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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward , Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
The United States has already given billions of dollars in assistance to Kyiv — but more funds will be crucial in the coming months and years, especially if Russia continues to damage Ukraine’s power plants and other critical infrastructure. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo | With help from Nahal Toosi, Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Ukraine is trying to get its message across to Republicans expecting to take hold of the House (and maybe Senate): Kyiv is going to need sustained economic assistance as well as weapons. Ukrainian leaders believe that a fully or partially GOP-led Congress won’t skimp on giving Kyiv military aid — despite what a few on the right are saying. In fact, Ukraine expects “even more robust” weapons packages if Republicans are in charge, DANIEL VAJDICH , a lobbyist in touch with Ukrainian officials, told your NatSec Daily host and NAHAL TOOSI . Here’s the issue: The Ukrainians are more concerned about Republicans paring back future economic aid to their country. The United States has already given billions of dollars in such assistance to Kyiv — but more funds will be crucial in the coming months and years, especially if Russia continues to damage Ukraine’s power plants and other critical infrastructure. “There’s a recognition in Kyiv that they’re going to have to work with Republicans to help them understand that support for Ukraine can’t just be about guns,” Vajdich said. That means money to erase Ukraine’s budget deficit, and to underwrite the energy sector and other civil services such as schools. The main message, then, is more money, fewer problems. It’s a message lawmakers are hearing directly from Ukrainian officials and through their representatives in Washington. A senior administration official said the Biden team wasn’t worried about support for Ukraine dropping should Republicans take either or both chambers of Congress. For example: MITCH MCCONNELL, the Senate minority leader, has consistently said the GOP would authorize more weapons for Ukraine. Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), a House Armed Services Committee member, said “Ukraine and the administration will need to explain and justify what is being requested, but I believe the far majority of our conference will do what is necessary to ensure Ukraine prevails.” But Democrats remain skeptical. Ukrainian officials should “definitely worry more” with Republicans leading in the House, said Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.), who also serves on HASC. House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY “has no control over his caucus and given the option of saving Ukraine or himself, he will choose himself.” Read Alex and Nahal’s full story .
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | | | | RUSSIA HITS UKRAINE HARD: Russian missile strikes took out critical infrastructure in several Ukrainian cities and left 80 percent of Kyiv without water supplies Monday morning, The Washington Post’s FRANCESCA EBEL reports . Though Ukraine’s air force said it shot down 44 of at least 50 missiles launched, “the goals of the strikes were achieved. All designated targets were hit,” Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement. The missiles were “long-range high-precision air and sea-based weapons,” the ministry said. The launches were an apparent retaliatory attack for what Moscow alleged was a Ukrainian drone attack on its Black Sea Fleet off the coast of the annexed Crimean Peninsula on Saturday. SAUDIS DEFEND OIL CUT: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates at a conference on Monday defended the OPEC+ oil production cut as AMOS HOCHSTEIN, a senior adviser on energy security at the State Department, warned of “economic uncertainty” ahead for the world, the Associated Press’ JON GAMBRELL reports . “We don’t owe it to anybody but us,” Prince ABDULAZIZ BIN SALMAN said at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference. “It was done for us, by us, for our future, and we need to commit ourselves to that.” At the conference, Hochstein criticsized the cut, which eventually “will rise too high and accelerate an economic downturn” internationally. In October, OPEC+ and its allies agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day beginning in November, a move widely regarded as a gift to Russia as Europe copes with inflation after sanctioning the country. “Oil is the only thing [Russia has] left in that economy … Putin has destroyed the rest of the economy,” Hochstein told CNBC on Monday. “All he’s got left is the stuff that comes out of the ground. He won’t sell his gas to Europe anymore, so all he has is oil, so that’s what funds this war.” UKRAINE GRAIN DRAIN: U.N. Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES is engaged in “intense contacts” aimed at bringing Russia back to the table after it suspended its agreement to allow the export of grain from Ukraine’s ports, as our own JONES HAYDEN reported over the weekend . The deal, brokered by the U.N. and Turkey in the summer, was designed to ensure that Ukrainian agricultural products can reach international markets. It’s considered critical to global food security since Ukraine is a major producer of foodstuffs. Turkish Defense Minister HULUSI AKAR “has been meeting with his counterparts” over the situation as well. Moscow’s pullback drew criticism from top U.S. officials, with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN blaming Russia for “weaponizing food” and President JOE BIDEN calling the move “purely outrageous.” SWITCHING SIDES: Russia is recruiting Afghan special forces soldiers who once fought alongside American troops before fleeing to Iran after the U.S.’s withdrawal from the region last year, the Associated Press’ BERNARD CONDON reports , citing three former Afghan generals. Moscow’s aim is to put together a “foreign legion” of elite fighters, offering steady monthly payments of $1,500 and promising safety for them and their families from the Taliban. A GOP report in August warned that the former Afghan commandos, trained by U.S. Navy SEALs and Army Green Berets, could give up information about U.S. tactics to foreign adversaries. “They don’t want to go fight — but they have no choice,” ABDUL RAOF ARGHANDIWAL , one of the former generals, told the AP, saying he has texted with about a dozen commandos. “They ask me, ‘Give me a solution? What should we do? If we go back to Afghanistan, the Taliban will kill us.’” Recruitment is being led by the Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization founded by Russian oligarch YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, Arghandiwal said. A former Afghan special forces commander who lived in Russia is also helping with the efforts, according to Hibatullah Alizai, the last Afghan army chief before the Taliban took over. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye .
