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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  A ball of fire erupts in Gaza City after an Israeli air strike on October 12, 2023. | Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images | With help from Phelim Kine Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The Biden administration wants Israel to abide by the laws of war as it responds to Hamas’ barbaric attack, but Jerusalem doesn’t appear to be listening. Israeli military officials conceded early on that some of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents would die amid overwhelming force, partly because Hamas places many of their offices and assets near hospitals, schools and homes. But Israel is a democracy, they added, and would work to spare civilian targets — and civilians themselves — as much as possible. A flood of reports challenges Israel’s claims that it’s exercising caution. Mosques, hospitals and schools have been hit with airstrikes, as have healthcare facilities and ambulances. More than 1,400 people have been killed and another 6,300 injured in the retaliatory attacks, according to Hamas figures. That number, set to increase as more bodies are found in the enclave’s rubble, would spike if Israel launches an expected ground invasion of Gaza. Gazans, many of whom don’t support Hamas or its tactics, have nowhere to flee as the strip is under siege. Shrapnel has flown into seven hospitals and 10 U.N. emergency shelters. The situation has gotten so bad that the Red Cross said hospitals, already low on electricity, water and supplies, risk turning into morgues. A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces told us “we are not familiar with a strike that was aimed at a hospital.” Even so, all of this goes against the Biden administration’s express wishes. “If you’re an innocent civilian, you didn’t cause this. You didn’t ask for this, and you shouldn’t be having to fear for your life. Nobody wants to see that happen,” said JOHN KIRBY, the National Security Council spokesperson, told reporters Wednesday. But he added that while there are conversations about ensuring humanitarian aid flows into Gaza, “our focus is squarely right now in these still early hours — and they are early hours — to make sure that the Israelis have what they need.” The U.S. has already delivered ammunition and interceptors for Israel’s Iron Dome missile-defense system. That message of solidarity is what’s ringing loudest in Israeli ears. “You may be strong enough on your own to defend yourself, but as long as America exists, you will never, ever have to,” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said in Israel today alongside Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. Israel’s ferocious counterattack is easy to understand. It suffered the worst single-day loss of Jews since the Holocaust at the hands of a group hellbent on the destruction of Israel, with the death toll currently standing at 1,300 people. Hamas took about 150 hostages, including Americans, carving a scar into Israel’s national psyche. Rockets from Gaza are still pounding Israel, including one that hit a hospital Wednesday in the southern Israeli city of Ashkelon. “It’s crucial that Israel respond forcibly,” MARK REGEV, an adviser to Netanyahu, told Britain’s Channel 4 news Wednesday. “The idea that because Hamas has taken over Gaza, and has turned it into a base of terror to launch attacks against our people, that we can’t defend ourselves, that’s ridiculous.” The U.S., though, is not giving up on pushing Israel to care more about the civilian issue. “This will be an ongoing area of focus between us and them as we continue to work through this very challenging operational environment in which the Israeli military will be fighting," deputy national security adviser JON FINER said on CNN this morning. Meanwhile, mounting concerns from the Pentagon about escalation in the region are looking justified. Syrian officials said Israeli forces launched airstrikes on airports in Damascus and Aleppo today, Reuters’ FIRAS MAKDESI and MAYA GEBEILY report. A person in Syria’s military told state-run media the “bursts of missiles” hit the runways, in what they called an attempt by Israel to distract from its attacks on Gaza. Israel’s military did not comment on the airport strikes.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | NO U.S. BOOTS: As of today, the U.S. assesses 27 Americans were killed in the attack and an unknown number are being held hostage, while 14 Americans are missing. But Biden doesn’t plan to send military forces, including special forces, into Gaza to rescue American hostages, our own JONATHAN LEMIRE reports. The U.S. does not yet know where the hostages are held, three U.S. officials told Jonathan. Gaza is notoriously dense, with a warren of tunnels, and officials believe that hostages would be spread out and likely not held together. U.S. officials also believe the quality of Israeli intelligence in the area has slipped and there has been a paucity of reliable information from the area. Meanwhile, Kirby said the United States, starting tomorrow, will organize charter flights from Israel to Europe for Americans who can’t get out commercially, our own ALEX DAUGHERTY reports. He added the government “is still working out details” of how many flights will take place and what their destinations will be. “We’re exploring other options, whether it’s possible to help Americans leave by land and sea,” Kirby said. FUNDS REFROZEN: The U.S. and Qatar have agreed not to move any of the $6 billion designated for humanitarian aid for Iran, Deputy Treasury Secretary WALLY ADEYEMO told House Democrats today, a Democrat in the room told NatSec Daily. The funds were first freed up in a prisoner exchange with the U.S. last month. But there’s since been pressure from lawmakers to refreeze the funds amid speculation that Tehran played a part in Hamas’ attack. American officials have yet to find evidence that Iran was directly involved, though they cite that years of training and weapons deliveries made Tehran generally complicit. Adeyemo told the lawmakers that the money “isn’t going anywhere anytime soon,” confirmed the Democrat, who was granted anonymity to detail a private meeting. Blinken in Israel added that “none of the funds that have now gone to Qatar have actually been spent or accessed in any way by Iran." The news was first reported by Punchbowl News’ ANDREW DESIDERIO. CHINA’S ISRAEL ANGLE: Beijing appears to be taking it easy on Hamas in its push to shore up global support, hoping to please regions sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, our own NAHAL TOOSI, PHELIM KINE and ANDREW ZHANG report. China’s initial statement failing to condemn Hamas drew immediate backlash from Israeli and U.S. officials. But Beijing is likely making a long-term play: gain favor in the Middle East as well as with countries sympathetic to Palestinians in regions such as Africa and Latin America, many of which increasingly are looking for alternative partners to the United States. Alienating Israel, however, could come at high cost for China. It has lucrative tech-sector trade with the country, often importing more than $1 billion worth of semiconductors a year from Israel. And Beijing’s efforts to position itself as a mediator between Israel and the Palestinians may now be damaged. RUSSIAN ATTACKS INTENSIFY: Russian forces continued a major attack on a key city in eastern Ukraine today after it launched large-scale drone strikes on Ukrainian ports overnight. Ukrainian officials said two dozen missiles hit Avdiivka, a city near the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk, killing multiple people in the third day of heavy fighting, The Washington Post’s DAVID STERN reports. Moscow has tried to capture the city since Crimea’s annexation in 2014, but has failed in repeated attempts to take it. The offensive, which began Tuesday, is “perhaps the largest Russian offensive on the city” since the war began, VITALIY BARABASH, head of the local military administration, said on Ukrainian television. Earlier today, Ukraine’s military shot down 10 drones over the Odesa region, while others hit port infrastructure and residential buildings in the Ismail district on the Danube River, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | ‘NETANYAHU LET US DOWN’: Netanyahu has a lot to answer for and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon, is “very smart,” former President DONALD TRUMP said less than a week after the Hamas attack on Israel. Our own KIMBERLY LEONARD reports that in a speech to 3,500 people in Palm Beach, Fla., Trump directly went after the Israeli leader –– the man with whom he had a cozy relationship as president –– for not helping in the 2020 drone strike that killed Iranian Quds Force leader QASSEM SULEIMANI. “I’ll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down,” he said. “That was a very terrible thing.” Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, drew rebuke from his rivals. MIKE PENCE, who was vice president in the Trump administration, told a New Hampshire radio station that “this is no time for any former president or any other American leader to be sending any message other than America stands with Israel.” Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, the closest challenger to Trump in the primary, wrote on X that “it is absurd that anyone, much less someone running for President, would choose now to attack our friend and ally, Israel.” “As president, I will stand with Israel and treat terrorists like the scum that they are,” DeSantis added.
| | TEAM EFFORT: Israel’s cybersecurity community mobilized to protect the nation from hackers and track down missing people following the attacks over the weekend, The Wall Street Journal’s JAMES RUNDLE and KIM NASH reported Wednesday evening. Cyberattacks against Jerusalem, which is already the most frequently targeted nation-state in the Middle East, have surged in recent days, WSJ reported. Hackers have stepped up probes on Israel’s systems, Israeli cyber leaders said, and dozens of consumer and municipal websites have seen attacks aimed at shutting down the networks. Many joined the all-volunteer Israel Tech Guard, which scours videos and images posted online to search for hostages and other unaccounted for Israelis: “These are horrible, horrible, horrible videos and pictures but someone needs to do so,” LOTEM FINKELSTEIN, a guard member and director of threat intelligence and research at a cybersecurity company, told the Journal.
