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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Andrew Desiderio | | 
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to visit Taiwan this week despite President Joe Biden cautioning against the trip. | Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo | With help from Lawrence Ukenye, Paul McLeary, Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex Speaker NANCY PELOSI is scheduled to travel to Taiwan this week, a congressional official and a Taiwanese official familiar with the itinerary told ANDREW DESIDERIO and your host , with the current expectation that she will land in Taipei on Tuesday. The visit would make her the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the self-governing island in decades. Pelosi’s travel plans, which remain officially unconfirmed, have been the subject of bellicose rhetoric from China over the past few weeks — including suggestions that her plane could be shot down. There’s clear disagreement within the government about what the U.S. thinks China might do in response to the visit. The congressional official said U.S. officials concluded that China’s belligerent threats against the speaker are simply an intimidation tactic. But National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said in a Monday news conference that China “appears to be positioning itself to potentially take further steps in the coming days,” which could include firing missiles into the Taiwan Strait, a large-scale entry into Taiwan’s air-defense identification zone, a bigger military exercise, or more. A senior U.S. defense official told reporters on Friday that there have been no significant redeployments of American military assets in the region in response to Chinese rhetoric surrounding the speaker’s trip, but several warships are already in the South China and East China Seas. President JOE BIDEN’s national security and military advisers had cautioned Pelosi against the visit , POLITICO previously reported, given the heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing. In a phone call last week, Chinese President XI JINPING warned Biden that, when it comes to Taiwan, “those who play with fire will eventually get burned.” Beijing views Taiwan as an inseparable part of China and has strongly contested what it views as U.S. interference in domestic affairs. Meanwhile, in Washington, fears have grown in recent months that Xi plans to invade the island. The U.S. has maintained its so-called “One China” policy and does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but has affirmed Taipei’s right to self-defense and has sent billions of dollars worth of weapons to boost its arsenal. Biden, however, has on three occasions said the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s defense in case of an invasion attempt by China — seemingly clarifying the ambiguity — but he and his officials continue to insist there has been no change in America’s Taiwan policy. Pelosi was in Singapore on Monday as part of a four-country swing through Asia. She is also scheduled to visit Malaysia, South Korea and Japan during the trip. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) and Veterans’ Affairs Committee Chair MARK TAKANO (D-Calif.) are among the lawmakers accompanying Pelosi. Pelosi has been among the most consistent China hawks over the last three decades, even taking on her own party when it comes to the threat Beijing poses to U.S. security and economic interests. She has championed human-rights concerns in China, including the genocide of Uyghur Muslims and the crackdown of pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989. American and Taiwanese figures have grown bolder about showing their support for the relationship, rankling China in the process. BI-KHIM HSIAO, the democratic island’s de facto representative to the U.S., attended Biden’s inauguration. Four months later, U.S. Ambassador to Palau JOHN HENNESSEY-NILAND became the first sitting American envoy to travel to Taiwan since Washington cut formal ties to Taipei in 1979.
