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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Ari Hawkins | |  A Ukrainian soldier fires the howitzer at the Russian positions on the frontline near Kremenna, Luhansk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, April 5, 2023. | Roman Chop via AP | With help from Erin Banco and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The Biden administration has yet to use its Lend-Lease authorities to send weapons to Ukraine, senior administration officials and lawmakers told NatSec Daily. The U.S. under President JOE BIDEN has committed nearly $35 billion in security assistance for Kyiv since Russia’s invasion, all of it coming from drawdowns of U.S. military stocks or future weapons production. But Congress also gave Biden Lend-Lease authority last year, allowing the U.S. to cut through bureaucratic red tape and gift weapons to Ukraine with the expectation of reimbursement down the line. To date, the administration has chosen not to use that option, mainly because the congressionally approved pot of money that hasn’t been zeroed out yet. “We are prioritizing security assistance that they would not have to pay us back for,” a senior administration official said on the condition of anonymity to detail sensitive internal discussions. However, the official added that the administration is “certainly open to using it in the future.” The focus right now is on “other existing authorities that Congress has authorized.” Another reason for keeping Lend-Lease in the back pocket could be because there’s currently bipartisan support for sending weapons to Ukraine. Should Republican resistance grow, or popular sentiment turn against the war, then it’d make sense to use Lend-Lease to work around legislative efforts to block future weapons deliveries, said a Democratic congressional aide who was granted anonymity to speak freely about the party’s thinking. Whatever the rationale, some lawmakers aren’t satisfied that the Lend-Lease option remains unused. “As our defense stockpiles dwindle, it’s absurd for the Biden administration to sit on its hands and ignore the Lend-Lease authority from Congress,” Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas), who led the effort to pass the legislation, told NatSec Daily. Using Lend-Lease is “a much better plan than continuing to give them away for free.” Questions are swirling within the White House and Congress about why the administration won’t pull the Lend-Lease lever. Doing so would mollify critics that the U.S. is giving away too much to Ukraine. But others say that Lend-Lease wouldn’t address the problem of America’s dwindling weapons stockpile — if anything, it might make that problem worse by incentivizing the transfer of scarce weapons to Ukraine. But to hear the administration tell it, Ukraine has what it needs for this stage of the war, and it will get more weapons and equipment if facts on the ground change.
| | | | The McCain Institute will convene its 10th annual Sedona Forum on May 5-6, featuring lawmakers, journalists, military leaders, business executives, and more. This year’s theme, “Indispensable Power,” will examine the diplomatic, military, and economic means employed to protect democracy, human rights, and the global competitive edge. Established by Senator John McCain, the Sedona Forum is held each spring in the red rock country of Sedona, Arizona, to advance the mission of the McCain Institute – fighting for democracy, human dignity, and security. Visit TheSedonaForum.org to register for the livestream today. | | | | | | | | CALM DOWN, CALM DOWN: Senior U.S. officials are rushing to calm the nerves of frustrated and confused allies across the Atlantic following the leak of highly classified information about the war in Ukraine and other global hotspots, our own ERIN BANCO and Alex report. After the news of the leak broke last week, senior State Department, Pentagon and intelligence officials reached out to allies and partners to calm their nerves about what has been exposed. U.S. officials are scrambling to find the source of the leak that caused a trove of Pentagon documents to be posted on social media channels over the past week. Investigators aren’t ruling out the possibility that an American is responsible — whether that be a disgruntled employee or an insider who sought to undermine national security interests — as many of the documents were only in U.S. hands, a U.S. official told Reuters’ IDREES ALI. In purported Pentagon presentations, officials warned that Russia could dominate the skies over Ukraine as soon as May because Kyiv is running low on anti-aircraft missiles, The Wall Street Journal’s YAROSLAV TROFIMOV reported Sunday night. Ukrainian officials wouldn’t confirm the findings, but urged Western allies to speed up air defense assistance. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Monday that the administration doesn't know if the leak is contained. Biden was briefed on the leak late last week and is kept up to date on the unfolding federal investigation. “The possibility that the documents may be authentic is just devastating because it would be yet another substantial disclosure of classified information. There's a very real possibility that if authentic … this could have a really horrendous effects on the battlefield quickly because it pertains to, or at least it purports to pertain to, actions in Ukraine,” said Rep. JIM HIMES (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. Aside from Ukraine-related intel, the documents cover U.S. efforts with China, the Middle East and Africa as well. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE: Russian troops continued attacking Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, focusing on Bakhmut and Avdiivka with “scorched earth” tactics while conducting air strikes and heavy shelling, Reuters’ PAVEL POLITYUK reports. "The situation is difficult but controllable," Ukraine’s Col. Gen. OLEKSANDR SYRSKYI said, referring to his country’s defense of Bakhmut, which has seen more than eight months of intense fighting as Ukraine struggles to fend off Russian forces. At least seven Ukrainian civilians were killed by Russian shelling over the weekend, as Kharkiv in the northeast and Zaporizhzhia in the southeast also saw missile and artillery fire, the Associated Press reported. Read: ‘A whole appeasement psychology’: How America let Putin off the hook after Crimea by NAHAL TOOSI ISRAEL STRIKES: Israel’s military conflicts continued over the weekend as it sent fighter jets to attack Syrian military targets on Sunday, retaliation for a barrage of six missiles fired from its northeastern neighbor, the Associated Press’ JOSEF FEDERMAN reports. The weekend assaults coincide with ongoing violence between Israelis and Palestinians, with Israel launching airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Gaza last week after rockets were fired at the nation from those areas. That followed violence at the Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, where Israeli security forces carried out a raid against Palestinians barricaded in the holy site. As tensions ramp among Israelis over Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s proposal to overhaul the nation’s judiciary, experts believe he’ll have a tough time handling the chaos. “The challenge is that Netanyahu has to navigate domestic crisis, and he has an international crisis layered on top,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ JON ALTERMAN told NatSec Daily. “That just makes it a trickier line for him to walk.” IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @Lawrence_Ukenye, @reporterjoe and new NatSec Daily team member @_AriHawkins.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | BOMBS AWAY: The Republican Party is increasingly warm to the ideas of invading Mexico and using military force against drug cartels to curb fentanyl deaths in the U.S., Alex reports. From DONALD TRUMP to Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), presidential candidates and prominent lawmakers said it was best to treat the cartels more like ISIS than a mafia. In one policy video released by his campaign, Trump said that if reelected, he would “order the Department of Defense to make appropriate use of special forces, cyber warfare, and other overt and covert actions to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership, infrastructure and operations.” Using military force on cartels without Mexico’s permission “would not be the preferred option, but we would absolutely be willing to do it,” entrepreneur and conservative activist VIVEK RAMASWAMY said in an interview. What the cartels are doing “is a form of attack” on the United States, he added. Other Republicans are against the idea. For example, JOHN BOLTON said unilateral military operations “are not going to solve the problem.” And Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the HFAC chair, is currently against approving an authorization for the use of military force against the cartels. Still, should Trump or another Republican beat Biden in 2024, the chances of U.S. military moves against cartels in Mexico will go up. Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) responded to the report on Twitter, writing “maybe this is just more thoughtless Republican war mongering, but more likely the point is to undermine Biden's current negotiations with Mexico on immigration policy.”
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– TECH COMMISSION HELP: Five lawmakers plan to release a “Dear Colleague” letter Tuesday urging support for the Global Tech Security Commission’s work to develop a global tech security strategy. In their note, Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) and BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.), as well as McCaul and Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.), ask their colleagues to engage with the Commission. “U.S. actions at home must be complemented by allied and partner action and harness the innovation of the private sector if we are to effectively compete with China across emerging technology industries,” they wrote.
| | ‘WORSE OFF’: Assistant Secretary of Defense for Readiness SHAWN SKELLY has a message for Republicans accusing the agency of promoting diversity and inclusion in the armed forces at the expense of military readiness: Their campaign is what’s hurting the military’s warfighting capabilities, our own LARA SELIGMAN reported Sunday. The 2021 appointment of Skelly, the DoD’s highest-ranking openly transgender official, was welcomed as a signal of support by transgender troops now serving openly since the president overturned a Trump-era ban on trans service members. But Republicans in Congress are looking to roll back those changes, and argue that personnel policies such as diversity training, racial justice education and events like a recent drag show on a military base alienate some potential recruits and distract from the forces’ main mission: fighting wars and protecting the homefront. “I don’t know what ‘wokeism’ is, it’s not a defined term,” said Skelly, a retired Navy commander. But “if people understand that they’re not going to get a fair shake, because they come from a specific ethnic origin, or based on their identity, or based on who they love, we are going to be worse off because not enough Americans are going to want to be a part of the U.S. military.”
| | | | GO INSIDE THE 2023 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage, insider nuggets and unparalleled insights from the 2023 Global Conference, which will convene leaders in health, finance, politics, philanthropy and entertainment from April 30-May 3. This year’s theme, Advancing a Thriving World, will challenge and inspire attendees to lean into building an optimistic coalition capable of tackling the issues and inequities we collectively face. Don’t miss a thing — subscribe today for a front row seat. | | | | | | | | 'NOT WHERE THEY NEED TO BE': HFAC chief McCaul made a fresh call to speed up deliveries for weapons sales made to Taiwan during a visit to the self-governing island. The island's defenses are "not where they need to be" to fend off an invasion by China, McCaul said in an interview Sunday with “Meet the Press.” The lawmaker, who led a bipartisan delegation to Taiwan, pointed to trimming a delivery backlog of weapons and ramping up training with Taiwanese troops as major needs. "If we're going to have deterrence for peace, we need to get these weapons into Taiwan," said McCaul, one of the lawmakers who must sign off on foreign military sales. He said the slowness of the U.S. industrial base in turning out weapons "needs to be fixed" and said he'd seek ways to more quickly deliver equipment to Taiwan.
