed by the Senate as deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. With Baker heading to the Pentagon, REBECCA LISSNER will take over her duties with the title of acting senior director for strategic planning, NSC spokesperson EMILY HORNE confirmed. Lissner has been a director of strategic planning working with Baker for the past year.

Last March, the Biden administration released an interim strategy document — an unprecedented move — that laid out many of its foreign policy priorities. Russia was mentioned a few times, including as a “destabilizing” force. It was China, however, that earned more mentions and was described as “the only competitor potentially capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system.”

ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR , a former U.S. intelligence official with expertise on Russia and authoritarianism, hopes the Biden team has lost any illusions that it could simply brush the Kremlin aside or even just manage it without too much hassle.

She said Russia-related changes to Biden’s NSS shouldn’t be merely cosmetic because the Ukraine crisis is “an important turning point in Russian-U.S. relations.” That’s the case even if Putin doesn’t stage an all-out invasion, she said. If he does, it’s entirely possible there will be internal U.S. government competition over an allocation of resources for how to respond, she said.

At the moment, Putin seems unlikely to walk back his threats, Kendall-Taylor said, adding, “I think he’s ready to break things.”

The Inbox

RUSSIA’S NINE ROUTES INTO UKRAINE: Russia could take one or several of nine different routes into Ukraine during a full-scale invasion, per a U.S. military and intelligence assessment reported on by NBC News’ COURTNEY KUBE.

“The two most extensive invasion scenarios would involve a simultaneous attack from multiple sides — a maneuver known as a pincer movement or double envelopment,” she wrote.

Scenario 1: Russian forces take over Ukrainian territory east of the Dnieper River. “Russian tanks and mechanized units would cross the border from Russia and move toward Poltava and Kharkiv, encircling the cities as they move to the river. Ground forces would advance along three lines from Donbas, traveling east and south to Crimea, and taking the coastline along the Sea of Azov. Russian military helicopters would simultaneously support an air assault from Crimea,” per Kube.

At the same time, there would be an amphibious assault to control the Black Sea coast while moving troops toward Moldova to secure a land bridge to the Sea.

Scenario 2: The more aggressive option, per Kube, “adds two attack routes from the north to encircle Kyiv — and includes artillery fire, electronic warfare and possible ground troops moving south from Belarus toward Zhytomer and east into Kyiv.” The good roads in that northern area of Ukraine make it possible for Russian tanks to reach the capital in two days.

“Both attacks would open with a mammoth array of artillery strikes, medium-range ballistic missiles and bomber attacks — likely at night — that would target ammunition depots, radar stations, aircraft and air defense systems, and other critical Ukrainian military sites,” Kube reported, noting the assessment says roughly 50,000 civilians would be killed or injured in the fighting.

PLEAS FOR EVACS COMPLICATED KABUL MISSION: Rear Adm. PETER VASELY, who led the military’s evacuation mission in Kabul last August, said that constant appeals for specific rescues complicated the operation.

It all proved a “distraction” that “created competition for already stressed resources,” Vasely told Army investigators in a report The Washington Post’s DAN LAMOTHE obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request.

“Thousands of phone calls, text messages and emails flooded the U.S. operations center at Kabul’s airport throughout the evacuation, prompting Vasely, a Navy SEAL, to divert personnel and establish a ‘coordination cell’ responsible for processing the overwhelming volume of communication from Washington and beyond, he told investigators. Vasely said that social media exacerbated the problem, broadening the ’aperture of ambition’ to the point that people even campaigned for the military to rescue specific dogs,” Lamothe wrote.

“[Y]ou had everyone from the White House down with a new flavor of the day for prioritization,” Vasely told investigators.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– FLAG OFFICERS WANT CASTNER RANGE DESIGNATED A NATIONAL MONUMENT: Eight retired generals and flag officers wrote to Biden and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, among others, requesting that Castner Range be designated a national monument via the Antiquities Act.

