‘A very special and historic moment’

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Wednesday Aug 10,2022 07:43 pm
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By Alexander Ward

President Joe Biden shakes hands with Mikko Hautala, Finland's ambassador to the U.S., as he speaks with Hautala and Karin Olofsdotter, Sweden's ambassador to the U.S.

President Joe Biden shakes hands with Mikko Hautala, Finland's ambassador to the U.S., as he speaks with Hautala and Karin Olofsdotter, Sweden's ambassador to the U.S. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

With help from Lawrence Ukenye and Andrew Desiderio

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The moment was so big that Finland’s ambassador to the U.S., MIKKO HAUTALA , temporarily cut short his August vacation to fly back to Washington, D.C.

President JOE BIDEN was set to sign the Senate’s ratification of Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO , and the diplomat wanted to be in the White House’s East Room for the Tuesday ceremony. “I knew it would be a historic event for Finland and it certainly felt that way,” Hautala told NatSec Daily today as he made his way back to Helsinki.

Hautala stood alongside KARIN OLOFSDOTTER, Sweden’s ambassador to the U.S., as Biden made an impassioned case for why the famed alliance of 30 countries needed two more members.

“Sweden and Finland have strong democratic institutions, strong militaries, and strong and transparent economies. They’ll meet every NATO requirement; we’re confident of that,” he said, “and make our Alliance stronger, and it will make America and the American people safer in the process.”

“I was moved by the strong statement by POTUS to support our fast accession,” Hautala told your host. “It was easy to conclude that Finnish-American relations are now stronger than ever.”

ERIK BRATTBERG, a former Swedish official who is the senior vice president at the Albright Stonebridge Group and attended the proceedings, spoke about the event in more personal terms. “It feels very significant to me that this moment is here,” he said. “It’s a very special and historic moment.”

Biden’s signature, following a 95 to 1 vote in the Senate , officially made the United States the 23rd NATO nation to approve of Finland and Sweden’s accession. Of the remaining seven, the Atlantic Council think tank expects Greece, Slovakia, Czechia, Spain and Portugal will give the green light without much fuss by the year’s end. Turkey, which initially said it wouldn’t support the new memberships, will likely relent in 2023. And Hungary’s VIKTOR ORBÁN will wait until his country is the last one to say “welcome to the club” because he wants Ankara to move first.

It’s quite the whiplash if you take a big step back. Yes, it’s a dramatic reversal from decades of Swedish and Finnish policy brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But it wasn’t that long ago that key NATO leaders privately and publicly questioned the alliance’s existence.

In his book The Room Where it Happened, JOHN BOLTON detailed a scene in which former President DONALD TRUMP planned to tell allies in 2018 that the U.S. was leaving NATO. “We’re out. We’re not going to fight someone they’re paying,” Trump told his national security adviser ahead of that year’s NATO summit, referencing how Europeans trade and do business with Russia. Once in the meeting, Trump turned to Bolton and asked, “Are we going to do it?” Bolton replied: “Go up to the line, but don’t cross it.” The president, who once called NATO “obsolete,” gave in.

The next year, French President EMMANUEL MACRON told The Economist that the U.S. was no longer a reliable ally. “What we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO,” he said. The alliance “only works if the guarantor of last resort functions as such. I’d argue that we should reassess the reality of what NATO is in the light of the commitment of the United States.”

Now with Biden in the White House, and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN showing who he really is, few seem to question America’s commitment or the alliance’s purpose.

“There were only two Finns opposing my attendance — my 7- and 5-year-old boys,” Hautala told NatSec Daily, noting their displeasure at his absence from a long-planned vacation. “But they will understand later.”

The Inbox

UKRAINE SPECIAL FORCES BEHIND CRIMEA BLASTS: A Ukrainian official told the Washington Post Wednesday that the massive blast at a Russian air base in Crimea was the work of Ukrainian special forces.

“The official … did not disclose details of how the Tuesday attack was carried out. In any case, the attack marks a dramatic escalation in the nearly six-month-old war, demonstrating an ability by Ukrainian forces to strike farther behind Russian lines than previously believed,” ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN, ADELA SULIMAN and LIZ SLY reported.

Ukraine’s air force said that the explosions destroyed nine Russian warplanes.

While Kyiv hasn’t officially and openly confirmed its involvement in the Safy air base attack, “Ukraine’s special operations forces are known to be engaged in a campaign to infiltrate Russian-held territory and coordinate with sympathetic locals on the ground to carry out attacks,” the Post noted. “Guerrilla activity has been especially prevalent in the occupied southern Kherson region, just north of Crimea.”

