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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks via video link to the 2023 Munich Security Conference on Feb. 17 in Munich, Germany. | Johannes Simon/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Programming Note: We’ll be off this Monday for Presidents' Day but will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday. MUNICH, Germany — Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and Europe’s two most powerful leaders had similar messages at the Munich Security Conference: It’s time to focus more on making and sending weapons. That’s a bold answer to one of the biggest questions being asked at the annual gathering this year: After 12 months of war, how much more can Europe take? The continent, alongside the U.S., has provided Ukraine with the weapons it requested to push back VLADIMIR PUTIN’s forces. But that effort has stretched Europe’s defense-industrial base thin, and it’s unclear nations as a whole can keep up with the insatiable demand. Zelenskyy aimed to rally the West to continue providing Ukraine’s “David” with the slings required to slay Russia’s “Goliath,” in his words. “Speed is crucial,” he said, because Putin “wants the world to slow down.” German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ, speaking immediately after the Ukrainian leader, called on Europe to develop a “high-performing arms industry” that can churn out the materials and equipment regional nations want. “We need a permanent production of the most important weapons we are using,” he said, with European countries “all work[ing] in the same direction.” French President EMMANUEL MACRON followed, booming that it behooved Europe as a whole “to invest more in defense. If we want peace, we need the means to achieve it.” That wasn’t just for the continent’s sake but for Ukraine’s. A stronger Europe made for a stronger partner for Kyiv, perhaps giving the capital leverage for if and when peace talks with Russia become acceptable for both sides. "Production capacities need to be ramped up," he said. There will be no peace in Europe until the “Russian matter has been solved.” NatSec Daily must admit that we didn’t expect so much defense-industry talk. Conferences like this tend to keep the conversation broad as speakers deliver paeans for the “liberal international order” or the need for the “international community” to remain united. The specificity on the conference’s first day, though, underscored the sense of concern and urgency Europe feels about the weapons-production problem. The only thing in the air that’s stronger is the smell of the mustard and sauerkraut on Alex’s many bratwursts.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | ‘THAT COULD BE ONE OF OUR BALLOONS’: The object shot down by American forces over Yukon last weekend may have belonged to an Illinois hobby group, a member told Matt on Friday. In a blog post earlier in the week, the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade said one of its balloons went “missing in action” in the same region of Yukon where the U.S. military shot down one of the three unknown objects, as Matt and LEE HUDSON reported late Thursday night. “When I heard that [it was a] silver object with a payload attached to it, that could be one of our balloons,” the member said. But no one can be sure unless you “go through the Yukon and trudge through the snow.” On Thursday, President JOE BIDEN said the objects are “most likely balloons” that don’t pose a threat. A small group of Pentagon officials during the Trump administration also monitored objects, now suspected to be data-collecting balloons, but didn’t report because they weren’t sure what they were, former officials told The Wall Street Journal’s VIVIAN SALAMA. The White House was kept in the dark even as intelligence officials worried the objects were sent from China to test radar-jamming systems. The Biden administration unveiled the past detections, but said it was unlikely the Trump administration knew about them. SENIOR DOD OFFICIAL IN CHINA: The Pentagon’s top China official arrived in Taiwan Friday for a rare visit, per the Financial Times’ DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO, coming at a time when Washington-Beijing relations have soured following the spy balloon brouhaha. MICHAEL CHASE, the deputy assistant secretary of Defense, is the most senior Pentagon official to visit Taiwan since 2019. He was in Mongolia just before landing on the self-governing island. That visit may sour a potential meeting between Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN with his Chinese counterpart WANG YI at the Munich Security Conference. AN EYE ON AID: Oversight officials responsible for tracking more than $110 billion in U.S aid to Ukraine want to send auditors and investigators into the war zone to better monitor the assistance, The Wall Street Journal’s WARREN STROBEL and GORDON LUBOLD report. Inspectors general from the Pentagon, State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development told WSJ that they’ve been able to track aid remotely using personnel based in Washington, Poland and Germany. But after a trip by the officials to Kyiv last month, they want to deploy 177 auditors and investigators to Ukraine. “I think we have been as creative and you know, out of the box, forward-leaning with the oversight we’ve been able to accomplish so far. But for real comprehensive, robust oversight, it can’t be done remotely,” NICOLE ANGARELLA, acting deputy USAID inspector general, told WSJ. “The closer we are, the more comprehensive oversight will be.” Monitoring the aid includes ensuring that U.S. weapons aren’t diverted, taxpayer funds aren’t siphoned off and that the aid programs are functioning as intended. The push for more eyes on the ground comes as Ukraine battles corruption among top officials in its own country, in an effort to show allies it will responsibly handle assistance provided. IT’LL BE OFFICIAL OFFICIAL: Finland’s Parliament on Friday approved of the government’s proposal to join NATO and is likely to vote to enter the alliance on Feb. 28,Finnish MP ELINA VALTONEN told NatSec Daily on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. The Parliament’s green light will make Finland’s NATO bid officially official, and the step the government is taking is more pro forma and administrative than anything else. But it’s also an important symbolic move, especially as Hungary and Turkey have yet to approve of Finland’s (and Sweden’s) accession. Valtonen, who said she “was for Finland joining NATO before it was sexy,” is glad the country is moving forward with joining the alliance. She expects more than the 188 Parliament members who voted for Finland’s application last May will support the formal proposal. The Foreign Affairs Committee member said she respects the Parliaments and her colleagues in Hungary and Turkey, but is perplexed why they haven’t just said “you’re in” to the Scandinavian nations. “I don’t know what we’re waiting for,” she said. And if you want to learn more about Valtonen… DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring the Finnish MP, who told us that she really enjoys dry martinis. When we asked where she had the best one, she mentioned it was at a bar in Detroit, though she couldn’t remember the name of it. She was on a State Department-sponsored trip to the U.S. for young European leaders when she had that sweet, sweet nectar. She hopes to go back to the city because she learned a lot — and also for that drink. Kippis, minister! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | FOX NEWS PRIVATELY BASHED TRUMP’S ‘BIG LIE’: Some of Fox News’ top media stars quietly said that former President DONALD TRUMP’s false claims of a stolen 2020 election were bunk. A court filing unveiled Thursday night as part of Dominion Voting Systems’ $1.6 billion lawsuit against the right-wing network featured disparaging messages by TUCKER CARLSON, SEAN HANNITY and LAURA INGRAHAM, CNN’s OLIVER DARCY reports. RUPERT MURDOCH, chair of the Fox Corporation, even floated the idea of having the three figures appear together to declare Biden the winner. That “would go a long way to stop the Trump myth that the election [was] stolen,” Murdoch said, per the filing. The news could damage one of Trump’s central election arguments: that he should win in 2024 because he was the rightful winner in 2020 (narrator: he wasn’t).
| | | MALICIOUS INCIDENT: The FBI contained a cyber attack on the agency’s computer system used in child sexual exploitation investigations, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports. “This is an isolated incident that has been contained,” the statement read. “As this is an ongoing investigation, the FBI does not have further comment to provide at this time.” That attack isn’t the first time a major U.S. agency has faced a cyberattack. The FBI previously responded to the 2020 Solarwinds breach involving Russian hackers who gained access to around a dozen U.S. federal agencies for at least a year for espionage efforts. The Justice Department, which the FBI is a part of, was among the agencies breached.
| | | SMALL ITEMS ONLY: The war in Ukraine has led to insatiable European demand for U.S.-produced weapons, Reuters’ MIKE STONE reports, with shoulder-fired missiles, air defenses, artillery and drones topping the wish list. “Countries close to Russia like Poland, Finland and Germany are striking deals to build U.S. weapons in Europe, negotiating new deals to buy arms and looking to speed up existing contracts,” Stone writes. The takeaway is that European governments aren’t seeking the big-ticket items like jets and tanks right now — they want less-advanced and cheaper weapons that have proved useful on the Ukrainian battlefield.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | PUSH FOR JETS TO UKRAINE: A bipartisan group of lawmakers is pressing Biden to send F-16 warplanes to Kyiv, saying such a move could be “decisive,” our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. Five House members argued modern jets — which Kyiv has sought, but the administration has so far not agreed to — “could prove decisive for control of Ukrainian airspace this year” in a Thursday letter to Biden obtained by POLITICO. “The provision of such aircraft is necessary to help Ukraine protect its airspace, particularly in light of renewed Russian offensives and considering the expected increase in large-scale combat operations,” the lawmakers wrote. The letter was organized by Maine Democrat JARED GOLDEN. Also signing on were Democrats JASON CROW of Colorado and CHRISSY HOULAHAN of Pennsylvania and Republicans TONY GONZALES of Texas and MIKE GALLAGHER of Wisconsin. OVERSIGHT, CONDUCTED: U.S.-provided weapons to Ukraine are being delivered in “an expeditious manner,” Rep. JOHN GARAMENDI (D-Calif.), a House Armed Services Committee member who just returned from a CODEL to Poland and Romania, told NatSec Daily. The bipartisan quintet of lawmakers, led by HASC Chair Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), traveled to Eastern Europe to get a sense of the supply chains and logistics required to transfer munitions and other equipment to Kyiv’s forces. Per Garamendi, “we left with a clear understanding of the safeguards that are in place to ensure every item reaches the frontlines in an expeditious manner to support Ukraine as it fights to defend its sovereignty.” Garamendi also said he expects Biden, who is headed to Europe early next week to commemorate the one-year anniversary of the Ukraine war, to “gather an updated needs assessment when he is on the ground so the U.S. can continue supporting the people of Ukraine.” HELPING HAND: A bipartisan group of senators introduced a bill on Thursday to bolster support for families advocating for the release of loved ones wrongfully detained abroad. The Supporting Americans Wrongfully or Unlawfully Detained Abroad Act, co-sponsored by BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the chair and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, would allow the State Department to cover the costs of travel for to D.C. for family members of those who are wrongfully detained. It also would provide mental health services to families and detainees. “This bill is a critical show of support for families suffering from an unimaginable nightmare,” Menendez said in a statement. “We need to do everything possible to ensure that families of Americans wrongfully detained abroad are empowered [to] advocate for the return of their loved ones.”
