|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward , Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
“This is why I’m saying that the breaking point might be close: the people around Putin are also feeling the consequences of this war, and they are not happy with the results,” Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said. | Pavel Golovkin/AP Photo | With help from Daniel Lippman and Phelim Kine Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Russia is reaching its “breaking point,” according to Estonia’s prime minister, as allies of Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN wobble in their support for the war in Ukraine. The political, economic and military pressure is taking an increasingly large toll on Moscow, Estonian PM KAJA KALLAS told NatSec Daily in a Zoom interview Wednesday. It’s already known that some of Putin’s friends, including Wagner Group founder YEVGENIY PRIGOZHIN , have privately vented their frustrations to the Kremlin boss. Kallas hinted, though didn’t explicitly say, that Tallinn has intelligence of other angry oligarchs. And there’s public evidence of mounting disappointment on nationalist Telegram channels and state-run television . The military isn’t happy either, Kallas said, noting that troops don’t have the requisite gear or weapons to hold territory against Ukraine’s counteroffensive. “This is why I’m saying that the breaking point might be close: the people around Putin are also feeling the consequences of this war, and they are not happy with the results,” the prime minister said. Kallas has long been one of Europe’s most hardline advocates for tightening the vise around Putin. The 45-year-old premier grew up in the Soviet Union , which annexed Estonia after World War II. She heard family stories about how her mother and grandmother were deported to Siberia in an effort to eradicate the Estonian elite. It explains why Kallas, alongside her Baltic colleagues , continues to push Europe to increase support for Ukraine and thwart Russia’s aims. “I encourage other leaders to send all the military [equipment] that they have,” she told NatSec Daily. “We have definitely done it on our side.” She noted that Estonia provided Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles a week before the invasion started. OLEKSII REZNIKOV, Ukraine’s defense minister, recently told our own PAUL McLEARY that he expects allies to send Abrams tanks and fighter jets, like F-16s, F-15s and Gripens, at some point soon. Kallas hopes her counterparts will grant Reznikov’s wish, saying that many of the political woes plaguing Western countries — inflation, energy insecurity, a rapid influx of refugees — are a result of the war. “The only response, or the way out of these other worries that we have in internal politics, is to put all the pressure on Russia to end this war,” she said. An interesting nugget: NatSec Daily asked if Estonia had seen an uptick in cyberattacks since the war began and especially since Russia’s rhetoric has turned more aggressive. Yes, she said, though nothing has caused a massive disruption or threatened civilians. She did, however, offer this tidbit: “Just the other day I got two emails. One said that ‘Your blog has been cyberattacked, but it didn't go through.’ And the other one was that I've been sued by the far-right extremists here. So I was like, ‘Okay, these things come together.’”
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | | | | NO ‘NEAR-TERM’ JCPOA: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said he doesn’t see a “near-term prospect” for a return to the Iran nuclear deal — and that it’s Iran’s fault. “The Iranians continue to try to inject” items into the deal that have nothing to do with nuclear issues, Blinken said, calling those provisions “a dead end.” “Unless and until they try to drop those,” the United States’ return to the agreement won’t move forward, he told a small group of reporters and experts hosted Wednesday by Bloomberg News. Moments before his address, the State Department announced new sanctions on Iran for repressing the women-led protests. ‘MASSIVE NUCLEAR ATTACK’ DRILL: Putin monitored drills on Wednesday that Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU characterized as a simulation of a “massive nuclear strike” in retaliation for a nuclear attack on Russia, according to the Kremlin . The drills, which involved multiple practice launches of ballistic and cruise missiles, were successful, according to the Kremlin. Moscow notified Washington of the tests in advance. The simulation comes as Russian officials push unsubstantiated claims that the opposing country will detonate a “dirty bomb” on its own territory in a false flag attack to blame Russia, escalating tensions as fighting persists. At least two people were killed during a barrage of Russian airstrikes that targeted dozens of Ukrainian villages in the past day, the Associated Press’ ANDREW MELDRUM reports . TRIP FOR OIL: President JOE BIDEN insisted that his visit to Saudi Arabia wasn’t about oil. A Tuesday New York Times story by MARK MAZZETTI, EDWARD WONG and ADAM ENTOUS makes clear that it really was. Before the July trip , top administration officials met with their Saudi counterparts to strike a deal. OPEC+ would push up an oil-production increase of 400,000 barrels per day from September to July and August. That production would then increase by 200,000 barrels per day from September to December. OPEC+ announced its intention to fulfill the first part of the agreement on June 2. “That same day, the White House announced Mr. Biden would soon make a trip to Saudi Arabia,” per the NYT. It’s true that Biden fist-bumped with Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN to boost America’s regional standing, especially as Russia and China creep in. But, at the end of the day, it appears an oil arrangement was the main reason Biden traveled to Saudi Arabia at all. ASEAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE: The Biden administration will put Russia’s war on Ukraine at the center of the agenda of next month’s ASEAN East Asia Summit, POLITICO’s China Watcher PHELIM KINE reports. That includes a plan to give Ukraine a seat at the summit table, DANIEL KRITENBRINK, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said on Wednesday. It would be a powerful symbol for Ukraine — albeit a bit awkward, given that Putin and Chinese President XI JINPING may also be in attendance at the November event in Cambodia. The U.S. wants to ensure that Ukraine “meaningfully participates” and that the summit members “send a strong message that big countries cannot simply take what they want from smaller neighbors,” Kritenbrink said at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Asian Architecture Conference. Kritenbrink’s comments suggest that the Biden administration sees an opportunity to channel ASEAN's concern about the economic impact of the war into leveraging the grouping’s trade and diplomatic heft into the international pressure campaign to punish and isolate Russia. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye .
