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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Committee chair Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) confers with ranking member Jim Risch (R-Idaho) during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Capitol Hill March 10, 2022 in Washington, D.C. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | With help from Paul McLeary, Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint The Biden administration just put itself on a collision course with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee over an F-16 modernization sale to Turkey — a deal the top two panel members oppose. Speaking to reporters about America’s enhanced force posture in Europe (more on that below), Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Affairs CELESTE WALLANDER said the Pentagon “ fully supports Turkey’s modernization plans for its F-16 fleet,” which would amount to a $6 billion purchase of 40 Block 70 F-16 warplanes and about 80 Lockheed Martin modernization kits. The timing of the statement was curious, coming so shortly after Turkey ended its threats to block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO . But a senior administration official strongly denied any linkages: “[I]f the United States had gotten into the role of broker, then the question of what the U.S. itself was putting on the table would have become front and center.” Others NatSec Daily spoke to back the official’s account, saying there was never an explicit quid pro quo . Instead, there seemed to be a quiet understanding that if Turkey voted to let Sweden and Finland into the NATO club, then the relationship with the U.S. would improve, thus increasing the chances of a completed F-16 agreement. Nothing was said directly — it didn’t have to be, we’re told. Now there’s extra pressure on SFRC Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and ranking member JIM RISCH (R-Idaho). The Democrat is against the deal, mainly to punish Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN for his autocratic rule and turn toward Russia with the 2017 acquisition of the S-400 missile system. Turkey threatened to buy Russian-made fighter jets if the F-16 deal fell through, but Menendez claims Ankara is bluffing. “I am not deterred that they may go somewhere else,” Menendez said in November. “If they do so, then, you know, the interoperability gets diminished dramatically at NATO, and they further erode their position.” Risch still opposes the transfer but is slightly more open to it than his counterpart. “I’m positively disposed in that direction, but I’m not completely there yet,” he told Defense News’ BRYANT HARRIS last month. The question is if they’ll hold their ground now that President JOE BIDEN ’s team wants a deal and Turkey has, in a convoluted and self-serving way, done what the U.S. wanted. Neither Menendez nor Risch’s team would speak on the record for this story, so it’s possible they’re still working it all out.
| | | BIDEN BUILDUP: In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. announced during the NATO Summit that it will send “more destroyers, air defense systems and redeploy troops further east in the coming months,” our own PAUL McLEARY reported. Here’s what you need to know:
- An American brigade combat team will head to Romania as the first of what will be a new rotational American presence in the country, a capability that Bucharest has long requested. The U.S. Army will also further entrench itself in Poland, setting up a permanent V Corps headquarters, an Army garrison headquarters and a field support battalion there.
- The Pentagon said it will also “enhance its rotational deployments — which include armored, aviation, air defense, and special operations forces” — to the Baltic region, stage new air defense units in both Germany and Italy, and send two new F-35 squadrons to the U.K.
- Probably the biggest and most visible part of the new deployments will be two more Arleigh Burke-class destroyers that will be homeported in Rota, Spain, making a total of six U.S. warships capable of performing air defense missions and launching cruise missiles well inland. The destroyers will help patrol the Mediterranean where Russian cruisers and submarines have been more active over the last year, and provide missile defense for southern European allies.
First in NSD — Biden’s Baltic pledge still under discussion: News of the new Baltic deployments would clearly be welcomed in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which have donated tens of millions of dollars worth of weapons and supplies to Ukraine from their already limited stocks. American defense officials wouldn't provide more details on what the new American contributions might entail, and a top Estonian official said talks are still happening to iron out the particulars. “There are consultations ongoing but I cannot say exact numbers of troops they are planning to rotate to the Baltic countries,” TUULI DUNETON, Estonia’s defense policy chief told McLeary on the sidelines of the summit. “It's not only the troops, but also key capabilities that we are missing” that are likely heading for the region, including “air defense capabilities and long-range fires … so those are more than welcome in Estonia, because we do not possess those capabilities today.” Latvian Defense Minister ARTIS PABRIKS confirmed to McLeary that talks are underway about what the ramped-up U.S. support for the Baltics will mean, but he pointed to the establishment of the Army’s V Corps headquarters in Poland as being a big deal: Pabriks said they’ll be better able to coordinate exercises and the forward stationing of more weapons and heavy equipment in the Baltic countries. 89 PERCENT OF UKRAINIANS REJECT CEDING LAND TO RUSSIA: Nearly nine in 10 Ukrainians say “ні” to ceding any territory to Russia to strike a peace deal, per a new Wall Street Journal-NORC poll. “The survey was conducted June 9-13, just as Ukrainian hopes for success in the war were bolstered by promises from the U.S. to supply advanced, guided-rocket systems intended to match Russia’s superior artillery power. It was taken before Russia’s recent missile attacks on areas of relative calm, such as the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, and before Russian forces made significant advances toward their goal of controlling the full Donbas area,” The Wall Street Journal’s AARON ZITNER reported. Also: “[A] similarly large share, 81%, said their leaders shouldn’t negotiate peace by granting Russia parts of Ukraine it had seized earlier. That territory includes Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Russia invaded and annexed in 2014, and parts of the Donbas, where Russia has organized and led separatist movements that have gained control of much of the region.” Neither Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN nor Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY face any domestic pressure to end the war soon. As of today, they will fight until they can’t fight anymore. NOTE TO READERS: We know NATO's "Strategic Concept" came out today. We'll have a deeper dive into it tomorrow for you all. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu.
