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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Alexander Ward | | 
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz talks to German army Bundeswehr soldiers at a "Leopard 2" main battle tank during a training and instruction exercise. | Moritz Frankenberg/dpa via AP | With help from Lawrence Ukenye and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt If you’ve followed along with Germany’s tank talks, you’ll probably relate to this Slack exchange between a couple of our reporters late last week: “Guys I'm so confused.” “Everyone is.” (Yes, the “confused” one was Alex.) Over the past week, the natsec world has watched with vertigo as German officials relayed contradictory comments on whether they’d allow other countries to send its Leopard II tanks to Ukraine. There’s still no final word, although pressure is mounting from countries that want to pull the trigger. Last week, Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ told U.S. lawmakers in Davos that Germany won’t send or authorize the transfer of tanks to Ukraine until the United States agrees to give its own Abrams tanks. The same day, freshly minted Defense Minister BORIS PISTORIUS appeared not to know that Scholz and his vice minister had linked the two tanks. Yesterday, German Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK said Berlin “would not stand in the way” if Poland or other allies asked for permission. Then, a government spokesperson said such a request would have to be first discussed and decided in Germany's Federal Security Council. Today, only one thing is clear: Germany’s public position has been all over the place when the need for clarity — both strategically and in messaging — has mattered most. The Council of Foreign Relations’ LIANA FIX, who has tracked the Berlin blunderbuss closely, said Germany’s indecisiveness shows that the country’s leaders haven’t taken responsibility for their actions, and said they need to explain their thinking. “It’s a tragedy that Germany is one of the most important contributors in Ukraine but looks like the biggest roadblock after this drama,” she told NatSec Daily. Not to mention, Baerbock’s comment begs the question: Is anyone in the Scholz government calling the shots? With Germany seemingly incapable of conveying a clear message, it’s up to the United States to take the lead by sending their M1 Abrams tanks overseas, the Hudson Institute’s PETER ROUGH told NatSec Daily. Berlin’s hesitation “betrays an attitude that says ‘Let’s keep Ukraine in the fight rather than empower them to win it,’” Rough said. “We are the leader of the West … We need to work with the Germans rather than push them forward, if that’s what it takes to reassure them and get Leopard II into the fight.” Rough believes a fear of escalation in Ukraine is what’s holding German officials back. The Brookings Institution’s CONSTANZE STELZENMÜLLER also foresees Leopards being shipped in the near future and hopes Abrams follow suit, but attributed the delay to the chancellor’s concerns back home. “I suspect Scholz’s main concern is a split public opinion — but also that Germans are farther along than he gives them credit for,” Stelzenmüller told NatSec Daily. “His prevarications have done lasting damage to Germany‘s standing. And his own.”
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | MORE IRAN SANCTIONS: The U.S. and its allies today imposed new sanctions on Iran in the latest effort to pressure Tehran’s Islamist rulers as they face lingering domestic unrest, our own NAHAL TOOSI reports. The Treasury Department announced that the sanctions would target a foundation linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, five of its board members, four senior IRGC commanders and Iran’s deputy minister of intelligence and security. The action was coordinated with Britain and the European Union. The moves suggest that the U.S. and its allies believe Iran’s government remains unusually vulnerable due to an internal protest movement that began in mid-September. It’s the ninth round of U.S. sanctions related to Iran’s oppression of protesters. UKRAINE GAINS: Kyiv’s forces are taking ground around a strategic city in the eastern Luhansk region ahead of what’s expected to be a new Ukrainian counteroffensive to retake territory this spring, a senior U.S. military official told our own LARA SELIGMAN. While the front lines in the fight remain largely static during winter, the Pentagon is seeing Ukraine beginning to make progress. The strategic city, Kreminna, is seen as a gateway to Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, two key industrial centers in the Donbas region that Russia seized last summer. The gains come as the U.S. and Western allies drastically ramp up support for Kyiv ahead of the expected spring counteroffensive. