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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Ryan Heath and Quint Forgey | | 
Representatives voting in favor of a resolution raise their hands during a U.N. Security Council meeting on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Friday Feb. 25, 2022 at U.N. headquarters. | John Minchillo/AP Photo | With help from Joseph Gedeon, Lee Hudson and Phelim Kine. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Members of the United Nations Security Council showed their increasing frustration with Russia in today’s debate about the atrocities documented in Bucha — but the session served mostly to highlight the limits of the intergovernmental organization’s security architecture. While the U.N. bureaucracy doesn’t pretend to be neutral on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the message #StopRussianAggression periodically filled the U.N.’s livestream screen — hashtags and dire warnings are most of what it offered today. Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES worked to explicitly link Russian aggression to possible economic collapse in as many as 74 developing countries hit hardest by energy, food and fertilizer price spikes. But there are no U.N. tools to stave off those economic traumas. The U.S., U.K. and EU members have all decided to push for Russia’s suspension from the U.N. Human Rights Council, via a vote in the organization’s General Assembly. While it’s an important symbolic gesture, the move does nothing to safeguard those in the conflict zones. Meanwhile, a multipronged approach to accountability around alleged war crimes is gathering steam, but it also threatens to further undermine the U.N. system. India today joined calls for an independent probe into human rights abuses in Ukraine — the first time it has pushed back on a Russia position during the conflict. But there’s no sign yet of that investigation. The International Court of Justice held public hearings in March on Russia’s invasion and ordered its forces to withdraw, to no avail. Thirty-nine countries have petitioned the International Criminal Court, and an investigation into possible war crimes is underway. Still, a prosecution may take years. In addition to urging the U.N. Security Council to dissolve itself if it cannot guarantee his country’s security, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY today pushed for a Nuremberg-style tribunal to hold Russia accountable. Zelenskyy’s arguments were strong and sincere. But in the words of a European Union ambassador to the U.N., European countries are not likely to support such a move because “we want to support the U.N, not weaken it” through tribunals operating outside of the organization’s jurisdiction. At the end of the day, U.N. reform is likely as far away as ever, and abuses in Ukraine are certain to continue. Recalling that members of the Security Council questioned whether a million Rwandans were being murdered in the country’s 1994 genocide, Kenyan U.N. Ambassador MARTIN KIMANI told the body: “That the truth in Bucha is contested is the surest sign that we stand on the precipice of more widespread abuses of human rights.”
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Russian forces are “regrouping troops and concentrating [their] efforts on preparing an offensive operation in the east of our country. The goal is to establish full control over the territory of” the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Russian forces also are “trying to improve the position of units in the Tavriya and Pivdennobuzhsky operational areas.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Russian forces “continue to suffer losses. They have big problems with the staffing of combat units and support units. The enemy’s personnel were demoralized, which led to an increase in the number of desertions and the refusal of servicemen … to take part in the war on the territory of Ukraine.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “We have just begun an investigation into all that the occupiers have done. At present, there is information about more than 300 people killed and tortured in Bucha alone. It is likely that the list of victims will be much larger when the whole city is checked. And this is only one city.” (Zelenskyy) Global Response: — Czech Republic: The government has sent T-72 tanks and BVP-1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine. — France: Prosecutors opened three investigations into potential war crimes committed by Russian soldiers against French nationals in Ukraine. — Italy: Foreign Affairs Minister LUIGI DI MAIO announced the expulsion of 30 Russian diplomats from Rome, prompting Moscow to pledge retaliation. — U.S.: The Treasury Department has stopped sharing tax information with the Russian government, has unveiled new actions targeting the use of cryptocurrencies in Russian ransomware attacks and other financial crimes, and has advised that it will no longer allow Russia to make payments on its debt using dollars held at U.S. banks. Headlines: — CNN: “U.S. to announce new sanction package on Russia on Wednesday” — Reuters: “ Satellite images show civilian deaths in Ukraine town while it was in Russian hands” — The Washington Post: “In shattered Chernihiv, Russian siege leaves a city asking, ‘Why?’” EU OPTS AGAINST RUSSIAN OIL EMBARGO: Amid resistance from countries led by Germany, the European Union stopped short Tuesday of banning Russian oil imports, reports our own BARBARA MOENS. Instead, Russian coal deliveries worth €4 billion a year will be removed from the bloc’s energy imports, according to a sanctions package put to member countries by the European Commission. In addition, there will be bans on Russian vessels and trucks entering the EU and tougher sanctions on four key Russian banks, which will be totally cut off from the markets. But Ukraine and several Eastern European countries have been pushing for a full energy embargo, arguing that oil and gas revenues are the main revenue streams funding Putin’s war. An oil ban is particularly difficult for Germany, however. One official in Berlin stressed that banning gas was impossible for Germany and that it might also take months for Europe's leading economy to be in a position to end its use of Russian oil. In contrast, the German government had already made clear it would phase out Russian coal by the summer. STOLTENBERG SAYS INVASION ENTERING ‘CRUCIAL PHASE’: Ahead of a meeting of NATO’s foreign ministers, Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG warned that while Russia is moving back some of its forces around Kyiv, “Moscow is not giving up its ambitions in Ukraine,” reports our own LILI BAYER. “We now see a significant movement of troops away from Kyiv — to regroup, rearm and resupply, and they shift their focus to the east,” Stoltenberg told reporters. In the coming weeks, he said, “we expect a further Russian push in the eastern and southern Ukraine to try to take the entire Donbas and to create a land bridge to occupied Crimea” — a portion of Ukraine that Russia annexed in 2014. He added: “This is a crucial phase of the war.” The NATO ministers are scheduled to meet in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday. Joining part of the discussion will be Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA, as well as partners from non-NATO countries Finland, Sweden and Georgia. The EU and Asia-Pacific partners from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea also will participate.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Who builds the unrivaled F-35? The unrivaled, high-tech American workforce.