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F-35 production supports 298,000 advanced manufacturing jobs in America and generates an economic impact of more than $65 billion annually across U.S. communities. Learn more. | | | | | | SUDAN STRIKES ETHIOPIA: An Ethiopian official claims that Sudan shot heavy artillery into the country during skirmishes over the disputed al-Fashaqa territory. “Sudan’s army fired long-distance artillery from Monday morning until Tuesday afternoon, but nobody was injured, said ASSEFA ASHEGE, a senior security official in Ethiopia’s Amhara region,” Reuters’ DAWIT ENDESHAW reported. “The quarrel over al-Fashaqa, which lies within Sudan’s international boundaries but has been settled by Ethiopian farmers for decades, has escalated in recent years alongside a diplomatic spat over Ethiopia’s construction of a hydropower dam.” Now the African Union is calling for calm, saying Tuesday the group was concerned about “the escalating military tensions” between the two countries. Outside of the Sudan escalation, Ethiopia is still in a fight with anti-government rebels in the nearby Tigray region, though a ceasefire has largely held since March.
| | | NATO’S CYBER RESPONSE PROGRAM: NATO member countries on Wednesday agreed in Madrid to create a new program to quickly respond to cyberattacks, our own MAGGIE MILLER reported. The “virtual rapid response cyber capability” comes after months of Russian cyberattacks in Ukraine as part of the war and amid concerns that Moscow may target the United States and other NATO countries in retaliation for assistance to Ukraine. The program is voluntary. According to a fact sheet the White House released today, the U.S. will offer “robust national capabilities” to support this program. NATO also announced a separate package of cyber assistance to Ukraine. Neither NATO nor the White House immediately responded to questions about the scope of the new programs. In a new strategy document , NATO reaffirmed a 2021 commitment that a cyberattack could (but would not automatically) trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which would make it an attack against the alliance as a whole. It also pledged to work with the private sector to counter threats, formally recognized threats in cyberspace posed by Russia and China, and promised to update NATO’s command structure to reflect new cyber threats. Officials speaking prior to the strategy’s release on the condition that they not be identified told POLITICO that NATO’s new strategy will include over $1 billion to fund research into emerging technologies including quantum computing and artificial intelligence. CANADA’S MOUNTIES ADMIT SPYWARE USE: The national police force of Canada has described for the first time how it uses spyware to infiltrate mobile devices and collect data, reports our own MAURA FORREST — including by remotely turning on the camera and microphone of a suspect’s phone or laptop. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police says it only uses such tools in the most serious cases, when less intrusive techniques are unsuccessful. But until now, the force has not been open about its ability to employ malware to hack phones and other devices, despite using the tools for several years. Between 2018 and 2020, the RCMP said it deployed this technology in 10 investigations. The police agency outlined the techniques used by its Covert Access and Intercept Team in a document introduced in the House of Commons last week. The RCMP provided the information in response to a question from a Conservative MP about what government programs gather data from Canadians.
| | | GENERAL DYNAMICS WINS TANK CONTRACT: General Dynamics Land Systems won a $1.14 billion contract for its Mobile Protected Firepower program –– which, to be clear, is a tank. “The Mobile Protected Firepower vehicle, which will be the Army’s first new designed vehicle in over 40 years, will provide the Army’s infantry brigades with a light tank for directing firepower against enemy positions and bunkers on the battlefield. GDLS beat out BAE Systems,” Breaking Defense’s ANDREW EVERSDEN reported. The defense contractor has to build and deliver 96 of the tanks, providing the Army with 26 in the first go. “It’ll give the light infantry units a mobile, protected firepower that … can remove impediments on the battlefield to ensure our infantry women and men make it to the objective,” Maj. Gen. ROSS COFFMAN, director of the Next Generation Combat Vehicle Cross-Functional Team, told Eversden and other reporters. CLIMATE WAR: The Navy hosted a wargame on Wednesday to experiment how climate change could affect a conflict in 2030, MEREDITH BERGER, the Navy’s assistant secretary for energy, installations and environment told our own LEE HUDSON. DoD personnel, Hill staff, think tankers, non-governmental organizations and representatives from the defense industry were in attendance to observe how the Navy and Marine Corps operate when climate change effects are more frequent, intense and widespread. The exercise comes about one month after the Navy unveiled its climate strategy that aims at reducing the service’s greenhouse gas emissions. The results of the wargame will influence the service’s budget request and the service is working on how to incorporate climate efficiency into requirements for new weapons, Berger said.
