The nuke speculation train has left the station

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Wednesday Sep 07,2022 07:41 pm
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
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By Alexander Ward and Lawrence Ukenye

A page from a FBI property list of items seized from former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate and made public by the Department of Justice, are photographed.

Per Devlin Barrett and Carol Leonnig from the Washington Post, the document about a country’s “nuclear-defense readiness” came into the government possession through a court-approved search on Aug. 8. | Jon Elswick/AP Photo

With help from Lee Hudson and Connor O’Brien

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Forgive the pun, but the Washington Post dropped a bomb last night: “A document describing a foreign government’s military defenses, including its nuclear capabilities, was found by FBI agents who searched former president DONALD TRUMP’s Mar-a-Lago residence and private club last month.”

Per DEVLIN BARRETT and CAROL LEONNIG , the document about a country’s “nuclear-defense readiness” came into the government possession through a court-approved search on Aug. 8.

Importantly, military defenses + nuclear-defense readiness ≠ one of the nine countries known to have nuclear weapons. It’s possible that the sensitive intelligence was about a country’s ability to withstand a nuclear attack or ability to protect its burgeoning nuclear program. If that’s the case, a country like Iran would fit the bill.

That hasn’t stopped the D.C. commentariat from speculating wildly on which country had their secrets strewn about Trump’s club.

It’s North Korea, so goes one theory, because Trump was deep into nuclear negotiations with KIM JONG UN and liked to show his “love letters” to the dictator. It’s Israel, because Trump has shared the country’s most secret information before . It’s Iran, actually, because the president surely received constant updates about its nuclear work following America’s withdrawal from the 2015 deal.

At this point, all anyone has is a guess — except, of course, for the government officials who have recently reviewed the document. “We still have more questions than answers on exactly what’s in those documents,” said ERIC BREWER , senior director of the Nuclear Materials Security program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative. “The range of issues and countries that could fit in the nuclear bin is so large that it is kind of useless to speculate without further information.”

An official for one of the nuclear-armed states didn’t seem that worried about the news. “We really have no clue what the document might be about and we haven’t sought anything about this from the Biden administration,” the person texted NatSec Daily.

A risk assessment of Trump’s removal of highly classified documents is underway by the office of the Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES.

Meanwhile, Trump’s defenders say he had the complete authority to declassify the materials and/or that the scandal amounts to no more than a storage issue, adding that the government is leaking classified information to the press.

But Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.), chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, isn’t buying it. “I don’t know in what world that makes any legal, rational, or intelligence sense,” he said today.

 

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The Inbox

UKRAINE ADMITS MISSILE STRIKES ON SAKI: Ukraine hit Russia’s Saki airbase in Crimea with missile strikes, Ukraine’s armed forces chief admitted Wednesday.

Gen. VALERIY ZALUZHNYI and Lt. Gen. MYKHAILO ZABRODSKYI, the first deputy chair of the National Security, Defense, and Intelligence Committee in Ukraine’s Rada, wrote in Ukrinform Wednesday that “a series of successful missile strikes” hit “the Saki airfield.”

It’s the first open admission by Ukrainian officials that missiles, not special operations-led sabotage or bombings, hit the military facility and destroyed Russian fighter jets.

The Biden administration says it backs Ukraine as it strikes Russian targets deep inside occupied Ukrainian territory. Now that Kyiv openly admits it’s attacking Crimea with missiles, expect even more of those kinds of attacks.

Also: A clip of Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY speaking with French President EMMANUEL MACRON the day after the Feb. 24 invasion is circulating on social media. The main takeaway: Zelenskyy asked Macron to speak with VLADIMIR PUTIN , thinking that the combined might of a Western alliance would be enough to get Russia’s president to “stop.”

HARPOON TRAINING: The U.S. worked with an undisclosed country to train Ukrainian forces on firing anti-ship Harpoon missiles over Memorial Day weekend, WILLIAM LaPLANTE, under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said at the Defense News conference Wednesday.

The U.S. worked with Boeing and the unnamed country to remove the Harpoons from a ship and installed the missiles on a flatbed truck for the Ukrainians to train. The Ukrainians later fired those missiles, sinking two Russian ships, LaPlante said.