The F-35 provides unrivaled air combat superiority to the warfighter and supports high-paying, high-quality jobs for American workers in the innovation economy. More than half of U.S. based F-35 suppliers are small businesses. Learn more. | | | IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | U.S. SILENTLY TESTED HYPERSONIC MISSILE: Days after Russia announced last month that it used a hypersonic missile to attack a Ukrainian munitions depot, the U.S. successfully tested its own hypersonic missile but kept the launch quiet so as not to ramp up tensions ahead of Biden’s trip to Europe, according to CNN’s OREN LIEBERMANN. The U.S. missile was a Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept launched from a B-52 bomber off the West Coast, Liebermann reports. “A booster engine accelerated the missile to high speed, at which point the air-breathing scramjet engine ignited and propelled the missile at hypersonic speeds of Mach 5 and above.” The newly reported U.S. launch is the second successful test of a HAWC missile and the first of Lockheed Martin’s version of the weapon. Last September, the Air Force tested Raytheon’s HAWC, powered by a Northrop Grumman scramjet engine. In its defense budget for the upcoming fiscal year, the Biden administration has requested $7.2 billion for long-range fires, including hypersonic missiles. PYONGYANG STILL FURIOUS AT SEOUL: KIM YO JONG, the powerful sister of North Korean leader KIM JONG UN, issued her second criticism this week of South Korean Defense Minister SUH WOOK, who warned last Friday that Seoul has preemptive strike capabilities should Pyongyang decide to attack, per The Associated Press’ KIM TONG-HYUNG. Kim Yo Jong referred to those remarks as a “fantastic daydream” and the “hysteria of a lunatic” in a statement Tuesday carried by state media. She also said Pyongyang’s response to a potential preemptive strike by Seoul would leave South Korea’s military “little short of total destruction and ruin.” She previously described Suh as a “scum-like guy” in a statement Sunday. The escalating rhetoric comes after Seoul accused Pyongyang of test-firing an existing intercontinental ballistic missile last month when it claimed to have launched a more powerful, newly developed weapon. South Korea then announced last week that it conducted its first successful launch of a solid-fuel rocket. CHINA THREAT PROMPTS JAPANESE RADAR REDEPLOYMENT: Concerns about heightening military tensions with China over Taiwan prompted Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force last Friday to redeploy a mobile radar unit to the country’s westernmost island, per Stars and Stripes’ MATTHEW M. BURKE and MARI HIGA. The radar unit on Yonaguni island, just 70 miles from the east coast of Taiwan, is a response to intensified Chinese military activities in the area. “Not only their activities are increasing, but also their activity area is expanding,” said a Self-Defense Force spokesperson. AUKUS MOUNTS HYPERSONIC PUSH: The two member nations of the Commonwealth are teaming up with the Americans in an arms race to develop hypersonic weapons. In this case, the goal of their trilateral cooperation, known as the AUKUS security pact, will be to match China and Russia, and to warn them that their use of hypersonic weapons will not go unanswered, according to our own CRISTINA GALLARDO . Russia had admitted to using hypersonic missiles to take down an ammunition warehouse in Ukraine just last month, while China reportedly tested its hypersonic capabilities last year.