Safeguarding that land, part of Fort Bliss in western Texas, “would ensure military and cultural heritage sites, endangered species, scientific and environmental wonders, and an awe-inspiring landscape, are permanently protected. Moreover, a National Monument designation of Castner Range by President Biden would benefit marginalized communities, specifically indigenous and Latino peoples,” they wrote in the letter seen first by NatSec Daily. “The designation of Castner Range as a National Monument is widely supported among El Paso elected officials, community leaders, conservation groups, and military veterans like us.”

The former officers include STEVEN ANDERSON, RICARDO APONTE, STEPHEN CHENEY, PAUL EATON, LEIF HENDRICKSON, MIKE MATHIS, GALE POLLOCK and MIKE SMITH.

The Trump administration, almost surely unwittingly, helped protect Castner Range by signing the NDAA in 2017 which featured a provision barring the construction of new roads or buildings on the land. But advocates say a presidential declaration would protect Castner Range’s 7,081 acres well into the future.

“Ensuring we permanently protect the irreplaceable landscape, history, and cultural sites at Castner Range for future generations is a civic and patriotic undertaking,” Eaton told NatSec Daily over email. “I look forward to working alongside my fellow veterans and military family members, community partners, and our Commander in Chief to see Castner Range designated as a national monument.”

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Flashpoints

RUSSIA-BELARUS MILITARY EXERCISE BEGINS: Russia and Belarus’ massive “United Resolve” military exercise has begun just off the borders of Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania, The Wall Street Journal’s EVAN GERSHKOVICH reported — raising fears that it could serve as a prelude to an invasion.

Russia and Belarus conduct joint drills routinely, but the context is different around this one as the Kremlin has more than 100,000 troops stationed around Ukraine and NATO’s east. Moscow insists its forces will leave Belarus — and not roll toward Kyiv — once the exercise ends on Feb. 20.

“But the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization expect the drills to involve 30,000 troops, making them the largest military exercises since the Cold War,” Gershkovich wrote. “[A]ccording to satellite imagery and open-source data, Moscow has deployed as part of the drills SU-25 and SU-35 jet fighters, electronic jamming systems, nuclear-capable Iskander missile systems and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems to Belarus.

That has some analysts worried that this is no ordinary drill. “This is clearly more than a readiness exercise,” the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s ROB LEE commented for the story. “At minimum it is coercive — or it is part of preparations for an invasion.”

Asked about the exercises on MSNBC, Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN said, “We are quite concerned about the build-up and the further escalation by Russia surrounding Ukraine, as you say, starting the exercises in Belarus right next door to Ukraine. ... This is certainly, in our view, an escalation, not a deescalation.”

Keystrokes

PRE-INVASION SANCTIONS FOR RUSSIAN CYBERATTACKS: Leaders of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee are considering threatening sanctions against Russia for a potential cyberattack against Ukraine, even if a hacking operation by Moscow comes before an actual invasion, per our own MAGGIE MILLER.

Sanctions for Russian cyberattacks are “one of the items that is under consideration,” said Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), adding that lawmakers are even weighing sanctions for Russian cyberattacks already undertaken against Ukraine. Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the panel’s top Republican, said only that “there have been such conversations.”

The two committee leaders have been working on a compromise sanctions package that will satisfy both Republicans, who are pushing for sanctions to be imposed ahead of a Russian invasion, as well as Democrats, who support leveling sanctions after Russian troops cross the Ukrainian border. But cyberattacks are an area where many agree that early action is needed.

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

The Complex

DENMARK WANTS DEFENSE COOPERATION PACT WITH U.S.: Danish Prime Minister METTE FREDERIKSEN announced her country and the U.S. would begin negotiations for a defense cooperation agreement.

The statement received a warm welcome in Washington. “When concluded, this agreement will allow our countries to deepen our close security partnership, further strengthen cooperation in NATO operations, and together, contribute to continued growth in Transatlantic security,” State Department spokesperson NED PRICE said in a statement.

Defense cooperation agreements have become increasingly popular among allies, formalizing ties in ways that don’t necessarily lead to basing deals.

