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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman listens during his meeting. | Susan Walsh, File/AP Photo | With help from Betsy Woodruff Swan, Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint The Biden administration has declared, loudly and proudly, that America would pursue a “foreign policy for the middle class” while, at the same time, “putting human rights at the center of U.S. foreign policy.” But President JOE BIDEN ’s expected visit to Saudi Arabia, which would surely include a meeting with Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, shows you can have one or the other, but you can’t truly have both. Ask the administration, though, and they’ll say America can do it all. NatSec Daily spoke with a senior official who, without confirming the trip, said “our approach to Saudi Arabia more broadly shows we can carry out both of these charges simultaneously.” The evidence the official cited was the release of intelligence assessing that MBS, as the crown prince is known, approved the murder of U.S. resident and Washington Post journalist JAMAL KHASHOGGI (though that didn’t lead to a direct punishment of the royal); a two-month extension of a truce in the Yemen war that could save many lives; and OPEC’s agreement to increase oil supply. While human rights will always be “at the center of what we’re doing,” the official added, “we need our relationships to deliver for the American people.” In other words, the Biden administration calculated that it’s more important for Saudi Arabia to fill the energy gap left by Russia — potentially providing relief at the pump, domestically — while enticing it to move closer to Israel and keep countering Iran. It’s not so different from former President DONALD TRUMP’s decision , just days after Khashoggi’s killing in 2018, to accept Riyadh’s billions instead of severing ties. “I don’t like stopping massive amounts of money that’s being poured into our country,” he said at the time. Therein lies the tension between a middle class-focused and a human rights-centered foreign policy: To fully punish a nation for its abuses risks losing the strategic benefits of its partnership. The Biden administration tried to have it both ways until it needed Saudi Arabia again, moving issues of dignity to the fringes of the relationship. “Our goal is to see a stable supply of energy, and of course Saudi Arabia is a partner in that,” the senior administration official said about maintaining close ties to Riyadh, making sure to note that the U.S. is still “not in the business of divorcing our values from our interests.” The wisdom of the rapprochement depends on who you ask. Using Saudi Arabia to lower gas prices and secure geopolitical gains doesn’t have to be divorced from human rights promotion if the U.S. molds the wayward crown prince into a moral king. “Shaping young leaders into the types of decision makers America would like as partners takes mentoring, monitoring and shaping,” said KIRSTEN FONTENROSE , a former top Middle East official on Trump’s National Security Council. “There is no reason we can’t establish something akin to a private seminar series for MBS and the inner circle as well as other young leaders in the Gulf or elsewhere around the globe.” Others aren’t convinced. “The perverse part is that I don’t buy the administration’s argument that there’s a tradeoff with Saudi. MBS will pocket concessions and they’re not going to bring gas prices down much,” the Cato Institute’s JUSTIN LOGAN predicted. It was always hard to imagine that the U.S. would forever downgrade its relationship with Saudi Arabia. Throwing away 80 years of history over the grisly Khashoggi assassination was the least likely outcome, however immoral it may feel to admit. But to let Riyadh back into the inner circle for political expediency, when the initial vow was to make it a “pariah” on the world stage, underscores the misguided rhetoric of the administration’s initial intentions. “Biden’s decision shows that a ‘foreign policy for the November elections’ contradicts both the interests of the middle class and human rights,” said STEPHEN WERTHEIM, a senior fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
| | | UKRAINE SHOULD GET MIGS: The commanding general of the California National Guard is calling on U.S. and other Western officials to explore sending fighter jets to Ukraine “as soon as possible,” rekindling a longstanding request by Kyiv, our own LARA SELIGMAN reported. In a statement to POLITICO on Friday, Maj. Gen. DAVID BALDWIN California National Guard adjutant general, also said sending Soviet-era MiG fighters in the near term is the best “immediate solution.” “MiGs are the best immediate solution to support the Ukrainians, but U.S. or western fighters are options that should be explored as soon as possible,” Baldwin said. The comments come a day after Baldwin told reporters that U.S. military officials are working with Ukrainian counterparts on Kyiv’s request to Western nations for fighter aircraft to help repel the Russian invasion. Although a three-way deal to send U.S. F-16s to Poland if Warsaw provides MiGs to Ukraine fell apart in March, Guard officials are still “steering them” toward the Soviet-era planes in the near term. “There is a lot of goodness in them going to MiGs because they are already trained in that, but if they are going to use Western-type aircraft, it’s a discussion about numbers and types and capabilities of aircraft that may be available,” Baldwin said. ‘THE CITY IS ALREADY DEAD’: Russia’s brutal campaign in Ukraine’s east has trapped tens of thousands of civilians, our own