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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Ari Hawkins | |  It’s been less than 24 hours since videos of the ruined Nova Kakhovka dam surfaced online, but Western leaders are already naming Russia as the culprit. | Stringer/AFP/Getty Images | With help from Matt Berg (who should be on vacation) and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex The only thing we can say for sure about the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam is that it will lead to more suffering for the people of Ukraine. There are 80 villages and towns in the immediate flooding zone, per the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, requiring the government to provide emergency water, food and other aid. ARIANE BAUER, the International Committee of the Red Cross’ Eurasia director, said the “resulting floods pose a significant threat to civilians, their homes and livelihoods. It leaves tens of thousands in a dire humanitarian situation.” The situation could get worse over time since the dam supplied water to the Russia-controlled Crimean peninsula and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, though luckily the foreign ministry insists the situation there is “stable.” The damage exacerbated Ukrainian pain since the war’s start. Russia has long struck civilian targets in violation of international law, forcing thousands to flee their homes. The civilian death toll, per the United Nations, is around 9,000 — though it’s certainly much higher than reported figures. It’s been less than 24 hours since videos of the ruined dam surfaced online, but Western leaders are already naming Russia as the culprit. “This is an outrageous act, which demonstrates — once again — the brutality of Russia’s war against Ukraine,” NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG told reporters Tuesday in Slovakia. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY was more succinct in his attribution: “Russian terrorists.” Meanwhile, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council chief OLEKSII DANILOV got specific Tuesday, claiming Russia’s 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade was directly responsible. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said Tuesday the Biden administration “cannot say conclusively what happened at this point." However, NBC News reports that the U.S. has intelligence pointing the finger in the Kremlin’s direction. Russia, of course, says Ukraine is responsible. Nothing is confirmed, but the circumstances for Russia’s culpability are there. Zelenskyy warned in October that Russia planned to destroy the dam in a “false flag” operation. Ukraine also apparently launched its counteroffensive in recent days, giving Moscow a pretty good incentive to distract Kyiv (even if Ukraine denies the operation has begun). Indeed, it’s likely the flooding will imperil both Ukraine’s offense and Russia’s defense. It’s therefore unclear which nation benefits more from this disaster.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century security network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | IRAN’S HYPERSONIC MISSILE: Iran on Tuesday unveiled what it claimed to be a hypersonic missile, heightening tensions with the West as Tehran mends relations with Saudi Arabia. The missile, named Fattah, can travel around 15 times the speed of sound and its claimed range is up to 870 miles, per the Associated Press’ JON GAMBRELL. “Today we feel that the deterrent power has been formed,” Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI said during the launch event. “This power is an anchor of lasting security and peace for the regional countries.” It seems Iran is trying to do two things at once: show it can keep its enemies at risk while opening the diplomatic space for a rapprochement. On Monday, Iran announced that it would reopen its embassy in Saudi Arabia after it was shuttered for the last seven years. INTEL ON NORDSTEAM ATTACK: The U.S. had intelligence three months before the Nord Stream pipelines were destroyed that Ukraine was plotting to attack it, the Washington Post’s SHANE HARRIS and SOUAD MEKHENNET report. “Details about the plan … were collected by a European intelligence service and shared with the CIA in June 2022,” they write. The intel, coming from a tranche of documents shared on Discord as part of an alleged breach by Air National Guard member JACK TEIXEIRA, shows that the saboteurs reported to the commander in chief of Ukrainian forces. This is the biggest indicator that the Ukrainian government — and not just some rogue element — was behind the explosions. “The highly specific details, which include numbers of operatives and methods of attack, show that for nearly a year Western allies had a basis to suspect Kyiv in the sabotage. That assessment has only strengthened in recent months as German law enforcement investigators uncovered evidence about the bombing that bears striking similarities to what the European service said Ukraine was planning,” per the Post. BLINKEN TO BEIJING: U.S. