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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Ari Hawkins, Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Nikki Haley's speech, the first major foreign policy address by a prominent 2024 Republican presidential candidate, stayed on the strategic plane, leaving her to fill out the tactical details later. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt NIKKI HALEY wants you to know that her time in the Oval Office, should she get there, will be defined by her unflinching aggressiveness toward China — in direct contrast to the “moral weakness” that she claims her former boss DONALD TRUMP showed in the White House. Both in a speech today at the American Enterprise Institute and a Wall Street Journal op-ed, the former U.N. ambassador said she would, in general, curb Chinese influence in the United States, safeguard the American economy from Beijing's coercion and retool the U.S. military to deter and, if need be, fight the world’s second-most power. Her speech, the first major foreign policy address by a prominent 2024 Republican presidential candidate, stayed on the strategic plane, leaving her to fill out the tactical details later. But she did put some meat on the bones of her stance, such as her desire to encourage companies to leave China and stop the purchase of American lands by Chinese entities. Haley didn’t break new ground with her policy prescriptions. She made many of these points before, and her overall hawkish approach toward China is to be expected for any Republican (or Democratic) candidate for high office. The main takeaway was how she differentiated her views on China from Trump — exposing a difference within the Republican party on one of the greatest geopolitical issues of the 21st century. She leveled three critiques. The first was that while Trump rightly focused on China’s trade malpractices, he didn’t go far enough. “He did not stop the flow of American technology and investment into the Chinese military,” she said, vowing to end the export of advanced technologies to the country. The former South Carolina governor also blamed Trump for failing to, in her estimation, adequately prepare the U.S. for a possible war with China and deter Beijing from invading Taiwan. Equipping both the American and Taiwanese militaries is key, she asserted, arguing that the weapons-procurement process needed to be modernized and streamlined. “We can’t wait 50 years for new ships and missiles. We can’t even wait five years,” she quipped. The biggest broadside, though, was when she said Trump got too cozy with Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING, who has overseen the forced detention of Uyghur Muslims, the crackdown on Hong Kong’s democracy and persistent threats toward Taiwan. “Trump showed moral weakness. In his zeal to befriend President Xi, Trump congratulated the Communist Party on its 70th anniversary of conquering China. That sent the wrong message to the world. Chinese Communism must be condemned, never congratulated,” Haley said. Critics quickly jumped in to say there were gaps in Haley’s plan. “It was a very hawkish political speech,” said former Rep. CHARLES BOUSTANY(R-La.), who in Congress led the U.S.-China Working Group and out of office registered as a foreign agent to represent an organization funded by Beijing. “It was pretty light on policy prescriptions and it was mostly platitudes.”“By being too superficial and oversimplifying the challenge with China, she risks credibility,” he continued. BONNIE GLASER, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program, added on: “Any effective strategy toward China must be bipartisan and coordinated with our allies,” and she “ignores both these essential components.” But Haley, at least, offered a blueprint. Other Republican candidates will now have to consider her path forward when forming their own.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century security network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | PRIGOZHIN CHARGES DROPPED: It appears to be YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN’s lucky day. Days after the Wagner boss launched a failed mutiny against the Kremlin, Russian officials announced they’re dropping the criminal charges levied against Prigozhin and his soldiers, our own ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH reports. “It was established that its participants stopped their actions directly aimed at committing a crime on June 24,” Moscow’s FSB intelligence agency said in a statement. “Taking into account these and other circumstances of value to the investigation, the investigative agency resolved on June 27 to terminate the criminal case.” Over the weekend, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN agreed to allow Prigozhin to go into exile in Belarus and escape prosecution under a deal negotiated by the country’s authoritarian ruler ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO. A plane belonging to the Wagner Group landed at a military airfield about a dozen miles from Minsk this morning, our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports. Also