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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Nahal Toosi and Joseph Gedeon | | 
An Israeli soldier secures a bus stop while Israeli settlers wait for a ride at the Gush Etzion junction, the transportation hub for a number of West Bank Jewish settlements, Thursday, June 9, 2022. | Maya Alleruzzo/AP Photo | With help from Christopher Miller, Connor O’Brien, Lawrence Ukenye and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint In late 2019, then-Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO threw out decades of official U.S. policy when he declared that America no longer considered Israeli settlements in the West Bank as being illegal under international law. This was a major change, but it wasn’t much of a surprise coming from then-President DONALD TRUMP ’s administration. Instead, it was just one of numerous pro-Israel, anti-Palestinian moves made by Trump and his aides that undercut the idea of a future two-state solution What has surprised Mideast observers? Since JOE BIDEN took the Oval Office, there’s been no reversal of the reversal — no going back to the 1978 State Department legal opinion that the settlements were inconsistent with international law. This means that the Biden administration, unlike most of the international community, believes that the settlements are totally legit, right? Right? For months, our own NAHAL TOOSI has been privately and publicly asking Biden administration figures to lay out their official position on the legality of Israel’s settlement construction. (It has not helped her popularity with the Biden crowd.) At best, we’ve been handed irrelevant talking points. Usually, we’re just ignored. Sometimes, U.S. diplomats appear startled by the question. “I have no update for you on that particular topic,” one said when Toosi raised it during an on-the-record press call. Today, a senior State Department official offered, once again, the standard talking points of the administration: that it’s focused on improving conditions for both Palestinians and Israelis and that it opposes measures that exacerbate tensions, including settlement expansion. “We’ve been focused on making practical, tangible advances on the ground in support of a two-state solution,” the official said. The lack of clarity about the Biden team’s views on the legality of settlements underscores, first, that Trump aides were savvy in making many of their moves toward the Israelis and Palestinians hard to switch back. Biden didn’t even try to reverse Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. He still hasn’t fulfilled a promise to reopen the U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem, the diplomatic mission that dealt with the Palestinians which Trump closed. Early on, Trump-era changes to the wording of certain documents made it hard for Biden aides to answer the question of whether the West Bank was “occupied” by Israel. (Eventually, State Department spokesperson NED PRICE declared the occupation “ a historical fact.”) Biden would face political blowback he can ill afford right now should he make major moves, not just from Israel but also Congress. In addition, he could cause new legal and policy headaches for his team. In the case of whether the settlements are legal or illegal under international law, for instance, the 1978 opinion was an important marker, but not every U.S. president adopted its language. Depending on the particulars of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the time, some avoided tough anti-settlement language to help make some progress toward peace. (Not that it worked.) Even Pompeo’s announcement about the new policy had its caveats. The Biden administration may wish to avoid taking a new position that would lead to demands for more clarity. The political calculation may be that ambiguity is helpful — although it’s not quite clear how that’s the case. It’s worth noting that the Biden administration has restored much of the funding to the Palestinian people that Trump had essentially zeroed out. It has taken some steps to upgrade its ties to Palestinians short of reopening the consulate. It also was a key player in defusing last year’s battle between Israel and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip. The bottom line, however, is that Biden appears to have no serious interest in trying to resolve the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He and his team see no political upside to getting too involved. Plus, the Israelis appear uninterested, and it’s not clear whether the Palestinian leadership has the capacity to deliver on anything it promises. Biden is due to visit Israel later this summer. He and his aides are hopeful about some elements of their relationship with Israel, including its growing ties to Arab countries via the Trump-era Abraham Accords. But do he and his aides have some new proposal, idea, policy, anything, planned to change the Israeli-Palestinian status quo? Toosi asked. We were told there’d be no comment.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin and Airbus announced the LMXT’s boom will be manufactured in Arkansas, reinforcing that the LMXT will be built in America for Americans by Americans. Learn more. | | | | | | UKRAINE WANTS WESTERN SECURITY GUARANTEES: In Kyiv, IHOR ZHOVKVA, deputy head of the office of Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, told our own CHRISTOPHER MILLER that Ukraine wants new, binding security guarantees from the West and to revisit discussions on the matter that began in March. Zhovkva said any and all states ready to defend Ukraine would be welcome to sign their names on any agreement, but the United States must be involved for any security guarantees to work. The idea, he said, is to create a binding agreement that would be similar to NATO’s Article 5, which states that any attack on a member of the Western military alliance will be considered an attack on all and would trigger a response. In April, CNN and other outlets reported that Ukraine’s U.S. and EU supporters were considering security guarantees for the country but that they likely wouldn’t go as far as Kyiv wants them to go. Zhovkva said Ukraine wants something that goes beyond the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and would have real teeth. Under the Budapest Memorandum, Russia, the U.S., and the U.K. pledged “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and not to use military force against it in exchange for