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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
Even with a broad rubric, it’s hard to pin where Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' worldview falls. | Ron Johnson/AP Photo | With help from Connor O’Brien Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’s answer to TUCKER CARLSON’s Ukraine questionnaire gave us more than a peek into the likely candidate’s worldview. It turbocharged a three-way ideological race that will dominate the 2024 Republican race for the presidential nomination. NatSec Daily spoke to potential candidates, campaign aides, informal advisers and experts. They say the GOP will be generally represented in this cycle by factions of “rules-based internationalists,” “conservative internationalists” and “conservative nationalists” — with the last two serving as the frontrunners. There are differences within the camps, of course, and any typology is imperfect. There are also points of agreement among them: Confronting China, securing the southern border and prioritizing domestic concerns are tops for them all. But at a sky-high level, clear differences will be visible over the next year and change. Former Arkansas Gov. ASA HUTCHINSON, who has yet to declare his likely candidacy, is perhaps the sole rules-based internationalist in the prospective field (experts say “liberal internationalists,” but Republicans don’t like the term because of its conflation with American politics). In interviews with NatSec Daily, Hutchinson suggested the U.S. should adopt a foreign policy akin to President GEORGE W. BUSH’s before 9/11, one where alliances are leveraged to uphold the rules of the global game and defend against threats to America interests worldwide. “This is not the time to withdraw when Russia, China, Iran and North Korea pose serious risks for America. Isolationism is not the right path for freedom in today’s world,” Hutchinson said. But this line of thinking is increasingly unpopular within the party. Expending resources to uphold the world order is less desirable than making moves mainly for America’s advantage and/or shifting away from foreign entanglements. Most Republicans are firmly within the other two camps, and their tussle will define the party’s foreign policy. Conservative internationalists — like NIKKI HALEY, MIKE POMPEO and JOHN BOLTON — argue the U.S. should lead the world order for its own aims and deemphasize democracy promotion while promoting sovereignty. Haley’s proposal to cancel foreign aid to countries that don’t support American goals is case in point. Working with allies will be defined by their mutual agreement on objectives and less so on common values and histories. Without like-minded alliances and forward-deployed troops, “we will lose to China and then good luck to those who want to make domestic reforms when China and XI JINPING’s allies have all the leverage over commerce and global markets,” said the Hudson Institute’s REBECCAH HEINRICHS. A strong military — “peace through strength,” goes their mantra — safeguards the world by deterring war. Conservative nationalists — namely DONALD TRUMP — have very narrowly defined American interests. Anything that doesn’t help secure them, whether its long-standing allies or global institutions, are sidelined. They like to think of themselves as descendants of a grand American “Jacksonian” tradition. The views on Ukraine are illustrative here. Further enmeshing America in that fight might bring about World War III or drive Russia and China closer together, so the goal would be to end the fighting now, regardless of what that means for Kyiv. Better to use the nation’s limited resources on confronting China, the fentanyl crisis and internal strife. “The state of our disunion domestically is a far more pressing issue than what happens in other lands,” said DAVID REABOI, a Claremont Institute fellow. Even with a broad rubric, it’s hard to pin where DeSantis falls. Yes, his statement said the Ukraine-Russia war was a “territorial dispute” not in the “vital” U.S. interest, but he never said America should let Russia win and Ukraine lose. And it was only five years ago that he spoke very critically of Russia and America’s need to confront its aggression, asserting VLADIMIR PUTIN only responds to strength. What was politically helpful for the primary, though, was having Carlson praise DeSantis’ answer and old-guard Republicans come out against him.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | CHINA GIVING WEAPONS TO RUSSIA: Well this is something: Beijing-connected Chinese companies have sent Russian entities 1,000 assault rifles and other equipment that could be used for military purposes, including drone parts and body armor, according to trade and customs data obtained by our own ERIN BANCO and SARAH ANNE AARUP. The data, which shows shipments between June and December 2022, doesn’t suggest China is sending a large amount of weapons or that they’re being sold specifically to aid Russia’s war effort against Ukraine. But, as they write, “it is the first confirmation that China is sending rifles and body armor to Russian companies.” Here’s one example: China North Industries Group Corporation Limited, one of the country’s largest state-owned defense contractors, sent the rifles in June 2022 to a Russian