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At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | BREAKING –– MORE AID FOR UKRAINE: The Biden administration on Monday authorized another $500 million in security assistance for Ukraine, Kirby announced. The package includes 75,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition, as well as additional ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), the Pentagon said. U.S.-MADE LAUNCHERS DIDN’T KILL UKRAINIAN POWS: Our own LARA SELIGMAN scoops that the U.S. assessed Ukraine didn’t attack a prison in a Russian-occupied eastern region of Donetsk with American-made rocket launchers last week, directly contradicting Russian claims, per two U.S. officials. “We know Ukraine didn’t attack the site with HIMARS because the site doesn’t have the indications it would have if it was hit with HIMARS,” one of the officials said. While one of the officials stopped short of saying Ukraine was not responsible for the strike, the other said the evidence showed the attack was not conducted by Kyiv. Kyiv and Moscow have traded blame over Thursday’s attack, which reportedly killed 53 Ukrainian prisoners of war and wounded 75 more. The POWs include soldiers captured after the fall of Mariupol, the city where troops famously held out for months against a fierce Russian offensive. FIRST GRAIN SHIP LEAVES UKRAINE: The first grain ship left Odessa's port Monday under a United Nations-brokered agreement to alleviate the invasion-exacerbated global food crisis. “The wail of a Ukrainian tug boat’s horn marked the departure of the Razoni, a Sierra Leonian-flagged bulk carrier that began the journey at 9:30 a.m. local time. The ship was destined for Lebanon, according to Turkey’s Defense Ministry,” The Washington Post’s DALTON BENNETT and KAREEM FAHIM reported. “Sixteen additional vessels are waiting to depart, according to [Ukrainian Minister of Infrastructure OLEKSANDR KUBRAKOV], who noted that the expected resumption of grain shipments would provide at least $1 billion in much-needed foreign currency reserves for cash-strapped Ukraine.” The July 22 agreement, signed in Turkey, is only designed to last for 120 days. During that time period, ships are guaranteed safe passage from Odessa and two other ports. The hope is this plan will make food more available to millions in Africa and the Middle East already suffering from hunger. UKRAINE WAR LOCUS MOVES SOUTH: Ukrainian forces are turning their attention to a counteroffensive in their country’s south, aiming to wrest back control of Kherson and thwart Russia’s intention of seizing the strategic region. “[F]or Ukraine, Kherson is an important strategic objective as the largest population center occupied by the Russians and the first city to fall. As a port, it is economically important to the Ukrainians and taking it back would deny Russian forces access to the southern coast toward Odessa,” The Wall Street Journal’s STEPHEN FIDLER and DANIEL MICHAELS reported. “Military offensives are more challenging than defensive operations. Analysts caution that Ukraine shouldn’t — and likely won’t — rush into the fight in the south because it must continue to check Russian advances in the east. But demonstrating that it can retake ground in the south would provide an important victory for Ukrainian morale and show its backers, particularly those in Europe as the continent faces a tough winter with likely energy shortages, that their support is yielding results on the ground,” they continued. Meanwhile: Four more HIMARS have arrived in Ukraine. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com , and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @ChristopherJM , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu .
| | | |   | | | | | | ‘PREPARED TO INTERVENE’: A NATO peacekeeping force issued a statement Sunday evening that it was “prepared to intervene” should a Serbia-Kosovo squabble over license plates and travel documents grow into a larger conflict. A Kosovar plan to have ethnic Serbs abide by official Kosovo rules sparked outrage last night, leading to the Serbs blocking roads and Kosovars closing two border crossings. Shots were fired in the direction of protesters, per Kosovar police, but no one was hurt. The NATO peacekeeping unit known as KFOR, short for Kosovo Force, has operated in Kosovo since 1999 following the breakaway country’s war with Serbia. “The NATO-led KFOR mission is monitoring closely and is prepared to intervene if stability is jeopardized,” the peacekeepers said in a statement. While some worried about the potential for a renewed war, reporters familiar with the issue noted such regional disputes occasionally get rowdy. “While none of this is ‘normal’ or welcome, it sadly isn’t extraordinarily out of proportion to previous incidents in the north. Various political and criminal Kosovo Serb groups flex their muscles when they feel their domination in that area is threatened, and yes, they are armed,” UNA HAJDARI tweeted with the hashtag #calmdown.
| | | AUSTRALIAN HACKER ARRESTED: A five-year-long sting operation ended with the arrest of an Australian man who allegedly sold hacking tools to thousands of cyber criminals in 128 countries. Jacob Wayne John Keen, 24, was “allegedly selling a trojan virus named Imminent Monitor,” Techspot’s JIMMY PEZZONE reported. “The tool allowed users to target unsuspecting victims to steal their personal data, track information entered into documents, and spy on them using the target's webcams and microphones.” The sting operation, named Operation Cephus, began once the Australian Federal Police received suspicious information from the FBI and Palo Alto Networks. “Keen allegedly created and began distributing the tool for $35 per user at age 15, while living in his mother's rental unit. Proceeds from the tool totaled between $300,000 and $400,000 until it was finally shut down in 2019,” Pezzone wrote.
