|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  The Biden administration’s views on providing cluster munitions to Ukraine have shifted over the past year. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo | With help from Joe Gould Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The United States is inching closer and closer to sending cluster munitions to Ukraine. A decision on whether to send cluster munitions to Ukraine is on President JOE BIDEN’s desk, and could be finalized this week, two U.S. officials told Alex, LARA SELIGMAN and JOE GOULD. Biden is expected to approve sending the weapons, one of the officials told us. Ukrainian forces are struggling to break through Russia’s front lines during their counteroffensive and officials believe providing the munitions will give Kyiv an edge. Some of the older variants of the weapons have higher dud rates, above 2 percent, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER told reporters on Thursday. While he would not confirm a final decision, he said that if the Biden administration were to send cluster munitions to Ukraine, they would only send the explosives with low dud rates. Congressional restrictions prohibit the U.S. from selling or transferring cluster munitions with dud rates above 1 percent. This is "clearly a capability that would be useful in any type of offensive operations," he said. The Biden administration’s views on providing cluster munitions to Ukraine have shifted over the past year. In December, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the U.S. had “concerns” about sending the controversial weapons, which are banned by more than 100 countries (not including the U.S.) because unexploded ordnance can end up killing civilians. But the administration has more recently leaned toward sending the cluster munitions as Kyiv expends large numbers of its stocks of conventional weapons. A top Pentagon official recently told lawmakers that military analysts had concluded that cluster munitions would be useful on the battlefield, especially against dug-in Russian positions, but they had not yet been provided due to congressional restrictions and “concerns over allied unity.” Late last week, multiple officials told POLITICO that the administration now was actively “considering” the transfer of the weapons — setting the stage for Biden’s expected approval. In a report out today, Human Rights Watch contends that Ukraine has already used cluster munitions “that caused numerous deaths and serious injuries to civilians,” citing a number of specific examples. Ukraine continues to deny any use of cluster munitions. HRW’s MARY WAREHAM told us “the administration has made zero effort to let civil society know what’s happening” on the cluster munitions decision. Wareham, like others we spoke to, learned of it all from public reporting. We asked the National Security Council about that but didn’t hear back before publication. This could prove a political test for Biden. Republicans in the Senate and House support the move, but Democrats largely oppose it. Reps. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) and SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), for example, will introduce an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act that effectively prohibits the transfer of cluster munitions. "If the U.S. is going to be a leader on international human rights, we must not participate in human rights abuses. We can support the people of Ukraine in their freedom struggle, while also opposing violations of international law," Omar told NatSec Daily.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | IT’S REAL: Your friendly neighborhood NatSec Daily anchor has a book coming out, and today the cover was revealed to the world.
|  | The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy after Trump, is my first book. I tried to capture what the debates inside the administration were like as an Israel-Gaza conflict flared up, as the military withdrawal from Afghanistan led Kabul to collapse and as the U.S. rallied allies to defend Ukraine against Russia. (There’s more, but you get the idea.) It’s a book of reporting first and foremost, but also an effort to capture how Biden’s team came together to both move away from the Trump era while holding on to some of its tenets — and also define a Biden Doctrine (my apologies to NAHAL TOOSI). It’s out in Feb. 2024 and, yes, you can pre-order a copy. If you like this newsletter, my guess is you’ll like the book, too. ‘ASSAD MUST GO’: That’s what a Syrian activist told President JOE BIDEN at a private fundraiser in late June, and the president said “I agree,” the Washington Post’s JOSH ROGIN reports. His response to the activists sharply contrasts with the administration’s recent actions toward Syria, such as telling Arab Gulf countries that Washington won’t oppose the leader and refusing to implement sanctions against Assad’s backers. While the Obama administration called for the Syrian leader to leave his post, Biden’s team has been more hesitant as Assad doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. The activist, ALAA TELLO, told the Post that Biden also was sympathetic when she pleaded with him to help Syrians escape Assad’s rule. “He said, ‘I can’t promise you, but I will do the best I can,’” Tello