A ‘different’ CODEL to Latin America

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Friday Aug 11,2023 08:02 pm
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By Alexander Ward and Eric Bazail-Eimil

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stands with Greg Casar.

A congressional delegation of progressives, including Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Greg Casar (D-Texas) is headed to Brazil, Chile and Colombia next week. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

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A congressional delegation of progressives will visit Latin America next week for what they stress is a “different” kind of visit — one focused on shared challenges, ideological kinship and transnational movements.

Democratic Reps. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ and NYDIA VELÁZQUEZ of New York, JOAQUIN CASTRO and GREG CASAR of Texas, and MAXWELL FROST of Florida, along with the chief of staff for Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) are headed to Brazil, Chile and Colombia. There they’ll hold discussions with the presidents of those nations, fellow legislators and civil society leaders, NatSec Daily has learned.

While many CODELs to the region have focused on China’s growing influence, criminal organizations and immigration — and the Biden administration itself has prioritized those issues — the progressive lawmakers want to emphasize struggles echoing across the Western Hemisphere.

“There are political currents in these countries that are happening in the U.S., and those connections aren’t always made,” said a Democratic congressional aide familiar with the CODEL’s plans, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive schedule. “It's worth it to talk about what’s happening there and here and have that conversation together.”

What’s “happening there” is Brazil having its own Jan. 6-like insurrection, the far right gaining influence in Chile and a fight for racial justice roiling Colombian politics. There’s increasing concern among left-leaning American politicians that all these issues are connected by a conservative backlash to democracy. Brazil’s former president, JAIR BOLSONARO, who refused to concede his election loss to leftist LULA INÁCIO DA SILVA and went into self-imposed exile in Florida, spoke at CPAC, the conference of U.S. conservatives, this year.

The lawmakers expect to compare notes about these trends, among other things.

In whispered tones, some in Washington suggest that the CODEL is little more than a progressive lovefest. After all, Lula, Colombia’s GUSTAVO PETRO and Chile’s GABRIEL BORIC are liberal leaders celebrated by Democrats on Capitol Hill. Some Republicans assert that the traveling lawmakers aim to start a like-minded ideological movement to counter global conservatism.

No CODEL member has said anything of the sort publicly and every member, of course, has their own priorities. But there already is talk about seeking a major shift in policy.

“It’s long past time for a realignment of the United States’ relationship to Latin America,” AOC told the Los Angeles Times this month. “The U.S. needs to publicly acknowledge the harms we’ve committed through interventionist and extractive policies and chart a new course based on trust and mutual respect.”

JORGE HEINE, a former Chilean diplomat and minister, told NatSec Daily that the group of progressives could also break past “wrongheaded” rhetoric in Congress on China and development partnerships with Latin America.

“This whole thing of seeing Latin America just as a stage of great power competition, and how the United States can exclude China, has been very detrimental to the image of the United States in the region,” Heine said. “This congressional delegation can help to shift, a bit, that debate.”

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The Inbox

THE OTHER BIDEN SPECIAL COUNSEL: Attorneys for President JOE BIDEN are negotiating the terms of an interview with ROBERT HUR, the special counsel appointed to investigate the president’s handling of classified documents, NBC’s MONICA ALBA and CAROL E. LEE report. The talks, which people familiar with the discussions told NBC have gone on for the last month, have focused on the scope of questions, as well as how, when and where a possible interview may be conducted.

Hur, a former U.S. attorney who was appointed by Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND to helm the case in January, has been investigating classified documents found at the president’s home in Wilmington, Del., and a former office the president used in Washington.

UKRAINE’S MILITARY WOES: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has sacked the regional heads of military recruitment centers, as his government cracks down on corruption within the military and aims to assuage Western concerns about the country’s institutions.

“Corruption in military recruiting will be eliminated. The heads of all regional recruitment centers will be fired and replaced by brave warriors who have lost their health on the frontlines but have maintained their dignity,” Zelenskyy said Friday in a post on X.

The military reshuffle comes as the timeline for training Ukrainian pilots of F-16s continues to slip. They’re now not expected to complete training to fly the jets until next summer, according to The Washington Post’s ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN, EMILY RAUHALA and MISSY RYAN.

Ukrainian and Western officials told the Post that a variety of factors have contributed to the delays, including a need to give the pilots English lessons so they can understand the necessary terminology and the lack of skilled pilots in Europe that can show the Ukrainians how to maneuver the planes.