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN alluded to the upcoming operation last week after a meeting of defense ministers at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, noting that now is the time for the West to provide additional arms and training Ukraine needs to smash through Russian lines. TURKEY SAYS NO TO NATO BID:Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN said he would not support Sweden’s NATO bid after demonstrators burned the Quran in Stockholm over the weekend, our own WILHELMINE PREUSSEN reports. “So you will let terror organizations run wild and then expect our support for getting into NATO. That’s not happening,” said Erdoğan, who has withheld support for Sweden and Finland's NATO bid for months. He also lambasted the Nordic nation for allowing the protests to happen outside the Turkish embassy. Sweden “won’t see any support from us” on the bid if they don’t respect Muslims, Erdoğan added. FBI OFFICIAL ARRESTED: Former top FBI official CHARLES McGONIGAL was arrested today after investigators discovered his ties to a Russian oligarch, ABC News’ LUKE BARR and AARON KATERSKY report. McGonigal and a court interpreter are being charged with attempting to get OLEG DERIPASKA, a Russian billionaire who has been sanctioned by the United States, off the sanctions list. He was arrested at JFK Airport on Saturday. He’s one of the highest-ranking former FBI agents ever charged with a crime, having served as the special agent in charge of counterintelligence in the agency’s New York Field Office before retiring in 2018. RUSSIA LIKELY BEHIND LETTER BOMBS: American and European officials believe that Russian military intelligence officers were likely behind the series of letter bombs delivered to prominent politicians in Spain late last year, The New York Times’ EDWARD WONG, JULIAN BARNES and ERIC SCHMITT report. The officers likely directed members of white supremacist militant group Russian Imperial Movement to carry out the campaign, which targeted the prime minister, defense minister and foreign diplomats in late November and early December. No one was killed in the attacks. Investigators believe Russian officers planned the bombings to show that Moscow could carry out such attacks across Europe, including in NATO members’ capitals, according to the U.S. officials. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | BIDEN DOCS PT. 3: More documents relating to President JOE BIDEN were found after investigators searched his home in Delaware for nearly 13 hours, our own CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO reported. The items recovered include six batches of records that contained an unspecified number of documents with classified markings. The search covered all working, living and storage spaces in the home, said BOB BAUER, Biden’s personal attorney. Bauer said the paperwork was from Biden’s time in the Senate and as vice president. Justice Department officials also took handwritten notes from the vice presidential years, he said.
NETANYAHU OUSTS ALLY: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU dismissed top government official ARYEH DERI after the nation’s Supreme Court ruled he was unfit for public office, The New York Times’ ISABEL KERSHNER reported.
For days, it was unclear whether Netanyahu would comply with the ruling or clash with the judiciary soon after forming his new government. It was a safe move on the prime minister’s part, as tens of thousands of Israelis have protested the plans to limit the judiciary’s powers in recent weeks. Still, Netanyahu wasn’t happy with removing his ally from office, and he didn’t mince words. The Supreme Court order was a “a regrettable decision that ignores the will of the people,” he said. He vowed to help Deri, who was found unfit due to a series of past criminal convictions, “continue to contribute to the state of Israel with your great experience and skills.” WE’RE ALL ‘FRIENDS’ HERE: South Africa’s foreign minister NALEDI PANDOR defended the government’s move to allow Russia and China to hold joint drills off the coast, saying it’s the "natural course of relations" to host such exercises with “friends,” Reuters’ CARIEN DUPLESSIS reports. Pandor made the comments during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV, a month before the planned drills between Russia and China. Opposition groups have criticized South African officials for cozying up to Russia since its invasion of Ukraine.
| | | MILLIONS EXPOSED IN INDIA DATA BREACH: A data leak with identifying information of millions of students and teachers in India was caused by a security lapse in a mandatory app operated by the country’s education ministry, Wired’s VITTORIA ELLIOTT and DHRUV MEHROTRA report. User data was stored in the Digital Infrastructure for Knowledge Sharing app, known as Diksha, which became widely used by students during the height of the pandemic to access coursework from home. But a cloud server was left unprotected, exposing the data to hackers and scammers. Those files include full names, phone numbers and email addresses for more than one million teachers, spanning hundreds of thousands of schools in every state in India. Another file contained information on more than 600,000 students, including full names and information on where they went to school.