Kyiv giving up a large nuclear arsenal. But it lacked a guarantee that those countries’ militaries would come to Ukraine’s defense. “Look, we had this infamous Budapest Memorandum, you'll remember,” Zhovkva said. “We received just a piece of paper without even the word guarantees mentioned in the text. Instead of guarantees [we got] assurances. And the only real mechanisms which had to be applied in case of aggression was consultations” between the document’s signatories. “But even those consultations we didn't manage to have in 2014, when [Russia] started the war against Ukraine. We tried to have this mechanism working, to put it in force. The guarantors even refused.” Zhovkva said Zelenskyy has recently discussed the issue of a treaty with the leaders of the U.S., U.K. and Germany, while his chief of staff ANDRIY YERMAK has talked to his counterparts and national security advisers of those respective countries. Ukraine first introduced the idea of new security guarantees while negotiating with Russia over the current invasion in March in Turkey, according to Zelenskyy’s office . The head of the Ukrainian negotiating group, DAVID ARAKHAMIA, said at the time that the guarantees would not apply to the Russia-occupied areas of the Donbas and Crimea. Zhovkva said that having such guarantees in place — in case of future invasions — means that Kyiv “will not need to be begging” and negotiating for everything it needs, which would take up valuable time. Instead, he said, it “would mean that each guarantor will know what it should give to Ukraine, this or that kind of weapon, and this many, and […] this ammunition or whatever.” NAVARRO ARREST VIDEO: Following his highly publicized arrest at Reagan National Airport, PETER NAVARRO, the former director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, has asked the United States for video and audio recordings from the moment he was apprehended. The thing is, the Department of Justice says they don’t exist. “To the Government’s knowledge, aside from agent notes relating to the FBI report memorializing the Defendant’s arrest, the materials the Defendant seeks do not exist,” the Department of Justice said in a response obtained by our own KYLE CHENEY. “Or to the extent they may exist, are not in the possession, custody or control of the prosecution team.” Navarro was detained last Friday on misdemeanor charges for contempt of Congress that stem from defying a subpoena to testify in front of the Jan. 6 House select committee. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | RUSSIA’S ‘TENFOLD’ ARTILLERY ADVANTAGE: VALERIY ZALUZHNYY, a Ukrainian four-star general and the country’s current commander-in-chief of the armed forces, told Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. MARK MILLEY that Ukraine is seriously outgunned in the eastern Donbas region and pleaded with him to send more heavy weapons. In a post on Facebook, Zaluzhnyy said he told Milley late Sunday that Ukrainian troops are holding their positions for now but Russian forces are using “artillery en masse and unfortunately has a tenfold fire superiority.” “Every meter of Ukrainian land there is covered in blood – not only by ours but also that of the occupiers,” Zaluzhnyy said. He said the situation is toughest in and around the city of Sievierodonetsk, in Luhansk province, where Russia has “up to 7 battalion tactical groups were deployed by the enemy there.” Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk regional administration, wrote on Telegram Monday that Russian artillery and intense street battles are destroying Sievierodonetsk “block by block.” He said that Ukraine only holds 30 percent of the city and tweeted that Russian shelling had demolished two bridges there, leaving only one bridge for anyone to escape by car. “As of today, we have a frontline width of 2,450 km, among which 1,105 km are active hostilities,” Zaluzhnyy said. He pleaded with Milley: “Help us get more 155 mm caliber artillery systems in the shortest possible time.” On Monday, Zelenskyy advisor MYKHAILO PODOLYAK spelled out exactly what Ukraine says it needs to defend itself. “Being straightforward – to end the war we need heavy weapons parity,” he tweeted with the following list: 1,000 155 mm-caliber howitzers; 300 MLRS; 500 tanks; 2,000 armored vehicles; 1,000 drones. “Contact Group of Defense Ministers meeting is held in #Brussels on June 15,” he added, referring to the event held within the parameters of the upcoming NATO defense ministers’ summit. “We are waiting for a decision.” RETURN TO ISRAEL: The Israeli Foreign Ministry issued a dire directive to Israelis abroad in Turkey: Come back, now. “If you've planned a flight to Istanbul - cancel it,” Minister of Foreign Affairs YAIR LAPID said in a statement . “No vacation is worth your lives and the lives of your loved ones.” An Israeli security official told Reuters that the government of Turkey had “arrested several suspected ‘operatives’ of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards,” who are targeting Israelis on vacation “with a view to kidnapping or murdering them,” the official said. Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel for its violent late-May assassination of Col. HASSAN SAYAD KHODAYARI, a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force who was killed by assailants on motorcycles outside his home in Tehran. TAIWAN STRAIT = CHINA?: The dividing line between China and the United States’ reading of international law is not exactly a line, but a strait. Not an inch of the Taiwan Strait is “international waters,” China’s foreign minister said in response to a question from Bloomberg, which first reported the story, something the American government very clearly disputes. “China has sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN told reporters at a press conference. “At the same time, it respects the lawful rights of other countries in relevant waters. There is no legal basis of ‘international waters’ in the international law of the sea. It is a false claim when certain countries call the Taiwan Strait ‘international waters’ in order to find pretext for manipulating issues related to Taiwan and threatening China’s sovereignty and security.” The strait in question is a 110-mile-wide channel that separates Taiwan from mainland China, which has ramped up the rhetoric on its legal status. This should be disturbing to the U.S., whose Navy often frequents the strait, with a Bloomberg analysis identifying three such trips this year.