| | | TWITTER TIGHTENS CONTROLS ON KREMLIN ACCOUNTS: Twitter is limiting the reach of Russian government-run accounts in response to the Kremlin curtailing internet access in the country, reports our own REBECCA KERN (for Pros!) The new policy is being rolled out more than five weeks into Russia’s invasion, which has seen the Russian government use its Twitter accounts to widely spread disinformation and propaganda about the war — while limiting Twitter access for its own citizens. Twitter’s latest actions could draw the ire of Russia’s communications regulator, Roskomnadzor, which has already blocked access to Meta’s Facebook and Instagram and has threatened to block Google’s YouTube within the country for limiting the spread of Russian state-run media on their sites. Separately, Twitter will remove all media shared by government or state-affiliated media accounts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict that depict prisoners of war — including content depicting them being subjected to violent or ill treatment.
| | | |   | | | | | | MILLEY BREAKS WITH BIDEN ON NUKE CRUISE MISSILE: Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY told lawmakers Tuesday that he still supports the development of a nuclear-tipped sea-launched cruise missile that the Biden administration wants to cancel, reports our own CONNOR O’BRIEN. Speaking at a House Armed Services Committee hearing, Milley said his advice to the commander in chief would stay private, but that his views on the cruise missile — known as the SLCM-N — and low-yield nuclear weapons “have not” changed. “My general view is that this president or any president deserves to have multiple options to deal with national security situations,” he said. Milley’s remarks make him the latest senior officer to break with the administration’s plan to scrap the missile, after top officers in Europe and overseeing the nuclear force backed it. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, meanwhile, downplayed the decision to slash the program, saying: “The marginal capability that this provides is far outweighed by the cost. So we had the ability to provide options to the president with a number of means.” 3-D PRINTED BARRACKS: The Defense Innovation Unit has partnered with the Army to build three barracks using additive manufacturing at Fort Bliss in Texas. Each barracks will be larger than 5,700 sq. ft., making them the largest 3-D printed structures in the Western hemisphere. The project was awarded to ICON, DIU project manager SEAN ANDERSON tells our own LEE HUDSON. DIU previously partnered with the Marine Corps to prototype ICON’s construction processes at forward-deployed locations. Using 3-D printing to build military facilities saves the Army in labor costs, reduces planning time and increases the speed of production for future projects, said Lt. Gen. DOUG GABRAM, head of Army Installation Management Command.
| | | DEMS WEIGH WHETHER TO BACK OR BOOST BIDEN’S BUDGET: Spurred on by high inflation and a raging land war in Europe, Democratic lawmakers for the second year in a row are looking at rebuffing their own president and adding tens of billions of dollars to the Defense Department’s budget that the agency didn’t ask for, O’Brien also reports. Biden is seeking a $30 billion boost from the current year that would push overall national defense spending to $813 billion. Republicans on the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, however, are pushing for a 5 percent increase to defense spending above the rate of inflation and are again counting on enough Democrats to take their side. How Democrats will break on the budget isn’t yet clear. Rep. ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.) is already backing the push for another defense increase beyond Biden’s level, saying, “I think we need a 5 percent real increase in the budget, and I think that our ultimate goal should be to get to 5 percent of GDP, or [approximately] $1 trillion.” But House Armed Services Chair ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) cautioned: “It can’t just be a debate about the topline.”
| | | SCHAKE WANTS EXTRA $384 BILLION IN DEFENSE SPENDING: KORI SCHAKE , director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute and former deputy director of policy planning at the State Department, is calling on Biden to boost defense spending by hundreds of millions of dollars. In a Foreign Affairs op-ed, she argues Biden’s $813 billion request for the Pentagon is too small to guarantee safety, and that it may inspire rival nations to challenge the United States militarily. “The changes needed to bring the Defense Department’s budget back in line with its strategy involve a hefty price tag: around an additional $384 billion per year, a figure about 50 percent greater than the current Pentagon budget,” she writes. “Spending and program estimates also typically swell to two or three times initial estimates, and all these figures will need to be adjusted to the actual rate of inflation.” “Defense is expensive. It’s inefficient,” Schake continues. “But it is an essential insurance policy designed to guarantee that the United States can protect itself, its allies, and its interests. Americans have allowed their military to atrophy, and they urgently need to restore both its reach and its punch. U.S. defense spending in 1953 was 11.3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product; this year, it is 3.7 percent. Washington needs to make up the gap before its adversaries gain too much ground.” Republicans in Congress soundly agree with Schake’s assessment and have pushed for even larger investments into the Pentagon. Democrats, however, have been split on whether an increase is necessary.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Who builds the unrivaled F-35? The unrivaled, high-tech American workforce.