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled.
The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | | DON’T DO IT, KIM: If North Korea performs a nuclear test — as it’s widely expected to in the near future — a joint response from South Korea and its allies would be “decisive,” according to a South Korean official. The northern neighbor’s new nuclear policy adopted last month, specifying the scenarios in which it would use nukes, is “creating a serious tension” on the peninsula, CHO HYUNDONG, South Korea’s first vice foreign minister, told reporters Wednesday, the Associated Press’ HARUKA NUGA and MARI YAMAGUCHI report. In the event of further escalation, South Korea, the U.S. and Japan will use “all the elements of the national power and show an overwhelming, decisive response to any use of a nuclear weapon by North Korea,” Cho said following talks with Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN and Japanese Vice Foreign Minister TAKEO MORI. ETHIOPIAN PEACE TALKS: Peace talks to end the destructive conflict in Tigray have begun in South Africa, marking the highest-level effort yet to call off the fighting that has potentially killed hundreds of thousands of people, the Associated Press’ MOGOMOTSI MAGOME reports . On Tuesday, VINCENT MAGWENYA, the spokesperson for South African President CYRIL RAMAPHOSA, said talks began and will likely continue through Sunday. The discussion is being facilitated by former Nigerian president OLUSEGUN OBASANJO, former South African deputy president PHUMZILE MLAMBO-NGCUKA and former Kenyan president UHURU KENYATTA. “There is no military solution to this conflict, and these talks represent the most promising way to achieve lasting peace and prosperity for all Ethiopians,” SecState Blinken said.
| | | MIDTERM ELECTION CONCERNS: An operation influenced by the Chinese government is working to interfere in U.S. midterm elections by posting misinformation and working to discourage voters from going to the polls, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). A report from Mandiant highlighted aggressive efforts from a campaign known as "DRAGONBRIDGE" that has produced videos working to dissuade Americans from voting by casting doubt on whether candidates on the ballot can achieve their legislative goals. The news comes after POLITICO first reported that national security officials within the Biden administration were planning to warn of multiple threats to the nation's election security infrastructure from China and Russia. NEW CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM: Our own BRYAN BENDER reports (for Pros!) that the National Security Agency and other U.S. spy organizations are adopting new technologies to speed up the review process of classified archived materials, Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES told lawmakers. “Deficiencies in the current system undermine our national security, as well as critical democratic objectives,” Haines told Sens. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) and JERRY MORAN (R-Kan.), two leading advocates of classification reform, in a previously undisclosed August letter confirming the new White House effort. “This process will engage all key stakeholders, to include the Congress, advocacy organizations, and academic partners, to obtain a wide range of viewpoints on the challenges associated with standardizing information management, classification, declassification, and the control of sensitive information,” she pledged.
