|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward , Nahal Toosi and Quint Forgey | | 
The head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service, Richard Moore, said he was “skeptical” Iran would accept the renewal of the dying nuclear deal. | Matt Dunham/AP Photo | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint NatSec Daily is in Aspen, Colorado for the second full day of the Aspen Security Forum. Three main items stuck out to us: A top British intelligence official said Iran’s supreme leader doesn’t want to revive the nuclear deal, a Democratic lawmaker worried American support for Ukraine is (slowly) collapsing, and a senior Bahraini official didn’t say “no” when asked if his country would go to war with Iran over its nuclear development. MI6 CHIEF ‘SKEPTICAL’ IRAN WANTS NUKE DEAL: The head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service said he was “skeptical” Iran would accept the renewal of the dying nuclear deal. “I’m skeptical that the supreme leader will go for the deal,” RICHARD MOORE, the MI6 chief, told CNN’s JIM SCIUTTO at the forum. While an agreement is on the table and he says China and Russia won’t block the move, Moore added “I don't think the Iranians want it.” Among those worried about the road ahead on Iran is former Deputy Secretary of State STEPHEN BIEGUN, who spoke to our own NAHAL TOOSI in Aspen. Biegun served as the State Department’s No. 2 during the Trump administration, but he’s a well-regarded figure among Democrats as well as Republicans. He’s not a fan of the 2015 nuclear deal, nor is he a fan of Iran’s destabilizing actions in the Middle East. Still, he says, “there’s not a really very honest debate about what the alternative is to a deal” in U.S. foreign policy and national security circles, and “that is something that all of us bear responsibility for.” President JOE BIDEN ’s assertion that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon is a “pretty strong statement,” especially if there’s no serious Plan B on the horizon, Biegun said. “If there’s no [deal], then the president is essentially making a threat to end the Iranian nuclear program through the use of force,” Biegun said. “If we’re going to make that kind of threat … there should be a lot more preparation, a lot more organization, to deliver on that.” What could a Plan B look like? Biegun listed options, such as: greenlighting Israeli attacks on Iran’s program; putting together a coalition of states, including Arab Gulf states, to stand up to Tehran; a fuller implementation of the sanctions-heavy Trump-era “maximum pressure” plan; or other, more covert measures. “I don’t know what the answer is, but if we’re going to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon considering how close they are, that’s a pretty important debate that we should be having,” he said. DEM WARNS ABOUT WANING UKRAINE SUPPORT: Rep. BRENDAN BOYLE (D-Pa.), a member of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, warned that “the shock has worn off” after five months of war in Ukraine, moving lawmakers to have to defend America’s continued support for Kyiv amidst mounting problems at home. Congress has not “turned a corner” on lawmakers abandoning Ukraine’s cause, the lawmaker continued, “but at the same time, I would very much caution anyone who assumes that this unity will last forever and that the support of the American people will last forever.” Boyle, who represents a fairly Democratic district in Philadelphia, said he’s seeing memes from apolitical people about rising gas prices and empty shelves, complaining that it’s happening as the U.S. sends billions in support to Ukraine’s military and government. He fears that about “a third” of Republican lawmakers, which he said reflects the “activists, Trumpist base,” are pushing an “isolationist” and “populist” view that leads them to question America’s continued backing of Ukraine. “As long as we have this inflation crisis in the West, including the United States, that movement will grow,” Boyle said. BAHRAIN MIGHT JOIN WAR AGAINST IRAN: While many expect military action against Iran to include Israel, one of Israel’s newest friends might be willing to come along for the ride. At least, that was the implication of what Bahrain’s undersecretary for political affairs, ABDULLA AL KHALIFA, said during one Aspen panel today. When pressed by JEFFREY GOLDBERG, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, whether Bahrain would join such a campaign, Al Khalifa notably did not say “no.” “Obviously, dealing with the matter diplomatically is a priority,” Al Khalifa said, adding that, nonetheless, Iran’s ongoing development of a nuclear program is negatively affecting the region. “I’ll take that as an ambiguous maybe. Is that fair?” Goldberg asked. “Fair,” the Bahraini official said.