Also read: Ukraine’s long-awaited southern counteroffensive begins with a bang in Crimea ” by POLITICO’s CHRISTOPHER MILLER.

RUSSIA TRAINING ON IRANIAN DRONES: A U.S. official told NatSec Daily: “During the last several weeks, Russian officials conducted training in Iran as part of the agreement for UAV transfers from Iran to Russia.”

That information from downgraded intelligence comes a month after national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN warned that Iran planned to sell drones to Russia . U.S. officials have since said privately that Moscow’s turn to Tehran for the unmanned aircraft shows its desperation as Western-led sanctions and export controls take their toll on the Kremlin.

CNN’s NATASHA BERTRAND , who first reported on the new intel, also wrote “Iran began showcasing the Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones … to Russia at Kashan Airfield south of Tehran in June.”

IRGC MEMBER CHARGED WITH PLOT TO KILL BOLTON: A member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been charged with working to orchestrate the murder of John Bolton.

Per the Department of Justice : “According to court documents, beginning in October 2021, SHAHRAM POURSAFI, aka MEHDI REZAYI, 45, of Tehran, Iran, attempted to arrange the murder of former National Security Advisor John Bolton, likely in retaliation for the January 2020 death of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Qods Force (IRGC-QF) commander QASEM SOLEIMANI. Poursafi, working on behalf of the IRGC-QF, attempted to pay individuals in the United States $300,000 to carry out the murder in Washington, D.C. or Maryland.”

“This is not the first time we have uncovered Iranian plots to exact revenge against individuals on U.S. soil and we will work tirelessly to expose and disrupt every one of these efforts,” said Assistant Attorney General MATTHEW OLSEN.

NatSec Daily has personally seen the protective detail that follows Bolton around, which is necessary given the legitimate threat against him. In June, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN also said Iran’s aims to kill his predecessor, MIKE POMPEO, were real and dangerous.

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com , and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward .

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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
Flashpoints

CHINA ENDS DRILLS AS ‘WAR PREPARATION’ CONTINUES: China has officially called off its provocative live-fire exercises off the coast of Taiwan, but vowed that its military would proceed with “training and war preparation.”

A spokesperson for the People Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command said on Wednesday afternoon that the drills, successfully completed, “effectively tested the integrated joint combat capabilities of the troops,” The Guardian’s HELEN DAVIDSON reported.

China’s State Council also released a white paper on China-Taiwan relations that, according to Reuters’ YEW LUN TIAN , withdrew a promise made in the 1993 and 2000 versions of the document not to send troops to Taiwan if Beijing took control of the democratic island.

The removed line from the previous papers — that China "will not send troops or administrative personnel to be based in Taiwan" — was meant to assure Taipei that “it would enjoy autonomy after becoming a special administrative region of China.”

BLINKEN CALLS OUT RWANDA: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is worried about Rwanda's backing of the March 23 Movement rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

"We are very concerned by credible reports that Rwanda has provided support to M23,” Blinken said on Tuesday while in the Democratic Republic of Congo. “We call on parties in the region to stop any support or cooperation with M23, or, for that matter, any non-state armed group.”

Rwanda has denied any efforts to support M23 and the rebels have claimed they haven't received any help from the Rwandan government. Although the militia formed in 2012, M23 rebels are the product of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, which continues to seed unrest and violence across the region.

The calls for restraint from Washington come as Blinken has toured Africa to strengthen U.S. ties with countries amid growing influence from Russia and China in the region.

Keystrokes

SAUDI SPY AT TWITTER: A former Twitter employee was found guilty of spying for Saudi Arabia, using the site to track dissidents and report on them to an official close to Crown prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN.

“A jury in a federal court in California found AHMAD ABOUAMMO, a dual US-Lebanese national, had acted as an unregistered agent of the Saudi government. Abouammo was found to have used his position at Twitter to find personal details identifying critics of the Saudi monarchy who had been posting under anonymous Twitter handles, and then supplying the information to Prince Mohammed’s aide BADER AL-ASAKER . In return, Asaker is said to have given him a $20,000 watch and paid a total of more than $300,000 to an account in Lebanon set up in Abouammo’s father’s name,” The Guardian’s JULIAN BORGER reported.

Read the full indictment .

The Complex

ARMY’S ‘TRIAD’ CONCEPT: The Army is looking to better integrate its Special Operations Command, its Space and Missile Defense Command and its Cyber Command under a new “triad” concept, Breaking Defense’s ANDREW EVERSDEN reported.

“The aim: to better integrate each command’s capabilities to stitch together more complex and effective battlefield options in a world where adversaries can operate in multiple domains at once,” he wrote.