| | | RUSSIA RAGES OVER NULAND CRIMEA COMMENTS: The Kremlin criticized the State Department’s No. 3 for saying Ukraine had a right to strike “legitimate targets” inside Crimea. During an online Thursday event at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Under Secretary of State VICTORIA NULAND said, "I’m not going to prejudge where the Ukrainians choose to fight or how they choose to deal with Crimea over the short term, medium term, or long term. We recognize Crimea as Ukraine.” Russian positions in the annexed peninsula are “legitimate targets, Ukraine is hitting them, and we are supporting that.” That angered the U.S.-sanctioned Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson MARIA ZAKHAROVA, who said “American warmongers … incite the Kyiv regime to further escalate the war.” Of course, the Biden administration has said as early as August that it supported Ukrainian strikes on Crimea since the U.S. recognized it as Ukrainian territory. Nuland’s comments came hours after Alex and PAUL McLEARY reported that Blinken told a group of experts that Crimea was Putin’s red line. However, he said that the decision whether to retake Crimea was Ukraine’s to take, not America’s. On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Friday, Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, told Paul that he has deep concerns over the prospect of Ukrainian forces waging a bloody fight to retake Crimea. “I think there’s more of a consensus out there that people realize that Ukraine is not going to militarily retake Crimea,” Smith said. HALTING NOMINEES: Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) plans to block Biden’s Pentagon nominees in response to an October DoD memorandum that pays for service members to travel for abortions. “This is an illegal expansion of DoD authority and a gross misuse of taxpayer dollars — and I will hold him accountable,” Tuberville wrote in a statement. “The American people want a military focused on national defense, not facilitating a progressive political agenda.” The new policy angered many Republicans, who considered introducing amendments in last year’s National Defense Authorization Act. Tuberville joins a growing list of GOP senators looking to block Biden’s picks as other Republicans have looked to slow-walk nominees over the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan among other issues.
| | | |   | | | | | | — KEREN HAJIOFF has joined the Foundation for Defense of Democracies as a senior adviser on Middle East affairs and strategic communications. She served as the international spokesperson in the governments of Israeli Prime Ministers NAFTALI BENNETT and YAIR LAPID. — CELIA MORTÉ will begin serving as a military legislative assistant for Sen. JOHN KENNEDY (R-La.) on Tuesday. She held the same position in Sen. KEVIN CRAMER’s (R-N.D.) office.
| | | — HANS VON DER BURCHARD, POLITICO: Meet Olaf Scholz’s shadow foreign minister — ELI LAKE, Commentary: The Iraq War, 20 Years Later — Sen. CHUCK SCHUMER, The Washington Post: A Unified U.S. Senate is a Force for Freedom in the World
| | | — The Atlantic Council, 2 a.m.:One year after the invasion: Rebuilding Ukraine’s nuclear energy capacity — The Hudson Institute, 8:20 a.m.: Keeping Ukraine on the Path to Victory — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: War stories: How Ukraine’s media are confronting Russia’s aggression — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: Russia’s influence in Africa, a security perspective — The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 10 a.m.: The Iraq War Series: The Run-Up to the War — New America, 10 a.m.: How to Rebuild Ukraine, and Make Russia Pay for It — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 10:30 a.m.: A Mid-Term Report Card for Biden’s North Korea Policy — The Middle East Institute, 12 p.m.: After Oil-for-Security: A Blueprint for Resetting U.S.-Saudi Security Relations — The Hudson Institute, 1 p.m.: Lessons of Ukraine for the Role of Values in Foreign Policy — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 2 p.m.: Forum on the Arms Trade Annual Conference — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2 p.m.: Why the U.S.-Japan Tech Alliance Needs Silicon Valley — The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 2 p.m.: Korea Policy Forum with Former Prime Minister NAKYON LEE — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 4:45 p.m.: Zeitenwende? The Future of German Defense After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, SOPHIA BESCH Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always needs to remind us that “speed is crucial” in writing this newsletter. We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who we will eventually celebrate on Presidents Day.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
