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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
In this image released by the Saudi Royal Palace, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, greets President Joe Biden with a fist bump after his arrival at Al-Salam palace in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Friday, July 15, 2022. | Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint JEDDAH — This is the way Saudi Arabia’s pariah status ends. Not with a bang, but with a fist bump. The world’s most anticipated knuckle touch between President JOE BIDEN and Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN happened minutes after Air Force One touched down here, ending the royal’s global freezeout in the bro-iest way possible. It was a moment the administration wished Biden could avoid but quickly realized was going to be impossible, given that the president obliterated his doctors’ Covid precautions with a Jerusalem hugfest. Yet the White House figured the short-term pain was worth the long-term gain: In exchange for some bad PR, the U.S. would rekindle its historic friendship with Saudi Arabia while promoting Israel’s regional integration and securing its own interests. The visit has delivered some results. Most notably, Saudi Arabia opened its airspace to all civilian aircraft, paving the way for Israeli carriers to fly over the country on the way to eastern destinations. The policy change led to the first direct flight from Israel to Jeddah — Alex was on that White House-chartered plane — and allowed Biden to be the first president to travel direct from Israel to Saudi Arabia. U.S. and Israeli officials believe this move could kickstart a process that ultimately results in a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel — though none would say such an outcome is imminent, or that Riyadh is soon going to rival Dubai as a vacation spot for Israelis. “This decision paves the way for a more integrated, stable, and secure Middle East region, which is vital for the security and prosperity of the United States and the American people, and for the security and prosperity of Israel,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said in a statement following the announcement. Beyond that, the U.S. dropped some other deliverables: Saudi Arabia committed to extending the ceasefire in the war it started against Yemen; Israel and Saudi agreed to remove multinational peacekeepers, including American ones, from Tiran island; a partnership between companies on 5G and the development of 6G; the deeper integration of Iraq in the Gulf Cooperation Council; and cooperation agreements on cybersecurity, space exploration and public health. It’s certainly not everything Biden’s team wanted. The president came in large part to convince Riyadh it needed to open the oil tap and help bring down global gas prices (but primarily in the U.S. — there’s a midterm coming, after all). The White House hopefully announced that “Saudi Arabia has committed to support global oil market balancing for sustained economic growth,” but there won’t be a big agreement during this trip. The expectation is that the kingdom, which nominally leads the OPEC+ oil consortium, will start producing 750,000 barrels per day in September, with the United Arab Emirates adding on 500,000 barrels of its own. Biden also said he brought up the murder of JAMAL KHASHOGGI at the top of the meeting with MBS, asserting he was "straightforward and direct" with the man the U.S. intelligence community says orchestrated the killing. In a following news conference, Biden warned that if anything like that assassination happened again, Riyadh would suffer yet another tough response from the U.S. "and much more." And while there’s another day to go, it’s unclear if Biden can convince Saudi leadership to release some or all of the American hostages held in the kingdom, or get Riyadh to greenlight Israeli Muslims’ travel to Mecca for the hajj. Still, based on the body language NatSec Daily has seen in Jeddah, both parties already regard the first day as a success. The crown prince is no longer persona non grata and the U.S. regained a foothold in the Middle East while pushing Saudi Arabia and Israel closer together. For that alone, there might be more fist bumps — but out of public view.