| | INTEL UPGRADE: Army intelligence officials see the future, and it’s autonomous drone swarms that gather detailed information using advanced sensors and then process and share it using high-powered computing techniques, our friends at Morning Defense report(for Pros!). The Army is pushing to develop new tools including “transformational” deep sensing technologies, quantum computing and hyper-sensitive quantum antennas. That’s according to ANDREW EVANS, director of the Army’s ISR Task Force, who spoke Wednesday at the Association of the United States Army conference. “We’re talking about swarming using autonomy as fast as we can and proliferating it as wide as we can,” Evans said. “We’re also talking about how we manage all of the data, because that’s going to be a tall order.”
| | | | GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | | EGYPTIAN AGENT?: A federal indictment was rewritten to allege that Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and his wife conspired to have him act as an agent for the Egyptian government and its officials. The indictment says Menendez, who until recently was the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair, violated the Foreign Agent Registration Act between January 2018 and June 2022. “The new charge comes just weeks after the Democrat and his wife were accused of accepting bribes of cash, gold bars and a luxury car from three New Jersey businessmen who wanted the senator to help and influence over foreign affairs. The couple have pleaded not guilty,” the Associated Press reports. NO SPECIAL KNOWLEDGE: The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee was referring to public reports when he spoke about Egypt warning Israel of a forthcoming Hamas attack, not intelligence of specialized information. That clarification was explained today to NatSec Daily by LESLIE SHEDD, the panel’s communications director. However, she added that Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) doesn’t believe this information reached Netanyahu because otherwise the premier would’ve acted on it. McCaul caused a stir when on Wednesday he seemed to confirm reports that Egypt warned Israel ahead of time that Hamas was set to launch a deadly attack. The confusion was understandable, as he spoke to reporters right after an intelligence briefing, suggesting he had just heard something more concrete about Egypt’s supposed warning.
| | ‘SHIT THING TO SAY’: Progressive and moderate House Democrats scuffled over the conflict in Israel during a closed-door caucus meeting on Wednesday, with one lawmaker accusing another of saying a “shit thing” about Muslims, our own HOLLY OTTERBEIN, NICHOLAS WU and ELENA SCHNEIDER reported. The exchange started when Rep. SUSAN WILD (D-Pa.) talked to her fellow members about a vigil she attended virtually in the wake of this weekend’s deadly attack by Hamas, six people familiar with the events said. As Wild told fellow House Democrats that she didn’t want any religious community to feel ostracized — noting that Muslim leaders weren’t present at the event she participated in — Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.), a moderate Jewish Democrat and Israel hawk, loudly interjected. Some attendees said Gottheimer said “because they’re all guilty” and others said he stated “because they should feel guilty.” Accounts differ on whether Gottheimer was referring to Muslims or made an ill-timed remark in an unrelated conversation. A spokesperson for Gottheimer strongly denied that he was talking about Muslims or that he said anything about Muslims in the meeting. But others in the room said they saw his remarks as insensitive to Muslims. Rep. GREG CASAR (D-Texas) told Gottheimer that the remarks were a “shit thing to say,” people familiar said. Gottheimer insisted to Casar that the remarks weren’t directly aimed at him.
| | — Chinese Gen. LIU ZHENLI is the frontrunner to replace Defense Minister LI SHANGFU, who hasn’t been seen in public for more than six weeks, five people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Liu serves as the head of the military body responsible for China's combat operations and planning. — Retired Lt. Gen. CLINTON HINOTE has joined Pallas Advisors as a principal. Hinote spent 30 years in the Air Force, spending time as the military assistant to the deputy secretary of Defense and commanding in Germany and South Korea. — Retired Army Col. DERRICK LEE joined SOSi as director for intelligence programs. He was the inspector general for U.S. Army Europe and Africa and before that assistant chief of staff for intelligence at NATO Allied Land Command.
| | | |   | | | | | — Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States: America’s strategic posture — GISELLE DONNELLY, The Bulwark: Can America still lead? — Rep. JOE COURTNEY, Breaking Defense: U.S. undersea supremacy is only growing stronger
| | — The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 2 p.m.: Gaining information advantage: tradecraft and data — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: The strong economic and security partnership between Singapore and the United States Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always says shitty things about us. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who speaks sweetly about everything.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