said. “He cared. He engaged in the conversation with a high level of empathy and I felt a lot of hope that the United States and the president will help the Syrian people.” NSC spokesperson ADAM HODGE told us “we won’t discuss private conversations. As we have made clear, we are skeptical of Assad’s willingness to take the steps necessary to resolve Syria’s crisis, and we are aligned with our Arab partners on the ultimate objectives. We will not normalize with the Assad regime without authentic progress toward a political solution to the conflict.” WHERE’S WARLORD: Has anyone seen a warlord around? Wagner chief YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN isn’t in Belarus anymore, according to the country’s leader, and he’s somewhere in Russia. “He is in St. Petersburg. Where is he this morning? Maybe he went to Moscow, maybe somewhere else, but he is not on the territory of Belarus,” Belarusian President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO said, according to Belarusian state media. Prigozhin was supposed to be in Belarus after being exiled from Russia following his failed mutiny against Moscow’s military establishment in June. Last week, Lukashenko said Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus. A businessperson in St. Petersburg told the Post’s ROBYN DIXON and CATHERINE BELTON that Russian security services “returned all his money to him. More than this, today they even gave back to him his honorary pistol, the Glock, and another weapon. He came to take it himself.” Keep an eye out, he could be in any of these disguises. SECRET KREMLIN TALKS: A group of former senior U.S. national security officials secretly met with Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV in April to discuss the war in Ukraine, including potential negotiations to end it, NBC News’ JOSH LEDERMAN reports. That occurred during Lavrov’s visit to New York, four former officials and two current officials told NBC. He spoke with former diplomat RICHARD HAASS, the outgoing president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Europe expert CHARLES KUPCHAN and Russia expert THOMAS GRAHAM, who were former White House and State Department officials now on with CFR. The Biden administration is aware of the meeting, as well as others that have taken place with people believed to be close to the Kremlin, but didn’t direct the conversations. Former U.S. Assistant Defense Secretary MARY BETH LONG, among other former Pentagon officials, has also been involved in discussions, two people briefed on the talks said. At least one former U.S. official has traveled to Russia for discussions about the war. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe and @JGedeon1.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | CANDIDATES SLAM YELLEN VISIT: NIKKI HALEY and VIVEK RAMASWAMY aren’t happy about Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN’s visit to China. Yellen arrived today to find common economic ground with America’s long-term rival. The goal is to convince China that the administration aims to compete without hindering the country’s economic growth. But some 2024 Republican candidates see the trip as groveling. “Joe Biden is falling over himself to make nice with China, and XI JINPING is laughing at us,” the former U.N. ambassador said in a statement today. “Communist China is our enemy, and it will continue to take advantage of U.S. weakness until our leaders take their heads out of the sand.” “It’s shameful that we remain economically dependent on our chief adversary for our modern way of life. We need to think on the timescales of history, not quarterly earnings reports,” Ramaswamy chimed in on Twitter. GOP presidential hopefuls have targeted China and the Washington-Beijing relationship in their early foreign policy messaging. Candidates claim the Biden administration’s desire to maintain open lines of communication with China, among other things, demonstrates weakness. In general, they propose a hardline stance, severing nearly all ties with China –– economically and diplomatically –– while investing heavily in the military to deter an invasion of Taiwan and/or prepare for a war with the world’s second-most power.
| | HURD’S CYBER PLAN: Before former Rep. WILL HURD (R-Texas) announced his longshot bid for the GOP presidential nomination, he spoke with the Post’s TIM STARKS and CRISTIANO LIMA about all things cyber. Here’s the highlights: On China: “The threat of China has solidified into a bipartisan view, and the winner of the new Cold War will be the nation that wins in the tech race on issues like 5G, artificial intelligence and quantum computing,” he said, adding that he’d push other nations to have stricter rules for punishing cyberattacks that come from within their own country. On TikTok: Hurd isn’t fully behind banning the app, which he considers a national security threat, but said “we should have reciprocity with the Chinese. If an American company can't do something in China, then why are we allowing a Chinese company to do it here?” On presidents’ choices: The Obama, Trump and Biden administrations have picked solid people to lead the nation’s cyber efforts, Hurd said: “I wish I could sit and say, ‘Hey all these people were terrible,’ but they put really good people in positions to advocate for cybersecurity policy.”