today, Putin hailed Russia’s security services for their efforts that “essentially prevented a civil war,” saying they acted “clearly and coherently” as the mutiny unfolded, the Guardian’s PJOTR SAUER reports. Hungarian leader VIKTOR ORBÁN sung Putin’s praises: “When it is managed in 24 hours, it’s a signal of being strong,” Orbán told Axel Springer, our parent company. And Wagner mercenaries will hand over their heavy weaponry like tanks and long-range artillery to the Russian military, per VIKTOR ZOLOTOV, head of Russia’s National Guard. The Biden administration plans to target Wagner over its activities and atrocities in Africa, Foreign Policy’s ROBBIE GRAMER reports. ‘PLAN IS TO LITERALLY KILL PEOPLE’: The FBI and Homeland Security ignored a “massive amount” of intelligence leading up to the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol two years ago, Sen. GARY PETERS (D-Mich.) told the Associated Press’ MARY CLARE JALONICK. That’s according to a new report from the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, chaired by Peters, which claims the agencies were aware of social media posts urging Trump supporters to “come armed” and “burn the place to the ground.” One tip they received claimed that the Proud Boys extremist group’s “plan is to literally kill people.” Why did the agencies seemingly dismiss the warnings? That “defies an easy explanation,” the Michigan lawmaker said. While interviewing officials at both agencies, there was “pretty constant finger pointing” about what went wrong, he added, saying that “everybody should be accountable because everybody failed.” MORE THAN 1K AFGHANS KILLED: More than 1,000 civilians have been killed since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in August 2021 — a significant figure, according to a new United Nations report, despite a major drop in civilian casualties over the nearly two-year period. Between August 15, 2021 and May 30, 2023, the U.N. mission in Afghanistan recorded 3,774 civilian casualties, including 1,095 killed and 2,679 wounded. Three quarters of those casualties were caused by improvised explosive devices in populated areas. Targeted killings, ground engagements and aerial attacks accounted for 298 casualties during that time. But there is a new concern, the report said: “the apparent increase in the lethality of suicide attacks since 15 August 2021, with fewer incidents causing a higher number of civilian casualties in that period.” In the first half of 2021, before the takeover, Afghanistan suffered 5,183 civilian casualties — 1,659 killed and 3,524 injured. FIRE TORPEDOES: The Biden administration announced a new $500 million security assistance package, the 41st such tranche since Russia’s Ukraine invasion began. It consists of more missiles for Patriot air defense systems, dozens more Bradley fighting vehicles and Strykers, and more artillery rounds. But as our own PAUL McLEARY reported this morning (for Pros!), the package for the first time features Bangalore torpedoes. The explosives-packed tube was first used in World War I and played a big role in the iconic opening scene of “Saving Private Ryan” to punch through German defenses. In the real world, it could be used to clear Russian minefields and reduce trench lines in the hard fighting this summer. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @_AriHawkins and @JGedeon1.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | ‘WHAT’S A UYGHUR?’: That was Miami Mayor FRANCIS SUAREZ’s response to a question from radio host HUGH HEWITT when asked if he would talk about the persecuted Chinese minority group during his GOP presidential bid. Here’s that brief cringeworthy exchange: Hewitt: Penultimate question, mayor. Will you be talking about the Uyghurs in your campaign? Suarez: The what? H: The Uyghurs. S: What’s a Uyghur? H: OK, we’ll come back to that. Let me, you won’t be, you’ve got to get smart on that. S: OK. LORDY, THERE’S TAPE: By now, you’ve surely heard the audio of former President DONALD TRUMP showing off classified material about an attack plan on Iran (if you haven’t here it is). Trump claims the audio exonerates him, even though he clearly mentions that the document is classified and that he doesn’t have the authority, as an ex-president, to declassify it. The transcript featured in special counsel JACK SMITH’s indictment, but the audio itself adds more inside-the-room flavor to the case that will also be tried in the court of public opinion.
| | SANDBOXAQ GETS MILITARY CONTRACT: Artificial intelligence and quantum computing company SandboxAQ said it won a military cybersecurity contract. Microsoft and Deloitte are subcontractors on the deal. The contract is with the Defense Information Systems Agency, which assists DOD with its global communications infrastructure, per Reuters’ JANE LEE. It’s unclear how much the contract is worth. “Researchers expect quantum computers to eventually be able to break today's encryption algorithms, and new cryptography techniques designed to withstand quantum computers have been introduced to prevent hackers from gathering encrypted data to decrypt in the future,” Lee wrote.
