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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
National security adviser Jake Sullivan speaks during the the daily White House press briefing on February 11, 2022 in Washington, D.C. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | With help from Connor O’Brien Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint The Pentagon seeks a new way to arm the Ukrainians should a larger war with Russia break out. Certain allies — namely Germany — still need “coaxing” when it comes to a sanctions response. The U.S. might provide Ukraine $1 billion in a sovereign loan guarantee. And as of this morning, the U.S. had 22 total personnel at the evacuated embassy in Kyiv. That’s what national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told House members in a private call today. The top aide to President JOE BIDEN spent the day updating lawmakers from the House and Senate about the Ukraine-Russia standoff and the West’s response to it. His 9:15 am unclassified call with top House members, which featured Speaker of the House NANCY PELOSI and the Democratic chairs of national security committees, among others, was mostly a rehash of the administration’s public talking points — except for four of his comments, per multiple people familiar with the call. The first was that Sullivan said Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN is looking to provide Ukrainians with military aid via ground delivery — not through air delivery — to assist the resistance after a Russian invasion. Asked for more details by lawmakers, Sullivan answered he’d be willing to discuss the matter in a classified setting instead of over an unsecure phone line. The second came after House Foreign Relations Chair GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) asked if certain allies, specifically Germany and Poland, still needed some persuading when it came to sanctions. “They need constant coaxing — especially Germany,” Sullivan replied, though he insisted the administration expects a strong multilateral response. Washington and Berlin haven’t been aligned in their public messaging on how to punish Russia, especially regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, though officials in both capitals maintain they will act in unison. The third is Sullivan said the administration is mulling offering Ukraine a $1 billion in sovereign loan guarantees to calm any economic concerns. And fourth, Sullivan stated the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv currently has a total of 22 personnel, down from around 180 in December. Hours later, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN announced that the embassy was closing and temorarily relocating to Lviv, where a small number of staffers will perform emergency consular work. The National Security Council declined to comment, while a State Department spokesperson said “As part of our operational security protocols … we are not providing details about embassy staffing.” Still, Sullivan’s behind-the-scenes remarks provide a clearer look into the administration’s planning and thinking two days before U.S. intelligence suggests Russia will begin its invasion. Put together, the administration is weighing a new set of new military and economic options while a multilateral response to Russia’s aggression may still not be 100 percent firmed up. The question is, as always, will it be enough? “If we're going to prevent a war, Putin has to get something out of this. He has to have some sort of diplomatic face-saving mechanism to back down, House Armed Services Chair ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), who was on the call, told MSNBC hours afterward. Sullivan began his classified briefing with senators at 3:30 pm.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | RUSSIA’S FM SAYS TALKS ‘FAR FROM EXHAUSTED’: In what looked like a highly choreographed meeting between Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN and Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV, the two leaders seemingly kept the door open to diplomacy and shut to war — at least for now. Referencing ongoing negotiations with NATO and European nations, Lavrov said “I believe that our possibilities are far from exhausted,” adding, “I would propose continuing and intensifying them.” “I have already said more than once that we warn against endless conversations on issues that need to be resolved today, but still, probably, being the head of the Foreign Ministry, I must say that there is always a chance,” the top diplomat continued. “Good,” Putin solemnly replied. That’s potentially a signal that Putin may not launch an enhanced invasion of Ukraine this week, as U.S. intelligence suggests. Or it could be a head feint. Either way, German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ arrives in Moscow Tuesday after first visiting Kyiv today. SCHOLZ, ZELENSKYY PLAY DOWN UKRAINE NATO MEMBERSHIP: Speaking of Scholz’s Kyiv trip, both he and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY tamped down any expectations that Ukraine would soon join NATO — a possibility that is a major irritant in Moscow. “The question of [Ukrainian] membership in alliances is practically not on the agenda,” Scholz said at a news conference following a two-hour meeting with his counterpart. “And that is why it is strange to observe that the Russian government is making something that is practically not on the