NO IRAN DEAL ANY TIME SOON: There won’t be a renewed Iran deal any time soon, President JOE BIDEN has reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister YAIR LAPID.

Zman Yisrael reports that Biden and top U.S. officials conveyed this message to Israeli officials in recent conversations. A spokesperson for Lapid’s office declined to comment when reached by NatSec Daily. The NSC didn’t return a request for comment.

A return to the Iran deal has long been a source of tension between Washington and Jerusalem. Lapid also aims to look tough on Iran ahead of elections in November, as he faces a challenge from the right by BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, the former premier.

According to IAEA inspectors, Iran has pushed ahead in the last quarter on uranium enrichment, whittling down the breakout time to just weeks.

Read: Our own NAHAL TOOSI and STEPHANIE LIECHTENSTEIN on the collapsing talks.

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.

 

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Flashpoints

REUNITED: Putin and Chinese leader XI JINPING will meet in Uzbekistan next week as both countries continue to push aggressive foreign policies in their respective regions, the Associated Press reported.

The meeting, scheduled at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, would be Xi Jinping's first trip away from mainland China in nearly three years.

The summit between the two leaders could signal a deepening of ties against the West after both countries announced earlier this year their relationship had "no limits" following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russia continues to suffer the military, reputational and economic toll of fighting Ukraine, while China has tried to flex its muscle in the Taiwan Strait following a string of U.S. congressional delegations, including the high-profile visit of Speaker NANCY PELOSI.

Keystrokes

ALBANIA CYBERATTACKED BY IRAN: Albania has severed diplomatic ties with Iran after Tehran launched cyberattacks against the NATO-allied country, Reuters reported.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama claimed that Iran hired four groups of hackers to attack the country's public service systems and steal government data.

The U.S. condemned the attacks and claimed it would take steps to hold Iran accountable.

"Iran’s conduct disregards norms of responsible peacetime State behavior in cyberspace, which includes a norm on refraining from damaging critical infrastructure that provides services to the public," National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON said in a statement.

The July 15 cyberattacks came before a "World Summit of Free Iran" in Albania that was affiliated with an Iranian opposition group. The attacks also come as Iran and Israel continue to target one another with offensive cyberattacks.

UKRAINE FENDING OF RUSSIAN CYBERATTACKS: Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest mobile operator, has worked to fight off Russian cyberattacks since war began in February, our own MAGGIE MILLER reported.

The telecom company which serves 26 million people has suffered damage to base stations and continues to face phishing attacks designed to infiltrate the company.

While Kyivstar hasn’t drastically changed service, Ukrainian officials have sought help from Washington on how to respond to increasing cyber aggression from Moscow.

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The Complex

U.S. TESTS ICBM: The Air Force tested an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile on Wednesday morning in California, according to U.S. military officials.

The test was carried out by the Air Force's Global Strike command and was part of routine scheduled readiness tests. Russia was notified prior in accordance with international law.

The tests come as Russia and Ukraine continue to be engaged in a conflict in which Moscow has threatened the use of nuclear weapons. The Pentagon, which announced the tests in a Tuesday briefing, claimed the launch was not in response to recent world events.

The U.S. launch follows an Aug. 12 Minuteman III launch, which was delayed due to tensions with China over Pelosi’s visit. A Minuteman III test in March was also delayed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

F-35 DELIVERY HALT: DoD has temporarily suspended deliveries of F-35 warplanes to the U.S. military and foreign governments after Lockheed Martin discovered a metal component used in the jet’s engine had come from China, according to the Pentagon.

“The Defense Contract Management Agency notified the F-35 Joint Program Office at the Pentagon on Aug. 19 that an alloy used in magnets contained in the F-35’s turbomachine pumps came from China. Lockheed Martin builds the overall aircraft, but the turbomachine is produced by Honeywell,” our own LEE HUDSON reported.

The discovery does not affect flight operations of F-35s already in service, the Joint Program Office said.

