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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | With help from Lee Hudson, Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman
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White House press secretary Jen Psaki and Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.). | Patrick Semansky/AP Photos; Michael Reynolds-Pool/Getty Images | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint There seems to be some confusion among Democrats over whether the U.S. is sharing targeting intelligence with Ukrainian forces to fight back against Russia. On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” Thursday, Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) — chair of the House Armed Services Committee — said “we are providing some intelligence” to Ukraine, but we’re “not providing the kind of real-time targeting” the U.S. military has used in past conflicts. In other words, America is helping Kyiv out, even openly providing it with lethal weapons, but not pointing at targets for Ukraine to destroy. Hours later, our colleague EUGENE DANIELS pressed White House press secretary JEN PSAKI about Smith’s comments. Psaki all but implied that the HASC chief, who said he’s been briefed directly by military leaders, got it wrong. “We’ve continued and consistently shared a significant amount of detailed, timely intelligence on Russia’s plans and activities with the Ukrainian government to help Ukrainians defend themselves. This includes information that should help them inform and develop their military response to Russia’s invasion. That’s what’s happening, or has been happening,” she said, calling unspecified reports about U.S.-Ukraine intelligence sharing “false.” Psaki obviously can’t divulge confidential information, and whether the U.S. is actively helping Ukrainians kill Russians rises to that level. But she didn’t deny that the U.S. was providing intelligence to the Ukrainians that could help them strike invading Russian targets. In fact, she strongly hinted the U.S. was providing such intelligence, although it still remains unclear. Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, replied to NatSec Daily’s tweet about the Daniels-Psaki exchange by calling the press secretary’s response “truthy.” “It does not capture the full reality,” he continued on Twitter. “A work in progress.” We went back to Smith’s office to see if he had any update to his comment: "The intelligence provided to the Ukrainians is rapid, and can be used to defend their country. Chairman Smith has repeatedly commended the administration for its ability to execute these efforts swiftly and effectively without further escalating the conflict," said CALEB RANDALL-BODMAN, spokesperson for Smith. It’s an interesting development, especially since President JOE BIDEN and his team want to arm Ukraine with top-of-the-line weapons without seeming like a party to the war. Openly admitting the U.S. is handing over targeting intelligence would cross that threshold. “That steps over the line to marking us participating in the war,” Smith said on MSNBC. Keeping sky-high tensions from going any higher is paramount, especially since there are no discernible off-ramps yet. The U.S. and Russia, at least, have set up a deconfliction line between U.S. European Command and the Russian Ministry of Defense to avoid any miscalculations. The U.S. and fellow NATO members are taking great pains not to give Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN a pretext for further invasion of Ukraine. He could of course invent one out of whole cloth — just like he did to launch the war in the first place — but nobody wants to provide him with even the tiniest excuse. Meanwhile, over the last few days, the U.S. has sent hundreds of Stinger missiles to Ukraine , including 200 on Monday. No U.S. official will confirm those details publicly except to say that the U.S. will further flow billions in security assistance into Ukraine.
| | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Russia has seen 9,000 troops killed or injured since the start of the war and has lost 30 warplanes, 31 helicopters and 217 tanks ( Ukraine Ministry of Defense) — Russia has sent in 90 percent of pre-staged troops around Ukraine into the country and launched 480 missiles (senior U.S. defense official) — Russia has launched “several hundred” Iskander and Kaliber-type ground and sea-based missiles into cities and villages throughout Ukraine, as well as cluster and vacuum bombs in Kharkiv and Okhtyrka (Ukrainian Parliament) — Russia still has “the vast, vast majority of their total combat power” in and outside of Ukraine (senior U.S. defense official) — Since the start of the war, 21 Ukrainian children have died and 55 have been injured (Ukrainian Parliament) — Russia’s forces aim to block access to Kyiv from the north and northwest ( General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) Global Response: — Arctic Council: Seven members of the Arctic Council — Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the U.S. — “are temporarily pausing participation in all meetings of the Council and its subsidiary bodies.” (U.S. Department of State)
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Janes map of Russian positions as of 9 a.m. on March 3. | Courtesy of Janes | ‘WHAT ARE YOU AFRAID OF?’: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY invited Putin to meet and discuss a way to end this war. “Good Lord, what do you want? Leave our land. If you don't want to leave now, sit down with me at the negotiating table. But not from 30 meters away,” he said during a quickly organized news conference on Thursday. “Sit down with me and talk. What are you afraid of? We’re no threat to anyone.” A visibly tired Zelenskyy made the request while Russian and Ukrainian officials were meeting for the second time since the war started. Previously, the Ukrainian leader said negotiations could only proceed if Russia stopped bombing his country, which hasn’t happened. After the talks ended, a Ukrainian official involved in the talks said “ the results Ukraine needs are not yet achieved.” However, it does appear there was an agreement over providing “humanitarian corridors” to evacuate those in need and have food and medicine delivered. Putin, meanwhile, doesn’t seem like he’s in any mood to talk , even if he falsely portrays (or even believes) that Russia’s opening gambit has gone smoothly. “The special operation in Ukraine is going according to plan and in full compliance with the timetable. All tasks set during the special operation in Ukraine are being accomplished successfully,” he told his Security Council today. WHITE HOUSE WANTS $10B FOR UKRAINE: The White House has asked Congress to authorize $10 billion in assistance to Ukraine, with about half of the money going to the Defense Department, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and JENNIFER SCHOLTES reported. That figure is part of a $32.5 billion pandemic and “critical assistance” package request by the Biden administration. “The Biden administration revamped its emergency funding request Thursday morning, asking Congress for almost $33 billion, including $10 billion to respond to the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and $22.5 billion to address the pandemic. Lawmakers are expected to tack the money onto a $1.5 trillion package to fund the government into the fall, as they scramble to close out the spending bill before next week's deadline,” they wrote. Here’s the breakdown (with some additional details from Defense News’ JOE GOULD):
- $1.8 billion for troops in support of U.S. European Command and the NATO Response Force
- $1.25 billion for intelligence, cybersecurity and classified programs
- $1.35 billion for weapons to Ukraine, military training and other assistance
- $5 billion for State Department-led humanitarian efforts
- $1.2 billion in presidential authority to draw from existing U.S. military stocks
- $200 million for Commerce, Treasury and Justice to enforce sanctions and analyze the supply chain
UKRAINE WAR DELAYS NDS: The Pentagon will delay the release of the National Defense Strategy following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, our own O’Brien, PAUL McLEARY and LEE HUDSON reported. China will remain the top national security threat, but Russia earned itself a larger mention in the document. “They’re rewriting it to include more of a flavor of Russia and the rest of the world as a result of what’s happening in Ukraine,” said MARK CANCIAN , a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who has consulted with the Defense Department on the strategy. “The previous version had been very China-centric, and they’re rewriting it to be a little more global, while still seeing China as the pacing challenge.” It’s another example of an administration hoping to pivot to China only to have other security challenges interfere with the strategic shift. The NDS is still expected for release before Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN’s posture hearings in the spring. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
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The Sikorsky-Boeing DEFIANT X™ aircraft delivers JADO capability in a size similar to the BLACK HAWK. This means it can operate in the same spaces, both on the battlefield and at the airfield. Learn more. | | | | | | ‘THERE IS NO OFF-RAMP’: On Monday, NatSec Daily reported how no one we spoke with in the U.S. or Europe could detail the plan to deescalate the war , assuming there was even an opening with Putin to do so. Smith, the HASC chair, asked the same question of U.S. officials and came to the same conclusion — there is no plan. "I've asked that question to a lot of leaders, and at the end of the day, the answer comes down to simply: Right now there is no off-ramp,” he said on MSNBC this morning. ‘WORST IS YET TO COME’: Putin and French President EMMANUEL MACRON spoke for 90 minutes today, after which a French official at the Élysée said the conflict would only get worse. “This conversation is unfortunately an occasion to hear that President Putin will continue military interventions and to go all the way,” the official told reporters. “Without making a prediction, we should expect the worst is yet to come. The [French] president said so yesterday as well. There is nothing in what Putin said today that should reassure us." Per Russian state media, Putin on the call said Ukraine was to blame for why Kyiv and Moscow couldn’t settle their yearslong issues diplomatically. Falsely, the Russian president also denied his forces bombed Kyiv. 1 MILLION REFUGEES: U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees FILIPPO GRANDI confirmed that 1 million people have fled the fighting in Ukraine in just seven days. “I have worked in refugee emergencies for almost 40 years, and rarely have I seen an exodus as rapid as this one,” he said in a statement. “[U]nless there is an immediate end to the conflict, millions more are likely to be forced to flee Ukraine.” Grandi’s office has a handy, though depressing, dashboard of the refugee situation in Ukraine . It clearly shows the vast majority of refugees — nearly 550,000 as of this writing — have made their way to Poland while Hungary has taken in the second-highest number of people at around 130,000. (H/t to Foreign Policy’s JACK DETSCH for letting us know about the dashboard.)