“These pacts facilitate U.S. military operations and overseas deployments. It’s fundamentally about formalizing and standardizing procedures to provide a more transparent, predictable, and robust overarching framework for mutually agreed upon activities conducted within a partner country rather than having to negotiate over and over every time DoD needs to deploy for a joint exercise or any other mutually agreed upon activity. Such agreements increase the speed at which U.S. forces can, for example, reinforce NATO Allies during a contingency,” a State Department spokesperson told us.

This comes just one day after Slovakia’s Parliament approved a defense treaty with the U.S., allowing American troops to use two local air bases for 10 years. In return, Slovakia will receive $100 million to modernize the installations. Slovak President ZUZANA ČAPUTOVÁ ratified the deal.

On the Hill

HAWLEY BLOCKS 3 DOD NOMS: Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) blocked the confirmation of three Pentagon nominees over the Afghanistan withdrawal, Defense News’ JOE GOULD reported.

Among the nominees was CELESTE WALLANDER, a Russia expert tapped to be the assistant secretary of Defense for international security affairs. Hawley said he will keep blocking the confirmations until there are more hearings about last year’s botched evacuation from Kabul, though he initially demanded that top administration officials resign.

Hawley’s move drew the ire of Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) who said the Missouri lawmaker was “making us less secure.”

AID TO AFGHANISTAN A ‘MORAL HAZARD’: Sending much-needed aid to Afghanistan is a “moral hazard” because inevitably some of those funds go to the Taliban, Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) said Wednesday during a congressional hearing.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Middle East panel, which Murphy leads, held a hearing on Afghanistan’s dire humanitarian situation in which millions are in need of food and shelter to survive a harsh winter. The lawmaker last month applauded the Biden administration for sending $308 million in assistance to Afghanistan, though he recognized Wednesday that not all of that money will go to those expecting it.

"There is frankly moral hazard in putting billions into Afghanistan right now," Murphy said at the hearing. "We can do our best to route it around the Taliban, but there is no doubt that the partial effect of aid is to save the Taliban from itself. That is deeply distasteful."

Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) offered a similar message: "We of course must continue to be vigilant in our efforts to deny the Taliban any resources — financial or otherwise — they can use to conduct further acts of terror," he said. "The worst-case scenario involved would be if humanitarian aid were diverted from legitimate recipients towards the Taliban and [their] partners and terror."

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– 13 FORMER COMBATANT COMMANDERS WANT MORE PANDEMIC RESOURCES: Thirteen former combatant commanders who oversaw five geographic regions wrote a letter to top lawmakers to authorize more money for the nation’s pandemic response worldwide.

“[I]t is clear that vaccination rates remain too low in developing countries if we are going to arrest the pandemic and its aftershocks around the world,” wrote the retired four-stars including DAVID PETRAEUS, JOSEPH VOTEL and JAMES STAVRIDIS . “Failure to address the continued global spread of COVID-19 directly impacts the health and security of Americans. That is why it is imperative that our nation matches the scale of this threat with additional targeted resources for the global COVID-19 response.”

The letter, organized by the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition and obtained exclusively by NatSec Daily, continued: “We urge you to prioritize new emergency resources for the global COVID-19 response, including for global vaccination efforts and to mitigate the pandemic’s destabilizing impacts around the world in final negotiations on FY22 spending levels,” they continued.

The U.S. is currently the world’s largest donor of vaccines, but the former flag officers fear global instability exacerbated by the pandemic is being leveraged by America’s adversaries, making the world “less friendly to our national interests.”

Broadsides

TRUSS BUT VERIFY: LIZ TRUSS became the first British foreign secretary to visit Russia in more than four years — and, based on what transpired, it may be longer than that before another returns.

Truss held a frosty meeting today with her counterpart SERGEY LAVROV, during which the Russian foreign minister said his regime had no intention of invading Ukraine, but her skepticism shone through during a joint news conference. “I can’t see any other reason for having 100,000 troops stationed on the Ukrainian border apart from to threaten Ukraine, and if Russia is serious about diplomacy they need to move those troops and desist from the threats,” Truss said.

Lavrov, clearly annoyed, insulted the Brit: Talking to Truss was “like speaking to a deaf person who listens but does not hear,” he said.