The F-35 program invests in American workers, creates the jobs of the future, and advances the digital enterprise. Learn more. | | | | | | — LINDA FAGAN will be nominated by the president to serve as the next commandant of the Coast Guard. She is an admiral who currently serves as the service’s vice commandant. If confirmed, she would be the first woman to lead a military service branch. — The Senate Armed Services Committee advanced four national security nominees for consideration by the full chamber: MARVIN ADAMS to be deputy administrator for defense programs at the National Nuclear Security Administration; TIA JOHNSON to be a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces; WILLIAM LAPLANTE to be the Defense Department’s undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment; and ERIK RAVEN to be undersecretary of the Navy.
| | | — GIOVANNA DELL’ORTO and MARIAM FAM, The Associated Press: “Afghan evacuees mark first US Ramadan with gratitude, agony” — ROBBIE GRAMER and SARA HAGOS, Foreign Policy: “ U.S. Opens Door to Ukrainian Refugees, Shuts It for Others From Africa” — MARLISE SIMONS and ISABELLA KWAI, The New York Times: “200,000 Dead, One Lone Defendant as Darfur Trial Begins”
| | | — House Appropriations Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: United States Africa Command — with STEPHEN J. TOWNSEND” — House Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: United States Citizenship and Immigration Services FY23 Budget Request — with UR M. JADDOU” — House Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: U.S. International Assistance to Combat Narcotics Trafficking — with JAMES WALSH” — House Intelligence Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Compartmented Hearing” — House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Mobilizing Our Cyber Defenses: Maturing Public-Private Partnerships to Secure U.S. Critical Infrastructure — with ERIC GOLDSTEIN, ROBERT K. KNAKE and TINA WON SHERMAN” — Senate Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: A Review of the Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Submission for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation — with MICHAEL CONNOR, DAVID PALUMBO and SCOTT A. SPELLMON ” — Senate Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Testimony on Suicide Prevention and Related Behavioral Health Interventions in the Department of Defense — with CRAIG BRYAN, BETH ZIMMER CARTER, P. MURALI DORAISWAMY , BRENDA FARRELL, CHRIS FORD, RICHARD MOONEY, KARIN ORVIS and MICHAEL ROARK” — House Appropriations Committee, 10:30 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: FY 2023 Department of Veterans Affairs Budget Hearing — with DENIS MCDONOUGH and JON RYCHALSKI” — House Veterans' Affairs Committee, 10:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Markup on Pending Legislation” — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 11:15 a.m.: “Business Meeting” — The American Enterprise Institute, 12 p.m.: “War in Ukraine: Russian Losses, Ukrainian Victory, and the Information War — with GEORGE BARROS, JAMIE FLY, FREDERICK W. KAGAN and DANIELLE PLETKA” — House Majority Leader STENY HOYER and Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY, 1 p.m.: “ Congressional Hackathon 4.0” — The Johns Hopkins University, 1 p.m.: “ Sino-Russian Relations Amid War in Ukraine: What's Next? — with ALEXANDER GABUEV and SERGEY RADCHENKO” — House Appropriations Committee, 1:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: DHS Office of Inspector General FY23 Budget Request — with JOSEPH V. CUFFARI” — House Armed Services Committee, 2 p.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Strategic Forces National Security Space Programs — with MICHAEL GUETLEIN, JON LUDWIGSON, JOHN PLUMB, CHRISTOPHER SCOLESE and TONYA P. WILKERSON” — House Homeland Security Committee, 2 p.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: Examining Title 42 and the Need to Restore Asylum at the Border — with MARK DANNELS, KENNJI KIZUKA, AARON REICHLIN-MELNICK and ADAM RICHARDS” — Senate Armed Services Committee, 2:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Testimony on the Department of Defense’s Posture for Supporting and Fostering Innovation — with MICHAEL BROWN, HEIDI SHYU and STEFANIE TOMPKINS” — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:30 p.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Treaties — with VAUGHN ARY, JIM SOUSA, JOHN THOMPSON, RICHARD VISEK and STEPHEN YUREK” — The American Security Project, 3 p.m.: “Bear-ing Down: Geopolitical Implications of Russian Sanctions — with LOUISE SHELLEY, MANDEEP WALIA and JUAN ZARATE” — Washington Post Live, 3 p.m.: “117th Congress: Rep. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.) — with JACQUELINE ALEMANY” — The Atlantic and the University of Chicago's Institute of Politics, 4 p.m.: “Disinformation and the Erosion of Democracy — with ANNE APPLEBAUM, DAVID AXELROD, BARACK OBAMA, MARIA RESSA and more”
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