| | | |   | | | | | | HIDDEN IN THE HOUSE NDAA: Our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and LAWRENCE UKENYE are out with a helpful list of all the lesser-known provisions you might’ve missed in the House Armed Services Committee’s version of the National Defense Authorization Act. Here are some of the panel’s biggest changes to Biden’s proposed Pentagon budget: — The committee adopted a proposal from Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) that would block the reduction of intercontinental ballistic missiles in the U.S. and continue to support the maintenance of those missiles. — The committee adopted a proposal from Rep. CHRISSY HOULAHAN (D-Penn.) to renew a federal grants initiative for small businesses to conduct research and development work through 2024. — The committee adopted a proposal from Rep. ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.) for the creation of the National Commission on the Future of the Navy, a panel that will report to policymakers on readiness and the potential need to field future capabilities. — The committee adopted a proposal from Rep. MICHAEL WALTZ (R-Fla.) authorizing the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to conduct joint military exercises with Taiwan. — The committee adopted proposals from Reps. ANTHONY BROWN (D-Md.) and SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.) aimed at studying medicinal marijuana and reviewing how the military punished marijuana-related offenses.
| | | HOSTAGE HELD IN IRAN ASKS BIDEN FOR HELP: SIAMAK NAMAZI, who’s been held hostage in Iran’s Evin Prison since October 2015, wrote an extraordinary appeal in the New York Times seeking Biden’s help to free him. “Risking a public appeal while caged in Iran’s notorious Evin Prison speaks volumes about the depth of my despair,” he wrote. “But I am compelled to break that silence now because I believe that the Biden administration’s approach to rescuing Americans in distress in Iran has failed spectacularly so far and unless the president intervenes immediately, we are likely to languish in this abyss for the foreseeable future.” Namazi, who’s the longest-held Iranian-American hostage in history, is incarcerated alongside three others: his father BAQUER NAMAZI, MORAD TAHBAZ and EMAD SHARGI. Namazi further implored that Biden set aside pushing for the hostages’ release just to reenter the Iran nuclear deal. NatSec Daily has spoken to many U.S. officials working on this, including special representative ROB MALLEY , all who say bringing the hostages home is top of mind and a key priority. Still, Namazi writes “from what I can surmise from behind these bars, the Biden administration is ignoring the plight of American detainees and making our freedom dependent on how the unpredictable nuclear discussions end.” We asked the White House if it had any response to the criticism, but we didn’t hear back before publishing.
| | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ANDREW SANDERS has left the White House, where he served as director for Brazil and the southern cone at the National Security Council. An Army officer, he is leaving the military and will retire next March. — JOHN RATCLIFFE is joining American Global Strategies as a senior adviser. He’ll work with the firm’s clients across the defense, aerospace, technology, cybersecurity and private equity sectors. He previously served as director of national intelligence in the Trump administration.
| | | — FARNAZ FASSIHI and RONEN BERGMAN, The New York Times: “Israel’s Spies Have Hit Iran Hard. In Tehran, Some Big Names Paid the Price.” — DANIEL MICHAELS and DREW HINSHAW, The Wall Street Journal: “Russia’s War in Ukraine Drives a Quantum Leap in NATO Weaponry” — JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: “The Supreme Court has undermined U.S. credibility on human rights”
| | | — Biden will participate in the NATO summit in Madrid, attending the third session of the meeting of the North Atlantic Council. He will then hold a news conference and return to Washington, D.C. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: “The Capital Cable: 2022 NATO Summit — with VICTOR CHA, MARK LIPPERT and SUE MI TERRY” — Defense Department, 10 a.m.: “Meeting of the Uniform Formulary Beneficiary Advisory Panel” — The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: “Will the War in Ukraine Push Iran and Russia to Compete? — with HAMIDREZA AZIZI, ABDOLRASOOL DIVSALLAR, DIANA GALEEVA and JAKUB M. GODZIMIRSKI” — The United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: “ Preventing Conflict Amid the Global Food Crisis — with ABDI AYNTE, JOHNNIE CARSON, ISOBEL COLEMAN, LISE GRANDE, ARIF HUSAIN and HANEEN SAYED” — Red Hat and Intel, 1 p.m.: “Accelerating Government Digitization: Safeguarding the Digital World — with KENNETH BIBLE, JOHN DVORAK, STEVEN HERNANDEZ and CAMILLE TUUTTI” — GCN, 2 p.m.: “What Governments Should Know About Cyber Insurance and Ransomware Attacks — with BRIAN GARDNER and RITA REYNOLDS” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: “Advancing LGBTQIA+ Rights via U.S. Foreign Policy — with HADEIL ALI, STEPHEN CHUKWUMAH, MARTI FLACKS , JAY GILLIAM, CHLOE SCHWENKE and JESSICA STERN” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who is shocked — SHOCKED! — by the timing of what is definitely not a quid pro quo.
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