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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Jonathan Lemire, Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen gives a press conference, in Paris, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2021. | Thibault Camus/AP Photo | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint The White House has begun to harbor fears that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN could soon notch his biggest victory of the invasion of Ukraine — in Paris. There is growing concern within President JOE BIDEN’s administration about the narrowing polls in the French presidential election that show a tight race between incumbent EMMANUEL MACRON and far-right challenger MARINE LE PEN. A possible victory by Le Pen, a Putin sympathizer, could destabilize the Western coalition against Moscow, upending France’s role as a leading European power and potentially giving other NATO leaders cold feet about staying in the alliance, according to three senior administration officials not authorized to publicly discuss private conversations. Senior U.S. officials have watched warily across the Atlantic for any signs of possible Russian interference in the first round of the elections, which will take place Sunday. Polls suggest that Macron and Le Pen would likely then advance to a showdown on April 24 — and that the potential two-person race would be close. The worst-case scenario, according to White House officials, would be that Le Pen could win and then pull France from the coalition currently standing alongside Kyiv against Moscow. Macron’s government has already walked a fine line with Moscow, with the French president attempting to play the role of mediator in the days before Putin’s invasion. Since then, France has supported the Ukrainians with weapons and assistance, but they’ve been quiet about it, refusing to release details on what and how much they’re sending. Washington fears that a Le Pen in the Élysée would upset this delicate balance. Her victory could then prompt other European leaders — some of whom were already nervous about getting tough on Russia — to bail on the alliance as well. “Her election would be a disaster for Europe and the trans-Atlantic front to support Ukraine,” said BENJAMIN HADDAD , senior director of the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council. “She’s against sanctions and arms delivery, has always aligned on Kremlin talking points on Ukraine or NATO. Her platform includes leaving NATO military command and a series of anti-EU blocking measures that would de facto amount to a Frexit down the road, though she has taken Frexit off her program this time so as not to spook voters.” A Le Pen win, most analysts believe, remains unlikely. In her run five years ago, polls were tight for a time before the race turned into a substantial Macron win. And when the field is narrowed to just two, she may simply become unpalatable to many voters. But if Macron were defeated by Le Pen this time, it could put a huge crack in the trans-Atlantic wall built by Biden and his European counterparts. “If she leads France, it will be incredibly difficult to maintain the relative unity the trans-Atlantic community has shown so far in the war in Ukraine,” said LAUREN SPERANZA, director of the Transatlantic Defense and Security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “Her election would play directly into Putin’s goal of exacerbating cracks in the NATO alliance.” Read the entirety of Lemire’s piece, which features a little assist from the still-alive Alex. 50 DEAD AT UKRAINE TRAIN STATION: A missile killed 50 people Friday, per Ukrainian authorities, after it struck at a busy train station in the contested Donbas region. Officials in Kyiv say Russia launched the missile at Kramatorsk station, while the Kremlin denied any involvement. Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said officials in the administaration “are not buying the denial by the Russians.” “Photos from the scene showed bodies covered with tarps on the ground and the remnants of a rocket with the words ‘For the children’ painted on it in Russian,” reported The Associated Press’ ADAM SCHRECK and CARA ANNA. “About 4,000 civilians were in and around the station, the office of Ukraine’s prosecutor-general said, adding that most were women and children heeding calls to leave the area before Russia launches a full-scale offensive in the country’s east.” “The inhuman Russians are not changing their methods. Without the strength or courage to stand up to us on the battlefield, they are cynically destroying the civilian population,” Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said on social media. “This is an evil without limits. And if it is not punished, then it will never stop.” NatSec Daily asked the National Security Council if the U.S. assesses that the continuing attacks on civilians were ordered from Moscow or if individual Russia commanders are behind them. We didn’t hear back before publishing.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost around 19,000 personnel, 700 tanks, 1,891 armored combat vehicles, 333 artillery systems, 108 multiple-launch rocket systems, 150 warplanes, 135 helicopters, seven ships and 112 drones. ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “The main efforts of the Russian invaders continue to focus on the capture of Mariupol, the offensive in the area of the city of Izyum, [and] breakthroughs in the defence of the Joint Forces in the Donetsk direction. In the South Buh direction, the Russian enemy is trying to prevent the advance of our troops.