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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s situation was already tough, especially with hard-right conservatives threatening to unseat him over spending disagreements. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo | With help from Daniel Lippman and Christine Mui Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Even if Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY wanted to work with President JOE BIDEN on his $24 billion military aid request for Ukraine, he would find the matter complicated by an unlikely source: pro-Kyiv Republicans. Those lawmakers in recent days have added stipulations and hedged in ways that no longer make them locks for an “aye” vote. That’s bad news for the Biden administration and the Californian — who now not only has to keep the Ukraine skeptics in his party at bay, but also has to find common ground between the White House and pro-Kyiv lawmakers. Take what Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), a staunch Ukraine supporter and McCarthy ally, told us Thursday. He said he wants to give Kyiv more military aid, but only if the final deal includes a guarantee that advanced weapons like the long-range Army Tactical Missile System will make it to the battlefield. Without that assurance, he sees no point in further depleting U.S. stocks and spending more money to keep Ukraine at a fighting stalemate with Russia. “Why keep giving Ukraine weapons that don’t help them win the war?” the House Armed Services Committee member said during our interview. “I don’t want to give more for a gridlock.” In other words, the Biden administration may not win support from some pro-Ukraine House Republicans until it promises to give weapons that, to date, they’ve refused to provide. The White House has long balked at sending ATACMS because they don’t want them used to strike inside sovereign Russian territory, potentially dragging the U.S. more directly into the conflict. There’s also a numbers issue, as the U.S. doesn’t have many ATACMS to spare. Then there’s Rep. ANDY HARRIS (R-Md.), co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus. On Tuesday night, per our friends at Huddle, he told a town hall audience that Kyiv’s counteroffensive has “failed” and cast doubt on victory in the war: “I’m not sure it’s winnable anymore.” Asked afterward if he’d support more aid for Ukraine, he replied: “If there is humanitarian monies, nonmilitary monies, or military monies without an inspector general, I’m not supporting it.” The House Freedom Caucus member, who has defied his colleagues’ calls to stop backing Ukraine, now says the U.S. should push Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY to sign a peace deal. McCarthy’s situation was already tough, especially with hard-right conservatives threatening to unseat him over spending disagreements (the $24 billion ask for Ukraine is part of a larger $40 billion spending request). But now the speaker has an even harder task making sure the final outcome of negotiations with the White House doesn’t alienate too many Republicans. Nothing’s McCarth-easy for him.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century security network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | ‘A NEW ERA’: As President JOE BIDEN meets with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts in a historic summit at Camp David on Friday, those who’ve worked on issues in the region say it’s an opportune moment for Biden to have an impact, our own ELI STOKOLS, PHELIM KINE and JENNIFER HABERKORN report. “This Camp David summitry — that’s really a big deal,” said ROBERT SUTTER, a former national intelligence officer for East Asia and the Pacific who is now an international affairs professor at George Washington University. “A new era may be coming out of this.” The White House has China and North Korea to thank, with several lawmakers citing the increased aggressiveness in the region for drawing the allies closer together, even as Japan and South Korea navigate strained relations. While Biden has gotten praise for securing the summit, South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL and Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO have also put in the work. “We have cajoled. We have encouraged. But in the end of the day, it was the two leaders realizing for both countries where the opportunities were, where are the challenges, and together standing with the United States that this was a better place to be,” U.S. Ambassador to Japan RAHM EMANUEL said on MSNBC today. HEARTBREAKER, DRONE MAKER: Russia is trying to build 6,000 drones with Iran’s help by summer 2025 –– and eventually surpass Tehran’s own drone-making capabilities. Documents on the program leaked to the Washington Post’s DALTON BENNETT and MARY ILYUSHINA showed the Kremlin’s “engineers are trying to improve on Iran’s dated manufacturing techniques, using Russian industrial expertise to produce the drones on a larger scale than Tehran has achieved and with greater quality control. The engineers also are exploring improvements to the drone itself, including making it capable of swarm attacks in which the UAVs autonomously coordinate a strike on a target.” The drone in question is the Shahed-136, which can travel more than 1,000 miles. If Russia were to mass produce this drone, it would help Moscow preserve its other weapons and boost its chances in the war with Ukraine. However, experts who reviewed the documents estimated that work at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone is about a month behind schedule. Still, Russia and Iran are making progress despite being under some of the world’s toughest and broadest sanctions. MARTIAL LAW EXTENDED IN UKRAINE: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has extended martial law in Ukraine and an order for general military mobilization through mid-November, according to The Washington Post’s DAVID STERN and FRANCESCA EBEL. The extension casts doubts that Ukraine will hold elections this year. Ukraine’s constitution mandates that elections for president and the country’s parliament no later than October 29th, but Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government have stated that holding elections during wartime would be “impossible,” given the amount of territory under Russian control and the sheer quantity of displaced people within the country’s borders. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @ebazaileimil.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | DESANTIS AND THE ‘DECISIVE DECADE’: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said the U.S. is in the “decisive decade” for countering Chinese influence — sometimes echoing the same phrase the Biden administration often uses to describe Washington’s efforts to compete with Beijing. "This decade, I think, is the decisive decade,” which NatSec Daily readers will recall everyone from Biden on down repeats when discussing competition with China. But DeSantis used more aggressive language about the relationship, or lack thereof, he wants with Beijing. “We've got to do strategic decoupling from China. We can't just keep sending them all this industry, have everything important made over there,” he said on The Dana Show today. (Biden et al. now use “derisking.”) DeSantis, who has polled consistently in second place behind DONALD TRUMP among GOP presidential candidates, added that if the U.S. does “what we need to do to deter them militarily, economically, and if we get serious about some of the stuff they're doing culturally, I think we can win the decade.” The governor is set to soon give a major speech on his China policy, and what he said today seems like a preview of his upcoming remarks.