| | | 3RD FLEET BOSS WANTS INDO-PAC FORCE: Good luck sleeping after reading this article from Defense News’ MEGAN ECKSTEIN : “The U.S. is closer to conflict in the Pacific than it is to peace, the head of U.S. 3rd Fleet said, and the command structure must change to reflect that.” Vice Adm. MICHAEL BOYLE wants a standing force in the Indo-Pacific to respond to a potential crisis with China. Per Eckstein, Boyle “noted more must be done to adjust to this new posture, including understanding when each country’s military is authorized to join an operation by the proposed maritime force; which nations would join a humanitarian assistance or disaster relief mission; and which nations would join in a fight against China or North Korea.” A standing command structure would “look at what China, Russia and North Korea do, and then we posture the force to induce dilemmas into their thinking. We ultimately want them to think: ‘Today is not the day to go against this joint, combined force,’” Boyle said.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– COUNTER WMD BILL: A new bill would modernize the Department of Homeland Security’s Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office, including making sure it exists beyond the end of fiscal year 2023. The “ Health Security and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Act ” — introduced by Reps. VAL DEMINGS (D-Fla.), BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.), YVETTE CLARKE (D-N.Y.) and LAUREN UNDERWOOD (D-Ill.) — would eliminate a sunset clause in prior legislation and clarify its roles in countering chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats. Furthermore, it would establish a CWMD Advisory Council, require a biodefense review and establish a DHS biodefense strategy, and formally establish the new Office of Health Security. “My new legislation will stabilize and expand our efforts to stop chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats to the American people, and will also improve oversight and operations to make sure that our time and money is being spent effectively. As we continue to face current and future biological health risks from monkeypox to anthrax, this legislation is critical to protect the safety of DHS personnel and the American people,” Demings said in a statement.
| | | NZ PM TO CHINA — HELP UKRAINE: New Zealand Prime Minister JACINDA ARDERN called on China to oppose Russia's invasion of Ukraine. “As history shows us repeatedly, when large countries disregard sovereignty and territorial integrity with a sense of impunity, it does not bode well particularly for small countries like New Zealand,” Ardern said Monday at Auckland’s China Business Summit. The prime minister urged China to condemn the invasion as a way to uphold regional stability, claiming that international norms and institutions are now more important than ever. But in the same breath, Ardern said New Zealand would continue to cooperate with a “more assertive” China . China remained largely silent after Russia’s invasion after facing international calls to speak out against the unprovoked attack, but shortly after declared its relationship with Russia had “no limits.” The call from Arden comes as tensions continue to rise in the Pacific, with U.S.-China relations reaching a low point over Pelosi's upcoming visit to Taiwan.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation.
At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | Our own DANIEL LIPPMAN sends in these two items: — LAUREN CALLAHAN is now liaison officer at the Air Force Office of Special Investigations. She most recently was a foreign investment and national security subject matter expert at Bowhead Mission Solutions, LLC. — STEPHEN ANDERSON is now minister-counselor for economic affairs for the U.S. Embassy in Berlin. He most recently was the former acting deputy assistant secretary of State for international communications and information policy.
| | | — SHAUN WALKER, The Guardian: “ ‘I hate them’: Dmitry Medvedev’s journey from liberal to anti-western hawk ” — ANTHONY ZINNI, MIE AUGIER, SEAN F.X. BARRETT, Proceedings: “ Innovation: People Are More Important than Technology ” — DAVID PAPPALARDO, War On The Rocks: “ ‘Win The War Before The War?’: A French Perspective On Cognitive Warfare ”
| | | — Center for a New American Security, 8:30 a.m.: “ Operationalizing the Quad ” — Wilson Center for Africa, 10:00 a.m.: “Food Security Systems as Drivers for Sustainable Peacebuilding in Africa: The Case of Kenya” — Senate Armed Services Committee, 2:30 p.m..: “ Nomination Hearing: TERRENCE EDWARDS to be inspector general of the National Reconnaissance Office ” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to my editor, Ben Pauker, who is always “prepared to intervene” if this newsletter gets out of hand. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