“We have examples in the counter-ISIS fight of combining lethal and non-lethal effects for a much larger holistic effect that I would say had a larger impact than anyone predicted prior to us truly synchronizing our efforts for having an effect on the adversary there,” Lt. Gen JONATHAN BRAGA, head of the U.S. Army Special Operations Command, said this week at the Space and Missile Defense Symposium. “It provides more opportunity to obviously layer in the capabilities from space…. It just opens up more opportunities for the synergistic effect of the three different legs of the triad.”

The goal is to road test the concept over the next 12 months, both in “experimentation venues” and in operations, Eversden reported.

AUSTIN DOWNGRADES OFFICERS AT 12 U.S. EMBASSIES: General officers will no longer be the top defense official at U.S. embassies in the United Kingdom, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan and Kuwait. They will at most be a captain in the Navy or a colonel in the other services, Breaking Defense’s AARON METHA reported.

The move was authorized by Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN in an Aug. 8 memo that also reverses the downgrading of those positions at missions in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, China, India and Israel.

“Unfortunately, hard decisions must be made to allow the Department to meet the G/FO reductions mandated by the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017. As such, I concur with previous decisions and approve the downgrade of the following positions to the grade of 06 or below to occur no later than December 31, 2022,” Austin wrote.

On the Hill

PELOSI DENIES MILITARY TOLD HER NOT TO GO TO TAIWAN: Speaker NANCY PELOSI said on Wednesday that the U.S. military never told her not to travel to Taiwan, defending her historic visit to the self-governing island amid China’s hostile response — and the Biden administration’s warnings, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO reported .

“I don’t remember them ever telling us not to go,” Pelosi said of the U.S. military. “We are very proud of our military. Their preparation actually, I think, minimized the impact of the Chinese on our trip. So they took very good care of us.”

After it was publicly reported that Pelosi was set to travel to Taiwan, Biden told reporters that the military “thinks it’s not a good idea right now,” but the White House ultimately said the speaker makes her own travel plans. POLITICO previously reported that the Biden administration was worried about the Chinese overreacting to the trip.

Broadsides

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– GROUPS QUESTION ADMIN’S CT REVIEW: The Biden administration needs to more seriously consider the risks of civilian harm after Biden sent more than 500 troops back into Somalia , a group of 27 civil society groups wrote to the president Wednesday.

“[T]here has been no clear accountability or reform for over a decade of U.S. lethal strikes in Somalia,” the organizations, including Win Without War and the Brennan Center for Justice, wrote in the letter obtained by NatSec Daily . “Despite credible reports of civilian harm from multiple civil society organizations and news sources, many of which followed intensive civil society investigations in Somalia, the United States has continued to ignore or deny well-documented cases of civilian deaths and injuries caused by U.S. lethal strikes.”

The groups thus want the administration to consult meaningfully with civil society groups “to inform your ongoing counterterrorism review;” “publicly disclose and explain the legal and policy rationale for any proposed lethal operations in Somalia;” “commit to addressing past U.S.-caused civilian harm in Somalia”; and “adopt a conflict sensitive approach centered in human rights, peacebuilding, the rule of law, and diplomacy.”

“With reports of potential lethal strikes in Somalia, and the possibility of more operations, President Biden should honor his commitment to transparent, accountable, and rights-respecting policies," Columbia Law School’s PRIYANKA MOTAPARTHY told your host.

U.S. Africa Command conducted three strikes in Somalia today against Al Shabaab terrorists.

 

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Transitions

KATE WATERS has started at the National Security Council as the strategic communications director, covering hostages, global health, humanitarian responses, democracy and human rights and multilateral affairs. She’ll also assist on the European portfolio.

What to Read

PHIL KLAY, Time: “ ‘War is Betrayal.’ Coming to Terms With America’s Disastrous Departure from Afghanistan

SHANNON VAVRA, The Daily Beast: “ How Putin is Pushing His Army Bosses Through a ‘Meat Grinder’ of Death

SCOTT ROEHM, Lawfare: “ In U.S. v. Al-Nashiri the Government is Rewarding Torture and Incentivizing Torturers

Tomorrow Today

— SecState Blinken will continue his trip through Africa, meeting with leaders in Rwanda.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affair, 10 a.m.: Atomic Backfires: How Great Power Nuclear Policies Fail

Politics and Prose Bookstore, 7 p.m.: "The Fifth Act," focusing on "the American collapse in Afghanistan."

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to my editor, Ben Pauker, who worries about the “brain death” of this newsletter.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
 

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