| | | MOSCOW’S MAD AT GOOGLE: Russia has fined Google more than $30,000 for not deleting what it says is fake news about the war in Ukraine, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. A Moscow court found Google guilty today for failing to remove from YouTube what it considers “prohibited information” — allegedly detailing how to enter certain protected facilities — and "false information" about the "special military operation in Ukraine," despite having been ordered to do so by Russian authorities, according to Russian state-run news agency TASS. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has ramped up its efforts to control online content that doesn't agree with its narrative. On Tuesday, social media site Reddit was fined for the first time for not removing “false content.” Earlier this month, a Russian court fined Apple and Wikipedia for similar reasons. Wikimedia Foundation, which owns Wikipedia, has been fined numerous times, but has refused to comply with any of the demands to take down information, according to a spokesperson.
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S TECH & AI SUMMIT: America’s ability to lead and champion emerging innovations in technology like generative AI will shape our industries, manufacturing base and future economy. Do we have the right policies in place to secure that future? How will the U.S. retain its status as the global tech leader? Join POLITICO on Sept. 27 for our Tech & AI Summit to hear what the public and private sectors need to do to sharpen our competitive edge amidst rising global competitors and rapidly evolving disruptive technologies. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | U.S. APPROVES LARGE ISRAEL DEAL: Israel has struck a $3.5 billion defense deal, the country’s largest ever, after getting the green light from the United States, the Associated Press’ JULIA FRANKEL reports. Germany is set to buy the Israel- and U.S.-made Arrow 3, an advanced defense system that intercepts long-range missiles. Israel needed the State Department’s approval for the sale since the U.S. and Israel jointly built the system. “The American approval marks a momentous milestone in the strategic relationship between Israel and the United States,” Israeli defense official DANIEL GOLD told the AP. Some procedural hurdles still need to be overcome, namely approval in both the Israeli and German parliaments. But once through, Israel plans to deliver all components to Germany by 2025. Berlin aims to have Arrow 3 full up and running by 2030. BLENDED-WING-BODY AIRCRAFT: Deputy Secretary of Defense KATHLEEN HICKS is praising a Pentagon deal with JetZero to produce a blended-wing-body aircraft prototype by 2027. Hicks' excitement from the fact that the aircraft could save 30 percent more fuel and make the warplane more capable, such as giving it increased range. The $235 million contract granted by the Air Force and Defense Innovation Unit could change the standard aircraft body for military and commercial purposes. The demonstrator remains unnamed.
| | | | ‘MIDDLE GROUND’ WITH COACH: Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) called on Biden and Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) to find a “middle ground” on the Pentagon’s abortion policy to end the latter’s blockade on military promotions, NBC News’ ALLAN SMITH and SAHIL KAPUR report. “I know that Coach does not want to undermine the readiness of our United States military,” Sinema, per a newly obtained recording, told an audience at the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce last week. “And I know that the United States military and the administration does not want to undermine the authority and the right of any United States senator. What we need are for folks to step off a little bit from their positions and find that middle ground to solve the challenge that we’re facing.”” While Sinema said in a recording that she has “offered” to help with the matter, there’s no end in sight to Tuberville’s holds. The Pentagon has said it has no room to compromise on its policy, prompting Coach to maintain his holds that prevent the speedy confirmation of military officials.
| | | |   | | | | | DO YOUR PART: VoteVets is going up with a tough TV ad calling on Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) to help end Tuberville’s blockade, backed by $100,000 in Tallahassee with plans to expand, our friends at Playbook report. “Rick Scott’s been AWOL on it,” a Florida veteran says in the spot. “Senator, wearing that [Navy] hat doesn’t make you a hero when you’re hanging our military out to dry. Stop the block on military promotions, and let our leaders lead.” Scott hit back in a statement to NatSec Daily: “It’s ironic that a dark money group funded by [Senate Majority Leader] CHUCK SCHUMER, masquerading as a veterans group, is attacking me when Chuck Schumer can hold a vote on military promotions anytime he wants.” Schumer has no affiliation with VoteVets Action Fund, which ran the ad, spokesperson Eric Schmeltzer told NatSec Daily. “It may be hard for liberal, D.C. special interest groups to understand, but it’s possible to support our military men and women and oppose the Democrats’ radical policy of abortion up until the moment of birth,” Scott continued.
| | — ELLA LIPIN is now deputy assistant secretary for the Bureau of International Organization Affairs at the State Department. She most recently was senior adviser to the principal deputy national security adviser. — BROOKE KRAMER is now a military legislative aide for Rep. FRANK LUCAS (R-Okla.). She previously was a legislative aide for Sen. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.). — KATIE PRICE is now executive assistant at American Global Strategies. She most recently was an operations manager for the Trump Organization and is also a former press assistant in the Trump White House. — RUBEN GODDARD is now legislative director for Rep. ALMA ADAMS (D-N.C.). He most recently was national security adviser for Rep. DONALD PAYNE JR. (D-N.J.).
| | — REBECCA BARBER, Just Security: The U.N. should increase support for the responsibility to protect — KATHERINE KUZMINSKI, NATHALIE GROGAN and CELINA POUCHET, Center for a New American Security: The future of civilians in national security — DANIEL RUSSEL, The New York Times: One summit, three allies and a very important message for China
| | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Previewing the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) 2023 summit. — The Cato Institute, 3 p.m.: Worse than futile: what's wrong with using the U.S. military to counter fentanyl? Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whom we don’t support because she never meets our conditions. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whom we unconditionally back in all his endeavors.
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