| | | |   | | | | | | MALWARE IDENTIFIED: A “new, difficult-to-detect” remote access Trojan malware named “PingPull” has been identified, according to a new report by Palo Alto Networks’ Unit 42, which monitors cyber threats. The Trojan is being operated by a hacker unit called GALLIUM, which Unit 42 considers an “advanced persistent threat” that targets telecommunication companies in Southeast Asia, Europe and Africa. Over the past year, Unit 42 has found that GALLIUM also targeted financial institutions and government entities “across Afghanistan, Australia, Belgium, Cambodia, Malaysia, Mozambique, the Philippines, Russia and Vietnam.” “The group’s geographic targeting, sector-specific focus and technical proficiency, combined with their use of known Chinese threat actor malware and tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs), has resulted in industry assessments that GALLIUM is likely a Chinese state-sponsored group,” Unit 42’s new report read.
| | | AUSTIN IN THAILAND: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN’s Asia tour has taken him to Thailand to meet with Prime Minister and Minister of Defense PRAYUT CHAN-O-CHA. The leaders discussed increasing bilateral training and exercises, with Austin noting that the U.S. hopes to support the Thai military’s modernization efforts, according to a DoD readout. The meeting comes just after Austin’s appearance at the Shangri-La conference, where he expressed support for Taiwan’s “status quo” and pointed to China’s military activity near the island as threatening. China’s Defense Minister WEI FENGHE, however, responded at the same conference that it’s actually U.S. policy in the region that’s causing conflict. “We request the U.S. side to stop smearing and containing China,” Fenghe said at the dialogue. “Stop interfering in China’s internal affairs. The bilateral relationship cannot improve unless the U.S. side can do that.” SPOTTED: Former Trump national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN was awarded the Legion d'Honneur in Paris on Thursday at the Palais de la Legion d'Honneur with an intimate ceremony and luncheon hosted by French General of the Army BENOîT PUGA, Grand Chancellor of the Legion: LO-MARI O'BRIEN, French NSA EMMANUEL BONNE, ROGER CARSTENS, former U.S. Ambassador to the UAE JOHN RAKOLTA and TERRY RAKOLTA and JENNIFER ROMNEY and GINNY SIMMONS. | | | SENATE WEIGHS PENTAGON BOOST: Our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports that the Senate Armed Services Committee kicks off consideration of its version of the National Defense Authorization Act this week, and the panel will weigh whether to endorse a military budget beyond the $813 billion Biden requested. Armed Services Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.) said the top line likely "has to go up because [of] inflation." Reed and top Republican JIM INHOFE are working to build consensus on the budget. "We want to make sure we capture adequately inflation increases," Reed added. "And then the question of, Is there additional money we have to add for unfunded priorities?" SASC's seven subcommittees will hold markups on their portions of the NDAA today and tomorrow. Just two of those sessions, hosted by the Readiness and Personnel panels on Tuesday, will be public. The full committee marks up the bill behind closed doors on Wednesday. LEFT LOOKS TO SLASH DEFENSE: O’Brien also reports that progressive Democrats are pushing for an even bigger cut in the defense budget amid a fight over whether to give the Pentagon more money than it requested, again. A bill introduced today by Reps. BARBARA LEE (D-Calif.) and MARK POCAN (D-Wis.) would cut a whopping $100 billion from the more than $700 billion lawmakers allocated for fiscal 2022 for the Pentagon. Lee and Pocan, the co-founders of a caucus aimed at reducing the Pentagon budget, argue ballooning military spending is crowding out other urgent priorities. "It is time that we realign our priorities to reflect the urgent needs of communities across this country that are healing from a pandemic, ongoing economic insecurity, and an international energy crisis — none of which will be resolved through greater military spending," Lee said in a statement. "Taking this step to downsize our military budget by $100 billion will ensure that our national security truly centers on the American people, not weapons industry profits." The bill would give the Defense secretary discretion over the cuts, but urges him to consider a 2021 Congressional Budget Office report outlining options for a smaller military budget. It would maintain current spending levels of health and personnel accounts.
