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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | | 
The German government is disputing NatSec Daily’s reporting that Olaf Scholz told U.S. lawmakers on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos that he wouldn’t authorize the transfers of Leopards until Biden sent the Abrams. | Martin Meissner/AP Photo | With help from Gabriel Rinaldi, Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The United States and Germany are in a small war of words just days before OLAF SCHOLZ comes to visit President JOE BIDEN at the White House. Speaking to ABC News’ “This Week” program on Sunday, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said that Biden originally decided against sending M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine: “His military told [him] that they would not be useful on the battlefield in this fight.” Biden’s defense aides did say German-made Leopard II tanks would be helpful to Kyiv. But the problem, per Sullivan, was “the Germans told the president that they would not be prepared to send those Leopards into the fight … until the president also agreed to send Abrams.” So Biden decided that “in the interest of alliance unity and to ensure that Ukraine got what it wanted,” the U.S. would send the Abrams “down the road if you send Leopards now.” Case closed, right? Not for Germany. Germany’s deputy government spokesperson WOLFGANG BÜCHNER refuted Sullivan’s contention Monday, saying that Washington and Berlin engaged in “constructive talks in which care was always taken by both sides to come to a joint approach.” Büchner then reiterated a comment by chief government spokesperson STEFFEN HEBESTREIT that Scholz had never demanded that Abrams make their way to Ukraine alongside the Leopards. “At no time … has there been a junket or a demand that one must happen so that the other can happen,” Hebestreit previously said. There’s no need to correct that or other similar statements, Büchner emphasized. The German government is disputing NatSec Daily’s reporting that Scholz told U.S. lawmakers on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos that he wouldn’t authorize the transfers of Leopards until Biden sent the Abrams. Rep. SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.) was in the room and confirmed on the record that that’s what Scholz said (three other people told us about the conversation, but on the condition of anonymity). This isn’t exactly the way to show “alliance unity” ahead of an important visit. LIANA FIX, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, thinks the U.S. is trying to send a message. “It seems they don’t want Berlin to feel too comfortable or to think they have forgotten this episode,” she said. It’s also possible that “Berlin’s denials and spins to the story were quite upsetting to them.” In the meantime, senior administration officials are trying to set expectations about when Abrams tanks will be on the Ukrainian battlefield. “It's not going to be a matter of weeks,” Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH told reporters at a breakfast event last week. “But I think there are options that are less than two years, less than a year and a half. But again, we have to look at the pros and cons of each of them.”
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | BURNS AFTER READING: Chinese President XI JINPING has instructed his military to be ready to invade Taiwan in four years, though he may believe it’s impossible, CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS said Sunday on CBS’ Face the Nation. “We do know, as has been made public, that President Xi has instructed the PLA, the Chinese military leadership, to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan, but that doesn’t mean that he’s decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well,” Burns told CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “Our judgment at least is that President Xi and his military leadership have doubts today about whether they could accomplish that invasion,” he continued, citing Russia’s struggles against Ukraine as one reason for Beijing’s pause. The CIA chief also reaffirmed U.S. officials' belief that China is considering sending weapons to Russia, though they “don't see that a final decision has been made yet, and we don't see evidence of actual shipments of lethal equipment.” Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director JEN EASTERLY warned Monday that China will likely have fewer reservations about launching cyberattacks on U.S. critical infrastructure in the event of an invasion of Taiwan than Russia has felt over Ukraine, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). If China attempts to take the island nation, they “are going to want to make sure they affect the unity that has been forged between the U.S. and our international partners, the unity that has been forged within the U.S. by creating things like panic and chaos," to divide U.S. opinions on supporting Taiwan, Easterly said. "Russia, probably for fear of escalation, held off on going after our critical infrastructure.” ISRAELI RAMPAGE REACTION: Israel sent hundreds of additional troops to the West Bank on Monday, a day after settlers rampaged through a Palestinian town. The destruction came after a Palestinian gunman killed two Israelis in an ambush in the northern West Bank, the Associated Press’ MAJDI MOHAMMED and ILAN BEN ZION report. Soon after, groups of settlers took to the Palestinian town of Hawara, torching cars and buildings. Israeli leaders’ responses to the rampage highlighted tension in the nation’s new far-right government. Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and President ISAAC HERZOG urged settlers to avoid such violence, while TZVIKA FOGHEL, a lawmaker in the Jewish Power party, said the response would deter future Palestinian attacks: “I see the result in a very good light.” CONSCRIPTS STRUGGLING IN ADVANCE: Military analysts believe Russia is increasingly relying on thousands of inexperienced conscripts to push its spring offensive forward — and it’s not going too well for Moscow, The New York Times’ ANDREW KRAMER reports. With pressure from the Kremlin to regain momentum on the frontline, the Russian military has made a series of futile attacks in the Donbas region which are increasingly viewed as the best the exhausted troops have to offer. Russia is running low on artillery shells and missiles, and many of its most experienced units have been decimated. Now, young conscripts have been tasked with heading the offensive, analysts believe, and Moscow is likely to fall short of its objectives. “By how they move,” a Ukrainian soldier told the Times, “I see they are not professional.” YELLEN IN UKRAINE: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN made a surprise visit to Kyiv Monday, just over a week after Biden made the dangerous trip himself. “I bring to Kyiv a clear message from President Biden and the American people: We will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes,” Yellen said during a meeting with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. On Friday, the U.S. announced a new $10 billion aid package to Ukraine to support energy and budget costs, as well as $2 billion in security assistance. The U.S. has so far provided Ukraine with close to $50 billion aid, Yellen said Monday in Kyiv. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 3/1 TO DISCUSS AMERICAN PRIVACY LAWS: Americans have fewer privacy rights than Europeans, and companies continue to face a minefield of competing state and foreign legislation. There is strong bipartisan support for a federal privacy bill, but it has yet to materialize. Join POLITICO on 3/1 to discuss what it will take to get a federal privacy law on the books, potential designs for how this type of legislation could protect consumers and innovators, and more. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | ‘UNIVERSAL BASELINE TARIFFS’: Former President DONALD TRUMP is proposing tariffs “on most imported goods” from foreign producers, according to a new release. The tariffs could increase “if other countries manipulate their currency or otherwise engage in unfair trading practices.” Trump argues that increased tariffs on foreign products means taxes on Americans go down. Of course, higher-priced products mean the cost gets pushed to consumers, not the foreign company. HALEY TO CUT FOREIGN AID: NIKKI HALEY vowed to “cut every cent in foreign aid for countries that hate us” in a Friday night New York Post op-ed that launched a cycle on this issue for the candidate. Throughout the weekend, Haley argued that countries like Iraq, China, Cuba and Belarus shouldn’t receive any of the $46 billion in total foreign aid the U.S. had obligated in 2022. “The number one thing I would do is stop giving foreign aid to our enemies,” she said during a Sunday Fox News appearance. “You chant ‘Death to America,’ you get no aid,” she tweeted Sunday. It makes sense why Haley would pick this fight. Americans generally like the concept of foreign aid but hate paying for it. And slashing foreign aid is something Trump talked of doing all the time and did in the case of three Central American countries over migration issues. ‘HOW I LEARN’: VIVEK RAMASWAMY didn’t know what the nuclear triad was when asked about it in a Monday morning interview with HUGH HEWITT. “Are you talking about our new axis of evil?” the candidate said in response. Hewitt told him the triad stood for the air, sea and land legs of America’s nuclear capabilities. “I have to say I’m not familiar with that,” Ramaswamy said. “I hope I will bring a fresh perspective” to national security, adding “I’m a fast study.” Ramaswamy said he plans to tape when he gets briefed on issues and then put it out as a podcast so that Americans can see “how I learn.” Ramaswamy also hit Israeli Netanyahu for exercising “undue executive power” over the judiciary law roiling the country. “That’s a concern, but I don’t know enough to offer criticism of it.” Hewitt’s takeaway from that part of the interview on Twitter: “He’s humble about what he needs to learn and that’s to the good.”
| | | HEAD IN THE CLOUD: The Commerce Department is getting back to work on a Trump-era presidential mandate that seeks to limit foreign hackers’ ability to stage their attacks on U.S. cloud infrastructure, a senior administration official told our friends over at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report. Passed in the final days of the Trump administration, Executive Order 13984 would require cloud providers like Google, Amazon and Microsoft to implement stricter measures to verify the identity of their users — what is often referred to as “know your customer” regulations. However, the effort to implement the order stalled amid the presidential turnover and a funding shortfall in the Commerce Department office overseeing the order, a Department spokesperson told MC in a statement. Foreign hackers routinely rent U.S. cloud infrastructure because it is easier to blend in with normal-seeming internet traffic from an IP address in the U.S., the official said. Staging attacks within the U.S. also allows them to exploit a blindspot for U.S. Cyber Command and the NSA, which are prohibited from spying on U.S. networks.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | NEW HIRE: Top Rolls-Royce executive THOMAS BELL will begin serving as CEO of Leidos in May, the company announced Monday. Bell will succeed ROGER KRONE, who served in the post since 2014, on May 3. He currently serves as the president of Rolls-Royce Defense, and chairman and CEO of Rolls-Royce North America. Before that, he was Boeing’s senior vice president of global sales and marketing for defense, space and security. Krone will continue to serve as an adviser through July to ensure a smooth transition, the company said.