| | | | JOIN WOMEN RULE THURSDAY FOR A TALK WITH DEPARTING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS: A historic wave of retirements is hitting Congress, including several prominent Democratic women such as Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, House Democrats’ former campaign chief. What is driving their departures? Join POLITICO on Oct. 27 for “The Exit Interview,” a virtual event that will feature a conversation with departing members where they'll explain why they decided to leave office and what challenges face their parties ahead. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | | BOEING LOSES BILLIONS: Boeing on Wednesday announced heavy charges on a host of military and space programs, resulting in a loss of $2.8 billion for the third quarter, Matt reports (for Pros!) . Losses were primarily due to higher estimated manufacturing and supply chain costs, as well as technical challenges “which are expected to continue longer than anticipated,” Chief Financial Officer BRIAN WEST said during a quarterly earnings call. “We’re not embarrassed by them. They are what they are, and we intend to deliver against those contracts,” CEO DAVE CALHOUN said. INDUSTRIAL BASE CONCERNS: NATO defense leaders are concerned that the conflict in Ukraine has highlighted how some members are struggling to surge industrial defense capacity, our friends in Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported. “The Ukraine situation has demonstrated that a number of … assumptions were incorrect, particularly around the rates of expenditure of munitions and the ability to resupply,” said GILES AHERN, head of the Joint Unit on Euro-Atlantic Security Policy at the U.K. Ministry of Defense. While Ahern worries the United Kingdom might not be as quick to produce weapons to respond to a crisis as rapidly as it wants to, Pentagon industrial base official MATTHEW ZOLNOWSKI cautioned Ukraine’s experience might not translate to future conflicts due to how Kyiv uses weapons differently.
| | | ANOTHER MENENDEZ PROBE: Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) is under federal investigation… again, two people familiar with the inquiry told Semafor’s KADIA GOBA . People connected to Menendez, who chairs the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, have been contacted by prosecutors in New York’s Southern District in past weeks, according to the sources. So far, the prosecutors have sent at least one subpoena. The case is similar to an investigation in 2015, the sources said, in which the New Jersey lawmaker was alleged to have helped SALOMON MELGEN , a Florida eye doctor, with government contracts in exchange for upscale vacations and private jet flights. Menendez’s lawyers argued the pair were just good friends, and the inquiry ended in a mistrial after the jury couldn’t reach a verdict.
| | | U.S. SANCTIONS IRAN FOR CRACKDOWN: The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned 10 Iranian officials in response to Tehran’s crackdown on protests following the death of MAHSA AMINI, the department announced Wednesday. “Forty days after the tragic death of Mahsa Amini, Iranians continue to bravely protest in the face of brutal suppression and disruption of internet access,” Under Secretary of the Treasury BRIAN E. NELSON said in a statement. The actions are paired with the measures from the State Department, which is designating six individuals within the Iranian government responsible for human rights abuses in light of demonstrations throughout the country. The response from the U.S. government comes as Iran levied sanctions against DW Farsi for the network's coverage of protests, the German network reported. Human rights groups estimate more than 200 people have been killed in Iran since the protests began.
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ANTONIO DE LOERA-BRUST has left the State Department, where he was a special assistant to the secretary, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He is now comms director at the United Farm Workers. — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ANDREW COHEN will join the German Marshall Fund as its first-ever managing editor. He previously served as director of communications at Pew Research Center and before that he held the same job at Bertelsmann Foundation. — Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia JOHN SULLIVAN is joining Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service as a distinguished fellow. — DOMINIC BARTON has joined the Eurasia Group as a strategic counselor. Barton was previously the global managing editor of McKinsey and Canada’s ambassador to China.
| | | — DEREK LEEBAERT, POLITICO: Our Foreign Policy Leaders Are a Danger to the World — International Crisis Group: Stop Fighting Blind: Better Use-of-Force Oversight in the U.S. Congress — ROBERT B. ZOELLICK, The Wall Street Journal: Russian Cash Can Keep Ukraine Alive This Winter
| | | — SecState Blinken will land in Ottawa Thursday for a two-day visit ahead of next week’s G-7 foreign ministers meeting in Germany. During his first official trip to Canada, Blinken will discuss the war in Ukraine, Iranian protests and the crisis in Haiti with the country’s leaders, including Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND and his counterpart Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY. — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: "No family man: Breaking Putin’s morality myth" — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: 2022 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: A Conversation with CHRIS INGLIS and ANNE NEUBERGER — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 10 a.m.: "Eurasia's Evolving Geoeconomics after the Ukraine War," — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 5:30 p.m.: "Breaking the Nuclear Taboo after 77 Years: Are Putin's Threats Credible, Crazy or Just Psywar?" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who reached her “breaking point” with us long ago. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who is unbreakable.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled.
Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