| | | DOJ OFFICIALS OPPOSE HACK REPORTING BILL: Deputy Attorney General LISA MONACO and FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY are criticizing a cybersecurity incident-reporting bill that passed the Senate this week because it doesn’t include the bureau, per our own ERIC GELLER and BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN (for Pros!). The Strengthening American Cybersecurity Act would require the operators of U.S. power plants, hospitals, ports and other infrastructure to report cyber incidents to DHS within 72 hours. But it wouldn’t require simultaneously reporting to the FBI, which also investigates digital intrusions. Monaco said in a statement that the measure “as drafted … makes us less safe at a time when we face unprecedented threats.” Wray added in his own response that the legislation “has some serious flaws” and “would make the public less safe from cyber threats.”
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | PACAF HYPES BOEING: The Air Force is looking to replace its E-3 airborne early warning and control aircraft and the head of Pacific Air Forces told reporters Thursday he wants the service to buy the Boeing E-7, our own Hudson wrote in. Typically, generals do not promote a defense contractor’s product, particularly when the Pentagon is still deciding whether or not it will buy it. “Given that Australians are flying it, the Brits are getting ready to fly it, the Republic of Korea is flying the E-7” is a reason the U.S. should add it to its inventory, Pacific Air Forces Chief Gen. KENNETH WILSBACH said. NAVY RECOVERS LOST F-35C: The F-35C that crashed into the South China Sea in January was finally recovered by the Navy and a commercial team today. “The F-35C, assigned to the ‘Argonauts’ of VFA-147 Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA), was plucked from the floor of the South China Sea with Navy personnel aboard the offshore vessel DSCV Picasso, which had departed Okinawa on Feb. 23,” USNI’s SAM LaGRONE first reported. “The wreckage was recovered from a depth of approximately 12,400-feet by a team from CTF 75 and the NAVSEA’s Supervisor of Salvage and Diving (SUPSALV) embarked on the diving support construction vessel (DSCV) Picasso ,” reads a statement from U.S. 7th Fleet. “The aircraft was recovered using a CURV-21, a remotely operated vehicle (ROV), which attached specialized rigging and lift lines to the aircraft. The ship’s crane lifting hook was then lowered to the seafloor and connected to the rigging, and then lifted the aircraft to the surface and hoisted it onboard Picasso.”