| | | U.S. AND ISRAEL HOLD MASSIVE DRILL: The United States and Israel held a major joint military exercise today, signaling the alliance’s strength to Iran despite concerns over Natanyahu’s new far-right government. The live-fire exercise, named Juniper Oak, included more than 140 U.S. aircraft with fighters, bombers and refueling aircraft. “It’s hard to overstate how massive an exercise this is,” CNAS’ JONATHAN LORD told NatSec Daily. “It certainly sends a message to Iran that the U.S. and Israel are capable of jointly threatening the regime should it continue down the path towards a nuclear weapon.” The drills also demonstrate to Israel’s emerging defense partners in the region what they could aspire to, in terms of advanced military capability and joint exercises, if they buddy up with Israel and the United States, Lord said. MONEY MEETINGS:Five top Pentagon contractors will report their fourth-quarter earnings this week, and the twin concerns of inflation and potential spending cuts in the Republican House will be top of mind, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. On Tuesday, we’ll hear from Raytheon Technologies, which will likely get questions from Wall Street analysts on whether the Air Force is nearing a decision on upgrading the existing F-35 engine — made by Pratt & Whitney — or entirely replacing the propulsion system. Lockheed Martin also reports earnings on Tuesday, and it’s expected that analysts will ask about the protest Sikorsky (a division of Lockheed) and Boeing filed after the Army awarded the Black Hawk replacement contract to Textron. On Wednesday, General Dynamics will likely get questions at its earnings call regarding submarine and surface ship delays. Also up on Wednesday is Boeing, which may get questions about how inflation is affecting charges on fixed-price programs such as the KC-46 tanker, the MQ-25 carrier refueling drone and the T-7A trainer. Finally, Northrop Grumman will report its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday. Expect questions on its $1 billion tax hike as industry was not able to persuade Congress to repeal the research and development tax law by year’s end.
| | | TAIWAN ON THE SCHEDULE: House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY is expected to visit Taiwan later this year, Punchbowl News’ ANDREW DESIDIERO and JAKE SHERMAN report. McCarthy’s much anticipated trip is expected to happen sometime in the spring, according to Biden administration officials. The Pentagon is in the early stages of planning for the visit, which will likely be a headache if the run-up to NANCY PELOSI’s trip last year is any indication. A handful of other lawmakers have taken to Taipei in recent months to show solidarity, as China ramps up its aggression toward the island nation. Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) was there last week and later told NatSec Daily that “every member of Congress should visit Taiwan.”
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | SHERMAN SEES ISRAELI MISTAKES: Rep. BRAD SHERMAN (D-Calif.) has been among Israel’s strongest allies in Congress. But Netanyahu’s new government is concerning, he said, and could cause U.S. support for the nation to wane. “I see the mistakes the current government is making,” Sherman, a top-ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Haaretz. Sherman pointed to officials in the Israeli government, rather than actions already taken, as a major issue. Not to mention, he said, Israel doesn’t have many allies to fall back on. “Before the current government does anything, just the makeup of that government is corrosive to support in the Democratic caucus,” he said, adding that Israel’s only other ally is Guatemala. “It cannot afford to only have half of one friend. The fact is they need the United States. They need us in international forums, they need us for so many reasons. Those who risk U.S. support should know what they’re doing.” He’s not the first member of Congress to suggest that Israel could soon get the cold shoulder on Capitol Hill. Last week, Sen. JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.) refused to meet with representatives from the far-right parties during a Congressional delegation. Sens. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) have also spoken out against Netanyahu and other Israeli officials.
| | | — Big news on the NatSec Daily front: Our talented LAWRENCE UKENYE, who has been the true mastermind behind this project for the last six months or so, has been named as a POLITICO Fellow for the 2023-2024 rotation! Send him your congratulations here and follow him on Twitter. — CHRIS HIPKINS was confirmed as New Zealand’s next prime minister on Sunday. He most recently managed social development and employment portfolios as one of the government’s top ministers. Hipkins chose CARMEL SEPULONI as his deputy. — JINYOUNG ENGLUND is now acting deputy chief digital and AI officer for digital services at the Defense Department. She most recently was chief of staff for the DOD Chief Digital and AI Office Digital Services team.
| | | |   | | | | | | — SETH JONES, Center for Strategic and International Studies: Empty Bins in a Wartime Environment: The Challenge to the U.S. Defense Industrial Base — Editorial Board, The Washington Post: How to bring Putin and his henchmen to justice — Rep. TED LIEU, The New York Times: I’m a Congressman Who Codes. A.I. Freaks Me Out.
| | | — The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 8 a.m.: 2023 SciTech Forum — The Institute for Defense and Government Advancement, 8:55 a.m.: Homeland Security Week Conference — The Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: Japan in 2023 — The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.: Coffee and Conversation with LINDA WEISSGOLD — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: Aerospace Nation: Lt Gen JAMES DAWKINS & Maj Gen MICHAEL LUTTON — The Heritage Foundation, 12 p.m.: The Iran Threat: What to Expect in 2023 Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who “would not stand in the way” of being assigned to edit different writers. We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who is with us ‘til the end. And a huge happy birthday to Alex! Send him an email, he’ll love it.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