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “The Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus carry out operational and combat training activities at training grounds throughout the country. Up to four battalion tactical groups have been involved to carry out tasks to strengthen the protection of the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. There is still a possibility of missile and air strikes from the territory of the Republic of Belarus on military and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “The enemy continues to launch air strikes and shell civilian infrastructure, including the use of multiple rocket launchers. Such activities have been recorded in the districts of Kreminna, Severodonetsk, Novotoshkivske, Popasna, Novozvanivka, Sukha Balka, Novoselivka Druha, Stepne, Troitske, Novobahmutivka, Marinka and Solodke.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “In the areas of the settlements of Rubizhne, Popasna, Nyzhne, Novotoshkivske, Zolote and Borivske, the occupiers tried to carry out assault operations, but were unsuccessful. In the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, seven enemy attacks were repulsed in the past 24 hours, [and] four tanks, two artillery systems, ten armoured units and eleven enemy vehicles were destroyed.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) Global Response: — European Union: The EU Council adopted a ban on Russian coal imports as part of its fifth round of sanctions against Russia. — Slovakia: Prime Minister EDUARD HEGER announced the provision of its S-300 air defense system to Ukraine. U.S. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN announced the U.S. will reposition one Patriot missile system in Slovakia as a backfill. — U.K.: Joining the U.S., Foreign Secretary LIZ TRUSS announced sanctions on Putin’s daughters, as well as on Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV’s daughter. — U.S.: The State Department and the Treasury Department announced blocking sanctions on two Russian state-owned enterprises: Joint Stock Company United Shipbuilding Corporation, which develops and constructs Russia’s warships, and Alrosa, the world’s largest diamond mining company. Headlines: — The Associated Press: “Doctors, crater disprove Russia's hospital airstrike misinfo” — Bloomberg: “ Race On to Rearm Eastern Front That May Decide Ukraine War” — The New York Times: “‘The City Lives’: With Russian Forces Gone, Kyiv Starts to Revive” RUSSIAN INVASION ENDING SOON? Count us skeptical, but Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV today told reporters that Russia’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine will end in the “foreseeable future.” Per Peskov, Russia has nearly achieved its military objectives while diplomats continue to work out a negotiated solution. Peskov and other Russian officials said there’d be no invasion, and now they want the world to believe they’re succeeding in Ukraine when the fact is they’re getting bloodied and beaten. For example: Of the 120 battalion tactical groups Russia pushed into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 40 of them — including those that led the assault on Kyiv and Chernihiv — have retreated to Belarus to refit, a process that could take weeks, at best. Peskov even told Sky News today that Russia lost thousands of troops. “It’s a huge tragedy for us,” he said. (Cue tiny violins.) It’s possible Russia will leave Ukraine. But that’s because it lost — not because it won. But let’s just say we’ll believe it when we see it, not when the Kremlin says it. MEET UKRAINE’S ‘IRON GENERAL’: He’s not flashy. He doesn’t seek the media spotlight. But VALERIY ZALUZHNYY, the 48-year-old commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, is the man who has led Ukraine’s military to stunning victories against Russia in the first weeks of the war. “If a single person can be credited with Ukraine’s surprising military successes so far — protecting Kyiv, the capital, and holding most other major cities amid an onslaught — it is Zaluzhnyy, a round-faced 48-year-old general who was born into a military family, and appointed as his country’s top uniformed commander by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July 2021. Zaluzhnny and other Ukrainian commanders had been preparing for a full-on war with Russia since 2014,” our own DAVID HERSZENHORN and PAUL McLEARY reported in a must-read profile. What Zaluzhnyy has done is less devise a strategic framework for the war and more allow his lower-level troops — many of whom have fought in the Donbas for eight years — to leverage their experience and training with NATO militaries. That combat and the hands-on training by NATO in western Ukraine over the past few years has spawned a new generation of small-unit leaders and noncommissioned officers who can think and act independently. The changes weren’t immediate, but the hard-won knowledge from regular skirmishes quickened a “cultural change at the battalion level on down,” said retired U.S. Army Col. LIAM COLLINS, who worked as the top aide to JOHN ABIZAID, the retired four-star who then-President BARACK OBAMA sent to Kyiv to advise the Ukrainian military leadership from 2016 to 2018. “An entire generation understood how to lead, and I think the generals understood that it worked.” A former U.S. special forces officer, who saw the change in Ukrainian special operations forces over the years, said by 2020, the Ukrainian commandos “looked, smelled and tasted like Western SoF.” In other words, Zaluzhnyy’s genius was to let his troops — steeped in today’s warfare — do what they do best and unshackle Ukraine’s armed forces from Soviet-era procedures.