agenda the subject of major political problems,” he continued, adding “That is the great challenge that we actually face: That something that is not even on the agenda is being made an issue.” Zelenskyy added that NATO membership was a remote “dream” but did say, “For us, NATO membership is not the absolute goal. That’s not a question that comes from us.” The Kremlin says it wants a guarantee that Ukraine will never join the alliance and that NATO’s expansion eastward will soon cease. Some argue that giving Russia what it wants might be enough to get Putin to pull back his 130,000 troops from Ukraine’s border. Maybe, maybe not. But Scholz might have a little more credibility with Putin ahead of their encounter tomorrow. J STREET’S PRO-JCPOA PUSH: J Street, the left-leaning pro-Israel group, is preparing for a messy political fight to defend America’s return to the Iran nuclear deal, as is increasingly expected in the coming weeks. J Street engaged in a similar struggle ahead of the 2015 pact to back the Obama administration’s move, spending $5 to $6 million to make its points while fending off attacks from well-heeled rivals. In an interview with NatSec Daily, J Street President JEREMY BEN-AMI said he expects another “multimillion-dollar fight” this time around. “We’re ready to go,” he told us, saying he expects many similarities between 2015 and now. “We’ve been down this road before.” In some ways Ben-Ami expects a more receptive audience. Iran’s nuclear program was mainly contained before former President DONALD TRUMP withdrew the U.S. from the accord. Now, Iran is just weeks away from having the materials it needs to build a nuclear bomb. “We have real-world experience now,” Ben-Ami said. J Street won’t try to change minds, namely because Republicans and a few Democrats are immovable on the Iran deal. Instead, the group will aim to solidify ranks by arming those in favor of the pact with the talking points and information they need to defend the deal. Later this week, the group plans to unveil a go-to website. SULLIVAN DEFENDS RELEASE OF RUSSIA INTEL: Jake Sullivan defended a remarkable practice by this administration during the Ukraine crisis: steadily reading out intelligence to put Russia on notice. The biggest claim to date is that Russia plans to produce a false-flag video as a pretext to launch a larger invasion. CNN’s JAKE TAPPER asked Sullivan Sunday to reassure some Americans who may be skeptical of an administration making intelligence claims without presenting evidence. Sullivan made three points. First, “we're not putting forward this intelligence to start a war. … We are putting forward this intelligence to stop a war.” Second, “this is consistent with the Russian playbook. We have seen them do this before many times.” Third, Sullivan said Russian media “are laying the groundwork for a potential pretext by raising the possibility of attacks by Ukrainian forces on either Russians themselves or Russia's proxy forces in the Donbass.” Top U.S. officials previously responded to media queries about the intelligence with incredulous disdain, setting up a “with us or against us” false dichotomy. Not everyone agrees that this information war with the Kremlin is a wise decision, our colleague NAHAL TOOSI wrote.
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The F-35 team is working together across government and industry for greater affordability. Lockheed Martin invested $400 million, driving a 44 percent reduction in our share of cost per flight hour. Another 40 percent reduction is forecasted. Learn more. | | | IT’S MONDAY. THANKS FOR BEING OUR NEWSLETTER VALENTINE: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
| | | UKRAINIAN CITIZENS PREP FOR A FIGHT: Should more Russian forces invade Ukraine, they’ll be met with stiff resistance from a professional military — and armed citizens. “I understood that if, God forbid, something began, I wouldn’t be able to sit with my arms folded,” SERHIY VELICHANSKY, a Kyiv native who works with Ukrainian veterans processing trauma from fighting Russians since 2014, told POLITICO’s IGOR KOSSOV. “At 50, however, Velichansky is not a prime candidate for frontline duty. Instead, he is one of many Ukrainian civilians flocking to join a new military branch: the Territorial Defense Force,” Kossov wrote. “The idea is to harness well-trained civilian reservists around the country, led by professional soldiers, to help combat Russia’s 21st-century aggression — ranging from direct military attacks to clandestine missions to sow cultural discord, sabotage infrastructure and take over local governments.” “So while Ukraine’s armed forces must face the possibility of a more traditional war … an organized Territorial Defense can help them also respond to more clandestine and diffuse assaults, dubbed ‘hybrid warfare’ in modern military parlance,” he continued. Background: On January 1, Ukraine passed a law making its Territorial Defense Force a separate military branch. Previously, the force — conceived in the early 2000s and first put together in 2014 — answered to the ground forces command and consisted of retired military members divided into units resembling volunteer battalions. Their job was simply to defend the rear. But now, with the expectation that Russia may be looking to infiltrate cities in parallel with its massive troop build-up along the border, Ukraine wanted to codify its civilian force, with the goal of having 10,000 ready to go by March.