| | | ‘OVER-INTERPRETATIONS’: After French President EMMANUEL MACRON told POLITICO and Les Echos journalists that his country wouldn’t blindly follow Washington’s lead on deterring China’s aggression on Taiwan, editorial boards, European politicians and U.S. lawmakers took issue. “The paradox would be that, overcome with panic, we believe we are just America’s followers,” Macron said in the interview. “The question Europeans need to answer … is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No.” His comments, which followed a meeting with Chinese President XI JINPING in Beijing last week, were subject to numerous “over-interpretations,” PASCAL CONFAVREUX, the spokesperson for France’s embassy in the U.S., wrote in a tweet. Macron has been consistent in his advocacy for avoiding conflict in the Indo-Pacific and has always pushed for European autonomy, he said. “What the Pres is saying: if we cannot end the conflict in #Ukraine, what credibility will we have on Taiwan?” Confavreux wrote. “We seek to engage with China for peace & stability in Ukraine. And the Taiwan issue obviously came up in his talks w/ Pres Xi.” A day after Macron’s interview, Chinese officials said Beijing is “ready to fight” following three days of military exercises in which it simulated encircling Taiwan, the Associated Press’ HUIZHONG WU reports. “Troops are ready to fight at all times and can fight at any time to resolutely smash any form of ‘Taiwan independence’ and foreign interference attempts,” China’s military said on Monday, after deploying dozens of fighter jets and several warplanes near Taiwan over the weekend. The “Joint Sword” exercises, which came in response to Taiwanese President TSAI ING-WEN’s visit to the U.S. last week to meet with lawmakers, were similar to actions Beijing took following then-House Speaker NANCY PELOSI’s trip to the island nation last year. The suggestion that France won’t follow America’s lead angered several lawmakers. Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) said he can’t believe Macron “would suggest the world go down this road,” while Cotton called China’s military drills a “very good example” of how dictators respond to “weakness and appeasement,” referring to Macron’s comments.
| | | |   | | | | | — MATTHEW MILLER is the top candidate to be the State Department’s top spokesperson, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN reports. He was a spokesperson for DOJ and the NSC. — GRACE KIM is now national security adviser for Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.). She was previously a policy adviser in the office of the undersecretary of the Defense for policy. — DAVID WERTIME is now senior policy adviser in the office of investment security at the Treasury Department. He most recently was senior adviser in the Office of International Financial Markets at Treasury. — BRYNT PARMETER was named DoD’s inaugural chief talent management officer. Parmeter was the head of non-traditional talent at Wal-Mart and active-duty Army officer. — DANIEL WHITE is now deputy chief of staff for the secretary of the Army. He most recently was chief of staff to the assistant secretary for manpower and reserve affairs of the Army.
| | — BILL CLINTON, The Washington Post: Why has peace endured in Northern Ireland? Hope and history rhymed. — JASON BORDOFF and MEGHAN O’SULLIVAN, Foreign Affairs: The Age of Energy Insecurity — PAUL SCHARRE, War on the Rocks: AI’s Inhuman Advantage
| | — Polish Prime Minister MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI will begin a three-day trip to the U.S. on Tuesday, which includes a trip to the White House, meeting with U.S. weapon manufacturers and delivering a speech at the Atlantic Council on Thursday. — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 8:30 a.m.: An in-depth discussion of U.S.-China relations with Amb. NICHOLAS BURNS — The Armed Forces Communications Electronics Association, 9 a.m.: 2023 Tech Summit — The United States Institute of Peace, 9:30 a.m.: Looking at Tunisia from all Angles with Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11:30 a.m.: A Conversation on Cybersecurity with NSA’s ROB JOYCE — The Government Executive Media Group, 2.p.m.: The Future of Army Fires and Multi-Domain Environments: How Data Convergence is Galvanizing Future Weapon Systems — The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 4 p.m.: A Rock and A Hard Place: The Russian Opposition in a Time of War with Prof. JEREMY LADD — The Institute of World Politics, 4 p.m.: The War in Ukraine: An Estonian Perspective with Amb. KRISTJAN PRIKK Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has yet to exhaust all options to give us a raise. We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who is always our top production option.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