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today. | | | | | | | | SPEEDING UP SALES: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) is launching a new bipartisan “TIGER” task force to ramp up and modernize the government’s process for selling arms overseas, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. The task force, which will assemble experts, hold briefings and issue recommendations for potential legislation, will be led by House Armed Services Committee members Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.) and Rep. SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.). Though the effort is broader than the $19 billion backlog for U.S. arms for Taiwan, those delays have fueled new scrutiny on the State and Pentagon foreign military sales process as well as overlapping efforts in Congress and both agencies to streamline that process. “I’m proud to lead this bipartisan TIGER task force to examine why many of these shipments have been delayed or have seen increased costs, putting the security of some of our most critical allies at risk, and implement legislative solutions to streamline these sales,” Waltz said in a statement.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– PLEASE COOPER-STATE: The State Department isn’t cooperating with a government watchdog on Afghanistan, two senators from both parties allege, and the lawmakers want that to change. “It is our understanding” that “some level of cooperation” between State and the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction has recommenced, Sens. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) and RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) wrote Monday to RICHARD VERMA, State’s deputy secretary for management and resources. But, they noted, “it remains uneven and does not resemble the full cooperation by the Department mandated by SIGAR’s authorizing statute and the Inspector General Act.” “Because of this lack of cooperation, SIGAR cannot guarantee that U.S.-funded assistance to Afghanistan is not benefitting the Taliban,” they continued. They request that Verma send them a list of ways that he’s made State work with the watchdog’s office more fully as well as a briefing to discuss those actions. The State Department didn’t return a request for comment.
| | | |   | | | | | QIANG: DE-RISKING SOWS ‘DIVISION’: Chinese Premier LI QIANG today slammed Western efforts to “de-risk” and diversify away from Beijing while speaking at the World Economic Forum’s meeting of New Champions in Tianjin, reports LILY KUO from the Washington Post. “The invisible barriers put up by some people in recent years are becoming widespread and pushing the world into division and even confrontation,” said Qiang at the annual winter gathering of political and business elites, known as the meeting of New Champions, or “Summer Davos.” “If there is risk in a certain industry, it is businesses that are in the best position to assess such risk. Governments … should not overreach and they should not stretch the concept of risk to turn it into an ideological tool,” the premier added. The comments came one day after North Korean state media castigated Washington for making “desperate efforts to ignite a nuclear war,” lambasting American arms transfers to South Korea.
| | — SARAH GILBERT will become president and chief content officer of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. She succeeds IVO DAALDER, who will now become the think tank’s CEO.
| | — LIANA FIX and MICHAEL KIMMAGE, Foreign Affairs: The beginning of the end for Putin? — BETH SANNER, The Cipher Brief: Prigozhin’s Mutiny: a reminder about analytic humility — Rep. GREGORY MEEKS, Foreign Policy: Anti-China rhetoric distracts Washington — and boosts Beijing
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Thirteenth Annual South China Sea Conference — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: Distinguished Speaker Series: Dennis Wilder on Stabilizing U.S.-China Relations — Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Retraumatized: Assessing the Enduring Impact of the February Earthquake on Northern Syria's Acute Humanitarian Crisis — Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: How should the U.S. reshape its Russia policy? — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: Beyond the Counter-offensive: Where Is Ukraine Headed? — Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.: Stepping into focus: Africa, BRICS, and the war in Ukraine — American Security Project, 12:30 p.m.: Critical Tech and the China Challenge: A Conversation with the Honorable PATRICK MURPHY Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who always displays “moral weakness” during her edits. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is an upstanding moral champion.
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