| | | ‘A GROWING GROUP OF APPEASERS’? A prominent retired general is warning that Washington’s resolve to stand up to Russia may be weakening. PHILIP BREEDLOVE, a former NATO supreme allied commander, said Monday during an Atlantic Council panel that this is not the time to back off American support for Ukraine. But some lawmakers and others are contemplating ways to avoid expending much more U.S. capital while pushing Ukraine to make concessions to Moscow. “I believe there is a growing group of appeasers in Washington, D.C.,” Breedlove said. “We are now, I believe, entering into a phase where we’re contemplating playing this game with Ukraine’s chips.” Some right-wing Republicans recently objected to a $40 billion aid package for Ukraine that otherwise garnered widespread bipartisan support. Russia is making slow and steady gains in eastern Ukraine, meaning that the United States should ramp up its efforts to arm and otherwise assist Kyiv, Breedlove said. “I believe that we need to have an immediate, focused push to resupply Ukraine,” Breedlove said. “The way we’ve been resupplying them is leaving them needing rather than having what they need to fight.” On the same panel, IVANNA KLYMPUSH-TSINTSADZE, chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary committee on the integration of Ukraine into the European Union, said she feared that neutrality talks reportedly proposed in an Italian four-part peace plan show signs of diminished Western resolve to confront the Kremlin. “Accepting neutrality would mean having slavery, or turning Ukraine into some part of the Russian Federation or some federal region of the Russian Federation,” she said.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — JOHN ALLEN is out as the president of the Brookings Institution. Allen has stepped down after being placed on administrative leave for an FBI probe into whether he was illegally lobbying for Qatar. Allen is a retired four-star Marine general. — CINTHYA HAGEMEIER is now senior communications officer for the Resettlement, Asylum and Integration U.S. program at the International Rescue Committee. She most recently was communications associate for the IMF.
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— JAMES P. MCGOVERN and JOHN PRENDERGAST, Just Security: “South Sudan: The Road to a Living Hell, Paved with Peace Deals”
— WILLIAM BREDDERMAN, The Daily Beast: “DOJ Antitrust Honchos Drew Millions From Google-Backed Groups” — WARREN STROBEL and GORDON LUBOLD, The Wall Street Journal: “ With Billions Going to Ukraine, Officials Warn of Potential for Fraud, Waste”
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— The U.S. Army Military District of Washington, 9:00 a.m.: “Wreath-laying ceremony to mark the Army's 247th birthday — with CHRISTINE WORMUTH, MICHAEL GRINSTON and JAMES MCCONVILLE”
— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Markup of the FY2023 National Defense Authorization Act” — The East-West Center in Washington, 10:00 a.m.: “ European-Democratic People's Republic of Korea Track II Engagement: Facilitating Dialogue and Diplomacy — with ESTHER IM, GLYN FORD and ROSS TOKOLA” — Senate Appropriations Committee, 10:00 a.m.: “ FY2023 budget for the Intelligence Community” — Book Discussion: The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10:00 a.m.: “Cyber Persistence Theory: Redefining National Security in Cyberspace — with EMILY GOLDMAN, RICHARD HARKNETT and MICHAEL FISCHERKELLER” — The Government Executive Media Group Defense One, 1:00 p.m.: “Seventh Tech Summit — with DAVE FREDERICK” — House Homeland Security Committee, 2:00 p.m.: “Reviewing DHS's Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention Grant Program — with KURT BRADDOCK, HUMERA KHAN, and PAUL KIM” — Senate Appropriations Committee, 2:00 p.m.: “FY2023 budget for the Treasury Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence and the Treasury Financial Crimes Enforcement Network — with WALLY ADEYEMO” — Closed Briefing: Senate (Select) Intelligence Committee, 2:30 p.m.: “ Intelligence Matters” — Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee, 3:00 p.m.: “Review of the FY2023 Budget and 2024 Advance Appropriations Requests for the Department of Veterans Affairs — with ROSCOE BUTLER, DENIS MCDONOUGH, PATRICK MURRAY and SHANE LIERMANN” — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 5:00 p.m.: “The Threat of Nuclear War: Four Decades after ‘The Day After’ — with JEFF DANIELS, SHARON WEINER and KATRINA VANDEN HEUVEL” — The Embassy of the Czech Republic and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 6:00 p.m.: “Press Freedom in the Age of Disinformation” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who never fails to provide Nahal with a comment.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
The LMXT aircraft delivers proven capabilities for the U.S. Air Force’s increasing aerial refueling missions. One of the LMXT’s discriminating capabilities is its refueling system, which includes a fly-by-wire aerial refueling boom. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