CHRISTOPHER MILLER reported, but with evacuations scarce and risky, many locals are still in the line of fire. “As Russian forces pulverize everything in their path in a scorched-earth campaign to capture as much of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions as possible, eastern Ukraine has largely emptied out. Businesses are boarded up, traffic has disappeared and public squares are lifeless. But tens of thousands of people remain caught in the crossfire with nowhere to go as the battle for the Donbas grinds on. And they are paying a heavy price,” he wrote. “Life under Russian assault is measured in minutes, steps and millimeters; the difference between life and death here has narrowed to a sliver. Those who try to flee do so at great risk to their personal safety; some interviewed by POLITICO during a week of reporting along the frontline described being forced to dash down contested roads while under fire or crawl through fields littered with landmines,” he continued, As if you needed more, this exchange captures the horror more than most we’ve read: “We can never go back. There is nothing left there for us,” cried a woman brought to the Raihorodok staging area carrying several bags of clothing and possessions, her two young children in tow. “They are bombing everything. Our city is dying.” Her husband interjected: “No, the city is already dead.” A simply troubling development 100 days into the war. UKRAINE TO PROBE CHILD DEPORTATIONS AS POSSIBLE GENOCIDE: Allegations of the forcible deportation of children will be investigated as part of a potential genocide indictment, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General IRYNA VENEDIKTOVA told Reuters’ ANTHONY DEUTSCH and STEPHANIE VAN DEN BERG. “[W]e have more than 20 cases about forcible transfer of people" to Russia from multiple parts of Ukraine since the invasion, she said, adding that focusing on the children will help Ukraine make the best legal case against Russia and meet the high standard for what constitutes genocide. The exact number of victims is still unclear, though current official Ukrainian figures put the number of relocated children at around 210,000. In May, the Biden administration announced the formation of a new “Conflict Observatory” to assist Ukraine in the collection of evidence of potential war crimes committed by Russia. U.S. SAYS NORTH KOREA PREPARING NUCLEAR TEST: Pyongyang is preparing its seventh nuclear test, U.S. special representative for North Korea SUNG KIM said Friday, noting it will happen at the Punggye-ri site. The U.S. is “preparing for all contingencies” in coordination with South Korea and Japan, he added. The test has long been expected, with intelligence officials Seoul and Washington saying preparations were already underway and North Korea hinting strongly that such an event is coming. It’s unclear why Pyongyang needs to test another device because it’s already proven the ability to detonate the bomb, experts say. It simply might be North Korean leader KIM JONG UN attempting to look strong in the face of a Covid-19 outbreak in his country, or the dictator aiming to stay on top of America’s “to do” list, amid so many global crises. The test could also be viewed as part of North Korea’s increased rate of weapons testing this year, following a self-imposed moratorium on intercontinental ballistic missile tests. IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
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Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | ANOTHER SUSPICIOUS QUDS FORCE DEATH: Another member of Iran’s elite Quds force has died under suspicious circumstances, just weeks after an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) member was killed. “Col. ALI ISMAILZADEH was a member of the Quds Force, an elite guards unit in charge of foreign operations, according to affiliated social-media accounts. One of them, Sabreen News, said Col. Ismailzadeh was a ‘defender of the shrine,’ a catchall term used by Iranian media to describe the country’s soldiers fighting in Iraq and Syria,” The Wall Street Journal’s BENOIT FAUCON wrote. “A member of the IRGC had lost his life at his own house in an incident; so, relevant authorities are investigating the cause of the incident,” IRNA, the country’s official state news agency, reported. Some reports indicate he fell from his balcony, others that he was killed, and still others that he died by suicide. The cause remains unclear for now, but tensions are high following the assassination of Col. HASSAN SAYYAD KHODAEI in May.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– DHS INTEL SHOWED INCREASE IN RUSSIAN OPS BEFORE UKRAINE INVASION: Starting in September 2021, Russian state media ramped up its anti-Ukraine and anti-U.S. content, per an obtained Jan. 31 unclassified intelligence product from the Department of Homeland Security. DHS expected that those narratives would surely “intensify as the crisis over Ukraine worsens.” The five-page document, obtained by Property of the People via an open records request and shared exclusively with NatSec Daily, shows that Kremlin-linked media published 370 Ukraine-focused stories in November 2021, followed by 565 such stories in December and then 806 in January of this year. “Since November, Russian state media groups RT and Sputnik have consistently messaged that Russia has no intent to invade Ukraine and that the West fabricated the invasion story as an excuse for its own military buildup, as well as derogatory stories about NATO,” reads the assessment, which is labeled unclassified but “for official use only.” There’s more: “Russian proxy websites typically published articles with more misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation than Russian state media.