company called Tekhkrim that also does business with the Russian state and military. The CQ-A rifles, modeled off of the M16 but tagged as “civilian hunting rifles” in the data, have been reported to be in use by paramilitary police in China and by armed forces from the Philippines to South Sudan and Paraguay. Russian entities also received 12 shipments of drone parts by Chinese companies and over 12 tons of Chinese body armor, routed via Turkey, in late 2022, according to the data. WEAPONS TO UKRAINE: Poland and Israel both announced that they will respectively send MiG-29 fighters jets and anti-drone systems to Ukraine, giving Kyiv what it has long asked for. Polish President ANDRZEJ DUDA said Thursday that Warsaw would deliver four of the Soviet-era warplanes in the coming days, while another eight would arrive after they undergo some viability checks. And Israel approved export licenses that could see anti-drone jamming systems head Ukraine’s way soon. It’s the first time since the war began that Jerusalem approved defensive exports to aid Kyiv’s resistance. After a meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group on Wednesday, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN spoke about the U.S. needing to move faster to arm Ukraine. “We have to deliver swiftly and fully on our promised commitments,” he said. “That includes delivering our armored capabilities to the battlefield and ensuring that Ukrainian soldiers get the training, spare parts and maintenance support that they need to use these new systems, as soon as possible.” IRAN WON’T ARM HOUTHIS: Iran agreed to stop covertly arming Yemen’s Houthi rebels as part of the China-brokered deal with Saudi Arabia last week, the Wall Street Journal’s DION NISSENBAUM, SUMMER SAID, and BENOIT FAUCON report. Saudi and Iranian officials said “Iran would press the Houthis to end attacks on Saudi Arabia. One Saudi official said that the kingdom expects Iran to respect a U.N. arms embargo meant to prevent weapons from reaching the Houthis. A cutoff of weapons supplies could make it harder for the militants to strike the kingdom and seize more ground in Yemen,” per the WSJ. It’s possible that without continued support from Iran, the Houthis would have no choice but to strike a deal to end the war. It’s this kind of possibility that has Biden administration officials openly supporting the Iran-Saudi agreement. IMMINENT ISIS THREATS: The commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East told senators that ISIS-K, the terrorist group's branch in Afghanistan, could be capable of conducting attacks outside the country against U.S. interests abroad in less than six months, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. U.S. Central Command chief Gen. MICHAEL KURILLA testified at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing that ISIS-K is "seeking to expand its ranks ... with the ultimate goal to strike on the American homeland." The group could attack U.S. or allied interests abroad in that timeframe, he said, though striking the U.S. itself would be much more difficult. "It is my commander's estimate that they can do an external operation against U.S. or Western interest abroad in under six months with little to no warning," Kurilla testified. "It is much harder for them to be able to do that against the homeland." IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | POPULISTS BE GONE: As Trump and DeSantis express their Ukraine views, some Senate Republicans voiced interest in having a candidate who’s more vocal about supporting Kyiv, our own BURGESS EVERETT and ANTHONY ADRAGNA report. “I want a RONALD REAGAN when it comes to national security. Peace through strength,” Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) said. He prefers a candidate who won’t “kowtow to the isolationist wing of the Republican Party.” In interviews, Republican senators including Cornyn, PETE RICKETTS of Nebraska, SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO of West Virginia and MITT ROMNEY of Utah said that support for Ukraine was an important criteria for the next GOP president. Still more said they have their own view, and that the aid skepticism from Trump and DeSantis has not moved them. And if Trump or DeSantis wins the GOP nomination, it’s possible that they could sway fellow conservatives toward more of an isolationist stance, slashing current levels of aid to Ukraine. For DeSantis in particular, the punches keep comin’. Vice President KAMALA HARRIS joined in the critique of his comments earlier this week that supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia is not a vital national security interest: “If you really understand the issues, you probably would not make statements like that,” Harris said Wednesday night on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.” The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board, which leans conservative, labeled DeSantis’ Ukraine comments a “puzzling surrender this week to the Trumpian temptation of American retreat.” He may come to regret those comments in the near future, the board argued. “Let’s hope there’s still a lane for that kind of candidate in the GOP primary field, or the country and world are in more trouble than we have imagined,” wrote the board, which hasn’t endorsed a presidential candidate since 1928.
