Will Biden meet with any African leader one-on-one?

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Friday Dec 02,2022 09:00 pm

Dec 02, 2022

By Alexander Ward , Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye

Morning sunlight strikes the flag flying above the White House.

Dozens of African leaders are set to attend a major gathering hosted this month by the White House, but so far they shouldn’t expect a one-on-one meeting with President Joe Biden. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

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With help from Nahal Toosi, Phelim Kine, Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman

Dozens of African leaders are coming to Washington in two weeks, but as of now it’s not looking like President JOE BIDEN will meet one-on-one with any of them.

Two U.S. officials said that the president isn’t currently scheduled to hold a bilateral session with a single African leader, even as the three-day U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit is set to begin on Dec. 13.

While such meetings could be organized in the coming days, including in less formal chats known as “pull-asides,” the lack of concrete plans stands in stark contrast to how the Biden administration has put together other gatherings, former U.S. officials say. It also could lead African leaders traveling thousands of miles to further conclude that the United States doesn’t care about their countries as much as China does — and that it prefers to treat them as a bloc instead of individual governments.

“We would not organize a summit with any other region of the world like this — and, as far as I can tell, have not,” said J. PETER PHAM, who was a top State Department official focused on Africa in the Trump administration, citing the Biden team’s previous summits with Latin American and Asian leaders.

A person familiar with the administration’s discussions said some in the White House were concerned that scheduling any bilateral sessions between Biden and his African counterparts would create friction since it wasn’t possible logistically to accommodate all requests. Around 50 leaders have been invited, and many would like to show audiences back home that they have a connection with the U.S. leader.

Burundi’s ambassador to the United States, JEAN DE DIEU NDIKUMANA , said in a brief phone conversation that African delegations remain “hopeful” that the White House will ultimately accommodate requests for bilateral meetings, even if they were short ones.

The African leaders are “crossing the ocean to come here,” the envoy emphasized.

This is the second such summit between a U.S. president and African leaders, and much of it will feature think-tank-like events on climate change, technology and trade at the Washington, D.C. Convention Center, but not every leader will have the opportunity to speak on a panel. At this point, the only real engagement they’re slated to have with Biden is during a leader-only dinner and group photo.

The Biden administration is upfront about its belief that America’s biggest long-term rival for global power is China, but China has made personalized, high-level engagement with African countries much more of a hallmark of its diplomacy.

Read Alex, Nahal and Phelim’s full story .

The Inbox

PUTIN WILLING TO TALK, NOT CONCEDE: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is open to diplomatic talks with the United States on ending the war in Ukraine, per Kremlin spokesperson, Reuters’ GUY FAULCONBRIDGE reports .

The Kremlin’s comments came after Biden suggested to French President EMMANUEL MACRON on Thursday that if Putin was ready to speak with him about ending the war — which could only be done by pulling troops from Ukraine — he would be ready to speak with him after consulting with European allies.

"The president of the Russian Federation has always been, is and remains open to negotiations in order to ensure our interests," spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV told reporters, with the caveat that Putin would not pull troops from Ukraine. However, Peskov said that “the special military operation is continuing.”

In an hour-long call on Friday, German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ told Putin that a diplomatic solution “including a withdrawal of Russian troops, must be reached as soon as possible,” according to the German government.

RUSSIAN OIL CAPPED: The European Union agreed on a deal to cap the price of Russian oil at $60 per barrel in the latest international effort to cut into Moscow’s oil revenue while still using the vital product, The Wall Street Journal’s LAURENCE NORMAN and ANDREW DUEHREN report .

The deal, which came after a last-minute push by Poland to lower the cap, will prohibit Western companies from insuring, financing or shipping oil from Moscow unless it’s sold below the agreed upon cap. Countries in the G-7 along with the E.U. and Australia are expected to quickly act on the deal and impose the cap by Monday.

Russian officials have threatened to cut off exports in response, but there have been no signs of retaliatory action since the decision.

COUNTER-TERRORISM ON HOLD: The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces said it had halted joint counter-terrorism operations with the United States and allies due to the ongoing Turkish offensive in Syria, Reuters’ ORHAN QEREMAN reports .

Turkey has ramped up its airstrikes on northern Syria in recent weeks as it prepares a ground invasion against Kurds in the area, which make up the majority of the SDF. In an interview with our own LARA SELIGMAN last month, the group’s commander Gen. MAZOLUM ABDI warned that an invasion would disrupt the fight against the Islamic State in Syria. But it may have longer lasting consequences, experts warn.

“This incursion points to the larger issue of insecurity over the future of the SDF,” NATASHA HALL , a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told NatSec Daily. “Other warring parties such as ISIS and the regime take advantage of this weakness when locals begin hedging their bets for a future without the SDF.”

MORE THAN 10K UKRAINIAN TROOPS KILLED: More than 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the beginning of Russia’s invasion into the country nine months ago, according to a top official, the Associated Press’ JAMEY KEATEN reports .

That figure — provided by MYKHAILO PODOLYAK, an adviser to Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, late Thursday — is far below what Western leaders had guessed.

The actual number could reach as high as 13,000 casualties, he said. In contrast, Gen. MARK MILLEY , the chair of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, last month said it was likely that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers had been killed and claimed the “same thing probably on the Ukrainian side.”

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN –– but not because he chose to participate. We noticed that he opted to down a red wine while watching the U.S. Men’s National Team defeat Iran 1-0 Tuesday, eschewing the more traditional game-day beer.