| | | BIDEN MAKES HIS PITCH TO THE PALESTINIANS: Before arriving in Saudi Arabia, Biden spent the majority of the day in the West Bank with the express goal of rekindling a relationship that has deteriorated since the Trump administration. On Thursday night, the White House released a fact sheet announcing $316 million in incentives to improve life for Palestinians. The largest chunk consisted of $201 million for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, known as UNRWA, which provides refugee services in the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan and more. Trump ended the decadeslong assistance in 2018 , which critics at the time argued was designed to place pressure on Palestinians to reach a peace deal with Israelis. That deal, of course, didn’t happen — but the move blew a budgetary hole in the agency; the U.S. accounts for about 30 percent of its funding. With this new aid, the Biden administration ups its total provided to $618 million since the start of 2021. Friday early morning, Biden spoke alongside Palestinian Authority President MAHMOUD ABBAS in Bethlehem to “reinvigorate” the near-dead peace process. “I hope our visit is the start of a new, reinvigorated dialogue,” he said in a joint address alongside Abbas, noting his preference for a deal consistent with 1967 borders, mutually agreeable land swaps and a contiguous Palestinian state. “I know that the goal of two states seems so far away, while indignities like restrictions on the movement of travel or the daily worry of your children’s safety are real and they are immediate. The Palestinian people are hurting now. You can just feel it, your grief and frustration.” He conceded, however, that “the ground is not ripe at this moment to restart negotiations,” though he vowed his administration would help to facilitate negotiations between both sides if the situation changed. Some Palestinians protested Biden’s visit, citing their frustrations about the coziness between the U.S. and Israel. To date, Biden hasn’t put much stock in trying to broker a peace deal that has eluded American, Israeli and Palestinian leaders for decades. He’s still not going to delve super deeply, but his visit was an opening bid to say “if you’re willing to start up again, we’ll be there.” Let’s see if it works. ‘YEARS’ UNTIL IRAN GETS A WORKABLE NUKE: It would take Iran a “couple of years” to make a functioning nuclear weapon that could reliably detonate upon reaching a faraway target, an Israeli official told Alex while he was in Jerusalem. Iran has enriched uranium to around 60 percent, short of the 90 percent weapons-grade level but far above the cap established in the nuclear deal the U.S. withdrew from four years ago. If Tehran wanted to, and it’s not clear that it does (the official said it would be “extremely risky” of Iran to do so), it could reach the 90-percent threshold within “weeks,” the U.S. and other Western governments say. But making an actual nuclear weapon is a whole other thing — and per this official, the making-a-bomb timeline is much longer. “Don’t think they can get to a nuclear weapon tomorrow. It’ll take them a couple of years,” the Israeli said, clarifying that weaponization would take more than a year without including perfecting delivery systems and missiles. In Jerusalem on Thursday, Biden reiterated his stance that a return to the Iran nuclear deal was the “best way” to avert Tehran’s acquisition of the bomb. But he also warned that he would authorize military force as a last resort to avoid that outcome. Caretaker Prime Minister YAIR LAPID was bolder, saying the West should commit to using force to eradicate Iran’s nuclear program. Beyond that, the official said the Middle East air-defense proposal Biden is pushing is a “nascent” process that will take “years” to complete. Some cooperation is already happening, but the idea — Israel and regional countries sharing intelligence and using integrated system to mainly thwart Iranian drones and missiles — will take quite some time to finalize. CHINA LOOMS OVER BIDEN’S SAUDI VISIT: Yes, Biden is in Saudi Arabia to repair a relationship damaged by the murder of JAMAL KHASHOGGI and the cold shoulder the president gave Riyadh for 18 months. But he’s also here in Jeddah to fend off China’s increased influence in the Middle East. The presidential stiff arm “fueled doubts in Riyadh about U.S. reliability, boosting China’s efforts to position itself as a rising superpower alternative,” reports our own PHELIM KINE. “The United States has been somewhat missing in action, has called [Saudi Arabia] a pariah and several administrations have said there’s a need to pivot towards Asia, inferentially meaning away from the Middle East,” said ROBERT JORDAN , former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia and diplomat in residence at Southern Methodist University told Kine. “That makes it more attractive for them to turn to their largest customer as a country of considerable influence. China also has the added benefit of not lecturing the country on human rights.” China filled the vacuum as Riyadh controlled energy resources Beijing desperately needed. All China really had to do was not criticize Saudi Arabia over human rights (which of course suited Beijing just fine). Biden will hope his presence, and a return to close U.S.-Saudi ties, will signal to Riyadh that its best friend is in Washington — not Beijing. IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin and Airbus announced the LMXT’s boom will be manufactured in Arkansas, reinforcing that the LMXT will be built in America for Americans by Americans. Learn more. | | | | | | 2 WORLD LEADERS TRIED TO RESIGN. BOTH FAILED: Two heads of government — Italian Prime Minister MARIO DRAGHI and Sri Lankan President GOTABAYA RAJAPAKSA — resigned their posts Thursday, but both men aren’t officially out of their jobs. Draghi vowed to step down after the Five Star party withdrew from Italy’s ruling coalition, a move that followed disagreements over whether to arm Ukraine and how to help citizens fend off the effects of inflation. But Italian President SERGIO MATTARELLA refused to accept the resignation Thursday night, throwing Rome into political turmoil. Meanwhile, Rajapaksa — who protesters desperately want booted for his economic mismanagement — fled to Singapore and resigned in an email to the country’s parliamentary speaker. But the authenticity of the email is in question, and even if it is real, it’s unclear whether a Sri Lankan president can abdicate via an online letter.
| | | ‘ENDEMIC’ LOG4J: The U.S. government cyber-focused board assesses the vulnerabilities in the log4j code library are “endemic,” meaning that hundreds of millions of devices that use it could be attacked for years to come. “The Log4j event is not over,” wrote the Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) in its first report. This issue continues to roil the cybersecurity community as a debate reignited over how to safeguard open-source software. The CRSB, which was created by an executive order from Biden, took aim at this issue. “The event also called attention to security risks unique to the thinly-resourced, volunteer-based open source community. This community is not adequately resourced to ensure that code is developed pursuant to industry-recognized secure coding practices and audited by experts. To reduce recurrence of the introduction of vulnerabilities like Log4j, it is essential that public and private sector stakeholders create centralized resourcing and security assistance structures that can support the open source community going forward,” the board wrote.
| | | ENGINE TROUBLE: The F-35 fighter jet has an engine problem, but fixing it is going to be an even bigger mess. “The service is planning to put more power and cooling ability on the F-35” because of all the new advanced systems on it, Defense News’ STEPHEN LOSEY reports. “One approach is making a series of upgrades to the existing Pratt & Whitney-made F135 engine currently powering the F-35 through the Enhanced Engine Program. Another potential path is an entirely new replacement engine using cutting-edge technology such as a third stream of air to improve fuel efficiency and thrust. Pratt & Whitney and General Electric Aviation have each developed competing versions as part of the Adaptive Engine Transition Program, known as AETP.” “Officials from the Air Force and Defense Department so far have not decided whether the F-35 will receive a new adaptive engine or an upgraded F135,” per Losey. At stake is not only the effectiveness of a warplane that has cost a lot of time and money to produce, but billions of dollars for a certain sector of the defense industry.
| | | HOUSE APPROVES $839B NDAA: The House passed sweeping defense policy legislation Thursday, marking the second straight year that both Democrats and Republicans endorsed significant increases to Biden’s Pentagon spending plan, report our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and LAWRENCE UKENYE. The $839 billion National Defense Authorization Act is $37 billion more than the administration sought in military spending. The bill also rebukes several of Biden’s national security plans: Members maintained a nuclear cruise missile the administration planned to scrap, hampered F-16 sales to Turkey, and limited the number of aircraft and ships the Pentagon can retire. The final House NDAA includes billions of dollars for more aircraft and ships than the Pentagon sought. Republicans and a sizable number of Democrats saw Biden’s request — already a $30 billion increase from the current year — as not enough to keep up with runaway inflation and match challenges posed by China and Russia. In a bipartisan blowout, 180 Democrats and 149 Republicans joined forces to pass the legislation. War powers: Lawmakers agreed to rein in several decades-old presidential war powers as part of the bill. Most notably it rolls back the 2002 Iraq War authorization, which has passed the House several times but hasn't yet seen action in the Senate. Hitching a ride: Other proposals with no connection to defense were wrapped into the bill — including Rep. ED PERLMUTTER's (D-Colo.) cannabis banking legislation and bipartisan proposal from Reps. MIKIE SHERRILL (D-N.J.), Democratic Caucus Chair HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-N.Y.) and others to eliminate the federal sentencing disparity between drug offenses for powder and crack cocaine.