… Russian proxy websites frequently published articles claiming US forces are deploying to Ukraine’s eastern front and US intelligence services are staging false-flag attacks in Ukraine to instigate conflict, as well as hyping a threat of conventional military attacks on US forces from Russian naval assets in the Black Sea,” the document reads. NatSec Daily also obtained a more updated DHS product, this one written on April 22, which says that Western efforts since the invasion have blunted the reach of Russian media. "This Western response impedes the ability of critical elements of Russia’s influence ecosystem to recruit and retain culturally adept media talent, shape in-country reporting, maintain a perception of media independence, and generate revenue. These setbacks affect multiple facets of RT’s and Sputnik’s operations, hampering the prospects for a speedy reconstitution of their Western-facing efforts," it reads. That success has come from the European Union banning those outlets, U.S.-based companies de-platforming Russian state-run media, and the resignations of some of their staff. Asked about these documents, a DHS spokesperson said that with Secretary of Homeland Security ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS at the helm, "DHS has enhanced operational collaboration with partners across every level of government, including by sharing timely and actionable information and intelligence regarding the threat environment to protect communities across our country.” Overall, nothing in these products are overly surprising. It tracks that Russia would escalate its dis/misinformation campaign ahead of the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine and that the West's crackdown would affect the Kremlin's propaganda efforts. But it’s rare to get a look into how any administration assesses these issues, especially during such a tense time.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | NEW GENERAL CONSIDERED FOR EUROPE: The U.S. Army has recommended that the White House appoint Lt. Gen. DARRYL WILLIAMS the next commander of U.S. Army Europe/Africa, two U.S. officials told our own PAUL McLEARY, a post at the forefront of U.S. efforts to shift ground forces along NATO’s eastern front with Russia, and as the alliance steps up military exercises from the Arctic to the Black Sea. If Williams is approved, he would be nominated for a fourth star and would become the first Black general to hold the position. An officer with multiple command tours in Europe already on his resume, Williams is currently superintendent at West Point, where in 2018 he made history as the first Black general to lead that institution. The change in command comes as the largest ground war in Europe since World War II rages in Ukraine and the alliance is set to undertake a series of high-level meetings this month to consider deeply transformational changes in where and how they shift posture across the continent to meet the continued threat from a bruised and unpredictable Russia. CONFEDERATE PORTRAIT COULD COME DOWN AT WEST POINT: A massive portrait of ROBERT E. LEE, the slave-owning Confederate general, could soon be coming down from the West Point library, our own SELIGMAN reported. “The commission that was established to rename military bases that honor Confederate generals is expected to recommend that West Point remove the 20-foot portrait of Lee in his gray Confederate uniform, according to two people familiar with the group’s deliberations,” she found out. The visage of the former superintendent of the school — before he fought against the Union — is all over that campus. As Seligman reported, there’s a separate portrait “gifted to the academy by the Daughters of the Confederacy in 1931 and displayed in the dining hall, depicts Lee in his blue U.S. military uniform.” “The commission will submit its recommendations, which have not yet been finalized, in a written report to Congress by Oct. 1, as mandated by the fiscal 2021 National Defense Authorization Act. Congress and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, the nation’s first Black defense secretary, must approve the recommendations,” per Seligman.
| | | LAWMAKERS WANT PLAN TO ADDRESS FOOD CRISIS: Seven House Democrats and Republicans want the Biden administration to clearly lay out its plan to stave off a food crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “We respectfully request that the Biden Administration also outlines its short-, medium-, and long-term strategic plan to identify, prioritize, and mitigate the potential impacts of the global food crisis on U.S. national security to safeguard our interests abroad,” the lawmakers, led by Reps. RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.) and CHRIS STEWART (R-Utah), wrote to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN Wednesday. “Such a plan is necessary to protect U.S. interests globally and to further support those most vulnerable in the growing food crisis.” Ask the administration what they’re doing about the food crisis and they point you to fact sheets and organized meetings . Inquire about a plan, though, and they … point you to fact sheets and organized meetings. Clearly, lawmakers are getting a similar runaround, leading members of both parties — including from the House Intelligence Committee — to request a detailed strategy. The other five signatories on the letter are: Reps. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), JIM COSTA (D-Calif.), VERONICA ESCOBAR (D-Texas), ADAM KINZINGER (R-Ill.) and ANDY LEVIN (D-Mich.).