| | | PELOSI PRESSURES BLINKEN: Pelosi warned Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN on a call this week that Congress would designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism if the State Department didn’t move to do so, report our own Alex and BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN . Congress gave the power to label another country as a state sponsor of terrorism to the secretary of State. Some in Congress, though, say lawmakers could pass a law to make the designation without the State Department, thus pressuring Putin on their own. Sens. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) and RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.), for example, introduced a bill in May that would underline the Senate’s view that Russia engages in acts of terrorism and call on Blinken to make the designation official. A similar resolution has been introduced in the House, and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY supports the U.S. slapping the label on Russia. Pelosi confirmed POLITICO’s report today, telling our own ANDREW DESIDERIO that a state sponsor designation for Russia is “long overdue,” adding: “I’ve been advocating it for four months, at least.” PUTIN ‘ENTIRELY TOO HEALTHY’: CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS gave a glowing assessment of Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s physical well-being Wednesday at the Aspen Security Forum, reports our own NAHAL TOOSI . “As far as we can tell, he’s entirely too healthy,” Burns said of Putin, adding that his statement was “not a formal intelligence judgment.” Burns’ remarks, which could dampen hopes among Putin’s adversaries that his demise is near, came after Putin visited Iran on Tuesday. In Aspen, Burns indicated that the Iranian regime should rethink any decision to give drones to Putin to use against Ukraine. At the same time, Burns said that the fact that Putin is turning to Iran for such weaponry is a sign of the weakness of Russia’s own defense sector. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @ChristopherJM , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu .
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.
Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | BIDEN QUESTIONS PELOSI’S TAIWAN TRAVEL: Asked Wednesday about Speaker NANCY PELOSI’s planned trip to Taiwan, President JOE BIDEN said the U.S. military “thinks it’s not a good idea right now” but added that he doesn’t know “what the status of it is,” reports our own OLIVIA OLANDER . Biden also said he expects to speak with Chinese President XI JINPING over the next 10 days. Beijing sharply opposes Pelosi visiting Taiwan; a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the trip would negatively affect U.S.-China relations. Pelosi’s potential trip next month would be the first visit to Taiwan by a House speaker in 25 years, since Newt Gingrich traveled there. It’s not clear whether Biden’s words will result in Pelosi canceling or rescheduling her trip. CHINA’S ENVOY REFRAMES RUSSIA RELATIONSHIP: Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. QIN GANG, speaking Wednesday at the Aspen Security Forum, sought to walk back his country’s declaration of a “no limits” partnership with Russia amid the invasion of Ukraine, reports our own MYAH WARD . In a February statement, China and Russia expressed opposition to NATO expansion and declared that there are “no forbidden areas of cooperation” between the two countries. But Qin said Wednesday that “this is a misunderstanding of China-Russia relations,” adding that the “China-Russia relationship is not an alliance.” Qin said China is not interested in “confrontation” and that both China and Russia share a common rejection of the “Cold War mentality” allegedly propagated by the U.S. Qin also refused to describe Russia’s war on Ukraine as an invasion, instead referring to it as a “crisis.”