| | | |   | | | | | | GOP COLLEAGUES CRINGE AT SPARTZ: Inside the House Republican Conference, there’s widespread concern that the recent criticisms of Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY by Rep. VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.) are damaging U.S.-Ukraine relations at the worst possible time — and that she’s being played by forces aiming to weaken the Western alliance, report our own ANDREW DESIDERIO and OLIVIA BEAVERS. Republican national-security hawks also worry that the MAGA wing of their party, where there’s already resistance to aiding Ukraine, will point to the comments from the first-term, Ukrainian-born lawmaker as justification for their views. Furthermore, they fear that Spartz’s public break from Zelenskyy — and her corruption accusations about his closest aides — could portend future cracks in U.S. support for Ukraine, especially as the midterm elections approach. “Her naiveness is hurting our own people.… It is not helpful to what we’re trying to do, and I’m not sure her facts are accurate … We have vetted these guys,” said a Republican lawmaker who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Asked for comment on Spartz’s remarks, one senior House Republican replied bluntly: “What the fuck.” In a written statement, Spartz showed no sign of regret: “Growing up in Ukraine and visiting six times since the war started, I have a comprehensive understanding of the situation on the ground. The stakes are too high to be reactive without deliberation — as intended for our institution.” EXPERTS SLAM BIDEN-SISI MEETING: The Biden-MBS meeting isn’t the only one some people are worrying about. The Working Group on Egypt, a group of U.S.-based experts focused on the relationship between Cairo and Washington, is imploring Biden to bring up human rights when meeting Egyptian President ABDEL FATTAH AL-SISI in Jeddah on Saturday. “Your emphasizing human rights concerns with al-Sisi would advance U.S. national interests in two ways. First, it would lend credence to your leadership of what you have called the global ‘battle between democracy and autocracy, between liberty and repression,’” the experts, led by chair AMY HAWTHORNE of the Project on Middle East Democracy, wrote to Biden . “Second, al-Sisi’s resurgent repression poses a threat to Egypt’s stability and to stability in the region,” they argue, because “regimes that govern cruelly and without accountability breed alienation and discontent that can eventually tip into popular unrest, or worse.” Asked in Israel if he would bring up human rights during his MBS encounter, Biden said “I always bring up human rights.” Biden will meet with Sisi as one of his three bilats Saturday; the other two are with the UAE’s Sheik MOHAMMED BIN ZAYED AL NAHYAN and Iraqi Prime Minister MUSTAFA AL-KADHIMI. After that he’ll join the Gulf Cooperation Council and three other nations for a three-hour meeting before flying back to the U.S. We’ll be watching to see if he does, indeed, bring up human rights.
| | | — SHON MANASCO has joined Palantir as a senior counselor focused on air, space and international government work. He previously served as acting undersecretary of the Air Force and assistant secretary of the Air Force for manpower and reserve affairs in the Trump administration. — EVA A. MILLONA has been promoted to serve as the inaugural chief of the Office of Citizenship, Partnership, and Engagement at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. BRENDA ABDELALL has been promoted to fill Millona’s most recent role as assistant secretary for partnership and engagement at the Department of Homeland Security. Abdelall most recently served as principal deputy assistant secretary for partnership and engagement and previously served as chief of staff in the Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties at DHS. — JON STEWART has been tapped to host the 2022 Department of Defense Warrior Games Opening and Closing Ceremonies, which will be produced by Disney Live Entertainment and take place next month at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex at Walt Disney World Resort. He has hosted the Warrior Games’ marquee events since 2015.
| | | — CAROL E. LEE, COURTNEY KUBE and ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC News: “ Months of Intense Lobbying Persuaded Biden to Go to Saudi Arabia, Sources Say” — PATRICK KINGSLEY, The New York Times: “A New Palestinian Leader Rises in the West Bank. He’s Very Unpopular.” — ANASTASIIA CARRIER, POLITICO Magazine: “I Once Supported Putin. Now I Know the Truth.”
| | | — The Royal United Services Institute, 8 a.m.: “Royal New Zealand Air Force Chief on the Future South Pacific Operating Environment — with ANDREW CLARK and PAUL O’NEILL” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: “Chinese Military Lessons from Ukraine — with EVAN FEIGENBAUM, CHARLES HOOPER, BONNY LIN and JOEL WUTHNOW” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10:30 a.m.: “USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER on the State of Global Food Security and Nutrition — with MARIAMA DIALLO, WILLIAM MOORE, CATHERINE RUSSELL and CAITLIN WELSH” — The Royal United Services Institute, 11 a.m.: “ Plotting Terror: CST’s New UK Terrorism Databases and Challenges in Assessing Terror Threats — with ERAN BENEDEK, SUZANNE RAINE and EMILY WINTERBOTHAM” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: “The State of the Special Relationship: Four Years at the Heart of U.K.-U.S. Defense — with EDWARD FERGUSON and JAKE HARRINGTON” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: “Maritime Security Dialogue: A Discussion with the Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps — with PETER DALY, SETH JONES and ERIC SMITH” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who also has attempted to resign in vain on several occasions.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
The LMXT aircraft delivers proven capabilities for the U.S. Air Force’s increasing aerial refueling missions. One of the LMXT’s discriminating capabilities is its refueling system, which includes a fly-by-wire aerial refueling boom. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