It’s a rough time for those delays, as Ukraine’s counteroffensive has stalled in recent weeks. Ukraine currently lacks the airpower to fully support its ground troops as they advance slowly into heavily mined Russian territory in the country’s east.  

CHINA RAMPS UP PRESSURE: Chinese ships and planes are increasingly approaching Taiwan’s territorial waters and airspace, increasing military pressure on Taipei and wearing down the island’s defenses, according to The New York Times’ CHRIS BUCKLEY and AMY CHANG CHIEN.

Since then-Speaker of the House NANCY PELOSI visited Taipei last August, Chinese planes have regularly crossed the Taiwan Strait and performed maneuvers off Taiwan’s eastern coast. China has also deployed refueling planes, drones and helicopters to the area. Taiwanese officials told the Times that there have been 1,700 instances of Chinese planes entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, an area that extends beyond Taiwan’s territorial airspace where planes are supposed to identify themselves to Taiwanese officials. China’s planes do not comply with these orders.

To Taiwanese officials, the moves are a sign that China wants to control the airspace between the mainland and Taiwan. “In the past, there was a buffer, our median line in the Taiwan Strait, and that gave enough warning time and strategic depth. Now that’s gone, disappeared,” CHANG YAN-TING, a retired deputy commander of Taiwan’s Air Force, told the Times.

The escalating provocations from Beijing come as Taiwan’s Vice President LAI CHING-TE travels to Paraguay, with a “transit stop” planned in the United States tomorrow.

RED SEA TANKER TRANSFERRED: The United Nations has completed the removal of one million barrels of crude oil from an aging supertanker off the coast of Yemen, avoiding what many feared would eventually turn into an ecological nightmare.

“Years of neglect put the ship at risk of an imminent spill that would have damaged the entire Red Sea region and beyond,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said in a Friday statement praising the offloading of the FSO Safer.

“The Safer was at risk of an oil spill four times the size of the Exxon Valdez disaster. Such a spill would have cost tens of billions of dollars to clean up and been an environmental, economic, and humanitarian catastrophe for the region,” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring CHARLIE BOLDEN, the former NASA administrator during the Obama administration who’s now a consultant at Axiom Space. He’s mostly a wine drinker, preferring a Sauvignon Blanc and a Cabernet Sauvignon — a changeup from his early days in the Marines when he “was losing too many brain cells.” Give him a porter or any dark beer, and that’ll do the job, too.

In the winter, Bolden and his wife sometimes walk a mile through the Crystal City underground to the Marriott hotel bar, where he enjoys an old fashioned or Manhattan and she used to order a dirty martini — what amounted to “olive juice with vodka” — when she was still drinking. That’s an admirable way to beat the cold, if you ask us.

Cheers, administrator!

 

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IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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2024

CANDIDATES BLAST IRAN DEAL: Republican presidential candidates RON DeSANTIS and MIKE PENCE criticized Biden’s deal to free several Americans imprisoned in Iran.

In a Thursday night post on X, DeSantis called the move — in which the five Americans come home in exchange for Tehran’s limited access to $6 billion of its frozen assets and the release of jailed Iranians — a “ransom.” The Florida governor added that the deal will “help Iran build nuclear weapons, support terrorism, oppress the Iranian people, and assist Russia.” He also called on Biden to “stop obsessively pursuing disastrous deals that endanger our security.”

The former vice president piled on: “Biden has authorized the largest ransom payment in American history to the mullahs in Tehran,” Pence posted on X, though he did say “I welcome the release of American hostages.”

The comments from DeSantis and Pence come as Senate Republicans on key committees also slammed the still-unfolding deal and warned it could encourage Iran to wrongfully detain more Americans, as Eric and our own NAHAL TOOSI reported Thursday.

Keystrokes

CHECK YOURSELF: The Biden administration will review how U.S. officials log onto their accounts following the Microsoft breach that led hackers to access the emails of senior leaders, the Department of Homeland Security announced Friday.

The Cyber Safety Review Board will dive into the safety of cloud computing, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!), and will look into how the Microsoft hack happened in the first place. The board will also look into any vulnerabilities with the current log-on process.

The board will send the results of their review to Biden, Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency chief JEN EASTERLY.

HACKING AI: Today, in hotels across Las Vegas, hackers will be looking to expose flaws in artificial intelligence systems — and with the White House’s approval.