“We have confirmed that the magnet does not transmit information or harm the integrity of the aircraft and there are no performance, quality, safety or security risks associated with this issue and flight operations for the F-35 in-service fleet will continue as normal,” F-35 Joint Program Office spokesperson Russell Goemaere said in a statement to POLITICO.

On the Hill

DEMOCRATIC SENATORS INTRO BRAZIL RESOLUTION: Senate Democrats including TIM KAINE (D-Va.), BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) and ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), introduced a resolution in support of Brazilian democracy on the country's independence day.

Sanders previewed the bill for NatSec Daily in early August after expressing concerns in light of President JAIR BOLSONARO attacking the country’s courts and urging supporters to “fight for their freedom.”

“This resolution sends a powerful message that Congress is committed to linking arms with the people of Brazil in that effort and that we will not be silent in the face of any attempts to undermine Brazil’s electoral system," Kaine, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Western Hemisphere, said in a statement.

Thousands of police officers have been deployed throughout the capital, Brasilia, as Bolsonaro has planned a series of rallies to generate support for his bid in the country’s upcoming election in October.

A GREAT NDAA DEBATE?: The chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee wants to get this marquee defense bill on the floor this month, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in, but he's cautioning that a debate on the National Defense Authorization Act is far from a done deal.

"We are pressing very hard. I'm personally engaged with Leader [CHUCK] SCHUMER and others to try to get it to the floor before we recess for the elections. September, I hope," Sen. JACK REED (D-R.I.) said at the annual Defense News conference. "I'd like to say it's a certainty, but I cannot say that.

The House passed its defense bill in July, however the Senate has yet to finalize its own version of the annual defense legislation amid a slate of Democratic priorities that have preoccupied the chamber in recent months.

The Senate did not pass their own NDAA last year as House and Senate Armed Services leaders resorted to negotiating their own deal.

Broadsides

GREECE COMPLAINS ABOUT TURKEY: Greece has sent letters to NATO and the UN over concerns about language used by Turkey claiming they were ready to "do what is necessary" over a dispute in regard to Greece’s militarized Aegean Islands.

"The Turkish attitude is a destabilizing factor for NATO's unity and cohesion, weakening the southern flank of the Alliance at a moment of crisis," Greece's foreign ministry wrote in a letter to NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG.

Turkey also submitted letters to the UN addressing concerns over airspace and territorial waters regarding the Aegean Islands.

The dispute over the islands has been a source of tension for both countries as Turkey sees the militarization by Greece as a potential threat to its sovereignty. Greece, meanwhile, has alleged Ankara’s concerns about the islands aren't supported by international law.

 

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Transitions

JAMES TINGLE started last week as the special adviser to the assistant secretary for trade and economic security at the Department of Homeland Security. He was most recently the special assistant to the commissioner at U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

MEREDITH HOING is now media relations manager at Corning. She most recently was director for earned media at Edelman Global Advisory.

JENNIFER M. ADAMS is Biden's nominee for ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary to the Republic of Cabo Verde.

NICOLE D. THERIOT is nominee for ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary to the Co-operative Republic of Guyana.

What to Read

— JOHN HUDSON, Washington Post: Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive

— ANNE APPLEBAUM, The Atlantic: 'Lukashenko Is Easier to Unseat Than Putin’

— MARCEL PLICHTA, The Daily Beast: New American ‘VAMPIRE’ Weapon Could Crush Putin’s War

Tomorrow Today

— Billington Cybersecurity, 8:30 a.m.: 13th Annual Summit

— The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.: “Coffee and Conversation with Gil Herrera”

— Freedom House, 10 a.m.: “Report Launch: Beijing’s Global Media Influence”

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: “Why States Struggle to Develop a Military Cyber-Force: A Conversation with Max Smeets”

The German Marshall Fund of The United States, 10:30 a.m.: “Conversation with Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský”

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: "From Ukraine to Taiwan: Charting a new U.S.-Japan Alliance."

— The University of Maryland, 12 p.m.: "The Patron's Dilemma: Recklessness and Restraint under Nuclear Umbrellas."

— The Institute of World Politics, 4 p.m.: "A Year On: Current Events in Taliban Afghanistan."

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, whose attitude we consider a destabilizing factor.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation.

At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.

 
 

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