| | | IRS MAKES STAND AGAINST RANSOMWARE: The Internal Revenue Service is emerging as a formidable resource within the U.S. government for thwarting Russian hackers, reports our own SAM SABIN (for Pros!). The agency’s ability to trace dark money “has made it a crucial partner to other federal agencies investigating ransomware gangs.” As Sabin explains, profit motives “are a powerful incentive for criminal hackers who roam the internet locking up victims’ data and demanding a ransom for releasing it .… But those flows of dirty money also place the gangs squarely in the IRS’ bailiwick.” The IRS also has been growing its capabilities for fighting ransomware, expanding its cybercrime unit from about five agents in 2015 to nearly 130 personnel today. In addition, a forthcoming center in Northern Virginia will bring together IRS cybercrime agents with law enforcement agents in other bureaus focused on cryptocurrency investigations.
| | | SINGAPORE AIR SHOW: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) highlighted the excitement at one of the first in-person air shows in years. Some 100 U.S. companies will take up 30 percent of the exhibit floor at the annual Singapore Airshow this week. Not everything’s back to normal, though: Expect 13,000 attendees, compared with 30,000 two years ago, while the number of exhibitors has dropped from 900 to 600 this year, organizers said on Sunday. The majority of the big five U.S. defense companies — including Boeing, General Dynamics and Raytheon Technologies — will be shopping their commercial wares, officials tell our own LEE HUDSON. Lockheed Martin plans to showcase a variety of military aircraft, including the F-16 and F-35 fighters; C-130J transport; and CH-53K, UH-60 and MH-60 helicopters. The venue will also mark the first time U.S. military F-35A and F-35B models will be side by side in Southeast Asia. Attendees will reportedly get a peek at a number of new military offerings, including India’s Tejas fighter jet, Israel’s unmanned hybrid helicopter and a mock-up of Turkey’s TF-X fighter.
| | | RUBIO: ‘WE CANNOT ALLOW THIS TO ESCALATE’: Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, filmed a 140-second video Monday nominally about explaining why the Ukraine crisis matters, but what served mainly as a warning about the threat of escalation between the U.S. and Russia. Countries like China and Russia want to establish a “new world order” whereby “big, powerful countries like them get to dominate their region” while smaller countries must abide, Rubio said. “We need to respond to that,” Rubio said about Putin’s suspected intentions. “If there isn’t real consequences … then that means admitting that this is ok, and this is the world we’re going to live in.” Rubio explicitly ruled out a military option, saying “we are not, and should not, send American soldiers to Ukraine to fight Russia in a war.” But he did say that an invasion will lead to “crippling sanctions” on Russia’s economy, with Putin likely responding with cyberattacks on U.S. banks. America would respond to that provocation, as well, and on and on it goes. Rubio’s worry is that a tit-for-tat could lead two nuclear powers to the brink of war: “We cannot allow this to escalate and become something far more dangerous and catastrophic.”
| | | |   | | | | | | GRAHAM: PUTIN ‘SHOULD BE PUNISHED NOW’: Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) had some tough words for the administration Sunday about its Russia strategy, saying that he’d prefer to see “action” instead of constant warnings about the imminent nature of an invasion. “I don't want to ring an alarm bell as much as take action. They're telling us the invasion is imminent. But they're not telling Putin with clarity what happens if you invade,” he said on ABC News’ “This Week.” “He should be punished now. What I can't get over is that the world is allowing him to do all this without consequence. The guy took the Crimea in 2014. He's got 100,000 troops amassed on the Ukrainian border and he's paying no price at all. So I'd like to hit him now for the provocation and have sanctions spelled out very clearly, what happens to the ruble and his oil and gas economy. I think that's what's missing,” Graham continued. “We're talking way too much and we're doing too little.” Graham is one of eight senators working on a Russian sanctions bill, but the sticking point remains that Republicans want to hit Russia with sanctions now while Democrats think the threat of penalties serves as a better deterrent.