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | HONG KONG’S NEXT CHIEF: The likely appointment of JOHN LEE as Hong Kong’s next chief executive could signal an even tighter grip for China on the city. “He oversaw the crackdown against pro-democracy protesters in 2019, helped roll out the new national security law and is trusted to follow and implement — not lead — in a territory tightly controlled by Beijing. He, so far, is the single candidate approved by China to run for the office on May 8,” The Washington Post’s SHIBANI MAHTANI and THEODORA YU reported. “Lee has a history of defending, promoting and advancing Hong Kong’s most controversial laws and appears set to further erode civil society, independent media and the scant remains of the opposition.” Lee, now 64, was promoted in 2017 as secretary of security, putting him in the position to help Beijing take control of the once democratic city. He also visited Xinjiang — the western Chinese province where millions of Uyghur Muslims are held in camps against their will — and deemed the so-called counterterrorism measures “humane.” Lee, the only China-approved candidate to run for office on May 8, is clearly a hard-liner who backs the yearslong crackdown on Hong Kong by Beijing. That spells trouble.
| | | OFFICIAL FINNISH SITES ATTACKED: Finland’s Defense Ministry and Ministry of Foreign Affairs tweeted that their respective websites were under distributed denial of service attacks — right as Zelenskyy was addressing the country’s parliament. About two hours later, the Foreign Affairs Ministry said the situation returned to normal. It remains unclear exactly who was behind the DDoS strike, but the timing suggests an obvious culprit: Russia. Finland could begin a process to join NATO in a matter of weeks, as Russia’s invasion and shifting public opinion has led Helsinki to reconsider the country’s longtime neutral position. Finland, though, firmly sides with the West politically and economically, and its troops train with Americans. On Friday, Finnish authorities said Russian aircraft violated the country’s airspace.
| | | |   | | | | | | UNFUNDED WISHLIST: More military unfunded-requirements lists are on their way to the Hill, per our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!). Our own CONNOR O’BRIEN got a look at the Air Force and Space Force priorities that didn’t get included in the fiscal 2023 budget. More F-35s: The Air Force's $4.6 billion list includes seven more F-35 fighters and four more EC-37 Compass Call electronic warfare planes. The list also includes $197 million for hypersonic missile testing and $276 million to buy more small-diameter bombs. Missile Warning: The Space Force has $639 million in funded requirements, including $200 million for two launches for a developmental missile warning-and-tracking layer. The goal is to speed up the system's initial launch capability to fiscal 2025. Combatant commands: Special Operations Command outlined $656 million in unmet needs in its wish list. And in a letter, European Command head Gen. TOD WOLTERS said the president's budget is adequate to carry out his mission, but cautioned that more money might eventually be needed to respond to the Ukraine crisis.