| | | | JOIN 7/11 FOR A TALK ON THE FAA’S FUTURE: Congress is making moves to pass the FAA Reauthorization Act, laying the groundwork for the FAA’s long-term agenda to modernize the aviation sector to meet the challenges of today and innovate for tomorrow. Join POLITICO on July 11 to discuss what will make it into the final reauthorization bill and examine how reauthorization will reshape FAA’s priorities and authorities. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | NOT JET SET: Boeing and the Navy aren’t getting along, and it’s costing the military essential jets needed to phase out aging aircraft and be prepared for potential conflict with China. The Navy is set to get only 16 of the last F/A-18 Super Hornet jets Boeing will ever make instead of the 20 appropriated due to a dispute over intellectual property rights that’s dragging out negotiations, Rep. MIKE GARCIA (R-Calif.), a member of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee and a former Super Hornet pilot, tells our own LEE HUDSON. Washington has been eager to replenish rickety jet stocks and stave off a strike fighter shortfall with new Super Hornets — featured in TOM CRUISE’s “Top Gun: Maverick” and considered the backbone of the Navy’s aviation operations at sea. But there’s a time crunch because Boeing is ending production in 2025 to focus on new technologies. Congress appropriated funding for 12 Super Hornets in fiscal 2022 and eight in fiscal 2023 for jets the Navy didn’t request. But the service decided to use the deal in a last-ditch effort to gain data rights it says it needs to perform maintenance on the aircraft in case of a war with China over Taiwan.
| | REASSESS ALLIES’ NATO MEMBERSHIP: The SFRC’s top Republican is putting pressure on Turkey to admit Sweden to NATO by suggesting the mutual-defense alliance start reviewing its membership roll. “If you're going to be a member of this alliance, you’ve got to act like a member of this alliance, and that is important for the strength of the alliance. And look, it's no secret that, in particular, Turkey’s been using the accession issue to resolve some unrelated problems,” Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) told reporters today. “That's not the right way to be a member of this alliance. And I have had heated discussions with them in that regard.” Washington has stood firm behind Sweden’s bid, which has been blocked by Turkey for months over accusations that Stockholm has harbored militants from the banned Kurdistan Workers Party. According to Joe, Risch downplayed his focus on Turkey alone — “I don't want to focus on one because then you write a story on that one” — but he stressed that if a country won’t fall in line around accession for a country the rest of the alliance agrees to, its commitment to Article V, the pact’s core mutual defense clause, is in doubt. The comments came after NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG held a meeting in Brussels with officials from Turkey, Sweden and Finland but failed to make a breakthrough. The pressure is on to break the deadlock before NATO allies hold their big summit in Vilnius next week. Risch, who pressured Hungary to allow Sweden to join NATO by blocking a $735 million U.S. arms sale to Budapest, said he’s mostly aligned with Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), who is blocking sales of F-16 jets to Ankara over an array of issues. NO F-16S UNTIL SWEDEN’S IN: Washington shouldn’t send fighter jets to Ankara until the country stops blocking Sweden’s NATO bid, Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL told Punchbowl News. “I’m one of those who are not in favor of the F-16 sale to Turkey until the admission of Sweden gets behind us,” McConnell said. “We had anticipated that would happen in Vilnius.” McConnell’s view aligns with Senate Foreign Relations Chair Menendez's (D-N.J.) hold on the proposed sale of F-16s to Turkey. But the State Department has been working Menendez to get him to relent. It’s unclear if that effort will pan out by next week’s NATO summit.
| | | |   | | | | | RUSSIAN JETS HARASS DRONES: Russian fighter jets flew dangerously close to U.S. drones in Syria on Wednesday, setting off parachute flares and causing the drones to take evasive maneuvers. In a video posted by the Air Force, one fighter jet could be seen approaching an MQ-9 Reaper before veering off. Another pilot flew in front of a Reaper and engaged the afterburner, which increased its speed and air pressure, making the drone hard to operate safely. “These events represent a new level of unprofessional and unsafe action by Russian air forces operating in Syria,” U.S. Air Forces Central said in a statement.
| | | | — Cybersecurity company Blackpoint Cyber has appointed MACKENZIE BROWN as its new vice president of security. She previously worked at Optiv and Microsoft Detection and Response Team. — ERIC WENGER, senior director for tech policy on the global government affairs team at Cisco, has been named to the board of the Center for Cybersecurity Policy and Law.
| | — MATTHEW BUNN, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: The largest danger at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant: intentional sabotage — MEAGHAN TOBIN, The Washington Post: Will China overtake the U.S. on AI? Probably not. Here’s why. — ANDREI SOLDATOV and IRINA BOROGAN, Foreign Affairs: Putin’s security crisis
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:15 a.m.: Assessing the Hiroshima summit — Atlantic Council, 11:30 a.m.: Beyond adequacy: What is the future for international data flows? Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who breaks international law every day in her treatment of us. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, a true global citizen.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