| | | — RACHEL ELLEHUUS has joined the U.S. mission to NATO as a defense adviser and defense secretary’s representative in Europe. — JOSH SHIFRINSON is joining the University of Maryland as an associate professor of international policy. The restraint-minded academic and commentator was previously at Boston University.
| | | — YURAS KARMANAU, The Associated Press: “Ukraine President’s Ratings Fall as Crisis With Russia Brews” — AMY WEBB, The Atlantic: “ The Next Pandemic Could Start With a Terrorist Attack” — MICHELLE YE HEE LEE, The Washington Post: “With North Korea Talks Stalled, Some Wonder: What if We Tried Something Different?”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Zeroed in on affordability.
Lockheed Martin ingenuity is fully invested in reducing acquisition and life cycle costs to affordably deliver unrivaled capability. Learn more. | | | | | | — The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 5:30 a.m.: “The Military Balance — with DOUGLAS BARRIE, BEN BARRY, HENRY BOYD , NICK CHILDS, JOHN CHIPMAN, BASTIAN GIEGERICH, JAMES HACKETT, FENELLA MCGERTY and MEIA NOUWENS” — The Brussels Regional Media Hub, 8:30 a.m.: “Press Briefing on NATO Defense Ministerial — with JULIANNE SMITH” — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with PETER BESHAR, CHRISTOPHER LOWMAN, LESTER MARTINEZ-LOPEZ and ROBERT STORCH” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: “ Atomic Steppe: How Kazakhstan Gave Up the Bomb — with WILLIAM COURTNEY, TOGZHAN KASSENOVA and GEORGE PERKOVICH” — The Center for European Policy Analysis, 10 a.m.: “ Responding to Russian Cyber Operations — with TOOMAS HENDRIK ILVES, CHRIS KREBS, MAGGIE MILLER, NICOLE PERLROTH and ALINA POLYAKOVA” — The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments: 10 a.m.: “War Transformed: The Future of 21st Century Great Power Competition and Conflict — with ERIC EDELMAN, THOMAS MAHNKEN and MICK RYAN” — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: “War in Yemen: Implications for Regional and U.S. Security — with FATIMA ABO ALASRAR, BRIAN HOOK and KATHERINE ZIMMERMAN” — The United States Institute of Peace, 10:30 a.m.: “ U.S. Engagement with Afghanistan After Six Months of Taliban Rule — with THOMAS WEST” — The Association of the United States Army, 12 p.m.: “Warrant Officer Talent Management — with TERESA DOMEIER, RICK KNOWLTON, PATRICK NELLIGAN and PHYLLIS WILSON” — The Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.: “The Afghan Refugee Crisis: How to Resurrect the Global Refugee Resettlement Coalition — with RATNA OMIDVAR and RORY STEWART” — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “The Centenary of Herman Kahn: Assessing His Intellectual Legacy — with WILLIAM SCHNEIDER and KENNETH WEINSTEIN” — The Center for a New American Security, 1 p.m.: “Strategic Readiness: Meeting the Challenges of Today and Tomorrow — with SHAWN SKELLY and BECCA WASSER” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: “War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict — with MICK RYAN” — The Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 2 p.m.: “Aerospace Nation: Secretary of the Air Force FRANK KENDALL” — House Homeland Security Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Concealed Carry-Ons: Confronting the Surge in Firearms at TSA Checkpoints — with BALRAM BHEODARI, RALPH CUTIÉ, GREG REGAN and JASON D. WALLIS” — Senate Intelligence Committee, 2:30 p.m.: “Closed Briefing: Intelligence Matters” — The Wilson Center, 2 p.m.: “Russia and Ukraine on the Brink — with MICHELE FLOURNOY”
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