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is set to visit China in the coming weeks to engage with top officials, report Bloomberg’s JENNY LEONARD and ANNMARIE HORDERN. Blinken scrapped a February trip to the country, following the discovery of a Chinese spy balloon in Washington. The exact timing for the visit remains unclear and could include a conversation with Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING, per Bloomberg. U.S. State Department spokesperson VEDANT PATEL said they have no travel plans to announce, and told NatSec Daily that the visit to China will be rescheduled “when conditions allow.” The planned visit comes after Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs DANIEL KRITENBRINK and others arrived in Beijing on the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. His visit coincided with the arrests of scores of pro-democracy activists in China, who used the anniversary to organize demonstrations. GREEN FOR GREENS: The PGA Tour and a Saudi-financed gold league, LIV Golf, agreed to a merger on Tuesday, per our own KIERRA FRAZIER, HAILEY FUCHS and JOSH SISCO. The news comes after the two golf organizations have been involved in antitrust lawsuits in the last year. “After two years of disruption and distraction, this is a historic day for the game we all know and love,” said PGA Tour Commissioner JAY MONAHAN in a statement. LIV Golf’s reputation has faced bipartisan criticism for its ties to the Saudi royal family. And for years the country has aimed to accelerate its status as a global sporting hub –– part of a broader effort to sanitize Riyadh's image. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @_AriHawkins and our newest member @JGedeon1.
| | | | GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | 2 MORE: The Republican field will officially grow by three this week, with CHRIS CHRISTIE, MIKE PENCE and DOUG BURGUM joining the race. We touched upon the former New Jersey governor’s foreign policy views last week, so let’s delve into the previous vice president and current North Dakota governor. Pence has spent much of his pre-campaign urging the U.S. to continue supporting Ukraine, claiming it’s all ultimately a fight about global freedom. “If we falter in our commitment to providing the support to the people of Ukraine to defend their freedom, our sons and daughters may soon be called upon to defend ours,” he said in February. He also lambasted his former boss, DONALD TRUMP, for praising China’s leader and supported a congressional ban of TikTok. Burgum has spent less time talking about world affairs. But as governor, he led a trade mission to Japan last year to promote investment opportunities. In January, he blamed the Biden administration’s energy policy for “empowering foreign dictators” and “weakening our economy.” Four months later, he signed a bill that banned foreign governments from buying agricultural land in his state.
| | FRANCE: DON’T KILL EUROPEAN AI: The European Parliament’s position on the EU's proposed Artificial Intelligence Act — which is currently under negotiation — is too stringent and risks kneecapping a potential future European ChatGPT, France’s Digital Minister JEAN-NOËL BARROT told our own LAURA KAYALI in an interview. As an example, he pointed to Google's decision not to launch its chatbot Bard in the EU: "The objective is not to see non-European dialogue systems set up in Europe, but rather to see European ones develop. However, we must take these signs into account and avoid taking Europe out of the technology history." French politicians, including President EMMANUEL MACRON, have called for a middle ground between regulation and innovation in recent weeks. Earlier this month, former Digital Minister CÉDRIC O wrote an op-ed arguing the European Parliament's position on the AI Act "de facto prohibits the emergence of European LLM,” using the abbreviation for large language models.