| | | CHU COMMENTS ‘OUT OF BOUNDS’: Leaders of the House’s new select committee on China defended Rep. JUDY CHU (D-Calif.) after Rep. LANCE GOODEN (R-Texas) questioned her loyalty to the U.S. because of her Chinese heritage, our own DAVID COHEN reported Sunday afternoon. “One of my colleagues, unfortunately, attacked Judy Chu, the first Chinese American Congresswoman in the United States Congress, saying that somehow she’s not loyal to the United States. I find that offensive as an Asian American myself,” Rep. RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.) said on CBS’ Face the Nation, referring to Gooden’s criticism last week. Speaking alongside Krishnamoorthi, Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), the committee chair, agreed with him: “We should not question anybody’s loyalty to the United States. I think that is out of bounds.” On Fox News last week, Gooden said he questions Chu’s “loyalty or competence,” responding to the California lawmaker’s defense of Biden appointee DOMINIC NG. He also said Chu should be barred from access to classified information.
| | | CRIMEA’S ‘RED LINE’ MYTH: Lithuania’s foreign minister seemingly pushed back on Western officials’ claims that Ukrainian attempts to take Crimea would lead to a wider Russian response. “Myth 4: Crimea is a red line for Putin,” GABRIELIUS LANDSBERGIS wrote in a Twitter thread. “Reality: Putin has announced many red lines. He threatened huge consequences if Ukraine’s allies sent any help at all, but his red lines keep evaporating.” His comments come a couple weeks after Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told a group of experts that Crimea is a “red line” for Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. Putin sees Crimea — which was seized from Ukraine in 2014 — as fully part of Russia. Blinken doesn’t consider a push to retake Crimea to be a wise move at this time, according to two people with knowledge of the discussion. “Internationally agreed borders must be respected without fear,” Landbergis wrote. “Crimea is Ukraine” –– a position the U.S. shares.
| | | — HELEN ZHANG is now director of the International Strategy Forum at Schmidt Futures. She most recently was global public policy manager for Google Search and is also co-founder of Intrigue Media, which produces the International intrigue newsletter. — LANDON HEID is now a tech policy professional staff member for the House Select Committee on China. He most recently was a tech policy officer for technology competition in the Office of China Coordination at the State Department. — KELSIE WENDELBERGER is now a foreign service officer at the U.S. Embassy in Qatar working on Afghan affairs. She most recently worked at the State Department in Washington on the Pakistan desk. — MARC CARLSON was appointed as chief revenue officer at the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue. He was previously a senior adviser in the State Department. — ELIZABETH KENNEDY TRUDEAU is now a senior adviser to the CEO and director of external affairs at the U.S. Agency for Global Media. She previously was acting assistant secretary for global public affairs at State. — COURTNEY MASON is now a program coordinator at the Council on Foreign Relations. She most recently was an engagement manager at B&S Europe.
| | | |   | | | | | | — ALEXANDER BURNS, POLITICO: Why Can’t Democrats Explain Themselves on China? — Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction: Why the Afghan Security Forces Collapsed — LYDIA POLGREEN, The New York Times: I Went to Syria, the Country That Remade Our World, and This Is What I Saw
| | | — SecState Blinken will head to Central and South Asia on Tuesday for talks that will place him in proximity to his Chinese and Russian counterparts. Blinken will travel to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and India from Tuesday to March 3. While there, he’ll meet with leaders during the C5+1 summit before participating in the G-20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, which China’s QIN GANG and Russia’s SERGEY LAVROV are expected to attend. — Billington CyberSecurity, 8 a.m.: Executing DoD's Cybersecurity Mission — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: International Response to the Earthquake and How Will Turkey Move Forward? — The Brookings Institution, 9:30 a.m.: Discussion with Assistant Attorney General for National Security MATTHEW OLSEN on reauthorization of FISA Section 702 — House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, 10 a.m.: Open panel with leaders of prominent think tanks — The Arab Center, 10 a.m.: The Aftermath of the Syria-Turkey Earthquake: Humanitarian Crises and Geopolitical Challenges — The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies, 1 p.m.: America's Expanding Semiconductor Export Controls — The Center for a New American Security, 4:30 p.m.: Book discussion on “Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence" Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who won’t wait until 2027 to invade this newsletter. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is always ready for battle.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