| | | BYTE THE DUST: Chinese officials accused the U.S. of spreading disinformation and suppressing TikTok following reports that the Biden administration said it may ban the app if TikTok’s owner, ByteDance, doesn’t sell their stakes in the company In addition to stopping disinformation and suppression of the social app, the administration should “provide an open, fair and non-discriminatory environment for foreign businesses to invest and operate in the U.S.,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN told reporters, according to the Associated Press. His comments follow reports by the Wall Street Journal’s JOHN McKINNON on Wednesday, which detailed the United States’ latest effort to curb TikTok’s influence in the country, which hosts around 100 million users. The British government announced Thursday that it will ban TikTok from government devices, following similar directives from the E.U., Canada and U.S.
| | | A DRONE’S FINAL DAY: The Pentagon released footage of two Russian fighter jets harassing the U.S. surveillance drone on Tuesday, eventually downing it in the Black Sea, Matt reports. In the 42-second declassified video, edited to show the drone’s final moments, a Russian fighter jet is seen directly approaching the drone and releasing a cloud of fuel as it passes overhead, which disrupts the footage. A second jet then collides with the Reaper, causing the camera feed to be lost for about a minute, officials wrote. The camera eventually turns back on, showing a damaged propeller still spinning. The drone sank 4,000 to 5,000 feet into the waters, officials said, making it difficult for Russia to retrieve the technology if it intends to: “It probably broke up. There’s probably not a lot to recover,” Gen. MARK MILLEY, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Wednesday. He emphasized that the military took “mitigating measures” to ensure there’s no sensitive intelligence aboard the drone.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | CHINA COMMISSION: A bipartisan group of senators will introduce legislation to create what they’re calling the China Grand Strategy Commission, an effort to develop, well, a grand strategy for how the U.S. meets challenges posed by China, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. The legislation, introduced by Sens. ANGUS KING (I-Maine), TIM KAINE (D-Va.) and Cornyn and co-sponsored by a dozen other lawmakers from both parties across the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, intends to set up a two-year body modeled after the Cyberspace Solarium Commission that was co-chaired by King. The commission would include 20 members, including two co-chairs, six members of the executive branch, two senators, two House members and eight people from the private sector. The body, King said in a statement, would “develop and implement an actionable strategy across the entire government.” “We simply cannot afford an ad hoc China policy that lacks long-term vision and coherence,” he added.
| | | PACIFIC TENSION: Ahead of a planned meeting on Thursday between South Korea and Japan, North Korea continued to conduct intercontinental ballistic missile tests, the Associated Press’ MARI YAMAGUCHI reports. The Hwasong-17 missile, which is capable of striking the U.S. mainland, reached a height of 6,000 kilometers and was in the air for more than an hour, according to Japanese defense officials. Pyongyang's latest test landed in the sea between North Korea and Japan and marks continued efforts to respond to joint drills between the U.S. and South Korea. Japan welcomed South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL for the first time in 12 years to strengthen security ties in light of renewed threats from North Korea and close military encounters with China. Yoon specifically wanted a rapprochement with Japan, but it’s no question that the inability to stop North Korea’s nuclear program helped lead to this moment. “The Biden administration, like its predecessors, has failed to curtail North Korea’s decades-long quest for a nuclear and missile arsenal,” the Heritage Foundation’s BRUCE KLINGNER said. But President JOE BIDEN “has repaired much of the damage to alliances wrought by the Trump administration.”
| | | |   | | | | | | — KIMBERLY ROSS, former WeWork CFO, and MARY WINSTON, president and founder of WinsCo Enterprises, have joined Northrop Grumman’s board.
| | | — JOHN HUDSON, The Washington Post: The Ukraine war is ANTONY BLINKEN's defining moment — NOSMOT GBADAMOSI, Foreign Policy: Nigeria’s Kingmakers Are Still in Control — VASABJIT BANERJEE and BENJAMIN TKACH, War On The Rocks: Munitions Return to a Place of Prominence in National Security
| | | — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: The Arakan Army & the Resistance Movement in Myanmar — The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.:Iraq 20 years later: The war’s legacy for Iraq, the Middle East, US policy, and beyond — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: DoD's Office of Strategic Capital: Attracting and Scaling Private Capital in Support of National Security — The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 12:30 p.m.: International Sanctions on Iran are About to Collapse — The George Washington University Elliot School of International Affairs, 1 p.m.: Nuclear Security: Our View from Vienna with Ambassador LAURA HOLGATE — The Hudson Institute, 3 p.m.: Regulatory and Reputational Risk in China: Forced Labor and the US Government’s Contribution to a Global Response Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who thinks we belong in whatever the worst grouping is. We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who is always the leader of the best groups.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