| | THE NAVY GETS ITS E-6B: Northrop Grumman delivered the first modified E-6B Mercury aircraft to the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, the company announced. The plane allows for sensitive airborne communication, helping the president and his team with command, control and communications. Northrop completed the technology modernization of five kits in about a year, the company said in a statement.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– KOREA CAUCUS FORMED: The Senate has a new bipartisan caucus: the Korea Caucus. The formation marks the 70th anniversary of the alliance between the U.S. and South Korea. The lawmakers’ hope is that the group will improve ties along economic, security, cultural and scientific lines. Founding members include Sens. JON OSSOFF (D-Ga.), DAN SULLIVAN (R-Alaska), BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii) and TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.). In separate statements, Ossoff called himself a “champion” of the alliance; Schatz said Korea was “one of our most important allies; Young said a “strong” relationship should continue; and Sullivan urged that both countries “deepen” their cooperation. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — O.K. WITH THE U.K.: Rep. MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) introduced a bill on Tuesday to make it easier and less cumbersome for the U.S. to import weapons to the U.K. The Special Relationship Military Improvement Act, which comes on the 79th anniversary of D-Day, would provide the U.K. with an improved status under International Traffic in Arms Regulations and cut “bureaucratic red tape preventing us from exporting weapons to one of our most time-honored allies,” Green told NatSec Daily. "Strengthening America’s alliances, especially in the midst of an increasingly aggressive Communist China, is pivotal,” he said. Currently, only Canada is granted exemptions from the International Traffic in Arms Regulations. But Britain’s a close NATO ally and member of the U.N. Security Council, making it plausible that a bill strengthening military ties would gain support across the aisle. The Biden administration has worked to lower barriers for arms transfers to close allies, including with the AUKUS submarine deal and the Lend-Lease legislation for Ukraine. It’s unclear how much support the bill has.
| | | |   | | | | | EUROPE: KREMLIN VIOLATED RIGHTS OF NAVALNY: The European Court of Human Rights on Tuesday ruled that Russia violated the rights of Kremlin critic ALEXEI NAVALNY by refusing to open a criminal investigation into his poisoning, our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports. The court found that “the inquiry conducted by the Russian authorities had not been open to scrutiny and had made no allowance for the victim’s right to participate in the proceedings,” according to a statement. The longtime critic and main political opponent of Russian President VLADMIR PUTIN, Navalny fell ill on board a flight to Moscow from Tomsk in August 2020. The German government said he had been poisoned with a chemical nerve agent from the Novichok group — the same substance used in the attempted murder of SERGEI SKRIPAL, widely believed to have been carried out by Russian security services in the U.K. in 2018.
| | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: Major Gen. PAUL FRIEDRICHS is joining the National Security Council as the senior director for global health security and biodefense, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He was previously the Joint Staff surgeon at the Pentagon, where he coordinated all issues related to health services, served as medical adviser to the DoD Covid-19 Task Force, and provided medical advice to the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. — HILA LEVY is now director for science, technology and workforce strategy at the NSC. She most recently was assistant director for ocean, polar and national security at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. — ALLY SOIFER O'CONNELL has been detailed to be senior adviser for scheduling and advance for First Lady JILL BIDEN. She most recently was deputy director of scheduling and advance at DHS.
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW. | | | | | | | | — DAVID LEWIS and READE LEVINSON, Reuters: Bombing of herders highlights pattern of deadly aerial assaults by the Nigerian military — JAROSLAW KUISZ and KAROLINA WIGURA, The New York Times: Poland isn’t the friend the west thinks it is — JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: This is Ukraine’s D-Day
| | — Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, 9 a.m.: Open Panel with Former Members of the House Intelligence Committee — Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: The stakes at sea: America’s commercial, scientific, and naval roles in a changing global landscape — House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, 10 a.m.: Advancing American Leadership in Quantum Technology — Senate Appropriations Committee, 10:30 a.m.: A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2024 Funding Request and Budget Justification for Capacity of the Defense Industrial Base and Wartime Stockpiles — Center for a New American Security, 11 a.m.: American Power and Purpose — House Homeland Security Committee, 2 p.m.: Transnational Criminal Organizations: The Menacing Threat to the U.S. Homeland — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Center for Security, Diplomacy, and Strategy, 9:30 a.m.: CSDS-CSIS Transatlantic Dialogue on the Indo-Pacific — House Natural Resources Committee, 2 p.m.: Examining Ongoing Cybersecurity Threats within the Department of the Interior and the Nexus to State-Sponsored Cyber Actors | Oversight & Investigations Subcommittee — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: Ignoring Our Allies in the Western Hemisphere: Reviewing President Biden’s FY24 Budget Request — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:30 p.m.: Aligning Transatlantic Approaches on China Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is about to take up golfing. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, with whom we’d happily merge our fortunes.
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