| | | 'BIGGER THAN WE THOUGHT': HASC Chair Adam Smith said the upcoming defense budget will need to be larger than initially anticipated as the U.S. and its allies grapple with Russia, our own O’Brien wrote in. "I haven't picked a number yet, but without question, it's going to have to be bigger than we thought," Smith said of the coming fiscal 2023 defense budget request. "The Russian invasion of Ukraine fundamentally altered what our national security posture and what our defense posture needs to be," Smith said at the conservative American Enterprise Institute on Thursday morning. "It made it more complicated and it made it more expensive. I don't see much way to argue it. " It's an evolution for Smith, who last year unsuccessfully fought bipartisan efforts to boost Biden's defense budget request by $25 billion and has generally been skeptical of pumping more cash into Pentagon coffers. But for Smith, the threats facing the U.S. — including heightened aggression by Moscow — leave little doubt that military posture needs to be "reasonably robust going forward." "I'm always going to be cautious of the people who always want to spend more money no matter what," Smith said. "But the decision to invade Ukraine by Russia changes it and it's going to go up. There's no doubt about it." WICKER WANTS SASC SPOT: Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.), the ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee, says he’ll seek the top Republican spot on the Senate Armed Services Committee next year after current ranking member Sen. JIM INHOFE (R-Okla.) retires, per our own ALEX DAUGHERTY (for Pros!). “I think most people would assume correctly that someone in my situation, given that choice, would take the leadership position on Armed Services. I look forward to working with Jim Inhofe until the very end,” Wicker said in an interview. Inhofe announced last week that he will retire at the end of the year. Wicker is in line to succeed him on the Armed Services Committee, which is chaired by Sen. JACK REED (D-R.I.). Before entering politics, Wicker served as an officer in the U.S. Air Force from 1976 to 1980, and he retired from the Reserve in 2003 as a lieutenant colonel. He also served on the House Appropriations Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Subcommittee from 1995 to 2007.
| | | |   | | | | | | MBS’ O.J. MOMENT: The national security community isn’t falling for Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN’s second and weak attempt at a PR rehabilitation campaign. During an interview with The Atlantic’s GRAEME WOOD, MBS did the global madman version of O.J. SIMPSON’s “If I Did It.” Asked about the murder of journalist and dissident JAMAL KHASHOGGI , which the CIA concluded MBS ordered, the royal said, “I never read a Khashoggi article in my life.” But, he casually continued, if he did send a murder squad to kill a critic of the authoritarian monarchs in Riyadh, “Khashoggi would not even be among the top 1,000 people on the list. If you’re going to go for another operation like that, for another person, it’s got to be professional and it’s got to be one of the top 1,000.” The murder "hurt me a lot,” MBS added. “It hurt me and it hurt Saudi Arabia, from a feelings perspective." Gross, and Twitter agreed. “ The aggressor always plays the victim,” wrote BEN RHODES , a former top Obama administration official. JENNIFER WILLIAMS, deputy editor at Foreign Policy, alluded to having critical words about the MBS interview “ but they're not appropriate for public consumption.”
| | | — ELLEN KNIGHT has joined the National Security Council as director for records, access, and information security management. She was pushed out of her job during the Trump administration for refusing to go along with a scheme to sabotage JOHN BOLTON’s book.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — VICTORIA SMOLKIN, POLITICO Magazine: “Opinion: One Reason Russia Is Struggling in Ukraine” — DANIEL BYMAN, Lawfare: “ Foreign Fighters in Ukraine? Evaluating the Benefits and Risks” — CAITLIN TALMADGE, Wall Street Journal: “ What Putin’s Nuclear Threats Mean for the U.S.”
| | | — The Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: “Eight Days of Russia’s War in Ukraine — with PHILIP BREEDLOVE, MELINDA HARING, JOHN HERBST and DAVID KRAMER” — The United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: “Twitter Space Series: Protecting Women's Participation in Peacebuilding — with BELQUIS AHMADI and WAZHMA FROGH” — Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: “World Stage: Ukraine with JOHN BOLTON” — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “The Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy — with LISA CURTIS, EDGARD KAGAN, BONNY LIN and H.R. MCMASTER” — The Wilson Center, 12 p.m.: “Germany’s Role in European Russia Policy: A New German Power? — with LIANA FIX and MICHAEL KIMMAGE” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who would provide anyone with targeting intelligence to destroy this newsletter.
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With the same operational footprint as the legendary BLACK HAWK, the Sikorsky-Boeing DEFIANT X™ weapon system is the best fit for the Army Air Assault Mission. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