| | | CONGRESS’ LONG-TERM RUSSIA PLAY: Lawmakers showed this week that they are serious about helping Ukraine and pushing back on Russia — letting Putin know that it isn’t just Biden he has to worry about in the U.S. “After weeks of delays, the Senate and House nearly unanimously passed legislation to isolate Moscow from the global economy in ways that some acknowledge could become permanent,” the first time Congress has sent sanctions measures to Biden’s desk since the invasion began, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO and JOSH SIEGEL wrote. No single reason brought lawmakers together on this, though they told POLITICO of “a shifting belief that Ukraine can actually win the war, not simply hold off the Russians, and that the U.S. ally will need months or even years of U.S. help to do it.” “The most imminent threat to our security, I believe, is [China]. But obviously you can’t ignore a guy who has a bunch of tactical nuclear weapons and who sort of rips his mask off and exposes the kind of criminal that he is,” Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) said of Putin. “This isn’t just a one-off.… This is going to be a longer-term proposition.” Analysts have long told NatSec Daily that passing congressional measures to help Ukraine would be a greater signal of America’s support for Ukraine. The president can do a lot by executive action, but legislators drafting and passing bills makes actions stick. Plus, Putin now can’t count on a divided Congress to weaken America’s resolve — his actions in Ukraine have mostly united partisans on this single issue.
| | | ‘SHAMEFUL’ GERMANY: Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany is, uh, not very pleased with Berlin’s performance in the confrontation with Russia. "It's not just Russian gas, it's oil, coal, metals, diamonds and other raw materials. We [Ukraine] have become the biggest victim of this perverted relationship. Ukrainians are paying for this failed German policy with their lives," ANDRIJ MELNYK told Reuters’ JOHN O’DONNELL in an interview today. "This kind of hypocrisy with Russia dates back to Nord Stream 1 [gas pipeline]," Melnyk continued, adding, "Germany's huge dependence on Russia, at a time of the worst aggression since the Second World War, is shameful." Kyiv has soured on Germany since its initial moves with the West to counter Russia. Not only is that pipeline still open, but also Berlin was responsible for watering down a coal embargo that won’t kick in until August. "Germany is as far away from giving us the support we need today as it was at the start of the war," Melnyk said. "More than 40 days later, the German political elite apparently still does not believe that Ukraine can win the war."
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | — WILLIAM LAPLANTE has been confirmed by the Senate to serve as undersecretary of Defense for acquisition and sustainment. He previously served as assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition in the Obama administration.
| | | — AMANDA RIPLEY, POLITICO Magazine: “The Untold Story of the Afghan Women Who Hunted The Taliban” — WIDLORE MÉRANCOURT, AMANDA COLETTA, CLAIRE PARKER and SAMANTHA SCHMIDT, The Washington Post: “Haiti’s assassination probe has stalled. The U.S. one is advancing.” — DOV LIEBER and SHAYNDI RAICE, The Wall Street Journal: “ Terrorist Attacks in Israel, Jerusalem Tensions Challenge Palestinian Strategy”
| | | — The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 8 a.m.: “2022 Spring Symposium — with YLLI BAJRAKTARI, RYAN CARPENTER, SUE GORDON , LARRY HANAUER, CATHERINE MARSH and more” — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9 a.m.: “The War in Ukraine and Implications for Global Food Security — with HEATHER A. CONLEY, HEIDI HEITKAMP and CINDY MCCAIN” — The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 11 a.m.: “Defense Minister BENNY GANTZ Discusses Israel’s Strategic Challenges — with ROBERT SATLOFF” — New America, 12 p.m.: “The Forever Prisoner: Abu Zubaydah and the CIA’s ‘Enhanced Interrogation’ Program — with PETER BERGEN and CATHY SCOTT-CLARK” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 12:30 p.m.: “Caught in the Middle: Turkey’s Position Amidst Russia’s War on Ukraine — with VASYL BODNAR, ALPER COŞKUN, TACAN ILDEM, HUMEYRA PAMUK and BRUNO TERTRAIS” — The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: “The New MAD: Massive Attacks of Disruption — with SUSAN EISENHOWER, JAMES FOGGO, CHRISTOPHER PREBLE, ISABEL SAWHILL and HARLAN ULLMAN” — Washington Post Live, 1 p.m.: “World Stage: Israel with MICHAEL HERZOG — with SOUAD MEKHENNET” — The Middle East Institute, 3 p.m.: “Ukraine, Libya, and the Global Enduring Disorder — with JASON PACK and JONATHAN WINER” — The East–West Center, 9 p.m.: “ America: A Singapore Perspective — with TOMMY KOH, SATU P. LIMAYE and DALJIT SINGH”
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