“Our framing — and this comes from the president — is that to harness the opportunities of AI, we first need to manage the risks, too,” ALAN MISLOVE, a senior official at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy who helped the hacking challenge organizers develop this weekend’s red teaming exercises, told our own MOHAR CHATTERJEE.

The event reflects the Biden White House’s increasing focus on AI policy. It has drafted an AI Bill of Rights framework, convened tech CEOs and held a series of press conferences on the wide range of threats and opportunities presented by the technology.

 

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The Complex

COOL IT: The Defense Department will consider all its options as it upgrades the cooling system on F-35s, Breaking Defense’s MICHAEL MARROW reports, indicating a development competition may be on the horizon.

Honeywell makes the current Power and Thermal Management System, but it seems the Pentagon is willing to consider alternatives.

RUSS GOEMAERE, spokesperson for the F-35 Joint Program Office, told Marrow “all PTMS options will be assessed to ensure we provide the greatest capability to the warfighter.”

Officials “are very early into the Defense Acquisition System/Process,” he continued, noting that the Pentagon is already engaging with industry on what “the successful development of a new PTMS solution” could look like.

As Marrow succinctly put, the statement “is the closest yet the office has come to stating that a full-on recompete for the PTMS is on the table.”

On the Hill

NO SHOW JOE: When Biden celebrates the one-year anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act next week, the lawmaker who was crucial to designing and passing the measure won’t be in attendance.

Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) will skip the event, per NBC News’ MIKE MEMOLI and JULIE TSIRKIN, a sign of increasing tensions between the potential 2024 third-party candidate and the White House. Last year, Manchin was at the bill signing, with Biden handing him a pen used to affix his signature. And earlier this year, Manchin was at the World Economic Forum in Davos defending the IRA against attacks from European allies who opposed its clean-energy subsidies and made-in-America manufacturing rules.

In a statement to NBC, Manchin called the IRA “one of the most historic pieces of legislation passed in decades,” but said he would “continue to fight the Biden administration’s unrelenting efforts to manipulate the law to push their radical climate agenda at the expense of both our energy and fiscal security.”

Manchin doesn’t like that the administration’s sales job highlights the climate-fighting provisions and not the energy security measures. The IRA has also caused a significant drop in Manchin’s poll numbers back in West Virginia as Manchin mulls running for reelection in the ruby-red Mountain State.

Broadsides

‘WE’RE NOT DOING ENOUGH’: The U.S. isn’t doing enough to stop adversaries from wrongfully detaining Americans, The Washington Post’s JASON REZAIAN told PBS Newshour on Thursday evening.

“It’s a real stark binary choice right now: either negotiating the release of fellow Americans or leaving them behind. Leaving them behind means longer detentions, imprisonments, potentially death,” said Rezaian, who was unjustly held for 544 days by Iranian authorities. “What we should be talking about is what can we do, what will we do to deter hostage-taking in the future? Right now, we’re not doing enough and countries like Iran, Russia, China are doing this more and more because they don’t see anything standing in their way.”

Rezaian, who was complimentary of the prison-release agreement during the interview, is part of a high-level panel that’s considering ways to curb the rise of hostage-taking and wrongful detentions.

Last year, the Biden administration issued an executive order that allows federal agencies to impose financial sanctions or other consequences on the offending parties and authorizes parts of the government to share information with families regarding the individuals’ status and efforts to secure their release or return.

 

HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.

 
 
Transitions

CLARK CULLY has left his post as the policy lead at the Pentagon’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office. On his LinkedIn page, Cully said “I am seeking a new challenge in industry.” Cully previously served as DOD’s deputy chief data officer.

What to Read

The Editors, National Review: Biden’s Crackdown on Investments in China Is Only a First Step

WILLIAM ASTORE, The Nation: The American Military Is Truly Exceptional — at Spending Money

ASLI AYDINTASBAS and JEREMY SHAPIRO, Foreign Affairs: Erdogan’s Post-Western Turkey

Monday Today

The National Press Club, 9:30 a.m.: Why Are They Not Home? Challenges Faced By U.S. Government In Resolving Journalist Hostage Cases.

The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: Prospects for democracy, security, and political reform in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 2 p.m.: Gaining Information Advantage: Alliances and Partnerships.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2:30 p.m.: Previewing the Camp David Trilateral Summit.

Politics and Prose, 7 p.m.: Book discussion on CHRISTOPHER MILLER’s “The War Came To Us: Life and Death in Ukraine.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, with whom we agree about absolutely nothing.

We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, for whom we would start a global movement. 

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
 

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