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | ETHIOPIA PEACE TALKS EXTEND: Peace talks to end the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region have been extended into Monday, the Associated Press’ CARA ANNA reports , citing an official familiar with the arrangements. The discussions, facilitated by former Nigerian president OLUSEGUN OBASANJO, former South African deputy president PHUMZILE MLAMBO-NGCUKA and former Kenyan president UHURU KENYATTA, mark the highest-level effort to end the deadly two-year conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Talks began on Tuesday and were slated to end on Sunday. It was not immediately clear why the discussion was extended.
| | | RANSOMWARE SUMMIT: The White House will host representatives from 36 countries and the European Union for a summit on ransomware Monday and Tuesday, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report. It comes as the administration combats a stubborn digital threat that has persisted even after last year’s attack on a major East Coast fuel supply pipeline elevated digital extortion to a high-profile national security issue. The representatives of the Counter Ransomware Initiative — an intergovernmental partnership the White House formed last October — have been cooperating over the last year to arrest ransomware actors, improve potential victims’ defenses, trace the digital currencies that fuel extortion payments and apply pressure to states that fail to address ransomware activity within their borders. Over the course of the two days, CRI members will hear from a who’s who of top U.S. officials, including FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY, Deputy Treasury Secretary WALLY ADEYEMO, Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN and National Security Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN.
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, “At a Crossroads: America’s Defense Strategy” on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America’s national security. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | | MASSIVE MILITARY DRILL: The U.S. and South Korean air forces began their largest-ever joint drills on Monday despite speculation that they may be halted during the nationwide mourning period, NK News’ JEONGMIN KIM and SHREYAS REDDY report . The mourning period was called after a crowd surge in Seoul killed more than 150 people, including two Americans, on Saturday. Nonetheless, the Vigilant Storm exercise went on as planned and will continue through Friday, a military official said. Around 240 aircraft and thousands of military personnel from both countries will participate in the drills, performing roughly 1,600 sorties. ON-SITE INSPECTIONS: U.S. personnel have recently resumed on-site inspections of billions of dollars worth of weapons sent to Ukraine following the return of the U.S. defense attaché and office of defense cooperation personnel to the country, a senior defense official told reporters on Monday. The inspections are taking place “whenever and wherever the security conditions allow,” the official said, per our own LARA SELIGMAN. “In each instance, our team from Kyiv from the U.S. embassy has found the Ukrainians to be very transparent and able to support inspection as we were doing prior to the invasion,” added the official, who provided the briefing to reporters on condition of anonymity. The announcement comes days after the State Department released a new strategy aimed at preventing pro-Russian forces in Ukraine from getting hold of U.S. weapons meant for Kyiv. Over the next two years, State plans to train Ukrainian teams — and later officials in neighboring states — on how to find and document U.S. equipment, with a particular focus on anti-air and anti-armor missiles.
| | | MURPHY WANTS TWITTER REVIEW: Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) wants the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to probe Saudi Arabia's Kingdom Holding Company’s continued stake in Twitter. “We should be concerned that the Saudis, who have a clear interest in repressing political speech and impacting U.S. politics, are now the second-largest owner of a major social media platform,” Murphy tweeted . “There is a clear national security issue at stake and CFIUS should do a review.” “If this deal goes through, two of the most important U.S. social media platforms will be owned, in whole or in part, by China (TikTok) and Saudi Arabia (Twitter). This is a dangerous trend, and we don't have to accept it,” the senator continued. Earlier this month, The Washington Post’s JOSH ROGIN reported that Saudi Arabia sentenced a U.S. citizen to 16 years in prison over his tweets.
| | | BIDEN LOSES TEMPER: Tensions flared in a June phone call between when Biden lost his temper in a conversation with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, NBC News’ CAROL E. LEE, COURTNEY KUBE and DAN DE LUCE report . Just after the U.S. finalized $1 billion in military assistance for Ukraine, Zelenskyy continued to list weapons he needed, which frustrated Biden. Relations between both leaders have improved since the tense conversation, and Zelenskyy publicly thanked Biden for ongoing U.S. support. “I had an important conversation with U.S. President Biden today,” he said. “I am grateful for this support. It is especially important for our defense in Donbas.” The revelation comes as whispers continue throughout Washington of a worse-than-reported relationship between Washington and Kyiv. Biden getting frustrated with Zelenskyy adds another data point.
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: SAHAR HAFEEZ has left the White House where she served as director for international economics at the National Security Council. She is now a senior adviser at the Commerce Department. — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: TOBIAS HARRIS will join the German Marshall Fund as the Asia Program’s deputy director starting Tuesday. He was previously a senior fellow for Asia at the Center for American Progress. Harris will be taking over for KRISTI GOVELLA, the current deputy director of the Asia Program, who is heading to the University of Hawaii in November to stand up a new Center of Indo-Pacific Studies. — BRITTANY PARKER has been promoted to be deputy director for analysis at the office of the secretary of Defense. She most recently was a strategy adviser in the office. — MATT DUSS is now a visiting fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s American Statecraft program. He was previously the foreign policy adviser to Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.).
| | | — ZOE MARKS, FATEMEH HAGHIGHATJOO, and ERICA CHENOWETH, Foreign Affairs: Iran’s Women on the Frontlines — Editorial Board, Bloomberg News: Appoint a Watchdog for Ukraine Aid — SHALOM LIPNER, Foreign Policy: “ How Religious Zionism Threatens BENJAMIN NETANYAHU ”
| | | — The Naval Submarine League, 8:15 a.m.: Expanding The Reach Of The Undersea Force — The Atlantic Council, 8:30 a.m.: Conference on the future of the US-Pakistan relationship — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: "CISA Strategic Plan for 2023-2025: The Future of U.S. Cyber and Infrastructure Security" — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: "The Pentagon, Climate Change, and War" — The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: "The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review" — The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 2:15 p.m.: "Protests in Iran: What's Different This Time?" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has consistently denied our request for increased funds. And we thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who pays us with time and attention.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