| | | SUSPECTED CHINESE SPY GEAR STILL IN U.S. NETWORKS: Small communications networks across the U.S., largely in rural areas, are saddled with old Chinese equipment they can’t afford to remove and can’t repair if it breaks, reports our own JOHN HENDEL . Although the networks want to ditch the Chinese tech, promised funds from Congress aren’t coming quickly enough and aren’t sufficient to cover the cost. U.S. security officials have warned under both the Trump and Biden administrations that two Chinese companies in particular — Huawei and ZTE — are a major national security risk. They have pointed to a potential for spying and foreign meddling if their routers, antennas and radios aren’t yanked out of U.S. cell phone and internet networks. Caught in the middle of the U.S.-China wrangling are nearly 200 U.S. carriers that embedded parts from these Chinese telecom giants into their operations. That includes rural wireless networks and providers of broadband internet and TV, a handful of universities and school districts and even city governments. Meanwhile, Reuters’ ALEXANDRA ALPER reports today that the Biden administration is investigating Huawei over concerns that U.S. cell towers fitted with its gear could capture sensitive information from military bases and missile silos that the company could then transmit to China.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– MILLEY HEADS TO THE PACIFIC: Gen. MARK MILLEY, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is headed out today on a nine-day trip to the Pacific, his spokesperson COL. DAVE BUTLER told NatSec Daily. The chairman will visit Australia as well as other countries in the neighborhood, Butler said, declining to specify where else the nation’s top general is headed. In Australia, Milley will meet with other chiefs of defense from the region in Sydney where they will likely discuss China and the nuclear submarine consortium known as AUKUS, among other issues.
| | | MILLEY MEETS SPARTZ: More Milley news: He met with Rep. VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.) at her Longworth office Wednesday, report our own ANDREW DESIDERIO , LARA SELIGMAN and CONNOR O’BRIEN . The sit-down comes as officials in the Biden administration, as well as Spartz’s fellow lawmakers, are raising concerns about her intense criticisms of Ukraine’s leadership. Republican lawmakers have warned that her comments could harm the war effort and aid disinformation campaigns. Spartz — the first and only Ukrainian-born member of Congress — received a classified briefing from intelligence officials last week who told her that her accusations had no merit, per people familiar with the session. The fact that Milley visited Spartz suggests the administration is deeply worried about her continued effort to undermine confidence in Zelenskyy’s government.
| | | |   | | | | | | ACTIVISTS SLAM SMITHSONIAN’S HONG KONG TIES: Exiled Hong Kong pro-democracy activists are demanding that local institutions in Washington, D.C. — starting with the Smithsonian — sever close ties to the territory’s official representatives, report our own NICOLLE LIU and PHELIM KINE . Activists want the National Museum of Asian Art to cancel the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office’s sponsorship of the museum’s ongoing Hong Kong Film Festival , warning that they will name and shame any other local entity that partners with HKETO. The D.C. efforts are just a warm-up for a nationwide drive to brand official Hong Kong tourism, business and cultural outreach as propaganda for a repressive regime. Activists point to HKETO as the chief lobbyist against the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which stalled after passing the House in 2019.
| | | — ROBERT O’BRIEN is the new chair of the board of directors of the Richard Nixon Foundation. He previously served as national security adviser in the Trump administration. — MELISSA SOWERWINE has been named director of global business development at IT and cybersecurity training company Ultimate Knowledge Institute. She most recently was director of business development at IDS International.
| | | — SHADI HAMID, The Atlantic: “ The Allies Who Are Happy to Humiliate America ” — JACK SNYDER, Foreign Affairs: “ Why the Human Rights Movement Is Losing ” — JARED MALSIN and ELVAN KIVILCIM, photographs by AHMED DEEB, The Wall Street Journal: “ Drones, Unmanned Boats and Killer Robots Have Made Turkey an Arms-Industry Powerhouse ”
| | | — The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: “ Iran and Gulf States: What if There Is No New Nuclear Deal? — with NORMAN ROULE, MOHAMMAD AL SULAMI, ALEX VATANKA and AZADEH ZAMIRIRAD” — The National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, 10 a.m.: “ Evaluating the Impact of President Biden’s Visit to the Middle East — with JOHN DUKE ANTHONY, ABBAS DAHOUK, MICHAEL GFOELLER, DAVID RUNDELL and ABDULAZIZ SAGER” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who says “it’s not a good idea right now” for us to have more control over this newsletter.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.
Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