| | | |   | | | | | | THE MILITARY PROBLEMS OF ‘TOP GUN: MAVERICK’: It’s Friday and everything’s terrible, so let’s have a little fun by highlighting FRED KAPLAN ’s stinging critique of the plot of “Top Gun: Maverick” in Slate. Spoiler Alert: If you haven’t seen the movie, skip past this section right now. We’ll understand. (We should say up front that we’re in the just-watch-the-movie-and-enjoy-it school of film criticism, regardless of the plot’s implausibility. But one of us also likes predicting how fictional military battles will play out, so Kaplan’s piece resonated.) Okay, but seriously, move along ye who haven’t gone to the theater. It’s Spoiler City down below. Here are his main gripes: — “[T]here’s no reason to destroy the uranium enrichment plant before it’s set up; it would take years to enrich enough uranium for a bomb, and there are many other ways to deal with the threat before then.” — “F/A-18s don’t have the range to pull off this stunt, especially at fuel-draining high speeds. — “[I]t would have been much easier simply to send a couple of B-2 bombers at very high altitude—beyond the reach of the enemy’s surface-to-air missiles—and fire a handful of GPS-guided smart bombs. Or if there was a chance the SAMs could shoot down a B-2, their radars could be blinded or tricked in a cyberattack.” — “Today, if a president ordered an attack on a foreign country’s uranium enrichment plant, the Pentagon would plan a joint operation; all the service chiefs would demand that they got a piece of the action. A single aircraft carrier would never be tasked with executing the entire mission, and any sensible attack plan would put the Air Force, with its high-flying bombers, and Cyber Command in the lead.” Look, all of this and more in Kaplan’s piece is fair. NatSec Daily will admit we had these thoughts, too. But we also enjoyed the movie immensely — as did the defense industry and military — and we hope you did, too.
| | | — GORDON TROWBRIDGE will take the role of acting assistant secretary of Defense for public affairs, coming over from the National Nuclear Security Administration. J. TODD BREASSEALE will be the acting top Pentagon's spokesperson. The moves follow JOHN KIRBY ’s change of scenery to the White House. — REBECCA GONZALES has been sworn in as director of the Office of Foreign Missions at the State Department. She is a career member of the Foreign Service and previously served as U.S. ambassador to Lesotho. — JOHN “J.T.” ICE is heading to the U.S. Naval War College for a year, where he'll be a student in the National Security and Strategic Studies MA program. He is a career Foreign Service Officer and most recently served as deputy spokesperson to NED PRICE at the State Department. — DOROTHY MCAULIFFE has been named special representative for global partnerships at the State Department. She previously served as first lady of Virginia. — JOAN POLASCHIK has been appointed to serve as director of the Foreign Service Institute at the State Department. She is a career member of the Senior Foreign Service and has served as acting FSI director since January.
| | | — OLEKSANDR STASHEVSKYI and FRANK BAJAK, The Associated Press: “Deadly Secret: Electronic Warfare Shapes Russia-Ukraine War” — DAVID ROTHKOPF, The Daily Beast: “How Biden Can Help Ukraine Win the Long War” — CHRISTIAN SHEPHERD, The Washington Post: “ 33 Years After Tiananmen, China Crushes Movements Before They Can Start”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — The U.S. hosts the ninth Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, with a focus on “Building a Sustainable, Resilient, and Equitable Future” for the hemisphere. — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 9 a.m.: “ Is It Wise to Push South Korea Toward China-Containment? — with JOON HYUNG KIM, JESSICA J. LEE, SARANG SHIDORE and ANDREW YEO” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Korea Foundation, 9:15 a.m.: “ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2022 — with VICTOR CHA, LEE GEUN, JOHN HAMRE, DANIEL J. KRITENBRINK, MARK LIPPERT and more” — Friends of the National World War II Memorial, 10 a.m.: “D-Day Observance at the World War II Memorial” — The Labor Department’s Veterans’ Employment and Training Service, 10 a.m.: “ Meeting of the Advisory Committee on Veterans Employment, Training, and Employer Outreach” — The United States Navy Memorial, 10 a.m.: “Wreath-Laying Ceremony in Honor of the 80th Anniversary of the Battle of Midway” — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “Fielding a Resilient Aerial Refueling Force — with MARK GUNZINGER, TODD HARRISON, JOHN ‘JV’ VENABLE and TIMOTHY A. WALTON” — Federal Computer Week, 1 p.m.: “Transforming Digital Defense — with SEAN FRAZIER, DOVARIUS PEOPLES and LAUREN C. WILLIAMS” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who while watching Top Gun: Maverick kept repeating (too loudly) “I can do that.”
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