The Russian diplomat was angry not only because of Truss' stance, but also because he said she came unprepared to the important meeting. Per Kommersant’s ELENA CHERNENKO, Lavrov at one point asked if the U.K. recognized Russia’s sovereignty over the Rostov and Voronezh oblasts, both Russian territories that border Ukraine.

Truss said the U.K. “never” would, before the ambassador told her both of those areas aren’t part of Ukraine.

Transitions

— As mentioned earlier, Sasha Baker has been confirmed by the Senate to serve as deputy undersecretary of Defense for policy; DOUG BUSH has been confirmed to serve as assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology; and SEAN COFFEY has been confirmed to serve as Navy general counsel. Baker most recently served as a special assistant to the president and senior director for strategic planning at the National Security Council. Bush most recently served as the Army’s acquisition chief in an acting capacity. Coffey most recently served as the chair of complex litigation at Kramer Levin Naftalis & Frankel LLP.

— SORIN ADAM MATEI is joining the Center for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue as a senior research fellow. He is the associate dean of research and graduate education in the College of Liberal Arts at Purdue University.

— MATT MURRAY will be the new U.S. senior official for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. He most recently led the State Department’s Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs as a senior bureau official following an assignment as deputy assistant secretary of State for trade policy and negotiations.

— SCOTT NATHAN has been confirmed by the Senate to serve as chief executive officer at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. He most recently served as a senior adviser to the White House Office of Presidential Personnel after having worked on the Biden-Harris presidential transition’s appointments team.

— DILAWAR SYED is reportedly under consideration by the White House to serve as special representative for commercial and business affairs at the State Department. He was nominated in March to serve as deputy administrator of the Small Business Administration, but Senate Republicans have stalled his nomination.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

What to Read

— EMILY DE LA BRUYÈRE and NATHAN PICARSIC, The Foundation for Defense of Democracies: “Elemental Strategy: Countering the Chinese Communist Party’s Efforts to Dominate the Rare Earth Industry”

— CHRISTOPHER MATHIAS and ALI WINSTON, HuffPost: “Inside Patriot Front: The Masked White Supremacists On A Nationwide Hate Crime Spree”

— DANIEL LIPPMAN, POLITICO: “ Top D.C. Lobbying Firm Reps Company Alleged by Former Employees to Have Paid off Taliban”

Tomorrow Today

— The United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.: “Conflict and Violent Extremism in Southeast Asia: Examining Trends in Malaysia and the Philippines — with JOSEPH FRANCO, BRIAN HARDING, SAMUEL HENKIN, AMINA RASUL-BERNARDO and ALASTAIR REED”

— The Wilson Center’s Asia Program, 9 a.m.: “How to Avert an Economic Collapse in Afghanistan — with KHISROW FAZLI, JULIA FRIEDLANDER, KHALID PAYENDA and KHALIL SEDIQ”

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: “ Turkey’s Role in the Ukraine Crisis — with MATTHEW BRYZA, SVANTE CORNELL, MICHAEL DORAN and SINAN ULGEN”

— The Organization of Iranian American Communities, 11 a.m.: “Bipartisan Congressional Briefing on Iran”

— The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 12 p.m.: “The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us about Great-Power Rivalry Today — with HAL BRANDS”

— The Atlantic Council, 12:30 p.m.: “Fighting to Survive: The Human Toll of the Kremlin’s Ukraine War — with MICHAEL BOCIURKIW, MELINDA HARING, HRYHORIY NEMYRIA and MARIA TOMAK”

— The George Washington University’s Sigur Center for Asian Studies, 12:30 p.m.: “Southeast Asia and the Future of the Rules-Based (Liberal) Order — with BENJAMIN HO and DAVID SHAMBAUGH”

— New York University’s Brademas Center, 12:30 p.m.: “What’s at Stake in Ukraine? — with ZVI BEN-DOR BENITE, STEFANOS GEROULANOS, MASHA GESSEN, VOLODYMYR ISHCHENKO, SOPHIE LAMBROSCHINI and ADAM TOOZE”

— The American Security Project, 1 p.m.: “Rapid Response Briefing: On the Brink of War in Ukraine — with VIVIAN SALAMA”

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