We contacted State’s spokesperson NED PRICE about this breach of fandom protocol. He confirmed Blinken’s drink preference at the Champions bar in Bucharest but wasn’t able to tell us which wine the secretary enjoyed. “A colleague ordered it for him so I couldn’t say for sure,” he said, clearly avoiding our penetrating line of questioning.

Fine, we replied, does Blinken have a favorite red? “Yes,” Price said, “but some things are State secrets. Pun intended.”

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 .

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye .

A message from Lockheed Martin:

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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

Flashpoints

COMING WEST BANK CRISIS?: Presumptive Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s deal to bring in far-right parties to his ruling coalition could exacerbate the crisis in the West Bank, The Washington Post’s SHIRA RUBIN reports.

The agreement puts BEZALEL SMOTRICH’s Religious Zionism party in charge of COGAT, the Israeli agency for Palestinian civil affairs, as Smotrich tried to become the next defense minister. He didn’t get the post, but his allies — who support annexation of the West Bank — will now be in charge of West Bank affairs.

“Opponents argue that elevating a Jewish supremacist — once suspected of terrorist activities and long openly hostile to the security collaborations with the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority — to the head of the Israeli army, would plunge an already combustible security crisis in the West Bank into an all-out war,” Rubin wrote.

Keystrokes

DHS TO PROBE HACKING GROUP: The Department of Homeland Security announced Friday that the agency's Cyber Safety Review Board will investigate the Lapsus$ hacking group.

“As cyber threats continue to evolve it is imperative that all organizations recognize that they are not invincible,” said CSRB Deputy Chair HEATHER ADKINS.

CSRB Chair ROB SILVERS described the hacking group to reporters as a global, extortion-focused group that has successfully executed attacks against "well-resourced companies".

Lapsus$ was responsible for breaching Uber’s systems in September, forcing the company to temporarily shut down internal communications.

The Complex

JOINT FIGHTER PROJECT: Japan, Italy and the United Kingdom are set to announce a deal next week to jointly develop a new advanced fighter, Reuters' TIM KELLY and NOBUHIRO KUBO reports.

The project marks the first time Japan has partnered with a country other than the United States on a major defense project.

The deal will likely help the U.K. benefit from an increased security role in Asia in tandem with its AUKUS partnership with the U.S. and Australia. Japan will also gain by increasing its ability to deter China’s growing military ambitions in the region.

HIMARS CONTRACT: The Army awarded Lockheed Martin a $431 million contract for more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, M142 launchers.

Per a news release, the contract “will allow the U.S. government to more rapidly replenish DoD stocks and support U.S. allies and partners.”

That’s a clear signal that the U.S. wants more HIMARS produced so it can both have them in its stockpile and have enough to send to Ukraine.

On the Hill

NDAA ENDGAME: A final version of the National Defense Authorization Act is close, but still not ready for prime time. Leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services committees had hoped the bill would be filed today ahead of a vote next week, but House Majority Leader STENY HOYER (D-Md.) said some “outstanding issues” mean we won’t see the compromise bill just yet.

Nonetheless, House leaders are ready to make quick work of the NDAA when it emerges. The House Rules Committee meets Monday afternoon to tee up floor debate and a final vote on the defense bill next week.

The Armed Services panels have already concluded their talks and handed the baton to party leaders in the House and Senate to iron out what unrelated bills might hitch a ride on the must-pass legislation.

Broadsides

NOT STRONG ENOUGH: Finnish Prime Minister SANNA MARIN believes Russia's war in Ukraine has exposed Europe’s excessive reliance on the U.S. for its security.

"I must be brutally honest with you; Europe isn't strong enough right now. We would be in trouble without the United States," Marin said in a Friday discussion at The Lowy Institute.

Marin has spoken with U.S. lawmakers and expressed that Europe must do more to support Ukraine in light of American military and humanitarian support.

Although Finland is still waiting to be admitted to NATO, the Nordic nation has already approved plans to increase 2023 defense spending to bolster its capabilities, such as more missiles for F-35 warplanes it purchased from the U.S.

Transitions

— JALINA PORTER has relaunched her boutique global comms advisory firm Jalina Porter Communications LLC. She most recently was principal deputy spokesperson at the State Department and in October completed executive education at Oxford University’s Said Business School.

— FRANK COLLINS is now the senior defense adviser for the Shipbuilders Council of America, the national association representing the U.S. shipbuilding, maintenance and repair industry. He previously served as CEO of United States Marine Preservation, a principal government relations representative for Ship Repair at BAE Systems Ship Repair and senior vice president at the United States Marine Repair.

What to Read

— STEPHEN WERTHEIM, The New York Times: Can America Really Envision World War III?

— STEPHEN POMPER and MICHAEL WAHID HANNA, Foreign Affairs: "How to End Yemen’s Forever War: Washington Can Help Broker a Lasting Peace"

— JOSEPH NYE, JR., Project Syndicate: War Over Taiwan?

Monday Today

— The Henry L. Stimson Center, 8:30 a.m.: “Voices from Japan: Japan’s National Security Strategy in the Era of Strategic Competition”

— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: “Carnegie Connects: Reassessment or Business as Usual in U.S.-Saudi Relations”

— The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 12:30 p.m.: "Russia's War in Ukraine: An End in Sight?"

— The Brookings Institution, 1 p.m.: "Nonstate armed actors in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Syria"

— The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: “2022 Central Europe Week: Partners and allies in a time of war”

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: The Convergence of National Security and Homeland Security: A Conversation with DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO N. MAYORKAS

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who refuses to meet with us one-on-one or at all.

And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who everyone wants to meet.

A message from Lockheed Martin: